September 21, 2009

Around the Nation: Notre Dame survives, the SEC is the new WAC?, Helmet-Gate, Penn State's fraudulent ranking, and thoughts on Brady Quinn

Some thoughts from another wild weekend in college football:

14. Just looked at the AP Top 25 poll for the first time all year, and I can't believe who I'm seeing at #5 in the country right now. Penn freaking State. You have got to be kidding me. If you're a Penn State fan, you should be embarrassed to be ranked #5 with that nonconference schedule. Penn State may well be a good football team (I personally think they'd go 8-4 in the SEC), but they have done nothing to deserve that ranking. Play someone with a pulse, and then we'll talk.

Again, take a look at who they are playing in the nonconference this year. It is an abomination.

Akron
Syracuse
Temple
Eastern Illinois

What a joke! There are MAC teams that could go 4-0 against that schedule. How do you look yourself in the mirror and call yourself a big time program with a schedule like that??

Barring a fluke upset, Penn State basically has a two game season with a road game at Michigan and a home game against Ohio State. If Penn State goes undefeated this year and somehow sneaks into the title game over a 1 loss SEC champion, I am going to lose my mind. We ALL watched what happened in the Rose Bowl last year. Penn State got absolutely housed by USC, and I have no doubt that the same would happen this year if they had to play one of the big boys. Penn State is not an elite team and should not even be in the conversation for the national title game. Unfortunately, they're already in the top 5.

13) Is it me or are there are a lot more guys in football losing their helmets during the middle of the play than there used to be?? It feels like every other play someone's helmet is popping off during the middle of the play. Not only is it dangerous, doesn't it effectively take you out of the play?? How can you really bust some heads when you don't even have your helmet on?? With football as violent and dangerous as it is today, shouldn't helmets be more secure and not less?? Someone at Riddell Helmets might want to look into this issue.

What happened to the chin strap?? Do we not own chin straps?? Maybe they fall off because no one buckles them anymore. I don't understand it. All I know is that ND leads the nation right now in helmets flying off during the play.

I'm trying to think back to my high school football days, and I don't see how it's even possible for your helmet to pop off. If you have a chin strap on, the helmet could only pop off if your chin strap wasn't buckled properly. Are helmets just made differently now?? Is there a performance reason to not have your chin strap on or to have your helmet a little loose??

I'd like to hear more from the NCAA on the "helmets falling off" trend. One of these games, someone without a helmet is going to get leveled and get seriously hurt. You can see it coming from a mile away.

12) My Heisman ballot through week 3:

3) Jacory Harris
2) Jimmy Clausen
1) Jahvid Best

This list is very fluid of course through only three games, but that's where I stand through the first quarter of the season. Maybe that #2 pick is biased, but tell me who is playing better right now at quarterback?? I haven't seen anyone yet. Clausen has thrown 9 tds and ZERO picks. I watched a good bit of the Texas-Texas Tech game, and Colt McCoy is not playing as well as Jimmy Clausen right now. McCoy already has four picks this year. Plus, Jimmy Clausen is the #3 overall player right now in my fantasy league behind Jahvid Best and Taylor Potts. The numbers don't lie. I'll go with Jahvid Best at #1 for now based on the absurd numbers that he has put up so far on a top 10 team. This list will change multiple times over the course of the season.

11) What is going on with SEC defenses this year?? I watched that Arkansas-Georgia game, and it was borderline comical out there. NO ONE was playing any defense. Crazy game. Arkansas is fun to watch. Ryan Mallett looks like a completely different player. They are going to be a very interesting team the next couple years.

I don't have a read on the SEC at all this year. I've been to three straight ND games and haven't had much of a chance to watch much SEC football. The league has a little different feel this year. Lots more offense and passing than I'm used to seeing in the SEC. Other than Alabama, of course, who is just pounding teams on the ground.

Looking forward to settling in these next few weeks to watch some SEC football. There are some dandies coming up over the next few weeks (LSU-Georgia, Bama-Ole Miss, LSU-Florida). Buckle up folks. It's SEC time.

10) Something that I noticed in the box score that didn't get as much attention nationally as I thought maybe it should:

Tate Forcier against EMU: 7 for 13 for 68 yards, 2 sacks, 6 carries for 5 yards
Denard Robinson: 0 for 4, 0 yards, 2 INTs

Ouch. The Tate Forcier for Heisman bandwagon lost a wheel. I think he's having a remarkable year for a true freshman, but there will be some clunkers for him this year. I have no doubt about it. Freshmen QBs usually don't make it through the season without some rough patches.

9) I have some thoughts on the ND game below, but I wanted to chime in with a couple thoughts on recruiting first. If you're an ND prospect, wouldn't this start give you a lot of reason to think about coming to ND?? Matt James (OL recruit from St. Xavier in Cincy) was at the ND-MSU game, and he had to have been excited about how good our o-line has looked so far. If you come to ND, you get to play for Frank Verducci, who has been a miracle worker thus far. Same goes for any skill player in the passing game. Come to ND, and you'll put up huge numbers. Andrew Hendrix must be licking his chops to play in this offense. I would think we will get a 5 star QB next year if Weis is back (another hidden reason to keep it going with Charlie Weis).

Defensively, wouldn't you be watching that game thinking that you could get on the field right away?? A 300 pound DT beast like Nix has to be thinking he could come in and get snaps immediately. Same for Chris Martin (who I have no doubt is coming to ND) or any linebackers or safeties we are recruiting. Charlie Weis can go to any living room in the country and offer immediate playing time to anyone who wants to make a difference and put this defense over the top.

8) Great win for Washington, but all that game really proves to me is that college football is completely unpredictable from week to week. It's part of the beauty of the game, but also makes the week-to-week "instant analysis" stuff a little misguided. Washington is ABSOLUTELY a bowl team, but I'm not ready to crown them a 9-10 win team by any means. Incredible win for Steve Sarkisian (who seems like a great guy), and I have no doubt that Washington is a program on the rise that could be a major force in the Pac 10 in the next few years. But they could easily lay down next week at Stanford and lose by double digits. It's impossible to predict how teams are going to perform week to week. More often than not, big wins are followed by big losses, and bad losses are followed by inspired performances the next week. At the end of the day, college kids aren't professionals. You are going to have extreme highs and lows more often than a pro team.

The ND-MSU game was another great example. Sparty lays down against CMU at home, but you KNEW they were going to show up ready for ND. If they had played against CMU like they did against ND, they would have won by 3 touchdowns.

One final Washington note. Maybe the best move Sarkisian made as a head coach was to lure Nick Holt from USC. I can't believe he pulled that off. I think Holt is going to be an outstanding head coach someday. It's already paying major dividends for the Husky program.

7) Brady Quinn -- Oh boy. Didn't get a chance to watch Brady in week one, but I saw his performance yesterday. It did not go well. I hate saying this as much as anybody, but Brady Quinn is not a good NFL quarterback. He can make the short dink and dunk throws, but he has no ability to stretch the field. He really isn't even that great with the short stuff either. Lots of balls behind guys or balls getting batted down at the line.

Watching Brady yesterday, it brought back memories of his biggest flaws when he was at ND. He's a great athlete, but his accuracy occasionally gets away from him. There were always stretches in a game where Brady was either too pumped or just not feeling right for whatever reason. He could get away with it in college, but not in the NFL.

Granted, the Browns have zero running game and are really a bad football team from top to bottom, but Brady does not look like a guy who can start 16 games in the NFL right now. Maybe he will get better as the season goes along, but it's his third year. He really should be looking much better by now. I can at least see why Mangini was iffy about Brady Quinn going into the year. Do not be shocked if Derek Anderson is back in there at some point.

Oh, and there's this.

Dan Dierdorf probably sprinted to his phone to call up Gumbel as soon as he saw it and they both simultaneously shrieked "RAY LEWIS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!" like they were school girls with a crush on their 6th grade math teacher.

Ray Lewis is the most obvious HGH user since Barry Bonds, but the man is probably the best middle linebacker of all time. He's making a case to be considered the greatest defensive player of all time to be perfectly honest.

Monstrous win for the Ravens. Seems like Ray is going to have a great shot at one more ring.

6) Not enough data points to sound any alarms yet, but is it time to at least take a peek at Florida and USC and wonder just a bit about their offenses?? Both those teams have new offensive coordinators after Mullen left Florida for Mississippi State and Sarkisian left USC for Washington.

I didn't get to watch a play of the Florida game, but I'm shocked that they didn't lay the wood on Tennessee. I know it's a rivalry game that UT was really up for, but Florida has basically had all offseason to get ready for that game with two cupcakes to start the year. Maybe they're still working out the kinks or holding things back, but I'm curious to see how their offense looks in the next couple weeks. They have a moderately interesting game at Kentucky this weekend followed by a big one at LSU and then Arkansas.

Who is their Percy Harvin this year?? Doesn't seem like they've really found that guy yet. Are they going to more of a pro style offense and still adjusting?? Looking forward to watching them play.

For all I know, the Gators are just lying in the weeds waiting to explode from here on out. Their defense is still as good as any in the nation, so it's not like they can't win low scoring games either. But I must say that I was surprised by the low scoring game with the Vols and the low offensive output in general from a yardage standpoint (323 yards total).

As for USC, they brought in Jeremy Bates from the Denver Broncos, but he is taking all kinds of heat this week for conservative playcalling. Is it the young QBs or the offense or something else?? Guess we'll have to see how they look the next couple weeks.

5) To me, the defining game of the weekend was what happened out in Provo, Utah. The worst Mormon bloodbath since the Battle of Crooked River in 1838. Does that Florida State thumping of BYU finally put the rest the notion that these mid-majors should be included in the BCS championship game discussions?? Just stop already. Florida State is not even a great team right now, and they destroyed BYU in their building. Maybe these mid-majors can sneak up on a BCS team when they aren't up for the game like Boise and Utah have done, but if you put a motivated and talented team like FSU against a mid-major, it's a no contest. I still firmly believe that. It comes down to the Jimmys and the Joes. Florida State has elite talent. BYU has white corners. Enough said. Week in and week out, those teams don't play teams with elite talent and depth, and I don't think they would survive life in a big time league. Put Boise or BYU in the SEC with the pounding that those teams take week in and week out, and they'd lose 4-5 games AT LEAST.

I think the BYUs and Boises and Utahs are up and coming programs, but I don't want any part of those teams in a BCS title game. Win 11-12 games in a BCS league, and then we'll talk.

4) I know people are probably surprised to see Miami ranked in the top 10 this week, but I actually think you could have justified them in the top 5 after that performance against Georgia Tech. How many teams have been as impressive as Miami so far?? They look as talented as anyone in the nation, and completely outclassed Georgia Tech in every way.

Amazing turnaround job by Randy Shannon so far. I'll be the first to admit I was completely wrong on him for calling him Tyrone Willingham 2.0. He's recruiting well, and he made a great hire to bring in Mark Whipple as offensive coordinator.

Guess we'll see how they fare over these next two weeks with Virginia Tech and Oklahoma coming up, but I wouldn't be shocked to see them win one or both. They look legitimate at this point.

Only one complaint about Miami. I think they should move back to the Orange Bowl. Pro Player is fine, but it's kinda bowl game-ish for a home stadium. If Miami wants to seal the deal and get back to being the intimidating Miami brand, I'd get out of that Pro Player and try to revive the O.B.

Great to have The U back to prominence in college football. There have been quite a few resurgence stories this year. Miami, Michigan, and Washington to name a few. That's three of the best programs of the 90s right there. I like when the big names are good in college football.

By the way, Miami-Ohio State in the Horseshoe in 2010. VERY interesting game all of the sudden. Could be the marquee game of the nonconference season in 2010.

3) Some random thoughts on the ND game after watching it from the stands and then watching it on TIVO:

--First, the crowd was outstanding again on Saturday. Both home game crowds have been as good as I've heard them.

ND has always had a great crowd (especially earlier in the year when the weather is good), but it's really been a lively place this year. I hope we bring more of the same the next couple weeks.

--Loudest moments from the crowd in order:

3) Mike Collins announcing the final score of the USC-Washington game.
2) The Tate touchdown to take the lead
1) The McCarthy pick. As loud as I've ever heard it at ND Stadium. The crowd went from freaking out and incredibly nervous (bordering on resignation to an inevitable MSU td) to pure pandemonium. Great moment.

Some other random observations from behind the team bench:

1) The student section is as good as ever. Saw a great shirt from a student. There was a picture of a kid shotgunning a beer, and above it read: "The Shotgun: A Decided Schematic Advantage" Fine work.

2) Great to see Vince Vaughn on the sideline in an ND hat. He must have taken 50 pictures with different groups on the sideline. Hope he comes back for USC in a Jimmy Clausen jersey.

3) Tim Brown was on the sideline as well and was so into the game that several times he went over to the replay booth to try to watch the replay and lobby the officials to make a call in favor of ND. Gotta love that.

4) Corwin Brown really lights into the team on the sideline. Very intense coach.

Ok, onto the game:

--Jimmy Clausen -- What else can be said about Jimmy Clausen that hasn't already been said?? How great did he play on Saturday?? The game winner to Tate was a spectacular pass. I hope people realize that players like Jimmy Clausen don't grow on trees. We may never have a passer as good as him ever again.

Every question that we sort of wondered about him coming into the season has been answered. Pocket presence?? Not even the slightest problem anymore. He feels the rush, slides up in the pocket, and either runs or finds a guy. I haven't seen him turn his back away from the pocket once this year. He knows exactly where he wants to go with the ball in this offense, and every ball is right on the money. The only incompletions he seems to have are dropped balls.

Clausen was really banged up on Saturday. He was limping on every play and on the sideline. To hang in there and play that well for three quarters with that bum toe is pretty remarkable.

I used to worry about Clausen. That feels silly now. He's a mature, veteran leader who is playing at a really high level. As well as any QB who has ever played at ND.

--Golden Tate -- I'm actually surprised that he's been getting so much heat from ND fans about his performance on Saturday. So he dropped one pass and hotdogged it a little bit after the last td. Big whoop. He was awesome Saturday. Think about how many tackles he broke, especially in the second half. He singlehandedly willed the team to a couple huge first downs by breaking tackles and scraping and clawing. Plus, the two long balls down the field were incredible plays.

Maybe Tate is a little volatile, but he's another guy who doesn't come around too often. He carried us in the second half from a receiving standpoint even though Michigan State paid close attention to him with Floyd out.

I'm a huge Golden Tate fan. He's not the pure receiver that Floyd is, but he's as good a playmaker as anyone in the country.

--Armando Allen -- Maybe the biggest improvement from year to year that I've seen out of an ND player in a long time. Credit to Coach Alford and to Armando Allen for what we are seeing now. He is a legit feature back, and I expect his workload to only increase now that Floyd is out.

As good as the running game has looked, I actually think there's room to run the ball even more as the year goes along. We were gashing Michigan State with off tackle stuff. If our line continues to block this well, we should just keep hammering the run.

--O-line: In Frank Verducci I Trust. What a great hire he has turned out to be. Remember when the o-line was a huge question mark?? That feels like years ago. We run block well, we pass block well, we can go power, we can go finesse. This line has played GREAT through three games. Clausen has hardly been touched, and the running game has been powerful.

The right side of our line is just blowing people off the ball. Really impressive stuff. The days of putting our line play in the hands of young 18-19 year old kids are over. These guys are men now.

I really can't say enough good things about our offense this year. As fun as the 2005 offense was, this offense is better I think. Almost every drive has been a touchdown or a field goal. And it's not just smoke and mirrors or all jump balls. It's a balanced attack that picks up first downs on the ground and gets different guys involved in the passing game. With this new found running game and Clausen playing as well as he is, I really don't think there will be that much of a drop off offensively (if at all) even without Floyd.

--Kyle McCarthy -- Did it feel like he made every tackle on Saturday?? Where would this team be without Kyle McCarthy?? Honestly, not only is McCarthy so far and away the MVP of the defense, he's just about the only guy on the defense who is even playing well. He saves a touchdown like once a series. At least.

--So many things going on with this defense that I still can't figure out:

1) When are we going to make personnel changes on the d-line?? It's time to try something different up front. I think you gotta move Ethan Johnson to end and get some more beef in the middle. Ethan Johnson is supposed to be a playmaker on this defense. He's wasting away at DT right now. At least at DE, he'd have some matchup advantages. At DT, he just gets stymied.

The quintessential play where our d-line came up small was that stretch play to the left that MSU ran in for a score in the 3rd quarter. Just gashed us. Teams don't really have any trouble moving our d-line wherever they want.

From our seats, you could really see how small our d-line is. KLM is skinny, John Ryan is nothing physically, Kerry Neal never seems to play much, and our tackles aren't all that big. Ian Williams has some size, but he's the only real big guy in this unit. We badly need Hafis Williams or Cwynar to step up and earn more snaps.

2) Where are the linebackers?? Did our linebackers even make a tackle on Saturday?? Toryan Smith got abused all game long. He really cannot be starting much longer. He doesn't get off blocks, and he can't cover anyone.

The problem is that Te'o seems like he's a little too raw himself. He got burnt badly on a pass play to the tight end. I'd like to see more of Te'o, but he's probably going to have to be brought along slowly. I expect to see him getting more involved in the defense as the season goes along.

Darius Fleming has been a playmaker though. About the only positive out of the linebackers.

3) What is going on with this secondary?? I can't believe how mediocre the secondary has looked. Darrin Walls is legitimately getting picked on at this point. He gives like a 10 yard cushion every time. Plus, he dropped two picks. He's either rusty or hurt or not that good. Or the scheme is messed up.

Honestly, Blanton hasn't been quite as good as I thought he'd be either. I thought he was going to be a big time playmaker, and he really has been sort of pedestrian.

I think the corners need to get a lot more aggressive. Get up on these guys and make them beat you deep. Forget the cushion. Our secondary needs to be ballhawking and making plays. If we're going to blitz and put pressure, it makes no sense to leave the quarterback with open receivers underneath.

--Special teams -- Tausch looks like a keeper, but I'd really like to see a kick of his go to the end zone. The kickoff return unit looks pretty good so far. I'd like to see us break one.

I'm not a big Eric Maust guy though. His punt before the last drive went like 25 yards. If not for that holding penalty on MSU, they would have started that last drive with much better field position than they deserved. I think Turk should get a chance to hit a couple punts in a game just to see what he can do. Maust is mediocre, and he's hurt us with mishits each of the last two weeks.

--PENALTIES - UGH. What is with all the penalties?? Too many late hits and personal fouls. The penalties have been killers. I like the aggressiveness, but we should not be dumb about it.

Then again, the late hit call on Harrison Smith was questionable, and the Sam Young penalty was garbage. So maybe we just need to get away from these Big Ten refs. The officiating in the last two games has really not benefited the Irish. Not sure what to make of it, but it's really hurt this team on multiple occasions. The Armando out of bounds thing, the Floyd touchdown, all the penalties. Some really strange stuff.

--Wildcat -- Man, I don't know what to make of the Wildcat. We did some spectacular things with it on Saturday, but I'm also just feel uneasy about the whole thing for some reason. It just feels like it takes us out of our rhythm a little bit. I won't deny that it worked on Saturday, but we also had some real negative plays in the Wildcat that threw us off.

Personally, I'd rather just stick with the I-formation and run our standard offense. Give me an off tackle run over the Wildcat. For every good Wildcat play we have, we have at least one negative play with it. I'd rather just do what we do best. We're an I-formation/shotgun spread team, and that's where we do most of our damage.

I know why Weis likes it, but I wouldn't miss it if we never ran it again. Then again, Weis has produced one heckuva an offense, so I probably should just drop the subject.

Overall, it was a great win, but I'm not sure what to make of this team at this point. The offense is as good as it's ever been at ND, but the defense is badly in need of work. We'll look brilliant for a stretch, and then listless right after that.

There's been some talk of yesterday as a "signature win," but I think that's a little overstated. It's Michigan State at home. They're a middle of the pack Big Ten team. How is that a signature win?? By proving that we're 3 points better than a 7 win Big Ten team??

Walking out of the stadium, I was excited about the win, but also relieved that we didn't blow that game and ruin the season. I'm happy to be 2-1, but we can play much better than this as a team. It took a superhuman performance from Clausen and our receivers to squeak out a win over a mediocre Big Ten team. Gotta get better every week. If the defense could get it going, maybe we can really get something going in the next few weeks.

While I don't know what this team will end up doing this year, the "fire Charlie" talk on NDNation is silly. I can't believe people are openly discussing replacements after a win.

Whether you think Charlie is a great coach or not, he is not going to get fired after this season if he can win 8-9 games (or 10 for that matter). Jimmy Clausen came to ND to play for Charlie Weis, and we owe it to him to have Charlie on the sideline until he graduates. It would kill his NFL prospects if we have a new coach on the sideline next year. Plus, all these guys who have thrived in the Weis system (Floyd, Tate, Armando, etc) are playing for future NFL jobs as well. I think people need to consider the consequences of running off Weis before we do something like that. Weis has built this program for success in 2009 and 2010, and a lot of players are counting on him being here for both those seasons. There's no use tearing apart the fanbase with the constant speculation. Let the season play out. If we go 6-6 and the team tanks, then make a change. But I think this team will be much better than that.

Two big games coming up with Purdue and Washington. Hopefully the Irish can win both of those games, get to 4-1, and set up a big one with USC on October 17.

2) One last thought on the Floyd injury. First, can't say enough great things about Mike Floyd. That play where he broke his collarbone was a touchdown. He got absolutely robbed. What an incredible player.

Second, I think this offense will be fine without Floyd. It's a big loss, but we have enough receivers and a good running game to rely on now. Plus, Jimmy Clausen. If I was Charlie, I would look to run the ball more and work the middle more with Kyle Rudolph like we did with Fasano and Carlson. So far, we've mainly had Rudolph on the outside, but he could be even more deadly over the middle. He's an impossible matchup for linebackers or DBs. Too big for DBs and too fast for LBs.

I think we could squeeze a half dozen more carries out of this running game as well. Our running game has really looked good so far. If we aren't quite as vertical without Floyd, we should hammer the ground game a little more and keep our defense off the field as long as possible.

Finally, a thought on Mike Floyd's future. What is his future at ND?? Is he going to just come back next year for one year and go to the league?? Is he going to need to stick around for two more years because of injury concerns from pro scouts?? Is he one of those Adrian Peterson guys who is a spectacular player but always seems to get snake bit with injuries??

I always assumed Floyd was a 3 year college player and first round NFL pick, but now his future is a little more uncertain. It would help the team if he had to stay for two more years at ND, but there's not really much he has to prove on the field in college football other than staying healthy. He is too good for college DBs, and I still expect him to only play one more year at ND.

Floyd is one of the best players I've seen at ND, and he will certainly be missed. But I think ND has the horses to keep this offense going strong.

1) WEISND Week 3 Poll:

7) Cal
6) Cincinnati
5) LSU
4) Texas
3) Miami (FL)
2) Florida
1) Alabama

Florida and Bama will probably settle it on the field in the SEC Championship game, but I'm starting to think Alabama might be the best team in the nation this year. I don't think there's a team that I enjoy watching more than the Tide. Defense and power football. Throwback football like the old Lou Holtz ND teams. We're running it down your throat, and there's nothing you can do about it. Ingram and Trent Richardson (phenomenal looking true freshman) are a dynamic duo, Julius Jones is a playmaker, McElroy looks fine, and I love everything about "The Nicktator." Mark Ingram might be the most NFL ready running back in the country. The Tide could be in for a special year.

I have Miami all the way up at #3 because of who they have beaten so far. The Sagarin ratings actually confirm it. I'm a subscriber to the Jay Bilas method of polling. Who have you played, where did you play them, and who have you beat?? Miami has beaten FSU on the road and demolished a ranked Georgia Tech team. Maybe they'll fall apart from here, but they get my #3 spot this week.

Texas got the win against Texas Tech, but they did not impress me Saturday night. Not sure what to make of them this year. I think they'd get whacked by either Florida or Alabama. Plus, their schedule is a joke. I cannot reward a nonconference schedule like that with Louisiana-Monroe, UTEP, Wyoming, and UCF. What a joke. I normally like Texas, but I'm rooting against them this year. The scheduling gods should punish them.

And while I don't think they are anywhere near the #6 team in the country, I am putting the Cincinnati Bearcats there for what they have done on the field. They have now won at Oregon State and at Rutgers, and they've done it with a completely rebuilt defense. To go to Corvallis and win that game convincingly is remarkable when you consider the history of the UC program. Five years ago, they were an objectively worse program than Miami (Ohio). Now, they're going on the road and winning at Oregon State in a game that Oregon State really wanted.

A great day for the Big East in its bid to win back some credibility, and a great day for Brian Kelly and the entire city of Cincinnati. If there's a coach out there doing a better job than Brian Kelly, I have yet to see him. The fact that Demetrius Jones is looking legitimately good as a LINEBACKER (read that again) and is currently their fourth leading tackler is all you need to know about what Brian Kelly is doing at UC. Pound for pound, he is as good as any coach in the nation. I hope UC can come up with the money to keep him there for the rest of his career.

September 20, 2009

The Good, The Bad, The Ugly - Week 2 (Michigan St.)


Another week, another heart-stopping, terrifying experience. Just another day in the life of a Notre Dame fan during the Charlie Weis regime.

After last week’s disaster, it was great to see the boys get a win in a close game. Whether he’s poor in end-game situations, or just damn unlucky, Weis never seems to win the games where a close break or a bounce can decide the outcome. He deserved a break and finally got one.

OFFENSE

The Good

Clausen was outstanding – 22-31 for 300 yds and 2 TDs. He was 10-10 before being sacked in the 2nd quarter and suffering some sort of toe or foot injury. Visibly limping for the rest of the game, Clausen was the victim of several drops and made approximately 3 bad throws the entire game. Just a fantastic effort. Much like last week, Clausen led the Irish back on several huge scoring drives in the 2nd half to seize back the momentum.

Armando Allen is a warrior. Plain and simple. He’s far and away the best RB on the roster and his improvement over the course of his career thus far has been incredible. Between his tough running and his TD pass out of the Wildcat, Allen had a huge impact on this game. 23 rushes for 115 yds, 5.0 yards a carry, including numerous big runs for 1st downs. Jonas Gray also ran well, but its clear he’s going to need some work, especially in pass protection.

Golden Tate stepped up big time after Floyd’s injury, although he did have a key drop in the 3rd quarter that could have ended the game. ND had opened the 3rd quarter with a TD drive to take back the lead and the momentum. Then the defense forced a punt and Tate had a nice return. Had Golden made the catch on the 3-yard line and the Irish punched it in for a TD, I think ND runs away and hides. In any event, Tate made the big play that ended up sealing the win. Clausen spread it around a bit after losing Floyd, but we’re going to have to see more from guys like Kamara, Parris, Evans and/or Walker in the coming weeks.

The OL continues to impress. Solid blocking in the running game and Clausen was given quite a bit of time to throw for most of the day. One of the 2 sacks was definitely on Jonas Gray. Whether this improvement is thanks to Verducci’s influence or the natural maturation of the linemen themselves is difficult to say, but at this point, its comforting to know that Clausen won’t be running for his life for the rest of the year. And its also comforting to know that the Irish might be able to grind out some games on the ground.

The Bad

For much of yesterday, it seemed like the Irish should have been winning by multiple TDs. ND marched up and down the field almost at will but could never seem to deliver the killshot. Between the sloppy penalties, questionable officiating (particularly on the Floyd non-TD) and drops, the offense wasted many opportunities to stretch the lead.

I suppose its not really realistic to expect this offense to score a TD on every possession, but I’m legitimately surprised and disappointed when they don’t move the ball into a position to put points on the board.

The Ugly

For the second year in a row, the Irish will be without the services of Michael Floyd for an extended period. After apparently suffering a broken collarbone, Charlie Weis announced this morning that Floyd will miss the remainder of the regular season. Devastating blow for both Floyd and the Irish. Although I have no doubt that the Irish will be able to continue moving the ball well on offense, it won’t be as easy, or as fun, without #3 on the field.

Floyd’s injury certainly opens the door for one of the other WRs to step up and show what they’ve got. Duval Kamara will most likely get the first opportunity, but expect to see Robby Parris, Shaq Evans, John Goodman and even Deion Walker to get a chance as well.

DEFENSE

The Good

Kyle McCarthy, where would this defense be without you? Once again leading the team in tackles, McCarthy also notched his 3 INT in as many games, sealing the Irish victory in the final minute.

Not much else unfortunately. The run defense was better, but MSU chose to do much of their damage through the air. Tenuta and Randy Hart rotated more bodies along the D-line, getting some solid play from Ian Williams, and getting guys like KLM, Hafis Williams, Cwynar and even Paddy Mullen some good minutes and experience.

The Bad

The secondary, once thought to be the strength of the defense, was awful. Whether it’s the scheme or timidity, the CBs are giving way too much cushion, seemingly content to allow the opposition to bite off 8 yd chunks at will. Darrin Walls was particularly poor, dropping two potential INTs and giving up numerous big passing plays. Harrison Smith has been very quiet this year, but did pick up another silly personal foul on a late hit.

Unless something drastic changes in the coming weeks, we can expect some serious shootouts in the near future with the likes of Purdue and Washington next up on the schedule.

The Ugly

The LBs are simply non-existent this year. I know Weis likes to say that Brian Smith is the best player on this defense, but he sure isn’t showing it. Once again, the constant blitzing failed to hit home, although the game-ending INT was partially caused by a good pass rush.

Its time to take some serious looks at this Tenuta scheme – does he have the players to run his blitz-happy defense? Most would probably say he’s got more talent at ND than he ever had at Ga. Tech. So what’s the problem? Its becoming painfully obvious that Toryan Smith is just too slow to play major college football. And its not just lateral speed. His feet look like they’re stuck in cement when he’s trying to blitz the QB.

SPECIAL TEAMS

The Good

Nick Tausch is looking more and more confident every week. The 47-yarder was beautiful and good from 55 at least. He’s also looked a bit better on the kickoffs, regularly putting the ball down inside the 5 yesterday.

Zeke Motta is showing why Brian Polian can’t keep him off the field. Some really solid kick coverage yesterday out of the freshman from Florida. I’m excited to see what he can bring to the defense next year.

As Dantonio noted in his post-game press conference, Ethan Johnson’s block on MSU’s XP completely changed MSU’s mentality on their last drive. If ND only has a 2-point lead, perhaps Cousins is handing off and running the clock down to attempt a potentially game-winning FG rather than throwing a floater into Kyle McCarthy’s arms.

The Bad

Another big return on the opening kickoff. Fortunately, MSU was forced to punt, but the graduation of David Bruton certainly seems to have left ND with some concerns on kick coverage.

The missed XP in the 1st quarter nearly had a huge impact on the game. Not sure whether this was a timing issue with Tausch or some miscommunication between the snapper and the holder.

The Ugly

The onsides kick recovered by MSU in the 1st half was a great call by Dantonio. Tough to put too much blame on anyone – the kick was perfectly executed and no one on the field was expecting it. Still, big loss of momentum, and the Irish have to be on the lookout for this in the future.

COACHING

The Good

Weis often gets some grief for his “take what the defense gives you” attitude, but this was one day when Charlie completely dictated the pace and style of the game. He came out 5-wide and picked MSU apart in the 1st quarter. I assume by now most of us have realized that Weis offenses are never going to run the ball down your throat (regardless of Weis’ famous “pound it” quote). The Spartans were back on their heels immediately and never really stopped the Irish all day long.

The Bad

The Wildcat formation has been a source of some debate amongst ND fans this year. Allen was much more successful in the Wildcat yesterday, but I was very surprised to see Weis attempt to utilize the Wildcat when trying to run out the clock late in the game. In that situation, I’d prefer to see Weis stick with what he’s familiar.

For the second week in a row, the defining pass on a game-icing drive went to a WR with very little experience. Last week, Shaq Evans failed to cut off his route when he got past the sticks, and wasn’t ready when Clausen’s 3rd down delivery was on him. This week, the 3rd down throw went in the direction of John Goodman. Not sure whether that was by design, but I’d really prefer to see that throw go to Tate, Rudolph or Kamara.

The Ugly

Already discussed the various defensive problems. It will be very interesting to see whether Tenuta will be able to make any adjustments in the coming weeks. ND is going to be facing two teams that like to throw it. But it is incredibly concerning that the Irish have been unable to place any significant pressure on the opposition, either via pass rush or blitzing.

BUCKEYES

Offense – ARMANDO ALLEN. Lots of great, hard running and some huge runs for 1st downs. The TD pass was nice as well. Honorable Mention to Clausen who is, quite simply, a badass.

Defense – KYLE MCCARTHY. We might as well just call this the Honorary Kyle McCarthy Buckeye at this point. Who is going to make all these tackles next year when he’s gone?

Special Teams – NICK TAUSCH. My favorite thing about watching him kick is how high the ball jumps up off his foot. I’ll be shocked if he ever has one of his kicks blocked. Honorable mention to Zeke Motta for his kickoff coverage.

Couple of big games coming up – Purdue is certainly going to be able to move the ball on the ND defense, and Washington is coming off the biggest upset of the year. With the Floyd injury and Clausen now hobbled as well, I would be thrilled if the Irish were 4-1 going into the SC game in mid-October. Hopefully in the meantime, the young receivers and defensive linemen will have the opportunity to get some meaningful minutes that could make the difference between a win and a loss at the end of the year.

September 16, 2009

WEISND Roundtable Week Three Picks: Notre Dame-Michigan State, Georgia-Arkansas, BYU-Florda, Auburn-West Virginia, and more

Well, Saturday was as heartbreaking a day as any in recent memory for ND fans, but there's always another Saturday around the corner to put this team back on the right path. If you are headed up to South Bend this weekend, bring your "A" game and get this team fired up for Michigan State. If the crowd is dead, I fear this team will come out flat. I plan to be lively in the stands on Saturday, and hope the rest of the crowd follows suit.

All is not lost on this season. Among all the bellyaching about the loss to Michigan, ND actually showed a lot of good things. That loss up at Michigan might end up being a speed bump to a great season. Looking forward to what hopefully will be a great day for the Irish.

One final note, a friend of the blog has ventured into the high stakes world of sports merchandise sales, and we figured we'd put in a good word for his site. Teamcanteen.com is selling college and pro apparel across the spectrum, and they always have good deals and some good Notre Dame stuff. If you are the kind of guy or girl who scours the internet in search of a Vancouver Canucks reversible knit hat, this is the place to go.

On to the picks.

Thursday September 17, 2009

Georgia Tech (+4) at Miami (ESPN 7:30pm)

Jeremy: Miami (-4)

I thought there was plenty of room on the Randy Shannon bandwagon, but I find myself suddenly very cramped. The speed and athleticism is back in a big way in Coral Cables, especially on defense. The Canes are definitely only a Jacory Harris injury away from absolute disaster, but I’m smelling a big win at home this weekend. Miami will have to play smart, disciplined, assignment football against the Tech option attack and will probably give up some long runs early, but ultimately the speed and talent in Miami’s front seven is too much for the Yellow Jackets.

Miami 24 GT 17

Dan: Georgia Tech +4

Interesting line here. Georgia Tech did not look great after the trickeration in the first quarter against Clemson. Meanwhile, the U is quickly being proclaimed as "back" by pundits across the country based on the game on Labor Day against FSU. Last year, GT gained almost 500 yards on the ground against Miami. I'm not convinced Miami is improved enough to fully slow the GT option attack. Additionally, GT has dominated this series lately, winning 4 straight. While that might be a good argument for motivation for the Canes, I'm still selling. I think the long lay-off after just 1 game, weak home atmosphere (because usually Thursday nights favor home games), and the return of the real Randy Shannon all do Miami in and GT makes it 5 straight.

Georgia Tech 31 Miami 28

Matt: Miami -4

Maybe it’s just the ACC rubbing off on me, but I think this is the most intriguing game of the weekend. If Miami pulls this off, they will have already beaten two of the top three teams in the conference while most teams are still out there playing the Citadel’s and Middle Tennessee State’s of the world. I just keep going back to that game against FSU where it looked like vintage Miami speed out there on the field. I know they got absolutely SHREDDED by the GT rushing attack this year, but I smell a home win for the Canes. I’ve been firmly on the Randy Shannon bandwagon for over a year – no need to hop off now.

Miami 27 GT 21

Mike: Georgia Tech (+4):

In last year’s game between these two teams, Georgia Tech’s offense ran up, over and through the Miami defense en route to a blowout win in Atlanta. Although the game is in Miami and the Hurricanes appear to be improved from last year, I expect the Jackets to move the ball effectively on the ground after an underwhelming performance last week against Clemson. Miami will benefit from an off week to prepare for Georgia Tech (albeit a truncated off-week because Miami played on Labor Day), but it won’t be enough to close the gap that existed last year. Look for Tech to score the outright upset victory.

Georgia Tech 24 Miami 21

Doug: Miami -4

THE U!! Now that everyone is hyping them up, they'll probably lay an egg, but I gotta pick the Canes here. They got destroyed last year at Georgia Tech, so you would think they've been practicing against the triple option attack all summer. This is a big game for Tech, but this is a huge game for Miami. Randy Shannon can go from the Embattled Randy Shannon to "potential rising star" Randy Shannon.

Maybe FSU is just that bad, but I thought Miami looked great in the opener. This Jacory Harris guy looks like a potential star. I'd take Harris over Terrelle Pryor right now. And yes I agree with everyone who is saying that Tate Forcier is a better quarterback right now than Terrelle Pryor. It's not even close in fact. That Michigan-Ohio State game is going to be verrrrrrrrrrrrrry interesting in Ann Arbor this year.

Miami 27 Georgia Tech 21

Saturday September 19, 2009

Georgia (pick 'em) at Arkansas (ESPN 7:45 pm)

Jeremy: Arkansas

I have no idea what’s going to happen in this game. So in the wild and wacky SEC, I’ll take the Hogs at home. Will be interested to see the continued development of Ryan Mallett under Petrino’s tutelage.

Arkansas 24 Georgia 23

Dan: Arkansas

A shoot out can certainly be expected in Fayetteville. We already know that Georgia has no defense after giving up 61 points in 2 games. The 37 to South Carolina is particularly telling. Combine that with an incredibly potent offense under Bobby Petrino and Ryan Mallett, and Razorbacks could certainly drop 40. Can Georgia keep up? I feel kind of silly picking Arkansas straight up against Georgia, but I expect Cox to turn the ball over a couple times, while Mallett avoids an interception, resulting in a close Arkansas win. But I for sure will feel more comfortable betting the over thank on either team.

Arkansas 38 Georgia 31

Matt: Arkansas

Petrino has breathed life into Arkansas, and Georgia is a little shaky. I’ll go with the home team.

Arkansas 27 Georgia 24

Mike: Arkansas (Pick)

Georgia should be commended for a gutty victory over South Carolina that may have saved their season. Unfortunately, the road gets no easier for Mark Richt, as the Dawgs must travel to Fayetteville to face a much-improved Arkansas team with a high powered offense led by Ryan Mallett and the brothers Petrino. Despite scoring 41 points, Georgia barely gained more than 300 yards and, in the process, did nothing to dispel the notion that they are a struggling outfit on offense. Moreover, the Dawgs yielded a significant chunk of points and yards to a South Carolina offense that is certainly not known as an explosive outfit. Simply put, Arkansas has too much firepower for Georgia.

Arkansas 31 Georgia 21

Doug: Georgia

I thought about making this my upset special of the week, but I feel like this line might be a sucker line. I'm a believer in Arkansas, but Georgia is a legit top 20 team. They have better personnel right now.

Bobby Petrino is going to turn out to be an absolute steal for Arkansas. All you need to do is look at what has happened to Louisville since he's been gone. I'm buying in on them this year. I'm curious to see how Ryan Mallett plays for Arkansas this year. Great career move for him.

Haven't had a chance to watch Georgia yet this year. Big win for them against South Carolina. Man, life is not easy in the SEC. You get rewarded with the big South Carolina by going to Arkansas the following week and LSU two weeks later (with Arizona State in the middle).

Georgia is a good football team though. They have top 15 type talent, and Richt has always won on the road. I think this will be a very good game, but I'm taking the Dawgs.

Georgia 24 Arkansas 21

Texas Tech (+17.5) at Texas (ABC 8pm)

Jeremy: Texas (-17.5)

A revenge special. Colt McCoy will probably cover the spread on his own.

Texas 56 Texas Tech 17

Dan: Texas Tech +17.5

Wow! That's a big spread for the Red Raiders. Could Texas win this game by 3 touchdowns? I guess. But you know that Texas Tech puts up points. Against a team that has the ability to go for at least 30 on just about any team, it is difficult to lay 17.5 points. I realize it has been against inferior competition, but the Red Raiders are averaging 47 points a game. Take the points.

Texas 41 Texas Tech 27

Matt: Texas -17.5 – LOCK OF THE WEEK

Can you say payback?

Texas 52 Texas Tech 21

Mike: Texas (-17.5)

In its typical gutless fashion, Texas Tech has chosen the path of least resistance in its non-conference schedule in 2009, so we really don’t have any genuine evidence regarding the strength of this year’s Red Raider team. As such, I will assume that this will be a typical Mike Leach team: great against weaklings, but not equipped to hang with the heavyweights. Colt McCoy and the Texas offense should run roughshod over the Texas Tech defense, while the Longhorns’ defense will quickly make Taylor Potts realize that he’s not playing North Dakota or Rice.

Texas 47 Texas Tech 21

Doug: Texas Tech +17.5

Death, taxes, and Mike Leach putting up record offensive numbers. Quick fantasy anecdote on Texas Tech. It doesn't even matter who the quarterback is in that offense. If you draft a Texas Tech quarterback, you are getting monster numbers. It's amazing. JTaylor Potts didn't even start last year, and he was the #6 overall pick in the draft this year. Right now, he's the #1 fantasy player overall. You really can't go wrong with a Texas Tech QB even if you've never heard of him until the draft. Same for their receivers. I drafted this Lyle Leong guy who didn't even start last year, and he had 9 catches, 117 yards, and 3 touchdowns last week. Just keep the faith in Mike Leach.

Texas is good, but this line is a little high. Texas is getting a little bit too much respect here. The only team I would take on a line like this one is Florida.

Longhorns will get it done at home, but I could see this game being close.

Texas 31 Texas Tech 24

Nebraska (+4.5) at Virginia Tech (ABC 3:30pm)

Jeremy: Nebraska (+4.5)

Are the Shirts back?? We’ll certainly find out this weekend. Nebraska has been flying under the radar a bit so far this season but a big win in what is effectively a road game against a solid opponent would go a long way to catapulting the Huskers back into the national picture. Va Tech slinks back to Blacksburg with 2 tough losses in September.

Nebraska 27 Va Tech 23

Dan: Nebraska +4.5

This is a chance for Nebraska and Bo Pelini to prove that they are really back on their way to being a National powerhouse. VT has not last home to a non-conference opponent in 31 straight. Taking a first year starter into Blacksburg is certainly a daunting task for the Huskers. VT against Alabama wore down and was beaten more soundly than the score really represents. I am really torn on whether or not the Huskers can pull off the win at VT, but fairly confident they can at least get the cover. Don't be surprised to see a full upset, but I'll stick with a close VT win.

Virginia tech 21 Nebraska 20

Matt: Nebraska +4.5

Would love to get a glimpse of this game just to see how effective Big Red Nation is at invading our nation’s capital. I mean, this should be practically a VT home game, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s 50/50. Ryan Williams had a monster game against Marshall – we’ll see if he can do it against the Blackshirts.

Virginia Tech 17 Nebraska 14

Mike: Virginia Tech- Lock of the Week (-4.5):

Last year, a seemingly inept Virginia Tech squad stumbled into Lincoln and defeated the Huskers rather soundly. The Hokies should be even better this year despite an early setback against Alabama and they will benefit from some home cooking at Lane Stadium. I am really not sure what to expect from Nebraska, which has rolled over two tomato can opponents thus far in 2009, but I am not counting on a big performance from a QB, Zac Lee, who will be making his first career road start against a tough defense. Look for Bud Foster’s defense to make life very difficult for Lee and the Huskers this weekend.

Virginia Tech 31 Nebraska 14

Doug: Virginia Tech -4.5 - LOCK OF THE WEEK

Big game right here. Gotta hand it to Virginia Tech for their nonconference schedule. Alabama and Nebraska?? That's strong.

Nebraska reminds me a little of ND. They have a favorable schedule, they look like they are better, but they haven't really done it against any good teams. Good offensive team, but the jury is out on their defense. I'm looking at their schedule, and they might really go off on a run if they can pull this game out at Virginia Tech. They don't play Oklahoma State or Texas this year.

I like Bo Pelini though. New quarterback with Zac Lee, but people are probably expecting him to make a run at the Big 12 North title this year. That's gotta be the goal if you're the head coach at Nebraska. Kansas and Missouri and those teams don't have the tradition of Nebraska.

I'll take Va Tech though. Va Tech took it to Nebraska last year, and Lane Stadium is a tough place to win. Frank Beamer has his early season loss out of the way, and now they'll quietly go about winning 10 games. This Ryan Williams guy they have now at running back is a beast.

I'll take the Hokies and the points.

Virginia Tech 31 Nebraska 21

Florida State (+7) at BYU (Versus Network 7pm)

Jeremy: Florida St. (+7)

Tough to believe that the Noles are getting this many points against BYU, even in Provo. I’m not sure that Saint Bobby can pull out a W, but Mickey Andrews’ D will keep this one within a TD. And I guess we’ll have to fire up the BYU title game talk. Fantastic.

BYU 28 FSU 27

Dan: Florida State +7

Wow! How the mighty have fallen. First of all, what the hell is Florida State doing playing a road game at BYU? Who scheduled that? I guess I respect the audacity, but sure question the decision. Secondly, a touchdown dog? I don't care that BYU is ranked higher or played better so far. It's the Seminoles! The only part that is a little scary is that BYU's strength (passing offense) matches up well with FSU's weakness (passing defense). If BYU can get a couple quick scores early without answers from FSU, will the FSU players roll over? I suppose that is certainly a cause for concern. But I just can't convince myself to take the once vaunted Seminoles to lose by more than a TD to a Mountain West team.

BYU 31 Florida State 28

Matt: BYU -7

I can’t believe Bobby Bowden’s corpse agreed to play this game. Winning by a hair against Jacksonville St. doesn’t exactly inspire confidence that they’ll show up in Provo.

BYU 34 FSU24

Mike: Florida State (+7)

This pick, admittedly, is largely a product of my desire to avoid having to hear about BYU as a national championship contender rather than an in-depth analysis of this matchup. I will say, however, that notwithstanding Florida State’s lame effort last week at home against Jacksonville State, the Seminoles are well equipped to win at Provo if they are amply motivated. Christian Ponder appears to be poised for a breakout season (despite FSU’s struggles in the running game) and Mickey Andrews should be able to coax a strong performance out of his defense. BYU might turn out to be pretty good, but a victory over an Oklahoma team sans Sam Bradford is not enough for me to be convinced yet.

Florida State 27 BYU 24

Doug: Florida State +7

Versus is still on the air?? I didn't know they were still doing games. Thought I had read something about them having problems getting on cable providers. Guess there's still an appetite for the NHL and Mountain West football.

Cmon, can I really pick BYU here?? Feels like a sucker line. This game is going to look like Remember the Titans or something. An all black team against an all white team. The battle of the races. With apologies to my white brethren, I'll take my chances with a team full of African-Americans against all those white guys in Provo. If Florida State shows up to play in this game, they have a great chance to hang around or win. It comes down to material. FSU has better material than BYU even though they are much less disciplined.

Then again, Florida State almost loss to Jacksonville State last week. That would have been a horrific loss, but nothing surprises me with Bobby Bowden anymore. He lost control of that program years ago. Someone at FSU is going to have to get some guts and nudge him aside. They need new blood at the top.

Final note: Great move by Ryan Perilloux to go down to Jacksonville State. I hope he resurrects his career down there. Maybe he's a thug and a little crazy, but someone will take a chance on him in the NFL if he plays well at JSU.

BYU 24 FSU 20

Cincinnati (+1) at Oregon State (FSN 6:45pm)

Jeremy: Cincinnati (+1) – LOCK OF THE WEEK

If Brian Kelly takes the Bearcats out to Corvallis and beats Oregon St., will he become an acceptable head coaching candidate for the ND faithful? Can’t say I’ve really understood all the negative talk about him, but I think he’s doing a fantastic job. This would be a program-defining type win in my opinion, and I think he gets it.

Cincy 23 OSU 20

Dan: Cincinnati +1 – LOCK OF THE WEEK

This is another line that has me scratching my head. Cincinnati can score points in bunches. They have a very underrated, scrappy offense. Jacob Ramsey is averaging 9.5 yards a carry (only 15 carries, but still!) Tony Pike is playing great. Meanwhile, Oregon State has only given up 28 points in 2 games and Jacquizz Rogers is off to a great start. However Rogers is a little banged up, and I think this Cincy team has something special going. I think Cincy wins easily.

Cincinnati 31 Oregon state 20

Matt: Cincy +1

Weird line. Really shows that the Big East is getting no respect. I think UC straight up wins this game. They seem to have the defense to slow down Quizz Rodgers.

UC 28 OSU 24

Mike: Oregon State (-1)

Cincinnati may be well on its way to another Big East title, but they are facing a big step-up in class this weekend in Corvallis when compared to their first two opponents. Although Oregon State is inexperienced on defense, Mike Riley has shown a knack for plugging in new faces on defense without skipping a beat. More importantly, you can expect that the Beavers’ quarterback, Sean Canfield, will perform at the level of excellence that has become customary for all of those who share his surname.

Oregon State 31 Cincinnati 27

Doug: Oregon State -1

It breaks my heart to pick against the Bearcats here, but Oregon State is a very good program with better athletes. Oregon State not only has talented high school players, but they always have a few very good JUCOs to fill in the gaps. I would be thrilled to see Cincy hang tough in this game, but it's a road game in a crazy environment in Corvallis. Very tough to come out of there with a win even if Oregon State has struggled so far and almost lost to UNLV last week. I feel like this game will be similar to Cincy's game against Virginia Tech in the Orange Bowl. UC will be competitive, but won't quite have the personnel in the front seven or on the offensive line to control this game. Maybe someday, but it's not quite there yet.

With that said, I wanted to comment on how excited people are about Cincinnati football right now. It has reached the point where I think Cincinnati is becoming a legit UC town and not just a hodge podge of pockets of college football fan interest (ND, OSU, UK, UC, Michigan, IU, etc). I think people are really excited to see this team against Oregon State on Saturday. I know I'm definitely going to be finding somewhere to watch the game in the South Bend area after the ND game. How is this game on FSN and not one of the big boy networks?? I hope it is a national broadcast and not some regional act where people can't watch the game.

Of course, all of this success is owed to one person and one person only: Brian Kelly. The man has galvanized the city like no sports personality since Bob Huggins. With the Bengals and Reds flailing away year after year after year, UC is really in a position to strike and carve out a strong college football niche in southwest Ohio.

As for the larger picture, there's actually a lot of talk from the UC fans lately about whether UC is the best program in the state of Ohio right now. That's a little much, but I think UC people at least have an argument these days. UC plays an exciting, attacking brand of football. Ohio State tries to win every game 20-17. If you were a recruit, wouldn't you at least think about going to UC and playing that style of football?? Five years ago, it would have never even been up for consideration. UC has definitely closed the gap to some degree.

I don't think Cincinnati can ever get onto Ohio State's level in terms of prestige, but they aren't going away as long as Brian Kelly stays around. This is not a fluke. They have legitimate D-I facilities, an improved stadium environment, a good setup in the Big East, and a decent recruiting base in Ohio and Kentucky. Brian Kelly has shown the ability to take 2-3 star guys and coach them up to 4 star type quality. Look at how many guys they had drafted last year. Not one of those guys was anything above a 2 star recruit. Same goes for Tony Pike and Mardy Gilyard this year. Those guys were nobody recruits, and now looking like 1st or 2nd round NFL draft picks. Honestly, if UC shocks the world and beats Oregon State, Tony Pike deserves some consideration for the Heisman. He's been spectacular through two games.

Cincy needs to quietly talk to Kelly and see what they can do to keep him around for the next ten years. I have a feeling that someone is eventually going to come hard after him, and UC cannot afford to lose him. If Kelly leaves, all the momentum is out the door and the next hire could be a disaster. I personally think Brian Kelly is one of the best coaches in America. UC is lucky to have him, and they need to do everything possible to keep him around.

One final point here. If I was the governor of the state of Ohio, I would mandate that Ohio State and Cincinnati play every year. Why not settle this little rivalry on the field?? You could do it in a home-neutral setup with one game at the Shoe and one game at Paul Brown Stadium. You have two BCS programs in the state, and they don't play each other?? Huh?? Why does Ohio State have that much clout to be able to duck that game?? It should be like any other state where they have mandated that the schools play (Georgia-Georgia Tech, etc). Man up, Tressel. Come down to Paul Brown and take on the Bearcats. My prediction is that UC would win that game this year.
Back to the game though. Mike Riley is an outstanding coach, and I would be shocked if they don't find a way to beat an outmanned Cincy team.

Oregon State 31 Cincinnati 27

West Virginia (+7) at Auburn (ESPN2 7:45pm)

Jeremy: West Virginia (+7)

I don’t think the Mountaineers win this game, but I think they keep it close throughout and lose a heartbreaker on the road. Interesting that Chizik is getting so much praise so early down at Auburn – he was basically run out of Ames on a rail and it looked like his once-promising head coaching career was over. Maybe this wasn’t such a bad hire after all?

Auburn 38 WVU 35

Dan: Auburn -7

Auburn has gotten off to a great start scoring points in bunches. West Virginia has yet to play anyone of consequence and Bill Stewart is still their coach. It's a night game between a Big East team and an SEC team in an SEC stadium. Enough said.

Auburn 34 West Virginia 17

Matt: West Virginia +7

My upset special of the week. Do not sleep on West Virginia with Jarrett Brown at QB. He’s a much better passer than Pat White. I know that Auburn has put up MONSTER offensive numbers with ol’ Gus Malzahn on board, but WV is a big step up in competition from LA Tech and Miss State. I think West Virginia goes on the road into SEC country and pulls out the victory. Big East pride!

West Virginia 41 Auburn 35

Mike: West Virginia (+7)

There is something very unsettling about casting one’s lot with Bill Stewart in a road game against an SEC foe, but I need to see more from Auburn before I can take them as a home favorite against a quality opponent. Despite my doubts regarding Stewart’s coaching acumen, I believe that the visiting Mountaineers are explosive enough on both sides of the ball to move the ball offensively and to slow the retooled Tigers offense led by Gus Malzahn. Moreover, while on the topic of leadership, this will be the first real test for Gene Chizik at Auburn, who hasn’t exactly shown himself to be a latter-day Bear Bryant in his first few years as a head coach. This should be an entertaining evening battle, so hopefully I won’t be blacked out drunk from the Notre Dame game by the time this contest is underway.

Auburn 23 West Virginia 21

Doug: Auburn -7

All right, I'm buying in Auburn fans. I'm hearing some good stuff about their offense this year. Maybe Gene Chizik will turn out to be a great hire for them.

Big game for both programs. West Virginia's offense has been dangerous with Jarrett Brown running the show at quarterback. He's turned out to be a fantasy gem and a possible NFL draft pick. Guess we'll see how they hold up at night in Auburn.

As for Auburn, their offense has been really explosive so far with this new spread look from Gus Malzahn. I'm buying in. Sounds like it has taken a year for things to click, and now they are blowing up offensively.

I think the Tigers roll and make a statement to the nation. They'll be ranked on Monday.

Auburn 35 WVU 27

Michigan State (+11) at ND (NBC Sports 3:30pm)

Jeremy: Notre Dame

Couldn’t bring myself to talk about last week’s game. Apart from the ’05 SC game, I can’t remember a more brutal loss. Here’s hoping a more vanilla offense will allow Tenuta and the Irish D to get back on track. This game is going to tell me quite a bit about this team. I was very pleased to see the Irish fight back multiple times against Michigan. The Weis teams of ’08, ’07 and probably even ’06 would have probably rolled over and died after the 1st half KO return. Instead, they fought back from two 11-point deficits, including one in the 4th quarter, to take the lead.

I expect the Irish to come out firing on all cylinders this week against the Spartans. They were sick of hearing about the bowl loss streak, so they went out and pounded Hawaii. I’m thinking they’re probably pretty sick of hearing about the losses at home to MSU also. I watched a good portion of the MSU-CMU game last week and wasn’t too impressed with anything MSU did, either offensively or defensively. The Irish roll this week.

ND 38 MSU 17

Dan: Notre Dame (no spread)

Not going to pick this one against the spread but straight up as I think that's how we do Notre Dame games. This is a must win game for Notre Dame. I don't think there has been a game we have needed more in quite some time. Of course, that is kind of scary because we have consistently failed in our important games over the past 5 years. Throw in the fact that we haven't beaten MSU in Notre Dame Stadium since Lou Holtz roamed the sidelines and it's enough to give you a migraine. That doesn't even cover the fact that D'Antonio will have his squad focused after a choke job at home against Central Michigan. But even despite last week’s debacle loss to UM, I feel like there is something different about this ND team. There is some corner that has been turned or started to have been turned. I like ND to win, though I don't know about covering 11.

Matt: Notre Dame

Last week was the most disappointing and infuriating loss I can remember in quite some time. I didn’t know whether to cry or throw my beer across the bar. So I did both. I don’t have the time or energy to break this bad boy down so I’ll just say this. Notre Dame should win. If they don’t, Charlie Weis is dead to me. Simple as that.

Notre Dame 41 Michigan State 37

Mike: Michigan State (+11)

Although Central Michigan needed an onside kick to beat Michigan State, there was nothing fluky about the Chippewas’ win. CMU stifled Michigan State’s running game and pushed around MSU’s defensive line throughout the game, so it does not appear that Mark Dantonio has a particularly imposing outfit this year. Still, I worry about psychological aspect of this game. Sparty is always fired up to play ND, but the converse is not always true, particularly after a crushing loss. As with last week, ND is superior to Sparty at virtually every position, but, in typical Weisian fashion, the Irish will make more mistakes and give this game away.

Michigan State 30 Notre Dame 27

Doug: Notre Dame

I'm headed up to South Bend on Saturday, and hope that we improve our record to 2-0 at home. Big game for this program.

Honestly, I know there are a lot of doomsday feelings around the ND program right now, but I think it's too early to write off the season just yet. Having had a chance to reflect on last weekend's game a little bit, I feel much better about where this team is at. This team is a very impressive offensive football team. Every time I click on ESPN.com article or blog or chat, the Ivan Maisels of the world have commented on how impressed they were with ND last weekend. I'm starting to agree. When you compare this team to what we looked like last year, it's a better football team that has an opportunity to become a really good football team at the end of the year. The running game is dramatically better. Armando Allen is a legitimate feature back, the offensive line is opening up holes and giving Jimmy Clausen all day to throw, Clausen is playing great football, and the receivers are spectacular. The defense is still a work in progress, but at least there are some promising players on the defense. It's not like we're trotting out MAC talent back there. It might just be a matter of tweaking a couple things, and off we go.

I think this team has the abilty to get hot and win a bunch of games this year. I could obviously be wrong, and I think we'll learn a lot on Saturday about this team's psyche. If we show up inspired and play with a killer instinct, I see no reason why ND shouldn't win this game by double digits. If we show up feeling sorry for ourselves or not taking MSU seriously, we'll be in a dogfight.

ND is the better football team in this game. It's not even a question. ND has experienced players up and down the roster. Michigan State has a new quarterback, new linemen, new running backs, and new receivers. They are in a complete rebuild. I'm not even sure why there was so much fear about MSU going into the season. They're a mediocre Big Ten team that doesn't have the personnel to match up with the elite teams.

Some keys to the game:

1) What to expect of the ND defense -- Where is the ND defense headed from here after that disappointing performance on Saturday?? Are we going to have personnel changes? If so, what changes??

Some changes I would consider making:

-Move Ethan Johnson to defensive end -- I think it's time to make that move. Get him back to end, put KLM and Kerry Neal in a rotation at the other end spot, and move Cwynar or Hafis Williams into the starting spot at defensive tackle. What do we have to lose?? It's not like the current alignment is working. Our defensive line has been gashed in two straight games, and we haven't gotten enough pressure on the quarterback.

4-3 defenses are at their best when you have two beefy DTs to clog the middle and take on blockers. Ethan Johnson is not a DT. This team dosen't stop the run with him in the middle. He needs to be on the end wreaking havoc and stopping the run. Cwynar at least looks like a capable DT. Might as well get him in there and see what he can do.

--Get Te'o in the lineup -- Toryan Smith is another one of those Victor Abiamiri All-Stars. He's great against Navy and Nevada, but show me what you can do against the big boys. Te'o is a physical player who needs to get more time to get him ready for USC. I think he's gotta be on the field for more snaps this Saturday

--Get more input from Corwin Brown -- What exactly is Corwin Brown's role on this defense?? Isn't he supposed to be one of the defensive coordinators?? Why not see if this guy can light a fire under our defense??

Some changes I would not make at this time:

--Go back to the 3-4 defense -- NO!! We're actually talking about this?? That is the last thing I would do. If we go back to the 3-4, that is just asking for teams to run all over us again. I know they already are, but the 3-4 would only worsen the problem. We'd be replacing a 290 pound DT with a 235 pound linebacker in our front seven. A coach like Mark Dantonio would be licking his chops about that move.

The 4-3 is the best fit for this program. We need as much beef as we can on our defense, and "going small" with the 3-4 is not going to do us any good. We just need our defensive linemen to play better. That will come as they get older.

I do not want to go back to the 3-4 unless we suddenly find a 320 pound NT and a couple 285 pound defensive ends. Last time I checked, we don't have any of those guys on our roster. Stay with the 4-3.

Bottom line for ND's defense this week. Stop the run and make Michigan State one-dimensional. I can't picture Michigan State scoring a bunch of points with that inexperienced offense, but we also can't let them get into a rhythm. If we can shut down their running game, I think we'll get some INTs and big plays out of the defense. In fact, I'm going on record for a Robert Blanton interception on Saturday.

2) The Clausen/Tate/Floyd/Rudolph show -- Can we just make this an acronym since I feel like this is going to be a key to every week for us?? The CTFR show. The more those guys do, the better chance we have to win the game. I've been doing some reading on MSU's defense, and their defensive line has trouble getting a pass rush. Clausen and company should have plenty of time to do a lot of damage through the air. One mild request: Can we just feed Mike Floyd this week?? I'm going against Golden Tate in fantasy football. I love Golden Tate, but I'm not opposed to 4 catches for 40 yards out of him this week while the rest of the fellas pile up the stats.

It might be time to add Armando Allen into the "ND weapons" category based on how he played last week. I hope he plays like that all year. If so, this offense could be really potent.

3) How good is Sparty?? -- As noted above, I've been reading up on Sparty a little bit, and here's what I can glean about them:

--People are pleased with Kirk Cousins as their quarterback, but this Keith Nichol guy (transfer from Oklahoma) gets a lot of snaps as well as their #2 guy. Dantonio seems determined to play both guys, which might not be the best strategy. Cousins is more of a thrower, and Nichol is more of a runner. Kind of an interesting contrast there.
--Their running backs are talented but young; could be a strength in 2010, but not right now
--Their offensive line is really banged up and having a trouble getting a push; sounds like Sparty is more of a "throw to set up the run" team this year, which is the opposite of what they've been
--Linebackers and secondary are very good, but defensive line is pedestrian and doesn't get a pass rush. As we all know, games are won up front

From what I've been able to read, they really are having a tough time running the ball and getting a pass rush. On paper, both of those areas seem to bode well for ND. If Sparty is no threat to run and can't get to Jimmy Clausen, ND should be in great shape to win this game.

Quick note on our offensive line. Two thumbs up for the offensive line so far. I haven't heard one complaint about that unit. Have we given up a sack so far this year?? I'm not even sure Clausen has been touched, and he hasn't thrown an INT yet. Keep it up.

4) The psychological game and the coaching matchup --

Big question here. Where are these teams mentally?? Both were probably devastated but in different ways. Michigan State completely laid down against Central Michigan. Were they looking ahead or just not that good?? ND played their butts off, but came up short. Are we going to be hung over from the Michigan game or ready to make a statement in week three?? Probably won't know until they run out of the tunnel.

The coaching matchup is interesting because I think there's a false perception that Dantonio is a far superior coach to Weis. I like Dantonio, but people talk about that guy like he's the next Nick Saban. Newsflash: He's not. He had middling success at Cincinnati, and now he's producing decent teams at Michigan State. How is that any different from what those schools have always done?? I would be willing to bet that his winning percentages at both schools are similar to their winning percentages over the last 25 years.

From what I've heard from UC people who knew Dantonio well, the difference between him Dantonio and Kelly has been night and day. I kind of get the impression that Dantonio is a little bit of a meathead. His prescription for every issue was for the guys to just play with more emotion whereas Kelly approaches each game by focusing on extreme detail and preparation. Different strokes I guess, but Kelly's teams have performed markedly better.

Dantonio's style is pretty predictable. He wants to play the physical style of football. Unfortunately for him, it sounds like he doesn't have the personnel to do it this year. They are getting hurt by some bad recruiting by John L Smith along the lines, and they are young at running back. It's not a recipe for a ball control, power game.

Prediction: I was really worried heading into the Michigan game for a multitude of reasons (Michigan was hungry, road game, Rich Rodriguez is an outstanding coach, difficult offense to prepare for), but I feel very confident heading into this game. ND is a good football team. From what I've seen so far, this is the best team Weis has had since 2005.

There is no reason for ND not to win this game comfortably. Michigan State is not a good football team this year. They're a 7 win type team. I think Sparty will get blown out several times this year. If we have any aspirations of being a quality team, we should do the same. If we can get a big win, the fans might start rallying around this team. Weis needs to quiet down the "hot seat" talk, and a big win is the only way to put that to rest.

Michigan State is probably going to come out fired up and might try some tricks to get an early lead and put us on our heels. We just gotta do what we do well. Keep them out of the end zone on defense even if they do move the ball, and let Clausen and company light up the scoreboard. No turnovers, no sluggish starts. Play balanced football on offense, and I see no reason for ND to lose. Hopefully a big win over Sparty will give this team some momentum for the next couple weeks before the USC game.

ND 34 MSU 20

Bonus Picks:

Matt --

Florida -29.5

Ok, so they didn’t cover the 73 point spread last week, but I mean this is like taking candy from a baby. Tennessee was helpless on offense last week against a mediocre PAC 10 team. Urban is going to go so far out of his way to lay the smack on Kiffin, that women and children should just avoid watching this altogether.

Florida 61 Tennessee 13

Doug --

Florida -29 over Tennessee -- Man, I can't believe we're not previewing this game after all of the hub bub in the offseason. I hope Florida wins this game by 50, and Kiffin goes back to Knoxville with his tail between his legs.

Great to have Verne Lundquist and Gary Danielson back in our lives. God bless CBS Sports!!

Washington +20.5 against USC - I'm going on record saying that this game will be a 7 point game in the fourth quarter. USC sleep walks at least 2-3 times a year, and I think we'll see their first no show effort this weekend. Washington might be the most improved team in the country not named Michigan.

Last Week:

Jeremy: 1-5
Dan: 1-5
Matt: 1-5
Mike: 3-3
Doug: 1-5

Season:

Jeremy: 5-9
Dan: 6-8
Matt: 5-9
Mike: 7-7
Doug: 4-10

Lock of the Weeks:

Jeremy: 0-1
Dan: 1-1
Matt: 0-2
Mike: 1-0
Doug: 1-1

Notre Dame-Southern Mississippi series on the horizon??

One of our readers has chimed in via email with a rumor of a possible deal for a Notre Dame-Southern Mississippi series starting in 2010. I don't know how you couldn't trust someone with a screen name like Art Vandalay (yup, these are our readers?), but I haven't been able to confirm this rumor. Word from our insider is that Southern Mississippi would come to Notre Dame in 2010 with a return neutral site game in the Super Dome in New Orleans. Southern Miss is only an hour from New Orleans, so presumably they would bring a lot of fans to the Dome. Gotta think this would be a huge game for the Southern Miss fans and for the entire New Orleans area.

If these rumors are true, here's how the ND football schedule would be shaping up for 2010:

S04 PURDUE
S11 MICHIGAN
S18 @ Michigan St.
S25 STANFORD
O02 @ Boston College
O09 PITTSBURGH
O23 @ Navy (NY/NJ)
O30 Tulsa
N7 Southern Miss
N13 Utah
N20 Army (Yankee Stadium)
N27 @ Southern Cal

Nothing against our friends from Tulsa and Southern Miss, but I didn't think I'd see the day where we'd have not one, but two, Conference USA schools on our schedule in November. I could live with one of those games, but do we really need to play both of them?? Throw in Army, and that's not exactly murderer's row right there leading up to Southern Cal. Perhaps that rumored TCU game would not be looking quite as bad right about now?? I'd have no problem opening the year with Southern Miss or Tulsa (similar to what we did with Nevada), but there have to be better options for November than Southern Miss.

Who is going to attend those games in November?? (well, I can think of one person) Southern Miss and Tulsa?? We have enough problems getting people to South Bend for Michigan State these days. Are we really going to sell out games against Southern Miss and Tulsa in November?? At what point do all these buy games no longer make financial sense?? Or are the home game dollars that lucrative that it doesn't matter who we schedule as long as people show up and buy $50 sweatshirts by the armful at the book store??

And not only that, but we might play them at a neutral site as well?? Two games against Southern Miss?? Really?

Might want to keep an eye on how Southern Miss and Tulsa look this year in case they do end up on the schedule. The Golden Eagles have gotten off to a 2-0 start and have Virginia and Kansas coming up on the schedule. Tulsa is sort of like the Nevada of the Midwest with a potent offense that comes mainly against CUSA caliber defenses.

The second half of that schedule is not going to win us a lot of friends among the pollsters. Playing Navy, Tulsa, Southern Miss, Utah, Army all in a row is the type of schedule you'd see from someone like East Carolina. Or Memphis. Certainly not Notre Dame. But that's what we could be looking at in 2010.

The good news is that Michigan and USC look like they'll be very good, and Utah might end up being a top 15 type team if they continue to build their program. This schedule really needs one more big game, but I would expect that at least 2-3 teams will be ranked when we play them next year.

Anyway, guess we'll have to stay tuned for any announcements from the athletic department. Swarbrick does not seem to be in any hurry to finalize the 2010 schedule, which could be a good thing or just a delay tactic. Definitely the latest we have ever gone without announcing the completed schedule. Even the Tulsa game has not been announced yet although it appears likely to happen on October 30. Is Swarbrick trying to find the right time to sneak in a Southern Miss announcement or is he out there hunting for a big time home and home series?? Stay tuned.

Swarbrick, before you finalize that 2010 game, think about what you are doing to the brand. I understand that Kevin White put you in a bind and that there aren't a lot of options, but you are ultimately the guy in charge right now. The 2010 schedule is still not finalized, and you still have the final say on how it will be set up. This is Notre Dame. At some point, you gotta give up a couple dollars to protect our integrity as a football power and as an independent. The long term value to the brand will outweigh the short term financial gain. I think you can do better than Southern Miss.

September 14, 2009

Heartbreak City in the Big House: Breaking down ND-Michigan, thoughts on Charlie Weis, Michigan, and the new look Big House

ND fans, I owe you an apology. I think I might be a curse on this program or something, especially when we're away from home. I've been to four road games in the last two years and two bowl games in the last four years and we've lost all of them. 0-6 for me seeing ND outside of ND stadium since I walked out of Heinz Field after ND demolished Pitt in the opener of the Charlie Weis era in 2005. Charlie, if you want to send me a check to keep me from going to the Pitt game this year, by all means do so. I would understand.

Just an excruciating loss on Saturday. The saddest part of being an ND fan these days is that I now spend these games just waiting for the other shoe to drop. And that's exactly what happened. As I was standing there in the upper deck of the Big House watching Greg Matthews pull in that catch in the end zone, it felt like deja vu from every heartbreaking loss we've had in recent years. I think every ND fan could probably say the same wherever they happened to be watching the game. In terms of most devastating losses, that one might be right up there at the top.

And yet as I walked out of the stadium, I felt strangely optimistic about what I had seen out there on the field. Michigan fans were giving us some of the usual taunts that you would expect following a brutal loss in a hostile environment, but I felt like ND had nothing to be ashamed of. We had really battled, played just about as well as we could offensively, and looked like a quality football team for most of the afternoon. I was, dare I say, proud of our effort. Honestly, what else could you ask out of guys like Clausen and Floyd and Armando Allen and Kyle McCarthy and others?? Just about everyone on this team laid it all on the line. ND-Michigan is always wacky with it coming early in the year, and losing a game up there is nothing to really be ashamed of when we played our guts out and did enough to win that game.

But as we got into the car and started driving home and allowed the game to settle in for a bit, the distaste about letting a game slip away that we should have won really started getting to me. This wasn't your father's Michigan. We lost to an unranked Michigan team that went 3-9 last year and was starting a freshman quarterback.This was a Michigan team that has been ravaged by roster problems over the last year or so and has nowhere near the talent that we have accumulated in the last five years. This was supposed to be our year. This was supposed to be the year when the Irish started winning these types of games and putting teams away. How could we lose that game?? How was the game even that close??

Of course, my thoughts eventually always circle back to one person: Charles Joseph Weis.

Look, I think some of the Charlie criticism and demands to fire him are an overreaction. NDNation is an abomination. If you don't think this team is significantly better this year, you're being irrational. Charlie has done a lot of good with this program. Overall, this team definitely looks improved from last year, and some of the problems of the past are now looking like team strengths. The running game looked phenomenal on Saturday. Wasn't that the big complaint about Weis?? That we couldn't run the ball?? When you look at the amount of young talent that he has brought into this program and compare it to what we had before he came here, there's really no comparison. There are NFL players up and down this roster, and some of them are first round picks. When was the last time we had this much talent?? Floyd is an absolute superstar, Clausen is a star, Tate is a star, Armando Allen is suddenly looking like a man possessed, the line is playing better, the young depth is really good. 4-5 years ago, you couldn't even come up with three guys on the team who would be someday playing on Sunday. Now it's like fifteen guys.

But at what point does all this positive momentum start translating into wins??!! When is Charlie Weis going to win a big ball game??

It just seems like we can't put it together as a team. We step up in one area, and then fall apart in another area. Some games it's defense, some games it's mental toughness, some games it's special teams, some games it's the offense, some games it's turnovers, some games it's stupid penalties. The bottom line is this: WE KEEP LOSING.

The same excuses year after year are wearing thin. We made these exact same excuses last year when we lost to North Carolina. "Just wait, this team is going to turn it on!! Look at how potent the offense is!! We ran the ball better!" People were saying the same things after the North Carolina game that they are now.

This game felt like a carbon copy of the UNC game from last year. We took control early, looked like the better team for 30 minutes, Weis gets outcoached in the 3rd quarter by head coaches who made better adjustments (more on that later), we lost our lead, and then we had to go into scramble mode to get back into the game. Valiant comeback by our players, but we should have never needed a comeback effort in either game.

If this had been Davie who had lost this game, we would be killing him. KILLING HIM. "Davie can't manage the clock! Davie's teams are too undisciplined and get too many penalties!! Why are we getting excessive celebration penalties when we should be closing out the game??" I remember it. I was there at ND at the time. If this was Davie or Willingham blowing the clock management or getting outadjusted in the second half, we'd be crucifying him. Remember the 1999 season where we killed Davie for losing the Michigan and Purdue games in bizarre fashion?? People still talk about those games like Davie killed their children. And those Michigan and Purdue teams were far better squads than they are now. Drew freaking Brees was Purdue's QB in 1999.

It's amazing to me how much the standards have dropped at ND. I know it's encouraging to see the team playing better, but how about winning the game while we're at it?? You'd think Charlie Weis lost to a late 1990s loaded Michigan team the way people are talking about this game. MICHIGAN ISN'T ANY GOOD!! Their defense is weak, they have a freshman qb, and they have no depth. We talk up these mediocre teams that beat us like Georgia Tech and UNC, and then we look back and they're 7-5/8-4 on the year. That's what will probably happen to Michigan. They are a very flawed team. A really good team would have beaten them by three touchdowns.

And yet, I keep hearing the same stuff. "PATIENCE!! Charlie will come around! Maybe he'll win out!!!"

My response is this. When are we going to win some ballgames??

He's 3-7 in his last 10 games against BCS schools. And one of those wins was over an 0-12 Washington team. The other ones were over Purdue and Stanford. He's 11-18 in his last 29 games. Read that last sentence again. 11-18!! Are you kidding me?? When did we turn into Minnesota?? When did we become Iowa State?? Unless we're playing Nevada or Hawaii or Navy or some other mid-major, we lose the game. Isn't there a pattern developing at this point?? WHO HAS HE BEATEN?? Are we paying him $4.2 million a year to beat Nevada and Stanford??

And this was a game that we actually played well in and were up for. We were cranked up for Michigan like we usually are early in the year. What happens when we lay our traditional 2-3 eggs as the season goes along like we've done every year under Weis?? What happens when we don't show up ready to play against somebody like Pitt or BC?? If we can't beat a mediocre Michigan team when we actually played well, why would there be any confidence that we're going to suddenly get red hot and win out?? Does anyone really think we're going to play 60 minutes of great football week in and week out from here on out?? I hope I'm wrong, but I'm skeptical.

Michigan State apparently is horrible and lost to a MAC team, but you KNOW they are going to be up for ND in South Bend, especially coming off that awful loss. If we come out flat or don't take them seriously or just aren't up for the game for whatever reason (and we've seen this happen every single year of the Weis era), we'll lose that game.

I'm just ready for some results out of Charlie Weis. You're the head coach of Notre Dame. You make $4 million a year. You have a veteran team with returning starters everywhere and juniors and seniors all over the field. Yes, you're a good recruiter, but ND should always get good players no matter who the coach is. WIN A GAME!!

Charlie Weis is not the head coach at Missouri. He's not the head coach at Iowa. The goal isn't to win 8 games and play in the Alamo Bowl. He's the head coach at NOTRE DAME. The 2nd winningest program of all time. The goal is to win a championship or to be really close, especially when you have a team as loaded as he has right now with veterans everywhere. Losing 7 of your last 10 games against BCS conference schools (several of who were terrible) is not acceptable at ND.

Losses happen, but when are we going to win a game like this one?? Michigan may very well turn out to be a good team this year, but what does that say about Charlie Weis that a second year coach has rebuilt his program quicker than we have?? WEIS IS IN HIS FIFTH YEAR!! FIFTH!! And he's losing to Rich Rodriguez in RR's second year at Michigan with a roster that is still in completely turmoil and has no depth?? Are you kidding me?? Michigan has a SECOND YEAR HEAD COACH, and they are already beating us. Their learning curve has ramped up quickly, and they're probably only going to get better as they get more depth on defense and continue to get more familiar with their offensive scheme. Michigan has already gotten to our level in RR's second year, and they'll probably be passing us by in short order. That's really sad. Weis is in his fifth year, and we're still mediocre. Michigan is also mediocre, but they've gotten to mediocre from horrible and probably will be good to very good by next year.

And if this team goes on to rally from here and play great football the rest of the year, I will be as happy as anyone. I'm not advocating that we fire Charlie Weis at all. Maybe this team really is different, and last week was a speed bump on the way to a big year and a bowl win. For all we know, next Saturday will be the start of a 10 game winning streak. It's only week three with lots of football left to determine his fate.

Charlie has a chance to right the ship, but he has lost the benefit of the "In Charlie We Trust" deference. He has already coughed up a game that he should have won, and I think we need to be prepared for this happening again over the course of the season. Obviously I hope I'm wrong and that we end up at 10+ wins and don't have to worry about Weis' job security, but I don't want to be sitting at 7-5/8-4 at the end of the year and Swarbrick gets caught with his pants down because he doesn't have any plan on what to do about the head coach's future at Notre Dame. We have to be ready, and we should start thinking about the backup plan now. Swarbrick, that is your job. If this team lays down for Weis and collapses down the stretch again, you better be ready to do something about it. If you aren't, you're Kevin White with a law degree. Those are the stakes. There are lots of coaches who could come right in next year and win a BCS bowl game with this roster or maybe more. We need to be prepared to find that guy if it comes to that.

---I swear I will get to some positive thoughts at some point, but here's where I thought this game was lost.

Defense and special teams-- Just backbreaking efforts from our defense and special teams. Both units came up small on Saturday, but we've seen it too many times in recent years to really be surprised by it.

Special teams was a letdown. The punting game is not there, we missed a field goal, gave up a touchdown run, and the kickoffs don't get to the end zone. In college football, if you lose on special teams, you better win the other two phases. With our defense playing as poorly as it did, we needed to make up for it in special teams. We didn't.

Maust doesn't have a strong leg. That's pretty obvious at this point. The guy never rips off a monster punt, and he never gets it clean. We don't have anyone better on the roster?? Tausch will probably be fine this year, but that missed field was a huge momentum shift that got their crowd really fired up. And he doesn't kick it to the end zone. Michigan's kicker did it several times. Why can't we do it?? It cost us field position all game.

As for the defense, for all of the changes on this staff, how is this defense still not able to stop anyone when it counts?? We've brought in Tenuta, Corwin Brown, Randy Hart, recruits all over the place, big time secondary, and yet our defense got torched by a freshman QB and a paper thin roster that had very little major experience.

IT'S YEAR FIVE!!! How is our defense this mediocre?? STILL!! Great coaches bring a great defense by year five. Nick Saban had a great defense in year two. Pete Carroll...same. Urban Meyer...same. Our defense is pedestrian.

Our fans haven't seen a good defense in so long that we forgot what it means to have a good defense. Good defenses win games for you that maybe you shouldn't win. Good defenses overcome the bad breaks because they refuse to let the other team score. We wilt in EVERY GAME on defense. We lay down when it gets tough. We turn freshman qbs into household names.

Did our defensive line have even one sack?? I'll have to check on the replay. Our secondary and linebackers weren't all that much better. Tenuta did nothing to get to Forcier, and we also got gashed on the run in the 3rd quarter. All in all, we didn't get nearly enough stops, and we're nowhere near a championship level defense.

Charlie Weis is a very good offensive mind who loves to win pretty, but that doesn't win games. Defense wins you games. More importantly, defense wins you championships. I'd rather win games than play like a WAC team.

Look at USC. Yes, they run a pro style offense that can be very explosive, but they win games with their defense. PERIOD. Pete Carroll is a defensive coach who grew up at the knee of guys who won with defense. USC's defense controls games, gets their offense field position, and makes teams tentative. They might score 30 points in a lot of games, but the key wins for them are those 17-10 games that they pull out against teams like Cal and Oregon and Saturday against Ohio State. Go back and look at their scores through the years. Those are the games that we'd lose. We'd score 24+ points but give up 31 and lose.

Was the officiating horrible?? No doubt about it. But you gotta win the game!! I don't care how bad the refs were. It doesn't mean our defense had to completely lay down. It doesn't mean our special teams had to stink. The refs were bad and really hurt us, but sometimes you gotta overcome the refs. That's what great teams do. That's what USC does. That's what Alabama does. We gotta get to that point.

Adjustments at halftime --

The worst coaching error for me is that Weis got outadjusted at halftime. We had that game in the bag, and Weis let it slip out of our hands. Michigan was completely gassed and on the ropes, their fans were demoralized, and we did nothing at halftime to make sure that we put that game to bed.

From what I could tell at the game, Rich Rodriguez came out with several new wrinkles offensively and defensively to start the second half. They brought more blitzes early in the 3rd quarter to get to Clausen, stiffened up against the run, and they ganged up on the screen pass. It was just enough to throw us off for 2-3 possessions, but that was all they needed to get a big lead.

Offensively, they went to the ground game, and we weren't ready for it. Minor started gashing us with those off tackle runs. We eventually adjusted and regained our footing, but the damage had already been done. Suddenly, our 20-17 lead had turned into an 11 point deficit.

You can talk about playcalling and all the other stuff, but that lost us the game right there. It was practically a carbon copy of the North Carolina game. Butch Davis did the same thing. They made adjustments, got to Clausen, threw us off for about 3-4 possessions, and cranked up their running game. Suddenly a 17-7 lead turned into a loss. The same thing happened yesterday against Michigan. Weis getting outcoached by a better coach.

As a Bengals fan, I've seen this a thousand times with Marvin Lewis. Marvin isn't the worst coach in the world, but he routinely coughs up games in the second half by not making adjustments and losing games late with bad game management. Sound familiar?? Marvin goes into the locker room, tells the boys how great they're playing, and to keep it up in the second half. Meanwhile, John Harbaugh has made a couple adjustments to his defense, throws in a couple wrinkles offensively, and there's your ball game. A game that looked very winnable turns into a loss down the stretch.

The 3rd quarter is the most underrated quarter in football. Lots of games and lost there. We routinely lose the 3rd quarter, and we routinely fail to put teams away in the 3rd quarter.

Game management--

Probably the most controversial moment in the game was the decision by Weis to pass late in the game when we had the ball and the lead with only two minutes to go. The first play was a bomb to Tate, and the second was an out route to Shaq Evans (who was in for Floyd).

I think it's being overdone. ND fans are overfocusing on the end of the game (as usual). Weis felt like he had to get a first down, and he figured he would put it in Jimmy's hands to get it. I get that. Armando Allen was hurt. Gray had fumbled. He didn't trust anyone else at that point, so might as well throw to get the first down. I thought the bomb to Tate was dumb because it wouldn't have accomplished anything even if we had completed it, but it's one play out of an entire game. There were far worse things that happened in this game than that sequence. The other play to Evans was a perfectly fine play, but Evans just couldn't get to the spot in time. He's a freshman. It's a tough spot to jump in for Floyd right there. Floyd would have definitely made that catch, and we'd be celebrating right now.

Then again, this is who Charlie Weis is. He wanted to win it the "Charlie Weis Way" with a lot of gutsy play calling and razzle dazzle. Weis is like the guy in your fantasy draft who drafts all sleepers. It gets you a lot of oohs and aahs, but then you finish 9th in a 12 team league. That's Weis in a nutshell. The recruiting and the flashy offensive play is fun, but he loses games. That's what he does.

Ok, now for some things about the game that I thought went very well:

Armando Allen -- UNREAL. 21 carries for 139 yards. Averaged 6.6 yards a carry. Without a doubt the best game he has ever played and one of the most inspired performances out of an ND running back in a long time. I take back everything I have ever said about Armando Allen not being able to break tackles or explode past contact. This guy was a warrior. I didn't know he had it in him. He is a legitimate feature back all of the sudden. I found myself getting upset when he wasn't in the game.

That's the thing that's so frustrating about this game. We actually did a lot of things really well that have been weaknesses in the past. We averaged 5.1 yards on the ground. Our line played really well from what I could tell. We were opening up holes that weren't there the last couple years. It seems like Verducci is making a difference with this group.

It's stuff like that that gives me some hope about where this team could be headed. Armando Allen looks like a stud back now. I hope he keeps that up.

Michael Floyd -- Just a spectacular game from him. Every Michigan fan we sat near said he's one of the best receivers they've seen in college football. I agree. He's the best ND receiver I've ever personally watched. I don't see how he's not a first round pick whenever he decides to come out. He is going to put up some monster numbers this year.

Hard to complain about Golden Tate either even though he had a couple crucial drops. Golden Tate is a warrior. When Golden Tate gets the ball, he is almost impossible to tackle right away. I'll take him on my team any day of the week. He's a college receiver. You can't catch them all. 9 catches for 115 yards and 2 tds. Absurd numbers.

Jimmy Clausen -- 336 yards passing, 3 tds, and no INTs in a very hostile environment. 110,000 fans in the Big House, and he led us to big drive after big drive. How can anyone even think about complaining about that?? Jimmy Clausen is a great player. It's indisputable. There are very few QBs with his combination of arm strength and accuracy. He can fling the ball all over the field with no real problem.

He started out a little slow (probably just a little too pumped up), but he was spectacular for most of the game. With Jimmy Clausen running the show, we are a threat to score at any time. The Michigan fans in the stands were legitimately terrified of what he was doing out there.

Again, credit to Charlie Weis for recruiting these guys and building this type of offensive firepower. We have NFL talent all over the offense, and Weis is the guy who deserves that credit.

Kyle McCarthy -- Easily the MVP of the defense so far. KMac is a gamer.

Some other thoughts on guys/developments with this team:

Ethan Johnson-- Gotta get this guy out of the DT position. He's lost there. Ethan Johnson would be a dominant defensive end, but he's not a defensive tackle. I think it's time to just give one of the other DTs a shot and move Ethan Johnson back to end. That's the biggest change I'd like to see from a personnel standpoint. This defensive line needs to get much tougher if we're going to win 10 games this year.

Kerry Neal -- Can someone put an A.P.B on Kerry Neal?? Has he made a tackle yet?? Man, I thought he was going to be an absolute star when he first showed up at ND. He's done nothing for over a year.

Te'o-- Any reason why Te'o wasn't in there more?? I haven't watched the replay, but I didn't notice him out there. Te'o is a difference maker. I'd start him from here on out. I don't care if it's a running down or a passing down. He's one of our best athletes and needs to be on the field.

Brian Smith -- Man, I like this guy's spirit and all, but when is he ever going to step up in a big game and make some plays?? He's great against Navy and Nevada and teams like that, but I never hear his name in the big games. He's like the new Victor Abiamiri. Abiamiri would have like 5 sacks against Stanford, and then do nothing in the big games. Smith is starting to get like that a little bit. I'd like to see him have a great game against Michigan State next week.

Darius Fleming-- I thought he played great Saturday. I feel like I heard his name a lot out there. He looks like an athlete and someone who likes to get physical. I'm encouraged by what I've seen out of him so far.

Secondary -- Our secondary is getting a lot of heat, but part of it has been that the defensive line and linebackers aren't getting any pressure. We don't get any sacks. DBs can't cover guys forever.

Tenuta -- Not sure what to make of Tenuta so far as the ND defensive coordinator, but Saturday was not a good day for him. Where was the plan to rattle Forcier a little bit?? It's still way too easy to move the football on our defense.

Michigan -- Might as well get some thoughts in on Michigan's team while I'm here. First of all, I think Michigan is going to be great someday. They have a really bright future. But Michigan is not as good as they're now being talked about. Their defense is lousy. It's worse than our defense. The only good players on their entire defense are Donovan Warren and Brandon Graham. Everyone else looked mediocre at best to me. Our offensive line was much bigger than their d-line.

Plus, Michigan has no depth. Those things might change as they build up their roster, but Michigan is a thin team with a bad defense. They're going to wear down.

I will say that Tate Forcier impressed the heck out of me. I don't know what else you could say other than that. For a true freshman, he has an incredible feel for the game. He doesn't make mistakes, he finds little openings to give himself room to throw, he keeps his eyes up field, and he's accurate. He's just one of those guys who makes plays.

Once he puts some weight on his frame, he'll be even more dangerous, especially running the ball. He's not a runner per se, but he's kind of a sneaky runner. I'm trying to figure out who he reminds me of. Drew Brees?? Jeff Garcia??

I'm expecting Michigan's to be a force of nature as they get more and more familiar with how to run it. Once he gets all the pieces that he needs, they'll be adding more and more wrinkles to what they do now (which is already pretty dynamic).

For now, I still say they're a 7-8 win team. Our fans always have a tendency to overrate teams that we lose to. Remember the people thinking that Georgia Tech was a BCS team in 2007 and that Tashard Choice was a Heisman frontrunner?? How did that work out?? And same with UNC last year and Purdue in 2004 and MSU in 2005 among others. It happens every year. Beating ND is no longer a guarantee that you are an elite team. I think Michigan will have plenty of stumbles as the season goes along.

With that said, Rich Rodriguez has given that program an edge and a spark that they didn't used to have under Lloyd Carr. He REALLY impressed me on Saturday. The Forcier punt to our 2 yard line, the creative offensive plays, the halftime adjustments, the game management at the end. We had them outmanned, but they made the plays to win the game. I think Rich Rodriguez is a very very good head coach. I have always thought highly of him, but his strategic skills really impressed me on Saturday.

What Rich Rodriguez has done in two years to completely transform the Michigan program is remarkable. It's now his program. He is an aggressive coach who attacks and plays to win. It seems to rub off on his players. I think they will be formidable for years to come.

Michigan is suddenly the most interesting team in the Big Ten and may even be the torchbearer for the league going forward. Everyone else in the Big Ten is stuck in 1974. Meanwhile, there's Michigan playing aggressive, attacking football that resembles what you see with the more cutting edge programs. It's too early to say definitively that Michigan is back, but my guess is that's where they are headed.

The Big House -- Had to finish this post with some thoughts on the new look Michigan Stadium. If you've ever been there before in the past, you would be shocked at how much different it is with this new renovation project. The look is different, and the intimidation factor is completely different. Before, the noise at Michigan Stadium would just evaporate into the air. You'd look out among a mass of humanity with 100,000 people, but the stadium was never loud. I've been in 35,000 seat stadiums that were louder than Michigan Stadium before the renovation project.


Now?? The place is freakin loud. That was the loudest stadium I've ever been to. There were times when I couldn't even hear. Those luxury boxes bottle up all the noise inside the stadium now and give it more of a straight up and down feel than the giant bowl that it used to be. Not only are there more people than ever before (110,000 on Saturday), but it got really noisy.


The other thing that really cranks things up is the music they play over the loudspeaker. I don't know how long they've been doing that, but now they play Michigan-themed rock/rap songs over the loudspeaker at key moments in the game. Pretty much anyone with a Michigan theme to the song. Journey (born and raised in South Detroit), Eminem, and 1-2 others that I can't think of right now. When they started playing music, the fans really got energized.


When I first heard it, I was appalled. Michigan is playing rock music at the Big House?? What happened to the band?? I didn't drive all the way up to Ann Arbor to hear Eminem and Journey. I drove up to hear Dr. Kenneth Dye crank the hits for the ND band and battle it out with the Michigan band. A little Notre Dame Victory March versus Hail to the Victors. You could hardly hear the Michigan band. The ND band still comes loud and clear, but that's to be expected. The ND band is like the USC of bands. We always bring it in the big games. I don't think the ND band has ever been drowned out.


One thing that is funny is that Michigan does a lot of the same stuff that you see at ND Stadium with the constant athlete salutes and recognition of random teams from the 30s and 40s during timeouts. No one lives off their past like Michigan and ND. I kept waiting for them to introduce the Dining Hall staff.

Anyway, just thought that was interesting. I don't think I would ever want ND to pipe in jock jams, but I will acknowledge that it works. It gave Michigan's fans new life on multiple occasions. I would go so far as to say that it made a legitimate difference in the outcome of the game. If ND started playing Journey and other random songs that get people singing and dancing and fired up, it would make ND a louder and more intense stadium. I'm as much for tradition as anyone and don't want to water down the ND Stadium experience, but I also am in favor of anything that gives ND an edge. If we started doing it and ND fans went crazy and it gave the team a lift, I might come around on the idea.

Final thoughts here I promise. All is not lost. ND can recover from this. We are a better team this year. We did a lot of things really well against Michigan. It was devastating to lose that game, but I didn't come away from the game feeling like we are falling apart as a program. It may end up being a speed bump on the way to a very good year.

Time to gear up for Michigan State.