Well, I guess I should have been prepared for this possibility all along, but now it appears to be something that we have to take seriously. According to the Chicago Tribune, Luke Harangody is considering the idea of putting his name into the NBA Draft (without hiring an agent of course). Say it ain’t so!
First, since I have said for years that players should always consider making the leap to the NBA if they have nothing to gain from another year in college for draft purposes, I would be a hypocrite to say that Harangody would be unwise to go pro after this year. My feeling on leaving early is that you should always be looking to maximize your draft stock. For some guys, that means leaving after their freshmen year when their stock is at an all-time high (BJ Mullens would be a great example of that). If you are a lottery pick after your freshman year and coming back is probably only going to hurt your stock as scouts get another year to pick you apart, then take the money and run.
For other guys, it might be wise to stay a couple years or even all four years. A perfect example of a guy who made a good decision by staying in school was Sam Young. If he had come out after last year, he would not have even been drafted. Now, he’s a virtual lock to go in the first round and probably going to be drafted somewhere around 20. He went from a guy who would be scrapping to make the league to a guy who is getting guaranteed money for the next few years as a first rounder. Plus, he’s brimming with confidence and ready to go into the league and contribute. I’m a huge Sam Young fan and think someone is getting a steal with him at the end of the first round. He could be like a Brandon Rush or CDR type player, and both those guys have been playing well of late. Kenyon Martin would be another great example. He went from a guy who could barely even play college ball to the #1 pick in the draft by his senior year. If you can improve your draft stock significantly by coming back to college, it’s never a bad idea to come back.
For Luke Harangody, it’s hard to look at him and think that he’s going to be able to do anything that really improves his draft stock next year. Harangody can become a better all-around player (especially on defense), but scouts pretty much know what he is capable of doing at this point. He is viewed as a finished product. If he’s not a first rounder this year, he’s probably not a first rounder next year either. Whenever he decides to take a shot at pro ball, he’s going to be a second round kinda guy. The major internet mock drafts (NBADraft.net, Draft Express, etc) are projecting him as a late 2nd rounder for 2010. That’s about where I’d see him going.
That doesn’t mean I don’t think Harangody can play in the NBA. For the most part, NBA scouts and GMs are dumb. They always undervalue guys like Harangody, and then they’re surprised when he ends up having a solid 10 year career. Harangody can play in the NBA. If Jason Maxiell can play in the NBA, Harangody can too. He’s probably never going to be a starter, but I think he can definitely be a big man off the bench for a lot of teams. He can score, he can rebound, he plays hard, and he’s dedicated to the game. There are all kinds of guys in the NBA who were second rounders or undrafted free agents. When it comes to pro basketball, it comes down to self-discipline and desire. If you really dedicate yourself and act like a professional, you can make it in the league. I have no doubt that Harangody would do just that.
But in terms of his draft value, he’s never going to be a highly-desired commodity. For that reason alone, I can see why he might think about the NBA after this year. If you are going to be a 2nd rounder this year and a 2nd rounder next year, why not get to the league and start working on your game 365 days a year against the best players in the world?? He’s not really gaining anything by chewing up the big men on DePaul and St. Johns for another year. Sooner or later, he’ll need to figure out what it takes to become successful at the NBA level, and most NBA players will tell you that the only way to do that is to get to the league and start practicing against these guys. In the NBA, you have the best training facilities, no classes, all the time in the world to practice, the best trainers and physicians, and all of the latest technology and video equipment. It’s a laboratory for basketball, and you can stand there and shoot jumpers all day long without worrying about having to finish some Philosophy paper the next day. If Harangody is ready for that type of commitment and environment, then he should think about leaving.
I will hold hope on two reasons for him to come back though. One is that he just isn’t ready for the NBA from a mental standpoint. Even though Harangody is an accomplished player at ND, he is much more of a collegiate type than your typical pro-in-training. Harangody is a country boy. Going to the NBA is a whole different world, and he might not be ready for all that yet. He might just like being on campus in the ND bubble. I know he’s close to Scott Martin and some other teammates, so he might want to spend another year with those guys hanging out in South Bend. That world can be very comforting, and he might prefer to do another year at ND and then go out into the real world after that. I think that is going to be a strong pull for him back to ND. If he goes to the NBA and isn’t mentally ready for it, he’s going to have problems right away that will affect his career. I agree with Brey’s assessment that Harangody should not even consider going if he’s not 100% committed to it.
The other reason is that he just loves college basketball and wants a chance to redeem himself and leave a legacy at ND. This past season had to have left a bitter taste in his mouth, and maybe he wants one last chance to make a run at the Sweet 16. I think Harangody has enjoyed his time at ND playing under Coach Brey, and he might feel like he owes it to Brey and the school and his teammates to come back and play his senior year.
Let’s be honest, if Harangody leaves, we are absolutely screwed. Harangody probably knows that as well as anyone. Look at what this hypothetical lineup would look like if Gody leaves.
PG – Jackson SG – Hansbrough SF – Martin PF – Nash C - Knight
Bench: Peeples, Broghammer, Cooley, Brooks, Scott
That team would be lucky to make the NIT. We’d have almost zero inside presence, and we’d still have the same athleticism problems that have plagued us for years. Harangody gives this program a chance at the NCAAs next year, and it would be a devastating blow if he left.
Anyway, should be interesting to see what transpires over the next couple of weeks. I think he’ll be back at ND, but I’m prepared for the possibility that he will enter his name into the draft and “test the waters.” It sounds like he is unsure of whether he even wants to do that, which is a sign to me that he doesn’t really want to leave just yet. Hopefully there’s nothing to the rumors of him leaving, but I’m going to be a little on edge waiting for him to make his decision.
Before I turn it over to them, I just wanted to say that I love this time of the year. This is the best week of the sports calendar....the NCAA Championship game, MLB Opening Day, and The Masters. I love how all these sports have timed the annual calendar up to make that happen. The whole week is one big sports extravaganza. Plus, if you're living in the North, there's nothing like seeing outdoor baseball and those azaleas at The Masters. Spring has finally arrived (even though it's about 35 degrees today).
While I love the British Open and the US Open, The Masters is like Christmas morning for golf fans. I'm going to get in nine holes today just to get myself extra fired up.
Without further adieu, Mr. Dave Loggins!! I'll be hitting this one on repeat all week.
Hello Friends. I feel it is best to listen this song by Kenny Loggin’s brother Dave as you read the Masters Preview.
The Founders
Back in 1934, two men named Bobby Jones and Clifford Roberts found themselves wanting to serve the game of golf. Golf had been kind to both men and they were looking for something to do in return. What they ended up doing was starting the perfect golf tournament and the perfect way to leave the cold of winter behind and move into the summer and golf season. 35 years later our friend George Harrison penned the perfect song for The Masters when he wrote, “little darlin’ its been a long long lonely winter, little darlin’ it feels like years since its been here, here comes the sun.”
The annual gift from Mr. Roberts and Jones has finally arrived. The last year in the world of golf can best be described as a soap opera. A lot of things have happened since Mr. Immelman slipped his arms into that beautiful green jacket last year, but not much has changed. Tiger is still the best player in the world, Phil is still the second best player, there are a bunch of very talented young and unproven players, and there are a few old war horses plugging along. So put on your green jacket, pour yourself a tall Bloomin’ Boom Boom and lets get ready for four magical days of golf.
The Legends One thing that has never made any sense to me about the former champions is why none of them live in Augusta. It is my understanding that once you win you are basically a member. I think if I won the Masters I would retire from golf, buy a house in Augusta and play there everyday. Then I would try to befriend Warren Buffet and ask him for stock tips all day long so I could turn the millions I earned from golf into billions. It would be quite a lifestyle.
Gentle Ben (Ben Crenshaw)- A two time champ and wily Ryder Cup captain, Gentle Ben had the one skill that is more important than any other at Augusta, a silky touch with the putter. Ben hasn’t played very well this year so far and if you are 15th on the Senior Tour money list I highly doubt you are going to do well at Augusta. I am sure Gentle Ben will enjoy himself and putt good. I am less sure that he will hit many greens in regulation.
Ray Floyd- At 67 years old, it is probably unrealistic to expect much out of Raymond. Last year he shot 80-74 which is amazing to me. Augusta is probably one of the 10 hardest courses in the world and at 66 Mr. Floyd was 10 over for two days. Amazing how good these guys are golf.
Fuzzy Zoeller- This is it for Fuzzy. 30 years after he won the first Masters he played in in 1979 Fuzzy is hanging up the sticks. I can imagine he will be sitting on that porch and holding court under the tree drinking a few cocktails this week. I only hope he knows about the Bloomin’ Boom Boom. I bet someone told him about it by now.
Bernhard Langer- I was watching highlights of the greatest Masters ever played (1986) and they were showing Langer’s four fans. They all had on visors that said “Langer Likers.” I searched on both google and ebay trying to find one but they probably only made those 4. It was a special day 23 years ago, but anyone who played in the 1986 Masters is not also going to contend in the 2009 Masters.
Larry Mize- I watched Larry play a round last year at the Memorial (more on this later) and he was generally anywhere between 60-80 yards behind his playing partners off the tee and was hitting woods when they were hitting 6-8 irons into the greens. Last year he made the cut in 7 of 16 PGA tour events he played. Almost all the events where he made the cut were either opposite the World Golf Championships, the majors or the week after the majors. This year he is full time Senior tour. I would be very surprised if he shoots less than 76 either round. On a positive note, he does live in Columbus. Unfortunately for him it is the fake Columbus down in Georgia.
Gary Player- He is like the Energizer Bunny. His contemporaries were Jack and Arnie and yet he is his back for one last year. Thanks Gary for all the years. Hopefully sometime in the next five years we will be able to have the greatest honorary starters of all time with Jack, Arnie and Gary.
Tom Watson- Last week on the NBC coverage everyone’s favorite curmudgeon Johnny Miller was actually being complementary to one of his contemporaries Mr. Watson. He was talking about how good a ball striker Tom was back in his prime. It makes you wish you could go back and watch some of those old battles with Nicklaus.
Book Recommendation: If you are planning on reading any more of this preview and you haven’t read Arnie & Jack, I recommend you read it instead. I will also recommend The Match. They are two great golf books that came out last year.
Craig Stadler- There used to be a time when men were men. They ate steaks, drank whiskey and never even considered going to the gym (they also all had heart attacks). It was probably a glorious time. It looks like it on Mad Men. Craig clearly believed in parts of those ideals. Craig was proudly nicknamed The Walrus for years, but unfortunately the walrus body shape is really a dying breed out on tour as the guys go to the workout center rather than the 19th hole when their round ends. That is why I am such a fan of Colt Knost. He didn’t qualify this year, but he is not giving into convention like stretching and exercise. Keep up the good work men and thank you Craig for setting an example for youngsters like Colt.
Ian Woosnam- I don’t know if anyone is watching this but there is a pretty big controversy going on over the Ryder Cup vice captaincy in Europe. Montgomery is the captain of next years team. He announced that Olazabal was going to be the vice-captian and then Olazabal said he wasn’t. This all caused Woosnam to stick up for Ollie. As a fan of Ollie and not Montie I will certainly be pulling for the little Welshman this week.
Sandy Lyle- Regarding Ryder Cup captains, I am not Europeans are doing Sandy a disservice by refusing to pick him as captain because he doesn’t play much anymore. The man was one of the best players in the world for 10 years and now lost his game. I don’t see how that should stop him from being a captain. If Seve came back as the captain would he be lousy because he cant break an egg anymore? Think it over Sam Torrance.
Sandy has made the cut the last two years so don’t be shocked to see him on the weekend.
Mark O’Meara- While his buddy Tiger was busy winning at Bay Hill, Mark was trying to win on the Champions tour. He didn’t win. Even if he had won, playing 3 day events with the baby boomers is not the way to get ready for The Masters.
The Teens You will be hearing about them this week but there are three potential superstars (who also happen to be teenagers) playing this week. All three have won on professional tours and are probably the first three of the next generation who don’t remember golf without a man named Tiger.
Rory McIlroy- Born in 1989 Rory was seven years old when Tiger turned pro. It is hard to believe he basically doesn’t remember the pre-Tiger era. It is very similar to an article I read this winter about how William Buford (Ohio State freshman basketball player) doesn’t remember Jordan as a Bull. Anyway, Rory is obsessed with Tiger and he knows almost everything about him. I am not sure how the obsession will affect Rory actually trying to beat Tiger, but it reminds me of how Tiger had Jack’s records on his wall. This kid is really good and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him win on tour this year. Paddy is showing the way for all the young Irishmen.
Danny Lee- So far he has become the youngest US Amateur champion of all time and won on the European Tour with a field including at least five of the top 50 players in the world. At 18 there is no telling what he is going to do, but we should be able to find out soon because this is his last event as an amateur.
Ryo Ishikawa- I think it is safe to say Ryo is going to be the first person born in the 1990s to play in The Masters. The buzz about this guy has been building since late last year when he won the Asian amateur and it will come to a head this week. He is only 17 and here he is in the Masters. It is hard to imagine that he will win or contend, since no one has won in his first time at Augusta since 1979, but I am excited to watch the kid make his first start.
The Unknowns These guys are virtually unknown to the public at large. Some for good reason and some will be known soon.
Matthew Goggin- This is a guy to look out for the rest of the year and if you play fantasy golf you should consider picking up Goggin. In the last year Googin’s results have gotten a lot better. I don’t know if it is because he recently moved to Charlotte, but he is playing like a top 30 player in the world right now. I dont think he will be the Australian to win this week but I do expect him to win this year.
Chez Reavie- I don’t really know who was voting at the Country Music Awards this year but it is clear that the people were idiots. Somehow George Strait didn’t win all the awards and Cari Underwood beat Chesney for entertainer of the year. You may wonder why this relates to Chez Reavie. Chez is short for Chesney which is his middle name. I think he is named after the great Kenny Chesney but I don’t know that for a fact. Regarding golf, Chez won last year in a foreign land (Canadian Open) and that is his only top 10 on tour and he has missed 5 of 9 cuts this year.
Drew Kittleson- So far Drew has 3 top 10s out of 8 tournaments this season. This would be extremely solid except these tournaments are all college tournaments. Drew was the runner-up at the US Amateur and currently plays for Florida State. We all know there have been some magical things happen to the amateurs (most notably Matt Kuchar) but if you cant beat college kids you are not going to beat many pros.
Prayad Marksaeng- In the past I have railed against the idiocy of the world rankings because too many guys playing exclusively in Asia were in the top 50. However, this problem seems to be subsiding as more top players are playing in Asia (and Europe) and everyone is playing in all of the world golf championship events. Prayad is a guy I would have been unhappy about being included in the past but he came over to American to play. On Thursday he was leading at Doral and finished 13th. All this said, after Prayad got a special exemption last year and then withdrew, you can be sure that the ghost of Clifford Roberts will be causing his ball to bounce in funny directions and lipping out.
John Merrick- Number 18 at last weeks Shell Houston Open was the hardest golf hole I have ever seen. For those of you who didn’t see the tournament, the hole was a par 4 of 488 yards dead into the wind. There was water left and a bunker right where most players had no chance to hit the green from the sand. On Sunday 57 of the 78 guys who played the hole made a bogey or worse including 4 quads. However, John Merrick used only three strokes to get his ball in the hole. Anyone who can birdie that hole has a chance this week.
Jack Newman- Jack, who won the Publinks to get into The Masters, had a tough start to the week. He is a junior at Michigan State and obviously that basketball game did not go very well. However, I am more worried about his chances for another reason. It is currently snowing in Ohio as I type this. Since East Lansing is about 6 hours north of Columbus I cant imagine he has been able to practice a lot this winter. Of course Jack Nicklaus grew up playing in this weather so maybe he does have a chance.
Alvaro Quiros- Alvaro is the longest hitter on the European Tour and has won three times in the last three years. He is currently ranked 27th in the world, and it sounds like he will become part of the PGA Tour next year if he can (stays in the top 50). I didn’t know too much about him but I read an interview where he said he forgot his hat and belts last week. I immediately appreciated that guy because it sounds like something I would do. Look for Alvaro to make some noise early in the week.
Reiner Saxton- The Golfin’ Dutchmen is making his first appearance at The Masters after he won the British Amateur last summer. I don’t know much about him, but I know Danny Lee beat him in a match last week in the Georgia Cup.
Steve Wilson- Every year the people of Augusta National force me to write about the mid-am Champion. I don’t resent it because the .00005% chance I would ever have of playing The Masters it would be by winning the mid-am. However, there is no chance that a guy who wins the mid-am is going to do anything at the Masters.
Soren Kjeldsen- Soren is hot and by my unofficial count is one of three guys who are coming into the field having won their most recent tournament. I am concerned about him though because he is short hitter and a rookie at The Masters. He is very confident so that might get him somewhere.
Richard Sterne- Sterne enjoyed his debut at the Masters last year so much he set his goal to qualify again this year. Unfortunately, as the best laid plans often do, his plan went awry. It came down to the final two weeks and he needed to win back to back to qualify. Rather than going quietly into the night he won both events. He has also been compared to Gary Player due to his diminutive nature and fire. I am very excited about this guy.
Ross Fisher- Ross caught fire at the end of last year over in Europe and hasn’t slowed down too much. However, he has only played two stroke play events this year in America and neither went very well. I think this guy is an up and comer for the English.
On a sidenote: The English could be in for a wild ride with 7 young players in the top 50 and Andy Murray suddenly becoming the best tennis player in the world. I have so many things to look forward to between now and then but seeing Murray Mound at Wimbledon is going to be amazing.
Louis Oosthuizen- For the true golf nerds out there, waking up Saturday and Sundays and watching the European tour is certainly a treat. Most of the courses are average and the players are not quite as good, but when you have the Scottish accents talking to you it is a pleasure. The emergence of Louis Oosthuizen has made it just a little bit better. His name is pronounced Lou-E OOO-st-hizen pronounced in a quick staccato manner. It is certainly worth the price of admission to hear it announced. Louis played good at the start of the year but hasn’t played as well lately. He also plays mostly in Europe so far. He is a solid young player and lets hope he gets on tv so that we can hear his name, but contending is a stretch.
Wen-Tang Lin- This guy is from China and I really don’t know anything about him, but I want to briefly mention the Olympics since they were in China. I cant believe how much I cared about the Olympics. Everyday that they were going on I would stay up and watch them and then discuss them at work. Now I can barely remember the names of even the biggest stars. How do I always get sucked in to these things like girls gymnastics, volleyball and water polo when I would never dream of watching them on tv in a non-Olympic fashion.
Soren Hansen- I don’t know what happened to Soren’s brother Anders Hansen but I am sure it will hurt his game missing his brother.
The Journeymen Maybe it is just me or maybe it has something to do with how the Fed Ex cup works but there seems to be more guys in the field this year that are journeymen pros. By journeymen I mean guys who play every week contend once and awhile and maybe even win once every couple years. When all the best players in the world are playing though, these guys have to do everything perfectly to contend.
Briny Baird- Mr. P.F. Changs is playing thanks almost entirely due to the new Fed Ex Cup race. He had three hot weeks that led to him getting into the tour championship and then he got into the Masters because of that. He played good the first couple days last week in Houston, but I don’t expect him to do much this week due to his goofy closed putting stance.
Ken Duke- There are about 10 guys in this field that qualified by finishing in the top 30 of the money list and or playing in the tour championship. Almost all of those guys played 25-30 events, kept plugging along, and made a lot of money. However, I don’t see those guys with a chance to win this week. Ken played 33 times last year finished 2nd twice and made $2.2 million. Not a bad life but the fact is there are some guys who are just much more talented than him.
Dudley Hart- Dudley had by far the best year of his career last year. So far that hasn’t carried over to 2009. I don’t expect Augusta National to be the place he turns it around.
Robert Allenby- Robert continues to be a solid player who rarely contends in anything besides the “non-Tiger” events. Making the cut seems very possible but contending is a stretch.
DJ Trahan- These Clemson Tigers have not really lived up to expectations so far they had coming out of college. They have all been solid but not spectacular.
Kevin Sutherland- The only thing I can tell you for sure about Mr. Sutherland is that he does not use a long putter for the drops, and he does not like people who ask him that question. I learned that the hard way.
Jeev Milkha Singh- Jeev is playing good. He won twice in Asia this Winter and finished 4th at Doral. The most important thing I learned about Jeev this year is he is the son of two famous Indian athletes. His dad Milkha Singh is known as the The Flying Sikh and ran in the 1960 and 1964 Olympics. His mom was a great volleyball player. How this will effect his game this week I have no idea, but I was interested.
Aaron Baddeley- Yep he is now a journeyman in my book. He cant hit it straight or very far but he is a great putter. I also continue to be skeptical of the stack and tilt method of swinging. The only time I remember Aaron being in contention while using the stack and tilt was during the 2007 US Open. He hit everything ball left when the pressure was high.
Billy Mayfair- Billy isn’t playing very good this year but you have to thank him for all he did this year by helping to show us all how goofy it is for grown men to wear jerseys when he put on the Cardinals jersey Friday in Tucson during the FBR open.
The oddest thing about it was he chose to go with Hightower (who was essentially benched) instead of Fitzgerald, Warner or James. Look for me in the Teddy Ballgame Jersey two weeks from now at the Draft party.
Talented but struggling As much as any sport, guys can go into a slump and struggle for either a long period of time or just a little while. The slump could be caused by injury, the yips, a divorce, a kid, a lack of desire, or some other crazy reason. Whatever it is, these guys are not playing very good right now, but they have the talent to compete if they get it going.
Stuart Appleby- I always seem to overrate Stuart’s chances because he looks like he should be better than he is. This year Stuart hasn’t even done enough for me to overrate him. He has not played well or often this year because he just had a little baby in October. At least that’s why I assume he hasn’t played very well. One would think it would make you want to play more to avoid all the baby stuff like diapers.
Chad Campbell- We share the same birthday so I don’t to be too hard on the guy, but Chad’s game is not very good right now.
Win a date (Todd Hamilton)- It is not a good sign when “Win a date with Tad Hamilton” has a longer shelf life at Blockbuster than your golf career. I am afraid that is where we stand right now. This is the last year of his exemption at Augusta for winning the 2004 British Open so if you are a big fan make sure you get out to see him.
Brandt Snedeker- Len Mattiace, Adam Morrison, A league of Their Own, and Brandt. What do these people and groups have in common? They all cried during or directly following a sporting event. For Adam, Len and Girls baseball things were never the same again. Is Brandt headed in the same direction? I don’t know but he has played in 26 PGA Tour events since The Masters and recorded only two top 10s (both T9). I like Brandt but I have to say I am concerned about his career right now.
Michael Campbell- Michael is playing because he won the 2005 U.S. Open. My hopes for him are not high because he has not actually finished a tournament this year. He hurt his shoulder, probably throwing the football, and so far this year has three withdraws and one missed cut. Without Doug Ford playing I would say Michael is the most likely to withdraw this year.
Jose Marie Olazabal- Ollie has been battling a case or rheumatism and has only played twice this year missing both cuts. It seems unlikely he will in contention this week but I did learn an interesting fact about Ollie. He owns the record for longest putt ever made. He made a putt on the Concord the length of the entire cabin while the concord was in flight. The ball rolled for 26 seconds and counted as a 9.232 mile putt because the plane was moving. I am not so sure about that counting, but after watching all the records Rob and Big (and Rob and Joe C.) broke I think the hardest thing to do is get the judge to come see you.
Bubba Watson- Bubba is an interesting guy for this tournament. He hits it long, works the ball both ways, hits it pretty straight, and isn’t too bad at putting. However, every time I watch Bubba he manages to make an 8 somewhere along the way. He is like a 10 handicap when he gets off track in the sense that he can’t turn a triple into a bogey, and turns a bogey into a quad. That gets very expensive out on the PGA Tour.
The Lion (Vijay Singh)- I am dressed like Gary Player as I write this, it is over for the lion. He had an incredible run for 10 years, but he just got old. The Lion got along very well as an average putter and a great ball hitter for 10-15 years. He doesn’t hit the ball nearly as well as he once did and his putting is even a little bit worse. The lion is probably still going to win at some point this year or the next and if he keeps playing the PGA Tour I could see him beating Slammin’ Sammie’ss record for oldest man to win on tour, but I am afraid he is done as a top 10 player. So long Lion it was a great run.
El Pato (Angel Cabrera)- I don’t know anything about smoking and having lived in a city named after the guy who discovered tobacco maybe I am a little biased. However, two years ago El Pato was playing great and won three times. Then he quit smoking and he has not come very close to winning since 2007. I don’t know if there is any correlation but something happened.
Adam Scott- A couple weeks ago I was playing golf and there was a guy playing ahead of us. He had on a goofy pair of pants, a white belt, a goofy hipster shirt and a good set of clubs. In other words, he looked like he might know what he was doing. Then he hit his drive and it was a low duck hook. This happened all day and every hole he was playing out of the left trees. So we started calling him Adam Scott because he looked a lot better than he played.
Now that Adam Scott has delved into dating Kate Hudson I would say a major in the next 5 years is out of the question. The putting needed work but instead he is at the beach with Kate. Adam seems to be following the steps of another Australian named Greg Norman where golf is about his fifth priority.
Missing the Easter Service The top 44 and ties make the cut at The Masters. I expect these guys to make it, but will likely be playing early Sunday morning and will be getting ready for home by the time the tournament starts on the back nine Sunday.
Stew Cink- Stew Cink is one of the most “average” players on tour. In almost every statistical category he is just about average. That works out pretty well for him week to week on tour. Unfortunately for him, when the elite players show up, average does not cut it. Another average showing is to be expected but I don’t see him doing more than that.
Steve Flesch- Steve is a poor mans Paddy Harrington. Last year he had two top 10s one was at The Masters and the other at the PGA. I wouldn’t really expect much from Steve based on what he has done so far this year but maybe he is just a majors player. Excluding Monday night, kind of a Michigan State of the NCAA tournament where they always do a little more than you expect on the big stage.
Steve Stricker- Steve Stricker is considered one of the best putters on tour, and he is the first three days and probably Sunday if he is out of contention. If he is under pressure Sunday the ball starts coming off the putter blade right and it gets ugly. I have watched Steve blow 3 or 4 tournaments with a bulky putter. Don’t believe the putting hype.
Ryuji Imada- I don’t know too much about Ryuji except that he is slowly and surely becoming a very solid tour player. It took him 5 years on the Nationwide tour to make the PGA and he has then improved each of his four years on the tour. He hasn’t started out as well so far this year but at 32 I would expect solid play from him for the next 8-10 years. However, since he seems to get better as he gains experience and this is his first Masters I do not expect a lot from him this week.
Oliver Wilson- There are currently 7 Englishmen in the top 50 in the world. Oliver is another one of these guys. However, he hasn’t won on the European Tour or the PGA tour despite many top finishes. I suspect he will be like a young David Duval who once he wins the floodgates will open. However, I would be stunned if it was this week.
The Mechanic (Miguel Angel Jimenez)- Best known on the other side of the Atlantic the Mechanic is a solid player who is one of the leading members of the European Tour. He has had three top 10s in The Masters in the last 9 years and should be a solid bet to make the cut this week. However, no one with a ponytail has ever won The Masters and I don’t expect that to change this year.
The Japanese Cowboy (Shingo Katayama)- As far as I can tell Shingo is the only guy in the field who used the goofy world ranking system to get into the field this year. Usually I am pretty unhappy about it but how can I be mad at Shingo?
Rocco Mediate- It took one of the most memorable and clutch shots in golf history to beat Rocco last June. Unfortunately for Rocco there were very few people who thought that ball wasn’t going to go into the hole, and what the result of the playoff the next day would be. Since then Rocco has played okay but nowhere near what he did at Torrey Pines in June. Much like how Jordan stopped Ewing, Malone, Stockton and Miller to name just a few from winning a title, there is no telling how many guys Tiger will deprive of majors.
Justin Rose- He is looking for his third straight year of leading after the first day of The Masters. He finished second at Dubai but has not finished inside the top 20 so far in five starts here in America. He looks the part but right now he wakes up the memories of Scott McCarron, another first day Masters superstar.
Boom Boom- Unfortunately, this is the last go around for Boom Boom on the PGA tour so if he comes to a tournament near you, enjoy it. I don’t know what else I can say about the man. He has been in contention twice this year and truly gave the fans a thrill. Unfortunately, it was not too be. One time he faced off with the Darth Vader of the PGA tour and the other he blew it himself. Freddie also had a strong internet showing with a youtube clip starring himself and Rafa Nadal. I am a big fan of Roger Federer so this emergence of Rafa has been tough to take. I have always respected Rafa and appreciated that he essentially deferred to Roger even in victory (as opposed to Novak Jerkovic). Now that I have learned Rafa has Boom Boom’s endorsement I am a fan. So thank you Boom Boom.
Regarding his golf game, I truly hope he wins, but I don’t think Freddie is a good enough putter at this stage in his career to truly have a chance. His short jabby stroke on the greens might be okay on slower greens but the devilish greens of Augusta will be too much. Just watch the heart wrenching display from the 14th green of the 2006 Masters if you want an example.
The Shark (Greg Norman)- When he was asked Sunday if he could win this week the Sharks response was, “probably not.” I couldn’t agree more. Even if he gets into contention Sunday we all know how that goes. That said, the man is still one of the most talented players in the world.
Graeme McDowell- Graeme won twice on the European Tour last year. He has played okay this year in Europe. Like most of the players who play mostly on the European tour he has come over to America and played since the match play tournament in February. He has not played well either. Maybe this two and a half month sabbatical all these guys have taken is why a European hasn’t won at Augusta since 1999.
The Famous Mr. Ed (Stephen Ames)- Last year I was sure that the talking horse was on a collision course with a major. Something has happened to his game though and his results are not what they used to be. This is not a Duval-esque collapse just a slight decline. Combined with the sudden emergence of the more talented early thirty and twenty year olds the window for Mr. Ed’s major might have closed.
Rory Sabbatini- You know what they say, “You mess with the bull, sometimes you get the horns.” It looks like Rory learned that the hard way. He was comfortably in the Nike fold and then he started that fight with Tiger and suddenly he shows up wearing some thing called Second Skin. His world ranking has dropped from top 10 in the world to 47th. I don’t know how Tiger hurt his game but I am pretty sure that we know what happened to his Nike sponsorship.
Y.E. Yang- I have said it many times before and I will say it again, if I never leave the greatest country in the world again it certainly wont bother me. However, there are now two reasons I would like to leave, one old reason and one new reason. The first reason is I would like to go over to Scotland and Ireland to play some golf. The new reason I would like to leave is to head over to South Korea to figure out what is going on over there. Ever since the special day August 14, 2003 when I bought the Hyundai Sonata, I have had a special bond with South Korea. As more and more time goes by it is becoming clear they know how to gets things done. First it was the Sonata, then the ladies golf tour, then the Genesis, now they are good at baseball, is the PGA tour next? I don’t know but keep your eye peeled. All this said, I see Y.E. having a hard time at Augusta since he doesn’t hit it that far and is an average putter. It is only a few more years until we get a South Korean Masters winner.
John David Perry (Kenny Perry)- After the nonsense this man pulled last year our friend Kenny asked that we no longer refer to John David as a Kenny. I am sure most of you remember the old commercial that sarcastically said “I want to grow up to be middle management.” I think that was John David in the commercial. I always thought majors were the holy grail of pro golfers. As we all know, once Tiger went out last year it was a free for all at the majors. However, John David decided he didn’t want to play in two of the majors and played 14 holes in the PGA, even though he was the hottest player on tour. You may be asking why, and he kept saying it was because he wanted to make the Ryder Cup (which was clinched in May). John David has proven time and time again that he has little to no interest in winning a major and has proven a few times he doesn’t have the chutzpah to do it either. He will probably make the cut and have a nice solid weekend enjoying the trip.
Paul Casey- We have a family tradition in my family. Every year my dad keeps score in the first round of the Memorial Tournament and every year my mom and I go watch him. This past year the pairing included Paul Casey and Larry Mize. It is always a special day and I end up watching three guys play that I wouldn’t normally watch. Since my dad hasn’t kept score for Tiger, the groups are generally pretty small so I can watch the guys closely. Last year was no exception. Paul’s ball striking was unbelievable and every shot came off crisp. He hit about 15 greens and most of the fairways but he shot 78. It was one of the worst putting displays I had ever seen, including some of my own. I think I counted him having almost 40 putts. I have since done some research and learned that Paul is an extremely streaky putter. He putted pretty good last week, but I don’t know that it will last this whole week.
The Big Easy- I laughed about the three year plan when it was made 2.5 years ago, but slowly and surely the Big Easy is getting his game back. It is unlikely he will ever get back to being compared to Tiger like the “big five” in 2004. However, he has quietly gotten his game back together and is making most of the cuts. He has finished near or inside the top 20 most of the time this year. If you turn your tv on Sunday after church and the Big Easy is on the leaderboard look for him to hang tough. He is still a three time major champion.
The Queer (Mike Weir)- If the Masters was a month ago the queer would have had a much higher place in this preview. A month ago he had finished in the top 10 in 5 of his previous 6 tournaments. Since then he has played four times and hasn’t gotten inside the top 30. I think that he fell apart when he realized that the Columbus Blue Jackets were better than his beloved Toronto Maple Leafs.
Ben Curtis- I am not a marketing person and frankly I don’t really understand why many companies make the marketing decisions they do. My all time leader in odd marketing choices is the great Jeff Sluman and Paychex partnership. However, Ben is also a guy whose sponsor baffles me. For those of you who don’t know, Ben is sponsored by the NFL. The NFL used to sponsor Payne Stewart and now here they are with Ben. Does Commissioner Goodell sit in his office and say to himself “We really need to break into the middle aged white male demographic, how can we do it? We should sponsor a good, but not great, tour player.” I am pretty sure that 90% of the people who watch golf and know who Ben Curtis is also watch the NFL and play fantasy football.
Two other very curious marketing decisions made this year. Verizon wireless has decided to go with Clyde “the Glide” Drexler as a spokesman. I didn’t know who it was the first time I watched that commercial. However, Taco Bell took the cake this year by using Daryl Dawkins and Vlade Divac in a commercial. Does anyone who eats at Taco Bell even know who those two guys are? A star from the 80s and a good role player are the guys they have as spokesmen. Anyways, back to the golf.
It Could Happen These guys are very good and I would not be surprised to see any of them win this week. Only one guy can win though and these aren’t my top picks.
Luke Donald- Luke is playing good right now. He has had a couple top 10s wrote a blog saying he is confident and putting good. I have said it a couple times but Paul Revere said it best, “The British are coming, The British are coming.”
Camilo Villegas (Ka-me-low Vee-jay-gaas)- To be honest I thought Camilo was just another Adam Scott, a man who cared much more for the clothes he wore than what he shot. Then last fall when golf season for the common man had ended and football season had begun, Camilo started winning. He won two of the biggest tournaments on tour last fall and came pretty close to winning the Fed Ex Cup. He has continued to play well this year. I am still not 100% sold, but I am getting very close.
Carl Petterson- My former Raleigh neighbor has not been playing very well so far this year. He is a very solid player though who has done well at Augusta before. I think he might surprise some people.
Boo Weekly- Boo is such a goofball and good interview that it seems to get lost that he is a very good player. He hits the ball extremely well and putts it too. You do have to question the desire of a guy who has stated on numerous occasions that he is only trying to make enough money to retire so he can hunt and fish. That is actually a normal plan most people have at their jobs, but when other guys are actually trying to win the tournaments you have to think it is a disadvantage.
The Scientist (Robert Karlsson)- If you are wondering who the 9th ranked player in the world is and you guessed Robert Karlsson you are correct. The Scientist, as he is known in Europe, is the Swedish Vijay Singh. At the tender age of 39 he is playing the best golf of his life and won the Order of Merit last year. He doesn’t play that often in America but he played well in all four majors last year. He has played in America the last three events so he is probably over the initial shock of being able to eat good food and have ice in his drink. I look for him to play solidly this week.
Justin Leonard- I really don’t know what to think about Justin. Here is a guy who won the US Amateur (in Muirfield), won a major at 25, made one of the biggest putts in Ryder Cup history and should have won the 2004 PGA, yet he has never been one of the elite players. This year he has played pretty good and is ranked 26th in the world. Convential wisdom is Augusta National is too long for him to contend but he would fit the mold of an Immelman, Weir, Johnson type winner. If the wind blows give him a chance.
Trevor Immelman- Even though he has a great name I don’t see much of a chance for Trevor to win this year. In the history of the Masters there have been 3 guys who have won back to back titles. Two are the best two players ever and one is a six time major champion who now resides in the announcers booth. Aside from that, Trevor has not played very well this year outside of South Africa, which isn’t doing much good for him in Georgia.
Hunter Mahan- After he made the putt on 17 at the Ryder Cup I really thought Hunter might come out hot to start the year. It hasn’t happened that way but he is starting to trend the right way and finished 6th last week. He has too much talent not to start winning and contending more.
Jim Furyk- Could he find his game this week? Sure. So far this year though Jim has been nowhere near his top form so I have no reason to think he would be substantially better this week. He has one good finish this week and it was largely the result of a back nine charge after he was out of the tournament at Doral. He is too good for me to surprised if he plays good, but it would raise my eyebrows a little.
Tim Clark- If you were not convinced of the power of Tiger you should have been in Raleigh the day after Tim Clark, an NC State alum, beat Tiger in match play this year. Tim is the all-time money leader on tour without a win, has played for two President Cup teams and finished second in the 2006 Masters, but the only thing most people (at least the ones who call sports talk radio) knew about him was he beat Tiger in one match. He has the game to win and has played well at Augusta before but the list of guys who have made The Masters their first win is short.
K.J Choi- One year ago, I was certain K.J. was going to win a major within the calendar year unless Tiger kept him from it. Now I am less sure but he still has the game. However, as I have discussed in previous years, people who try non-conventional putting methods are trying them for a reason, and it is not because they are putting so good conventionally. Every guy on tour is a very good putter but some guys are great and some guys are only very good. I am afraid K.J. is only very good. For him to have a chance this week he needs the wind to come up and maybe some bad weather so getting the ball to the green becomes tougher and more important than getting it in the hole once it is on the green.
Andres Romero- Every time I look at pgatour.com I make sure to check out the adventure Andres had that day. No one makes more bogeys or worse and nobody makes more birdies than Andres. Depending on the weather and other factors, I could see Andres making a big run on the back with 5 or 6 birdies to win (like he almost did two years ago at the British). On the other hand he could make 5 doubles on Thursday and shoot 82. That’s the beauty of Andres.
The Top 16 As always the top 16 and ties make next years Masters.
16) Marty Kaymer- The “Langer Likers” have had to wait awhile for the next great German golfer to come along. Fortunately for them, he has arrived in the form of Mr. Kaymer. I have very high hopes for the young man of only 24 years and so far he has done nothing to let me down. He won twice on the European tour last year and has played solidly if not spectacularly so far this year including a second at Abu Dhabi as Paul Casey held on to win. Germany, welcome back to big time golf.
15) Sean O’Hair- For three days during Bay Hill Sean was the best player in the world. Then came Sunday and he had to look Tiger in the face. For the first six holes he looked like he had forgotten the game. To his credit he hung tough on the back nine for awhile and then hit a solid shot on 16 that came up just a little bit short and Tiger made a great putt on him on 18. Sean is a guy to look out for this year and in the future.
14) Sergio- Of all the things that happened in golf last year Vijay and Sergio both making 40 foot putts on the same hole in a playoff at the Barclay’s was the most unlikely. I am not the biggest fan of Sergio’s but over the last 18 months he has become one of the best players in the world. Every major he seems to be hanging around the lead all week and has a total of 14 top 10s in majors. Eventually he probably will win one. However, he hasn’t played very well the last few weeks or the past few Masters so this isn’t going to be the one for him.
Looking ahead, as we head back to the Black for the US Open in June it would be a great story if a more mature Sergio went back and won at the site where he acted like the biggest baby of his often baby acting career.
13) Lee Westwood- For years people have promoted Lee Westwood as a potential sleeper in every major that got started. However, the pundits have moved onto some other guys they love and Lee has gotten better. As many of you remember Lee played the final round at last years US Open with Tiger and had a putt to join the now famous playoff between Tiger and Rocco. He has played solid this year and coming off of a tie for 11th last year I look for Lee to have another solid showing.
12) Dustin Johnson- The Bengals are learning the hard way that football players from Coastal Carolina are not the way to get to the super bowl. However, Coastal Carolina is a great place to play golf and Dustin Johnson is proving that to us. In only his second year on tour Dustin has won twice and is already inside the top 50 in the world.
11) Padraig Harrington- Here we sit halfway home to the Paddy Slam. When Tiger went down last June it was really three men who became stars the rest of the summer. The media was hoping that some young guys would step up and AK23 and Camilo did for the most part. No one thought that Paddy would rise and become the second best player in the world (at least in my rankings). However, the Irishman with the high pitched voice won two majors in a row. I don’t really know what to think about Padraig because he has not played very well this year but he didn’t play particularly well last year other than the two majors he won. The man is solid as a rock and I wouldn’t be at all surprised when I turn my tv on Sunday afternoon to see Paddys name right on the bottom of the first page of the leader board waiting to make a charge.
10) Zach Johnson- Two years ago when Zach won the Masters I was happy for the guy. He is from the Midwest, represents an accounting firm on his shirt, and went to college at Drake University, the same school as a friend of mine who hosts me during the Memorial each year. This all changed during last years Memorial. I had been out on the course and arrived back to my friend’s house just as Zach was playing that hole. My friend said, “put on this Drake shirt and go cheer for Zach when he walks off the green.” Of course I thought this was a good idea and complied. So I walked over to the first green and as Zach walked off the green I started to cheer for him yelling, “Go Drake, Yea Bulldogs” and so on and so forth all wearing the Drake shirt. One would think a man who went to a college of 3,200 students in Iowa would be pumped to see a fan so far from the school. Apparently Mr. Johnson was not amused as he walked right past me. Stunned I turned to my friend and we decided to walk up the second hole with Mr. Johnson. There were somewhere between 3-6 fans around the second green so I got right up by the ropes where the players walked off and got ready to high five this Drake legend while wearing a Drake shirt. After the players finished on the next hole I again started with the yelling and cheering for Drake. I knew Zach would at least give a nod. However, as Zach walked over he put his eyes on the ground and kept walking right past me. My heart wasn’t broken but what if that was a little kid? God might be on Zach’s side but I am not.
9) Pat Perez- Many people who know me may be surprised to read this but over the last 2 years or so I have become convinced that it is much more likely that a man will become successful if he is married than if he is not. If you are looking for evidence look no further than Pat Perez. Everything I had ever read about Pat was he enjoyed a party as much as the next guy. He was always very talented but never won. Then he got married last winter and suddenly he is playing much better and has a win under his belt. He is likely not allowed to go out like he used to and it is probably good for his game.
8) Nick Watney- Every week of 2009 you turn on your television (or internet) and there is Nick Watney’s name on your leaderboard. He has played great all winter with a win in San Diego, a second at Doral and a 4th at Bay hill. Johnny Miller described him as looking like a deer in headlights no less than 10 times during the final round at Doral but he hung tough with Fat Phil all day. It is good to have a young American playing so good.
7) Retief Goosen- Retief Goosen made the fashion statement of the year on tour this year when he did his best to dress for “To Catch a Predator.” He has also turned his game around this year. Retief has won in both Africa and America so far this year and has historically been quite strong on the lush green fairways in Augusta. I hope Retief wears those sunglasses but I am almost certain we will be seeing him teeing off late on Sunday.
6) Not so Fat Phil- If this is your first preview one thing you can be sure of is you wont be reading many positive words about the man who plays left handed. So I reluctantly acknowledge that Phil has lost a decent amount of weight the last couple years and when the U.S. Open returns to Bethpage Black (The Black) this year his boobs wont be bouncing around in a turtleneck like they were in 2002. All that said, Phil is still the jerk he has always been and nothing proves it more than what he did at Riviera this year. The great Boom Boom and Phil were in the final group and dueling down the stretch. Phil was all over the map and Freddie was looking good. They arrived at the 16th tee tied. Freddie had the honor and teed off first. He hit a nice shot about 15 feet from the green. Then Fat Phil clearly asked him something and I suspect that the question was “what club did you hit?” This is clearly a violation of the rules, but Boom Boom being the nice guy that he is told Phil the answer. Phil then proceeded to get lucky and hit a good shot to 3 feet. Freddie missed and Phil made to take a one shot lead and that was it. Phil went on to win and Boom Boom was left knowing he was the better man.
Due to Boom Boom’s generosity Phil is now playing very good (although a little inconsistent) and should really be a factor down the stretch. He might even be leading on Sunday. However, he will step up to the 16th tee and he won’t know what club to hit. Freddie won’t be there to tell him and a certain bogey or worse will follow.
5) Steely (Henrik Stenson)- The man of steel is on his way to becoming a staple in the top five of the world rankings. So far this year he has played six times on the PGA and European tours combined and has three top 3’s. Additionally he finished 3rd and 4th in the last two majors of 2008. Yet the only thing most know about the man is he hit a shot in his underwear at Doral. If the man of steel is wearing green Sunday night don’t be surprised and get ready for the Swede to enter the race for second best player in the world later this summer.
4) Ian Poulter- I could not possibly be higher on Ian. Even though he didn’t end up winning he showed me all I needed to see last year during the British Open. He then followed it up with strong showing at the Ryder Cup. I have just one apprehension for Ian and that is the clothes he wears. I have a theory that the golf gods have a certain type of wardrobe they prefer out of their golfers and it is a more traditional look than Ian usually embraces. My personal feeling is the golf gods like checkered or solid colored pants and a collared shirt. The two most glaring examples of the golf gods penalizing people for their brazen disregard of the dress code is the career of David Duval and the 2007 US Open. In regards to Mr. Duval he was the one who started this mock neck, no collar trend, and the golf gods haven’t ever let him live it down. The 2007 US Open was without a doubt Tigers to lose. He got the lead in the final round and I expected him to cruise to the title like he always does. However, he was wearing the worst shirt Tiger has ever worn and the golf gods spoke. Angel Cabrera should have thanked Nike’s goofy golf fashion department for that title. So if Ian wears reasonable clothes all week look out. I would not be surprised at all if he wins the U.S. Open or British either. Especially the British Open where the golf gods have a little more liberal wardrobe policy.
3) AK23 (Anthony Kim)- I have been a fan of AK since 2005 and I see no reason to change that stance now. AK has not had a great start to the year, but I think he has been getting ready for the breakout we expected. AK could be the guy to challenge Tiger for the next ten years. For that to happen, someone is going to have to be cocky and good. Hopefully this is the guy. It would be special to watch.
2) Tiger- In my book until Tiger wins more than 18 majors he will be considered the second best player of all time. I am sure for some he is already considered the best player and to some it will take more than that. Early in his career, one of the criticisms of Tiger when compared with Jack is his lack of seconds in majors since Jack had 19. It seems in recent years Tiger has set out to break even that record. I could talk all day about the man who will one day be considered the best this game has ever seen but if he gets off to a good start on Thursday the field is in serious trouble. If he lays back and tries to not to shoot himself out of it Thursday and then lurks up the leader board all weekend he can be beat.
1) Geoff Ogilvy- I have been a fan of Mr. Ogilvy since I watched him in the 2004 U.S. Open hitting pitch shots for hours at the range. I became an even bigger when he was involved in one of the more amusing U.S. Open finishes in 2006 even though he was just sitting calmly drinking a Fosters watching the Mickel-slam fall apart before our very eyes. Since then he had played solid. Then all of the sudden the calm Australian started winning this year and looks poised to take over as the world’s second best player. No Australian has ever won at Augusta but that has to end sometime and I see no reason why it wont be this year.
Final note to my hosts this weekend- When Geoff wins we will go to Outback eat bloomin’ onions, drink Fosters and eat Aussie chicken.
Following up on Matt's preview, I figured I'd throw out some thoughts on the NL Central.
6. Pittsburgh Pirates
As much as I would like to give a nod to the Pirates and bump them out of the cellar as a reward for some of the good things going on in the organization, this roster at the major league level is god awful. Good god. Is this team even going to win 60 games??
Pittsburgh's starting pitching is comically bad. It's the same cast of characters that have stunk for years. Paul Maholm, Zach Duke, Ian Snell, etc. Zach Duke is currently their #2 starter, and he had an ERA of almost 5.00 last year. Teams hit over .300 against him. In fact, the LIFETIME batting average against Zach Duke is .307. In other words, you could have a borderline Hall of Fame career if you faced Zach Duke every time out. Ian Snell is another one of those guys who has been "on the rise" for a few years now, but the bottom fell out on him as well with a 5.42 ERA last year. Yikes. And the Buccos are trotting out the likes of Jeff Karstens and Ross Ohlendorf in those #4 and #5 spots!! Dear god, are we sure this is a major league roster?? I'd like to see the Columbus Clippers play the Pirates at some point this year.
Paul Maholm had a real nice year last year, but would I bet on him to follow it up with another great year again?? Uhhh, not sure. Maholm was awful in 2007. I don't trust any of these guys. Do the Pirates just have a terrible pitching coach or something?? They bring up these young arms, and all of them are burned out by the time they hit 25/26 years old. Pittsburgh is still paying the price for years of mishandling young players (mainly pitchers).
As for the lineup, I think it will be interesting to see if Nate McLouth can follow up his big 2008 with another big year in 2009. I'm a little concerned about him this year. He started out in 2008 like a house of fire with an OPS of almost .900. But in the second half of the year, he came down to earth considerably and sort of lost his power a bit. I like McLouth and think he can be a mainstay in this lineup, but I'm not quite sure that he can duplicate those numbers in 2009.
The rest of this lineup is bogus though. Nyjer Morgan?? Cmon, let's get real. The guy is a 28 year old rookie. He's not going to be able to effectively hit leadoff in the big leagues for 162 games. Ryan Doumit is decent, but as a cleanup hitter?? No. Adam LaRoche is a below average 1b at best, and his brother has been a huge bust as well. If you are counting on the LaRoche brothers to be anchors in your lineup, you got problems. Andy LaRoche is like the Andy Marte of the National League.
If there is any bit of good news for Pirates fans, it's that they actually have some pretty good young prospects down in the minor leagues. This Andrew McCutcheon guy is promising in the outfield, Jose Tabata was a big pickup in the Xavier Nady trade last year, and they have former 1st round pick, Pedro Alvarez coming up as well at some point this year. If those guys all pan out (or even just 1 or 2 of them), suddenly they could have some horses in that lineup.
I also think their GM Neal Huntington is doing a decent job with the assets that he has had to work with. They've made some interesting trades, and they have a lot of young guys who were highly-touted in other organizations. If they could just get some things to break right to get some pitchers and hitters coming up at the same time, maybe they can get something going.
I don't even remember the last time the Pirates had a winning season, and it's definitely not happening this year. Part of me feels bad for Pirates fans, but then I remember that they have the Steelers and 6 Super Bowl rings. Any and all feelings of pity for Pirates fans end right there. Just enjoy some baseball for a few months and start gearing up for a repeat Super Bowl run in July when the Pirates are 18 games out. It's better than what Cincy fans get out of their sports teams.
5. Houston Astros
The Pirates are struggling, but at least they appear to have a plan to build around their young players and draft picks. Meanwhile, the Houston Astros are a completely rudderless ship that seems to be going nowhere with no real plan of action. I thought about picking Houston to finish last just to make a point of how little I think of their organization. I couldn't be happier to see them signing over-the-hill pitchers and old timers in the offseason.
The amazing thing is that the Astros have been hyping themselves up all spring training. They really seem to think they've got something with this roster. I don't get it. Look at this rotation. Oswalt is still good even if he is getting up there a little bit in years, but Brian Moehler, Mike Hampton, and Russ Ortiz as your #3-5 starters??? Hahahahahaha. Are you kidding me?? That's what you came up with?? Brian Moehler?? Isn't he like 50 by now?? He was never good in the first place. And Russ Ortiz?? He wasn't even in the major leagues last year!!!! I could get behind the idea of Mike Hampton as a "buy low" guy, but not when you have so many other retreads in that rotation. Plus, Hampton is washed up. That's the worst rotation in the National League by far.
I just looked up the Astros GM just to see who is running this show, and laughed out loud when I saw who it was. ED WADE!! Holy cow, how did Ed Wade get another GM job after bombing out in Philly?? Now it all makes sense as to why the Astros are so bad all of the sudden. I hope he's in Houston for another decade. That is terrific stuff. Nobody knows how to crank out 68-94 seasons like Ed Wade.
A lot of the optimism around the Stros this year comes from their lineup, but I would merely classify their lineup as "good" rather than great. Berkman and Lee are both bombers, but there are a lot of geezers and black holes in this lineup. Pudge and Tejada are a combined 72 years old, and Geoff Blum is laughable at 3rd. The Stros seem to be pinning their hopes on this Michael Bourn guy, but he's almost 27 years and hit .229 last year. He's not exactly destined for stardom.
The Astros are really really bad. As a Reds fan, at least I know there are two teams that we are better than.
Which brings me to.......
4. Cincinnati Reds
Ok, lots to talk about here, so let's get going with a little rundown.
Seems like everyone is hopping on the Reds bandwagon from Gammons to Keith Law to Jayson Stark. A lot of people are even saying that the Reds are this year's version of Tampa Bay and that they could make a run at the division or at least wild card.
So why are people high on the Reds?? Well, I guess it comes down to the starting pitching. Between Harang, Volquez, Cueto, Arroyo, and Micah Owings, you could make a case that the Reds actually have a quality group from 1-5 in the rotation. You have a couple veteran guys and two young fireballers who were dominating down at the World Baseball Classic. Let's take a closer look at this rotation though.
Harang - While Cueto and Volquez have been getting the headlines, I think Harang is still the key to this staff in 2009. Harang was awful last year, and part of it stems from the terrible decision by Dusty Baker to trot him out there for a 62 pitch relief appearance in May two days after he had started. One of the worst managerial decisions in recent memory. Trotting your ace out for 4 innings out of the bullpen in a meaningless May game in San Diego. And then he gets hurt. Good times. The Dusty Baker era!
Anyway, Harang lost a bunch of weight in the offseason, and he is talking the talk about being healthy and ready to pitch well again. While I would love to take him at his word, there are a lot of scouts who have been saying that he doesn't have the stuff he has had in recent years. His fastball is off, his curve isn't biting like it once did, and he's not able to strike guys out anymore. In other words, Harang has lost it.
So who should we believe here?? As is usually the case, the truth lies somewhere in the middle. I think Harang will be good enough to be in the rotation but nowhere near the 230 inning/200 strikeout beast that he was in 2006 and 2007. The Reds need Harang to be that guy to have any shot of contending in 2009, but I don't think they're going to get that guy. I also am not discounting the possibility that he's still hurt and that he's going to be on the DL for a good portion of 2009.
If Harang does end up being a stud again, it will be interesting to see what type of future he has in Cincinnati. If things are breaking right and the Reds look like they truly are a team on the rise, maybe he sticks around. If the Reds still look like they are not ready to contend, I would not be surprised to see him get traded at the deadline. I would not be all that bothered to see that happen. If Harang's trade value comes back to life this year, I think the Reds have to explore a trade while they have an opportunity to move him.
Volquez - As much as I like Edinson Volquez (and I still say that I would not redo that Josh Hamilton for Volquez trade), he's probably the most unpredictable guy in this rotation. I could see a scenario where he has another really good year and strikes out 200+ guys and establishes himself as one of the best pitchers in the league. But I could just as easily see scenarios of him having control problems or even getting hurt.
Volquez LOVES the strikeout. He goes into every at-bat looking for the K. I don't necessarily have a problem with that, but it's a killer for your pitch counts. Every count with Volquez seems to go full, so he's 100 pitches in by the 5th inning in most starts. That's not the type of numbers you want to see out of him.
Volquez went 17-6 last year with a 3.21 ERA and 206 Ks in 196 innings. No doubt he had a great year, but he also faded considerably down the stretch. After the All-Star break, his ERA was 4.60, and he started giving up the long ball at a much higher rate.
Volquez is a great example of how destructive Great American Ballpark has been for this Reds organization. For my money, I think it's the worst ballpark in the major leagues. It's a nice place to watch a game but nothing spectacular, and it also creates a significant competitive disadvantage for a small market franchise. Why would you play in a bandbox a small market team?? The only way you are winning as a small market is with good young pitching, but that ballpark burns out all these young arms with the short fences. Over the course of a season, it wears these guys down.
Great American Ballpark was built to give the Reds a chance to compete for revenue streams, but it now looks like an anchor hanging over the head of this franchise. The Coors Field East thing has been a killer on the pitching staff. It is long overdue for the Reds to move the fences back to at least make it "pitcher neutral" or something like that.
Anyway, I hope Volquez has a great year, but I need to see another good start out of him to really feel good about him.
Cueto - While I am a little nervous about Volquez, I feel pretty good about Cueto as long as he stays healthy (which is somewhat of a concern in my eyes). Cueto is a pitcher's pitcher, and he's got great stuff. I'm expecting him to emerge this year as a good young starter. He's got a bunch of different pitches, great control, and he has a bit of a swagger about him. He was great in the World Baseball Classic, so I'm expecting him to head into 2009 with a ton of confidence.
With that said, Cueto is still only 23 years old and probably not quite at the peak of his powers. And any time you are talking about a 5'10 guy with big time torque in his arm, there's always the possibility of an injury risk.
Arroyo - You pretty much know what you are getting out of Bronson Arroyo. Innings-eater, mid 4s ERA, and multiple funny hot dog commercials. One mild concern for him is that he's suffering from Carpal tunnel syndrome from playing the guitar too much. Only Bronson Arroyo would get freaking Carpal tunnel from overplaying the guitar.
Micah Owings - The Reds acquired Micah Owings in the Adam Dunn trade last year, and he has had an outstanding spring thus far. He kind of reminds me of Aaron Harang. One of those guys who got a little attention when he was younger, fell out of favor, and then lands in a new organization and has some success. Owings is 6'5", 220 with pretty good stuff. And he's only 26 years old. He could be the kind of guy who blossoms in the next couple years for this team. That has turned out to be a pretty good trade for the Reds, and Owings is probably the best #5 starter the Reds have had in over a decade.
If a Harang trade or an Arroyo trade is coming this summer, there are guys like Owings in this organization who could be capable of filling bigger roles on this team. You always want to have good depth in your organization, and Owings is the type of guy I'm happy to see on this team.
Plus, Owings can hit!! When he pitches, I would not be surprised to see him hit 8th or even 7th on this team. He actually has some power, and I could even see him as a late inning replacement in the outfield. In the National League, any time you have a pitcher who can hit, it's always a plus.
Homer Bailey - Bailey got sent down to AAA today, but I'm really encouraged by his spring performance. Seems like he is really starting to grow up, and he showed up in camp with a new level of focus and determination. For all the fuss to label him as a bust (he was rumored in about 10 trades this offseason and hacks like Marty Brennaman were bashing him all winter), he's ONLY 22 years old. 22 years old and we're shipping the guy out of town?? What?? Why would you do that, especially when his value is at an all-time low??
The Reds' handling of Homer Bailey is Exhibit A of why I really don't have much faith in this organization. They don't really seem to have any clue of how to handle these young guys. I would kill to have someone from the Marlins come in and totally overhaul how the Reds run their organization.
Anyway, I think it's a good move to send him back down to AAA. Let him go down there and dominate for another year. If there's an injury or a trade, he can come up and fill that 5th spot in the rotation. Or you use him in the bullpen. Either way, let him go down there and prove himself. If he's really matured, he'll use this AAA stint as an opportunity to prove that he absolutely has to be on the major league roster.
Lineup - The lineup this year is going to look considerably different without the typical mainstays of Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey, Jr. There's talk that the Reds are now focused on speed and contact. I guess. My opinion is that the Reds are just trying to come up with something to explain for a below average lineup.
This lineup is WEAK. The only guy I even remotely trust right now is Joey Votto. I think Votto will be at least be a solid .280, 20 bombs, 85 RBI guy, and he may even get into the 25-30 HR territory if he continues to progress. Votto is rock solid. Mr. Canada.
But everyone else?? I don't see it. The opening day #2 hitter is some guy named Darnell McDonald. I follow the Reds pretty closely, and I've literally barely heard of this guy. He's 30 years old. Eek. Some of the following names are going to get major playing time this year:
Wily Taveras Alex Gonzalez Chris Dickerson Jerry Hairston Jr. Ramon Hernandez
Did Walt Jocketty go to the Ed Wade School for GMs or something?? Overpaying below average players like Taveras and Hairston is not a recipe to win games. You don't sign those types of guys and pronounce yourself "set" at a certain position. None of those guys should be in an everyday lineup other than maybe Ramon Hernandez, and yet all five of them are going to play prominent roles on this team.
Jocketty literally did nothing with this team. He tinkered around the margins a little bit, but there was no bold move to really overhaul this roster. I was pumping the possibility of a trade for an undervalued guy like Francoeur or Jeremy Hermida with the hope that you get a potential middle of the order bat on the cheap like Jocketty once did with Jim Edmonds. And yet he essentially stood pat with a team that won 70 games last year.
As for the other guys in this lineup, I really can't see how 22 year old Jay Bruce (he just turned 22 on April 3) can be counted on to be the anchor for your team if you have any aspirations to contend. I love Jay Bruce and think he will be a big time player someday, but he's not ready to carry a team at this point. He can't hit lefties, and he strikes out way too much. Bruce has legit power and is a very good outfielder, but he's going to go through a bunch of deep slumps throughout the year. 22 year olds are very rarely ready to consistently produce at the major league level. Bruce is a a year or two away from being a high impact guy.
And while I don't dislike Brandon Phillips, we've seen by now that he's not a cleanup hitter. Phillips' numbers were good last year, but he really tailed off last year to the point where I have a little bit of concern about him He hit .225 after the break last year. He's an outstanding fielder and kills lefties, but he's really not an elite offensive player. And he got real surly in the locker room when things started going badly for him. I don't know, I hope he does well, but Phillips is another guy who makes me nervous.
There's no one else in this lineup worthy of addressing, so I'll give somewhat of a general feeling on this team and this franchise. I think the Reds have some very promising parts. Volquez, Cueto, Votto, and Bruce are a really good young nucleus, and I like what Homer Bailey has shown in the spring. They have enough good young arms to be intriguing for the next couple years.
But then I look at who is running this organization and can't seem to fully hop on board. The Reds are stuck in a 1970s timewarp. They are playing a 1970s game in 2009. You got an old school owner (Castellini), an old school GM (Jocketty), an old school manager (Dusty Baker), and a crusty old Hall of Fame play by play announcer (Marty Brennaman) who are serving as the brain trust in this organization. All of those guys are trying to keep pushing their old school ways, but the game has evolved and passed them by.
I don't necessarily mind an older guy like Jocketty as the GM. Not all the old guys are bad GMs. Heck, Pat Gillick is as good as any GM in baseball, and he's even older than Jocketty. But Gillick is a guy who has always adapted with the times in every GM job he has had. I'm not sure I can say the same about Jocketty. I was expecting Jocketty to make some bold moves to bolster this young corps, and he did nothing.
One positive that has emerged is that the Reds seem to have a new leadership group of guys like Joey Votto and Jay Bruce emerging to replace guys like Dunn and Griffey. Leadership was not exactly the specialty for Dunn or Griffey, and those guys were notorious for skipping out on extra BP and extra field work. They set a bad example for a lot of the young guys. I'm actually encouraged to read that Votto has really taken a lot of pride in changing the culture of the Reds clubhouse, and I think it will show up on the field. This team is going to hustle and scrap and claw for wins. I'm a huge fan of Joey Votto. He's the kind of guy you want leading your room.
Finally, there's Dusty Baker. How can anyone remotely feel confident about the Reds as a sleeper team when you have Dusty Baker running the show in this clubhouse?? Just when you start to get a feel for him, he goes and inserts Darnell McDonald into the Opening Day lineup and hits him in the #2 hole!! Dusty loves to be unpredictable, but his "hunches" are almost ALWAYS wrong. Being an MLB manager is really not all that difficult, but Dusty somehow makes it that way. Dusty isn't even stuck in a timewarp. He's just dumb and doesn't get it. Dusty doesn't seem to have any concept of what type of lineup is conducive to producing runs. Needless to say, I expect to see guys like Taveras and other bums hitting #1 and #2 in this lineup all year and leaving Joey Votto with no one to drive in when he comes to the plate.
Comparing Dusty Baker to Tony LaRussa is like comparing Mick Cronin to Tom Izzo. There is no comparison. LaRussa can win you an extra 10+ games a year, and Dusty is guaranteed to cost you 5-10 games a year. That's a substantial difference.
Bottom line, this team MIGHT get to 80-85 wins, but I still think this team is more like a 70-75 win club. I like the bullpen, like some of the pitching, but not a fan of the lineup and not a fan of the manager. The Reds have not had a winning record since 2000, and I expect that streak to continue through 2009.
3. Milwaukee Brewers -
The Brew Crew and the Reds are probably a toss up for the #3 spot, but I think I'll stick with the Brewers here because I like their lineup. Between Fielder and Braun, the Brewers have two surefire hosses in this lineup. You can pretty much pencil in 70 bombs and 250 RBI out of those two guys. Even guys like Corey Hart and Hardy and Cameron are productive offensive players. That offense is going to be reliable all year.
Their pitching is pretty shaky though. I love Gallardo, like this Manny Parra guy, but the rest of that rotation is middling at best. Looper, Suppan, and Bush aren't scaring anyone. And their bullpen is still a mess. Too many shaky arms on their staff. If anyone gets hurt, the bottom could easily fall out and they finish 70-92 or something like that.
I actually do feel a little bad for the Brewers fans. It seemed like they were really on the rise, but their momentum has stalled. That CC trade was fun, but did it really accomplish anything?? And now Sheets is gone, so they are basically starting over with young pitchers. I love Fielder and Braun, but you gotta have more than that to compete.
I can't see the Brewers contending at all, but I'll say they get to .500.
2. St. Louis Cardinals
Sleeper alert!! I thought strongly about putting St. Louis down as my pick to win the NL Central this year, but I couldn't quite bring myself to do it. I really really like St. Louis this year from top to bottom.
I think Matt's analogy comparing St. Louis and Tony LaRussa to Michigan State and Tom Izzo was a great one. Couldn't agree more. St. Louis doesn't look flashy, but they are a classic example of the sum being greater than its parts. I like their lineup, their pitching, their bullpen, and their manager. They didn't really do a thing in the offseason, but it seems like they are a lot deeper this year.
The rotation doesn't look like much on paper, but I would not be shocked to see Adam Wainwright finish in the top 3 of the NL Cy Young Voting. I'm real high on this guy and think he's going to do real well as the ace of this staff. The other high end guy on this staff could be a blast from the past. Chris Carpenter. Sounds like he's been dominating all spring and could be back to his old self. I know he's basically been out of the game for two years now, but Carpenter is still only two years removed from a dominant season where he carried the Cards to the World Series title. Carpenter is 33 years old now, but he's missed so much time on the shelf that his arm probably doesn't have quite as much mileage as the typical 33 year old. If his structural issues are fixed, he could be a productive pitcher for them.
As for the rest of the rotation, Lohse, Wellemeyer, and Pineiro are not exactly guys who strike fear in you, but look at what they have done in St. Louis. Lohse won 15 games last year with an ERA of 3.76 in 200 innings. That's pretty darn good. Same goes for Wellemeyer. I don't know how they do it, but Duncan and LaRussa always seem to find these guys and coach them up. Maybe they are just handing out HGH or something, but it seems to work.
The Cards bullpen was awful last year, but they have some promising arms now. Motte looks like a stopper back there, and I think Perez will eventually be an effective 7th/8th inning guy if he isn't eventually the closer.
Their lineup looks middling on paper, but I think there are a couple of sleepers here. Plus, they have plenty of guys who can fill a role. They got their alpha dog (Pujols), some decent power bats around him (Ankiel, Ludwick), and an assortment of scrappy white guys around them (Schumaker, Duncan, etc). That's pretty much been the formula for Tony LaRussa for about 15 years. Plus, they might have this Colby Rasmus guy coming up from the minors.
The guy who could surprise this year is Khalil Greene. Just throwing that out there. Not a star or anything, but one of those #6/#7 hitters who exceeds expectations. He was awful last year, but I wouldn't be surprised if LaRussa saw something in him that he thought he could fix. When he hits .280 this year with 20 bombs, I won't be surprised.
Anyway, maybe it's blind faith in LaRussa, but I would not be shocked to see St. Louis right in the mix for the NL Central crown. I think they are a better team this year than they were last year, and last year they won 86 games.
1. Chicago Cubs
I've been real bullish on the Cubs for about 3-4 years now because I have a lot of respect for Jim Hendry as a General Manager. He has done a really nice job of upgrading the Cubs and making solid acquisitions. When they added Piniella, it was the perfect move to bring in a quality manager who squeeze wins out of the talent on the roster.
ON PAPER, the Cubs look as strong as ever, and I don't see any reason why they wouldn't be the favorite to win the NL Central. But if you take a closer look at their roster, they are a lot more vulnerable than people realize. I actually think the Cubs have had a subpar offseason for the first time in several years. It seems like they have always added quality players to upgrade their team, but I'm not sure about some of the moves they have made this year.
For starters, maybe I will be proven wrong, but I think it was a risky move to put so much faith in Ryan Dempster this offseason. Maybe Dempster really has turned the corner and turned into a stud at 31 years old, but would it surprise anyone if he reverted back to the mediocre pitcher that he was before last year?? Dempster wasn't even a starter until last year, and his ERA in 2006 and 2007 were 4.80 and 4.72 respectively. Color me skeptical of Ryan Dempster.
As for the rest of their rotation, isn't there some concern here?? Ted Lilly is basically the lefthanded Bronson Arroyo. A good pitcher who eats up innings but doesn't blow you away. Zambrano has been a horse his entire career, but what happened to him down the stretch last year?? Was it just a stumble or a sign that his arm is starting to wear down after all those long years with Dusty Baker?? Zambrano is only 27, but he's already in his 8th year and has some heavy mileague on his arm. In terms of pitching years, he's more like a 32 year old than a 27 year old. His strikeouts fell off the map last year as well, so who knows what he'll be like this year. His days of being a 200+ strikeout and low 3.00s ERA are probably over.
Then there's Rich Harden. As great as this guy is when he's healthy, aren't the Cubs essentially rolling the dice with him?? How could anyone even remotely try to predict that he's good for 30 starts this year?? Last year was his healthiest year, and he only threw 140 innnigs in 25 starts. I gotta think Lou Piniella would like to get more than that out of his #2 starter.
Add all that up, and there are some questions in their rotation. I am not discounting the strong possibility that Jake Peavy is wearing a Cubs uniform at some point this summer, but I am purely looking at them for now. If Peavy is a Cub, everything changes. They'd be just about unstoppable with him around.
I love the Cubs bullpen, but those guys might be getting a ton of work this year. Marmol is a beast, Gregg is solid, and I think guys like Heilman and Samardzija (when he comes back up) give them a lot of depth and options in the pen.
The Cubs lineup looks menacing on paper, but look at some of the guys they are counting on this year. A 33 year old Derrek Lee whose power completely fell off the map last year. A 33 year old Alfonso Soriano (and he may be 40 in Latino years) who missed 50 games last year. A 32 year old Fukudome who completely fell apart in the second half last year. And a 30 year old Milton Bradley who literally has never been healthy his entire career.
Aramis Ramirez and Soto are studs and I do think the Cubs have a ton of different weapons to choose from, but their lineup is counting on some guys who are clearly on the downside of their careers. I never really trust teams with too many older guys. Older guys get hurt and fade down the stretch. The Cubs have some young players, but only a handful.
Anyway, Lou Piniella is as good as any manager in the game, so I do think he'll find a way to get maximum production out of this roster. He is not the type of manager who underachieves, so I'm not about to suggest that the Cubs will miss the playoffs. But I do think there are some concerns for them. Everyone has all but stamped them into the World Series, but I think they have a lot of flaws that may come back to haunt them later in the year.
I'll clarify that last statement by saying that they will be virtually impossible to beat if they get Jake Peavy. If I was Jim Hendry, I would move heaven and earth to get Peavy. He is the difference between them being vulnerable and being the overwhelming favorite to go to the World Series.
All right, it's not often when a 25 year old Pro Bowl quarterback gets traded, so let's break this trade down here. I would imagine the Bears Nation is jumping for joy, and I think there for pretty good reason. But there are some risks here.
Some questions:
1) How good exactly is Jay Cutler??
I'll start by saying that I think Cutler has been good, and he obviously has a ton of potential with that big arm. If you look at his raw numbers, he threw for 4500 yards last year. That pretty much blows the Bears QBs out of the water. I've seen Cutler look spectacular at times, especially against the Browns last year where he was pretty much unstoppable. ON PAPER, it's a major upgrade at the QB position. And at 25 years old, they are getting him for the prime of his career. He could conceivably be the guy in Chicago for the next decade. In a cold weather city like Chicago, you probably want a guy with a big arm who can make those throws to the sideline right into a fierce wind.
But are we really sure that Cutler is an elite quarterback once you take him out of the friendly confines in Denver?? Some things to take into consideration here.
a) Mike Shanahan - Cutler has played so far for Mike Shanahan, who ALWAYS seems to get great production out of his QBs. Brian flipping Griese put up big numbers for a few years in Denver. Heck, Jake Plummer even threw for 4000 yards one year in Denver. If you play in Denver in that Shanahan offense, he is going to steer you toward some big numbers even if you are not really that great. If you'll notice, both of those guys have stunk since they left Denver. Playing quarterback for Shanahan is like playing baseball in Coors Field.
So now that he is out of Denver and headed to Chicago, what kind of numbers is he going to put up playing for Lovie Smith instead of Mike Shanahan?? Are we sure he's going to be putting up 4000 passing yards in that offense?? One of the scary things about trades and free agency is that you are getting a guy who has spent his whole career playing in a different system. No matter how much you scout a player and study him, you really won't know how he'll play in your system until you see it on the field.
b) INTs - Cutler threw 18 picks last year! EIGHTEEN! He was second in the league behind Favre. That's over one INT a game. In other words, he's a gunslinger. In the modern day NFL where defenses are so complicated, is that really what you want?? Isn't that probably why Josh McDaniels was trying to trade Cutler to get Cassel?? Maybe McDaniels didn't want to deal with Cutler throwing drive-killing picks all year by forcing throws with his big arm. And even though he threw for a ton of yards, Cutler's QB rating and completion percentage are middle of the pack.
Cutler is one of those guys who is in love with his arm. He seems to think he can fire off any pass into traffic and get away with it. That can be a great thing, but it can also be a disaster. The hope here is probably that he'll mature and make better decisions. Obviously, he can make all the throws, but hopefully he doesn't fall into the trap of always trusting his arm over good decisions.
c) Intangibles - The impression that I've been getting is that a lot of the Denver guys weren't exactly sobbing about Cutler leaving. What is the story with this guy?? Is he a jerk?? Is he a prima donna?? Do his teammates like him?? What kind of a leader is he??
The good thing on the intangibles front is that Cutler hopefully got a wake up call with this Denver situation. You would think that the Bears are going to inherit a very motivated and determined Jay Cutler. If so, they'll probably be very happy. But if they are getting a flake with the same immaturity issues, it's going to be a disaster. Cutler is basically out of second chance. He's got to make it happen with the Bears, or he's not going to get another chance to redeem himself.
Don't get me wrong, the Bears definitely got a franchise QB who is only 25 years old. Those types of guys don't grow on trees. He has the ability to be a top 5 QB for a number of years. But I don't think it's an automatic "he'll do exactly what he did in Denver in Chicago" situation. There is some risk here.
2) Did the Bears give up too much here??
Just a thought, but the Chiefs gave a up a second round pick for Cassel and Vrabel. Meanwhile, the Bears have given up two first rounders and a 3rd and Orton. In retrospect, the Chiefs may have gotten a heckuva deal. The Bears got their man, but they gave up A TON to get him. My feeling on a Cutler trade leading up to it was that the Broncos would probably get a 1st rounder and maybe a player for him. But two first round picks and a 3rd?? Wow. I was always under the impression that teams covet those first round picks, so that's quite a price to pay.
I don't know much about the Bears roster, but are they so loaded everywhere else that they don't need a first round pick for the next two years?? What is their line like?? How is their defense?? I know they had a good defense a couple years ago, but aren't a lot of those guys getting a little older?? They've basically forfeited any opportunity to get an impact guy out of the draft for the next two years.
Then again, the Bears may very well have whiffed on both those picks and the 3rd rounder. They know what they are getting with Cutler, and QB is a critical position. I guess the Bears view Cutler as a more valuable commodity than those two picks.
3) Who is Cutler going to throw to??
Who are the #1 and #2 receivers for the Bears?? Hester?? Is Muhsin Muhammad still there?? Who is Cutler going to throw to next year?? If he's going to be productive in that Bears' offense, isn't he going to need some receivers??
That's where this move is a little confusing to me. It would be one thing if the Bears were close and had a talented offense that just needed a quarterback to push them over the edge, but it seems like there's not much to work with around him. Then again, the Bears went 9-7 last year, so maybe they are a lot closer than I realized.
4) How did Denver make out on this trade??
Seems like a lot of people are killing Denver all of the sudden, but I think they made out like bandits. Two first rounders, a 3rd, and Orton? That's a haul. I did not expect them to get that much. They can use those first rounders to build up the line or the defense, or they could try to draft a young QB. This trade gives them the foundation to restock their team in the way that McDaniels wants.
Honestly, I know everyone considers him a throw-in piece for this deal, but I kind of like Kyle Orton a little bit in Denver in that McDaniels/New England offense. He played at Purdue where you are mainly making short throws that require accuracy. Look at the receivers he's working with. Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal is pretty strong. Couldn't you see him doing pretty well out there in that offense?? I think so. Maybe not at Cutler's level, but I think he could be productive while the Broncos search for a long term option.
Quarterback is a critical position obviously, but only if the guy is a perfect fit in that offense. Roethlisberger would probably not be as effective as he is now if he was playing for a different team, but he's perfect in Pittsburgh. Same with Tom Brady in New England. Maybe Cutler wasn't the right fit for McDaniels. If he knew that right from the start, it was a smart move to trade him while his trade value is still really high.
I know there is some talk that the Broncos are going to try to maneuver in this draft to get Mark Sanchez. I know people are falling in love with Sanchez, but color me skeptical of him. I guess they have a lot of picks to work with, but this trade won't look so good for Denver if they draft Sanchez and he turns out to be a bust.
Conclusion:
In many ways, this trade is a win-win for both franchises. The Bears get a franchise QB who immediately makes them a threat to win their division (if not more). They gave up a ton, but maybe they just felt like the value of getting Cutler to be the face of the franchise was worth the price. Let's be honest, the Bears have been a mediocre and somewhat boring franchise for a couple years, so maybe they felt like they had to make this move to give their franchise a little bit of pizazz. Maybe it will be a complete disaster and Cutler turns out to be a whiner and an interception machine. But chances are that he'll at least be an above-average player who can make all the throws in the league, and the Bears are getting him in his prime.
As for the Broncos, McDaniels seems to be getting a ton of heat, but I actually like what he has done there. It's sort of a Parcells-ian approach to building a franchise. He didn't come there to mold guys to his system. He came to Denver to blow things up and build the franchise the way he wanted to do it. I think that's the way you have to do it in the NFL. Parcells has traditionally done the same things at every place he has been. He runs the bad apples and bad fits out of town, and then goes about building the team with the guys he really wants. For whatever reason, he did not like or trust Cutler. Maybe McDaniels is completely wrong about Cutler, but I admire his guts. With a total of four first round picks in the next two drafts, he has a huge opportunity to build the Broncos the way he wants. They might have some QB issues for a year or two, but it's better to make a move on Cutler now if you don't think he's the guy for your franchise.
