WEISND round table Week 11 Picks: Notre Dame-Pittsburgh, Cincinnati-West Virginia, Ohio State-Iowa, Florida-South Carolina, and USC-Stanford

One of the more tumultuous weeks in Notre Dame history, and now it's time for one of our bigger games of the year. A road game at night against a surging Pitt team looks like a tough task, but will the Irish respond and play up to their potential to get a big win for their embattled head coach??

Some thoughts from our round table on this week's games.

West Virginia +8.5 at Cincinnati (ESPN 7pm)

Jeremy: Cincinnati (-8.5)

In Brian Kelly I Trust.

UC 38 WVU 24

Dan: Cincinnati -8.5

8.5 points seems like a lot at first, but I love the home team on Thursday/Friday night. As long as the new QB controversy does not distract them, they should cruise to a relatively easy victory.

Cincinnati 35 West Virginia 24

Matt: West Virginia +8.5

Sorry, rough week at school, so abbreviated analysis this week. It’s a good thing I am doing better in school than I am with these picks this year. As for this game, I just have a feeling the ‘Neers keep it close. Is Zach Collaros really this good? We’ll find out.

WV 22 UC 28

Mike: Cincinnati (-8)

West Virginia has the ability to beat Cincinnati, but the Mountaineers are not playing at a peak level right now. To wit, last week in Morgantown, Bill Stewart’s squad barely beat an undermanned Louisville team that is playing out the string for a lame duck coach. Such a performance does not exactly inspire confidence that the ‘Eers will be able to hang with the high powered Bearcats on the road. With a short week of preparation, West Virginia will have no answers for the explosive Cincinnati offense.

Cincinnati 41 West Virginia 25

Doug: West Virginia +8.5

Well, this is it for UC. 3 more games for a shot at immortality. Can they keep it up?? Who knows. Every game is a HUGE game for UC, and now you have the Brian Kelly to ND rumors as a possible distraction. This game makes me nervous. It's just really really hard to go undefeated in college football, especially when you're not the most talented team in the world as it is. UC really has not had that clunker game yet, and it almost feels like they are due after that wild game against UConn last week.

Good decision by Brian Kelly to keep it going with Zach Collaros. I don't think he had a choice. Gotta stay with Collaros and keep it rolling. Tough spot for BK. I know Tony Pike is the senior and the captain and has NFL prospects to play for, but it's week 10 in a season where your team is 9-0. If you throw Tony Pike in there and he's not quite ready to go and it costs you a game, you'll never live it down. I think this is a good decision. Until Collaros struggles, keep him in there.

I personally think this offense is more potent with Zach Collaros even though Tony Pike is the more talented player. His ability to run gives them a dimension that they didn't have before. The trouble for UC offensively is that they don't have the type of personnel up front to be able to consistently run the ball, so they pretty much have to scrap and claw to get yards on the ground. With Collaros, he gives them a ground attack to go along with the passing game. They can rely on him for draws and zone reads and some QB scrambles to keep the chains moving. With Pike, almost all of their damage has to come through the air.

As for this game, I expect to see a close game. It's not like West Virginia is some chump team. In terms of personnel, WVU is probably more talented than UC from top to bottom on their roster. With Devine and Jarrett Brown and company, they'll score some points.

It would not shock me in the slightest if WVU wins this game, but I can't go against the Bearcats at this point. I think UC finds a way to win and moves one step closer to another Big East championship.

Cincinnati 27 WVU 21

Iowa +13 at Ohio State (ABC Sports 3:30pm)

Jeremy: OSU (-13) - LOCK OF THE WEEK

This line has moved quite a bit, especially after the announcement that
Stanzi was undergoing season-ending surgery. With Stanzi, OSU wins this
game. Without him, they roll. Guess we can shoot down all the
TP/Tressel chatter after the Vest wins another Big Ten title, right?

OSU 27 Iowa 3

Dan: Iowa +13

Glad to see Iowa was revealed as a fraud last week. However, I think the punters will be the most active players on the field on Saturday as Tressel ball continues and Iowa’s D-Line keeps Pryor in check. Ohio State controls the game, but the score stays close.

Ohio State 17 Iowa 10

Matt: Ohio State -13 LOCK OF THE WEEK

Thank you Northwestern, for exposing Iowa as the frauds that they were.

Ohio State 28 Iowa 6

Mike: Ohio State (-13)- LOCK OF THE WEEK:

Iowa’s loss to Northwestern obviously takes some of the luster off this game, but first place in the Big Ten and a trip to the Rose Bowl remains at stake. Unfortunately for Iowa, sophomore quarterback James Vandenburg, who struggled badly last week, will be under center in place of Ricky Stanzi. Without Stanzi, the Hawkeyes will not be able to muster any offense against a stout Ohio State defense.

Ohio State 30 Iowa 6

Doug: Iowa +13

Enormous win for the Buckeyes last week at Penn State. Just when you think they are losing their grip on the Big Ten, they put the clamp back down. I had a feeling that the Bucks were due for a big win, but didn't think it would come in dominant fashion.

Jim Tressel has gone through some rough patches, but his record speaks for itself. If they beat Iowa on Saturday, it will be their fifth straight year of being at least co-Big Ten champions. At this point, I don't know how you could ever not pick them to win the Big Ten as long as Jim Tressel is there.

I think Iowa is going to be ready to go though. This is the kind of game where Iowa has nothing to lose and can go in and let loose. It's not like they haven't won on the road before. They've already won at Penn State, at Wisconsin, and at Michigan State. Not a bad track record. Iowa has won with their defense, and the Buckeyes offense is still sporadic.

Read an interesting note in the Columbus Dispatch the other day. The state of Iowa is the smallest among all Big Ten states by a considerable margin. Only 3 million people in the state. The next closest is Minnesota, which has about 5 million people. Pretty amazing what Iowa does year in and year out in football in such a small state. Ferentz said there's usually only about 15 Division I caliber players in the state every year, and it's not like they get all of them. Some of the names of 2 and 3 star guys who ended up thriving at Iowa (Shonn Greene, Bob Sanders, etc) were shocking to me. Just goes to show that high school star ranking is not everything in college football.

I think this game will be closer than the 13 point spread, but the Buckeyes are not losing this game at home. Ohio State wins and clinches a spot in the Rose Bowl. Ohio State-Oregon would be a pretty intriguing game if you ask me.

Ohio State 24 Iowa 14

Florida -15 at South Carolina (CBS Sports 3:30pm)

Jeremy: South Carolina (+15)

Spurrier has burned me quite a few times this year, so I'm not at all
confident of this pick. But something is not right with the Florida
offense and I think this line is a bit too high.

Florida 28 South Carolina 17

Dan: South Carolina +15

The ole Spurrier bowl. This line is tough, because I feel that two touchdowns is about right. I think South Carolina will do just enough to keep Florida within sight, but never really be close to being in the game.

Florida 28 South Carolina 14

Matt: South Carolina +15

This is a lot of points to be giving for an SEC road game. USC is in their typical second half swoon, but I sense some magic coming out of Williams Brice Stadium this Saturday.

Florida 17 USC 14

Mike: South Carolina (+15):

Florida seems to be rounding into peak form while South Carolina has struggled badly in recent weeks, so these two teams appear to be heading in different directions. South Carolina, however, will be pumped for the opportunity to knock off the Gators and Steve Spurrier has given his alma mater fits in the past (last year notwithstanding). Maybe it’s the wine talking, but I will call for an outright upset by the Gamecocks.

South Carolina 26 Florida 24

Doug: Florida -15

I’ll go with the Gators here. Why not?? South Carolina is reeling lately.

At some point, I feel like Florida is going to go on the road and thrash somebody. Look at what they did down the stretch in November last year:

Georgia 49-10
Vanderbilt 42-14
South Carolina 56-6
Citadel 70-19
Florida State 45-15

This team has had some transition offensively, but now they are hitting their stretch run. If they want to be peaking against Bama, it’s probably time to blow out a team like South Carolina.

Florida 31 South Carolina 14

Stanford +10 at USC (Fox Sports Network 3:30pm)

Jeremy: Stanford (+10)

I expected Oregon to have a bit of a letdown last week, but that was
quite a shock. I know Gearhart and Luck provide the Cardinal with some
nice punch on offense, but putting up 50+ on the Ducks?!? Impressive.
Guess I'm legitimately terrified of Stanford again. SC wins this game,
but much closer than they'd prefer.

USC 23 Stanford 17

Dan: USC -10

They have to bounce back and blow someone out again eventually, right? Well, maybe not a blow-out, but a dominating performance. Stanford may have confidence after their win against Oregon, but I also feel a little bit of a let down coming. Look for Everson Griffen to put a hurt on Andrew Luck and force the youngin’ into a couple mistakes.

USC 31 Stanford 17

Matt: Stanford +10

Newsflash: USC is not that good this year. That doesn’t mean that Pete Carroll has lost it or anything, but they just don’t have it in ‘09. But I’m sure the powers that be at ND will point to the ND-USC game t when they announce Charlie will be back. “Progress! We took USC to the wire at home! We didn’t lose by 35.”

If I had any guts I would take Stanford to straight up win this game.

Stanford 20 USC 24

Mike: Stanford (+10):

The Trojans are banged up and struggling right now, while Stanford should be flying high after its victory over Oregon. As surprising as it seems, the key to this game may be whether USC will be able to match Stanford’s level of toughness. Behind a bounce back performance for Matt Barkley, USC will escape, but fail to cover, for the second straight week.

USC 24 Stanford 20

Doug: USC -10 -- LOCK OF THE WEEK

I’m a believer in Stanford. I flipped over and watched bits and pieces of their game against Oregon. Very impressive. Stanford plays a lot like Alabama if Alabama had less talent and more white guys. They grind you and grind you and then hit play action passes. Gerhart is really a great player. Just one of those Mike Alstott types who pounds you between the tackles and loves carrying it 30+ times a game. I enjoy watching him play.

The question is whether that formula is going to work against USC. USC is a tough team to run the ball on at home. If Stanford can’t get Gerhart going, it could be a long day for them.

How much more pounding can Gerhart take?? He leads the nation in carries right now by a wide margin. Is he going to have anything left at the end of the year??

Stanford is good, but it’s not like they’re undefeated. They’re 6-3 and 1-3 on the road. Plus, their defense stinks. They play with effort, but Stanford has to make up a significant talent differential to beat the Trojans on the road in November.

Jim Harbaugh is doing exactly what I expected him to do at Stanford. I’m a huge believer in him as a head coach. He’s built them slowly with good line play and a tough running game, and now it’s finally paying off. If he actually stays at Stanford (which I don’t expect to happen more than another year or two), I think their trajectory is really headed upward.

If Michigan was smart, they’d cut the cord with Rodriguez after this year and make amends with Jim Harbaugh. Is there really a point in giving him another year or would it be better to just cut the cord now and move on like Kentucky did with Billy Gillespie?? Harbaugh would get Michigan back to playing Michigan football: hard nosed running game, big armed pro quarterbacks, good line play. He’d be the perfect fit, and he has the energy and NFL brand name to be a national recruiter like Michigan needs. His worst case scenario at Michigan would be Lloyd Carr, but I think his ceiling would be really high at Michigan.

Les Miles would be adequate, but is there really that much of a difference between Les Miles and Lloyd Carr?? Les would get them back to more of a Michigan identity, but is he the kind of guy who’s going to build them from the ashes back into a top 5 program?? Debateable. My guess would be no.

Amazing how big of a disaster ND and Michigan have become. Two schools with no plan and no identity.

USC 31 Stanford 17

Notre Dame at Pittsburgh (ABC Sports 8pm)

Jeremy: Notre Dame

Simply because Jimmy Clausen, Golden Tate and a healthy Armando Allen will not allow the Irish to lose 2 games in a row. Add in a (hopefully) better-conditioned Michael Floyd and Pitt is going to have their hands full with the Irish attack. I'm not confident that ND will be able to
shut down the burgeoning Pitt offense, but I do think they can slow either the ground or the aerial attack. Dion Lewis has a surprisingly quiet day, but the Irish can't stop the Stull-Baldwin connection. Fortunately, Clausen's got some more magic in him and another 4th quarter comeback cements Jimmy's legacy as one of the best to ever take snaps under the Dome.

ND 38 Pitt 35

Dan: Pitt (to win outright)

No comment. It hurts too much still.

Matt: Pitt

Earlier this week, Doug summed up my feelings towards the ND program this year. I know about a month ago I said it would be foolish to fire Weis, but that was before he went out and established a home losing streak to Navy and then threw Ian Williams under the bus. At this point, things can’t get any worse. If he hasn’t proven to be a winner by now, it’s not going to happen. I have no confidence that the administration will handle the coaching search well, but I’ll settle for anyone else at this point.

Pitt 38 ND 28

Mike: Pittsburgh (outright):

Despite last week’s debacle, I have decided to stick with my plan to attend the game, although more as a social event than for the game itself. Of course, it certainly will not surprise me if we win this game. With Tate and Floyd in the fold and Clausen at QB, we should be able to move the ball effectively against the Pittsburgh defense and I expect a better honest effort from the defense. Ultimately, the Panthers will prevail by making fewer mistakes and playing more physical than the finesse Irish, thus causing Charlie Weis’s coaching career, for all intents and purposes, to end on the same field where it began. But, hey, no worries: Notre Dame football is in the hands of very competent professionals who can be trusted to conduct an effective coaching sea…sorry, I just can’t finish this sentence, even in jest.

Pittsburgh 30 Notre Dame 27

Doug: Pitt

Even though ND is reeling, I'm not sure what to make of this game. Part of me thinks that this game will resemble the 2008 BC game where we never show up to play and never really threaten, but part of me feels like we're in for some of dead cat bounce, ala ND winning on the road at Tennessee three games before Ty was fired in 2004. We've seen those kinds of rallying efforts before out of teams fighting for their embattled coach. I feel like Ron Zook pulled a few of those wins off in his Florida days over Georgia, and Al Groh seems to do it every year. The players circle the wagons and come out for one week like gangbusters against a team that might be overlooking them or overconfident or any other "over" adjective that describes a team that isn't ready to play.

Of course, we haven't really seen that type of rally out of a Weis team yet even though he's been under fire for three years. Once a Weis team goes into the tank, we go into that tank, baby!! The motto of Charlie Weis teams in November should be something along the lines of "If you're looking for the towels, we've already thrown them in." A home loss to Navy?? Ha, we can top that by getting blown out by Air Force the next week. Back to back demoralizing losses to Pitt and then BC?? Ehh, wait till you watch us lose at home to Syracuse and not get a first down against USC for three quarters. Maybe this team is going to really circle the wagons, but Weis' track record speaks for itself.

With that said, aren't guys like Jimmy Clausen and Golden Tate and Michael Floyd getting sick of losing?? Do they really want to finish their college careers on a four game losing streak?? They came to ND to win a championship, and this game against Pitt might be their last chance to get a meaningful win in their college careers. Is Pitt a signature win?? Nah. They're a top 30 type program having a nice season, but we're talking about Pitt here. There's nothing particularly intimidating about going to Pitt. The crowd will probably be 40% ND fans, and that minority will probably sound like the majority. Pitt is every bit as beatable as Michigan State and Boston College.

ND is more than capable of winning this game, but it will depend on whether we're willing to go out and execute for 60 minutes. Corwin Brown and company lashed out at the media and tried to circle the wagons, but I'm past the point of buying into media statements. I've never seen a program throw out more nonsense through the media than this ND program under Charlie Weis. Our coaches talk like Vince Lombardi in the press conferences, but we haven't seen that reflect on the field at all.

Plus, why are we whining in the press about Navy?? This is what we've come to?? Complaining about how mean Navy is?? Does Navy complain in the media about the fact that our linemen weigh 70 pounds more than their linemen and how unfair that is?? Here's a novel concept. How about running it down their throats for 60 minutes and beating them 41-10?? Let's do that instead of complaining after the game about how Navy plays dirty. I know, crazy idea there.

Here's another idea. Instead of whining at the press conference four days later, why not respond right there on the field by beating them into the ground from that point on?? ND has a LOSER'S MENTALITY. I mentioned this earlier in the week, but this is what ND football has come to. Blaming the refs, whining about cheap shots, whining about other teams cheating, pointing to graduation rates, etc. We are always looking for something to blame instead of going out and winning ballgames. Boo hoo, these other teams aren't playing fair. Give me a break. WIN GAMES.

I think ND can win this game, but I'm not expecting it. I think we'll come out with a chip on our shoulder, but the question is whether we can sustain it. If things start going wrong, will we wilt like we have all year?? If Pitt makes adjustments, will we counter?? Being mentally tough is not just about getting pumped up. It's about staying focused and playing determined for 60 minutes.
I expect a close game, but I can't help but feel like this Irish team is falling apart to some degree.
Pitt 27 ND 21

Bonus Picks:

Matt:

Wake Forest -4.5

Tears will be flowing at BB&T Field as Riley Skinner wraps up his seemingly endless home career and I wrap up my two year Wake Forest football experience. The once mighty ‘Noles come into town, and I really don’t see them beating the Deacs on Senior Day. Look for Skinner to have a near career day against the punchless Seminoles D that appears to have put a 42 cent stamp on the rest of this season. I might sneak in a “Bobby Don’t Go” sign into the student section. One interesting fact from this game – Wake can become only the 3rd team ever and first ACC team to beat Bobby Bowden four straight years. If that doesn’t tell you how terrible of a job Bowden is doing, I don’t know what does. Wake probably has the worst talent in the ACC and they are going to beat FSU 4 years in a row.

Wake Forest 40 FSU 24

Tennessee +4.5

In Lane Kiffin I Trust

Tennessee 19 Ole Miss 16

Utah +19.5

Can’t believe we’re not picking the game of the week! Doesn’t this line seem REALLY high? I mean, I know TCU is good and all, but 20 points to a solid Utah team? Give me the Utes in a cover and there will be some anxious moments in Fort Worth. In fact, I’ll go out on a limb and say Kyle Whittingham and the road Utes pull off the shocker and upset the Frogs.

Utah 17 TCU 14

Mike:

Wisconsin (-8.5) over Michigan: Losing to Michigan is a stronger basis to fire Weis than losing to Navy. The Wolverines are terrible.

Indiana (+26.5) over Penn State: Indiana has been a reliable underdog play all year and I don’t expect anything different against the Nittany Lions, who have been exposed as a total fraud.

NC State (+8) over Clemson: I actually like the money line here. With a home date against Virginia on the horizon, this is Clemson’s last real hurdle on the way to an ACC Championship birth. Given Clemson’s history, it’s rather safe to assume that they’ll screw it up.

Kansas State (Pick) over Missouri: I thought that Bill Snyder was a bad (re)hire for KSU, but he has done a remarkable job in Manhattan this year. Missouri, meanwhile, lost to Baylor last week. At home.

Arizona State (+17) over Oregon: ASU should be able to hang close to Oregon, which may be suffering from a hangover, on the strength of its aggressive defense.

Doug:

Bengals +7.5 at the Steelers -- Not sure if people realize just how well the Bengals are positioned in the AFC North race right now. 4-0 in the division with a home game against the Browns still coming, 6-2 overall, and four games against absolute dregs still left on the schedule (KC, Detroit, Cleveland, at Oakland). It's weird to say this after only 8 games, but the Bengals are in firm control of their destiny in the AFC North right now. Barring some sort of major collapse, they are a borderline lock for 10 wins and likely to get to 11 if they can win one more. An 11-5 Bengal team with a 5-1 record in the division is going to be like the golfer at the US Open who goes to the clubhouse at +1 after 72 holes on a brutal day where the other golfers ahead of him are going to need to play exceptional golf to beat him.

That's where I'd put the Steelers right now. The Steelers are still the Steelers, and I think you could make a strong argument that they are still the best team in the NFL this year, especially now that Troy Polamalu is back (more on that later). But they sort of need to make a monster run from here on out to blow past the Bengals. The Steelers still have to play two big rivalry games with the Ravens. If they lose one of those and end up 11-5 with a 4-2 division record, the Bengals could be your division champs. Could the Steelers run off 7 wins in their next 8 games and finish 13-3 or 12-4?? Of course!! They're the Steelers. But 1-2 slip-ups along the way, and the Bengals actually have some serious tiebreaker mojo working for them right now. With a sweep of the Ravens and that win over the Steelers already in their pocket, the Bengals have done a lot of heavy lifting already.

Who's the better team here?? Cmon, let's not kid ourselves. Pittsburgh. The Bengals were very fortunate (ok, lucky) to beat the Steelers at home in week 3, but Pittsburgh was in control of that game for 3 quarters. It's an entirely different battle going to Heinz Field. For my money, Heinz Field is the best home field advantage in the league. That place is a house of horrors for visiting teams. Count on a 95 yard interception return for a touchdown, a special teams touchdown for Pittsburgh, or some other wacky game-changing play that just always seems to happen there. The Steelers always seem to reach down and find some magic when they need it in that stadium. Extremely tough place to win.

The other thing is that Troy Polamalu is now back. Troy was out for the game in week 3, and it made a huge difference in the Bengals' passing game. Without him in there, Chad and friends can run wild over the middle. With Troy back, he snuffs all that out. He's the best defensive player in the league and one of the 5 or so best defensive players in the modern era of football if you ask me. When he retires, he'll go down as the greatest safety of all time without question.

Here's my list of the 6 best defensive players I've ever watched:

1) Lawrence Taylor
2) Troy Polamalu
3) Ray Lewis
4) Reggie White
5) Deion Sanders
6) Bruce Smith

He's the most difficult guy to game plan around since LT in my opinion. There's just nothing you can do to keep him in check. At any point, he can take over the game.

Carson Palmer and the boys are going to have their work cut out for them. This game comes down to turnovers and winning the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. If the Bengals can run the ball and let Carson make plays and get pressure on Roethlisberger, I think they have a shot. I don't expect to win this game, but I think they can cover the 7.5 points.

New England +2.5 over the Indianapolois Colts --

Man, does it get any bigger in the NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE than week 9 of the regular season?? We got Bengals-Steelers, Pats-Colts, Packers-'Boys. HEAVYWEIGHTS!! This is the first time in years where I am genuinely more excited about the NFL games on Sunday than the college games on Saturday. I'm going to be hightailing it back to Columbus on Sunday morning from Pittsburgh to make it in time for the 1pm Steelers-Bengals kickoff.

Is it required by law that the Colts and Pats meet every year right around week 9?? It's almost as if they promised to each other last year that they'd both finish second in their divisions to ensure another matchup this year.

NBC is going to get a huge rating for this one. They might make more money off this game than they did off the entire Notre Dame football season. Maybe I'm just bitter, but the 2009 college football season has been a disappointment. Too many mediocre programs in the top 10, not a lot of compelling games, and the power teams really haven't had too many big time games. The middle of the SEC and Big 12 has come up small in providing good tests for Florida, Bama, and Texas. The ACC is a disaster, the Big Ten has a credibility problem, no one takes the Big East teams seriously, and USC is out of it. I'm bored with what we have left on the schedule the next few weeks. I love football, but my ability/desire to watch football is not open-ended. Every week, I feel myself paying more and more attention to the NFL slate, and this is the first week where I really feel like my renewed interest in the NFL is coming at the expense of college football.

I don't know what to make of this game. It seems like Belichick likes to hide things in his regular season matchups with the Colts in case they meet in the playoffs again, but we haven't really seen Jim Caldwell in a big game yet. Plus, the Colts have been sort of skating by with some close wins over Houston and the Niners and have had all sorts of injury issues (Sanders, Gonzo, etc). The Colts are good, but make a run at 16-0 good?? Not sure.

Just feels like the Pats are going to put on one of those "you didn't think we were going away, did you?" performances with Brady and Belichick doing what they do best. New England has been a surprisingly quiet story this year with all the focus on the Saints and Favre, but they know that a big win in Indy vaults them back to the top of the picture in the AFC. Plus, this is a key game in terms of home field advantage and all that. You know the Pats want those January playoff games in Foxboro, and they'd be all but out of that race if they lose to Indy (especially with a road game at New Orleans in a few weeks).

I've enjoyed the last 14 months or so of the Pats being off the radar, but I have a feeling everyone is going to be sniffing their jocks on Monday morning.

Wisconsin -8.5 over Michigan - And we think ND football is in rough shape?? Michigan is driving 100 mph over a cliff right now. The longer they stay with Rich Rodriguez, the more difficult it will be for them to dig themselves out of the hole. Then again, maybe Rich Rodriguez explodes in year three. I'm not sure I see it. I see a Billy Gillespie situation here. If your program is really heading somewhere, you don't lose a home game to Purdue in week 10.

Michigan State -2.5 at Purdue -- Interesting game here. Sparty has to be one of the best 5-5 teams in the nation, if not the best. They've been pretty resilient, and I could see them winning their last two games over Purdue and Penn State to get to 7-5. Dantonio is

Utah +19.5 vs. TCU -- Can't believe we forgot to preview this game. Utah is a 19.5 dog?? Wow, I gotta take those points.

Last Week:

Jeremy: 1-3-1
Dan: 2-2-1
Matt: 1-3-1
Mike: 0-4-1
Doug: 1-3-1

Season:

Jeremy: 35-25-2
Dan: 31-29-2
Matt: 26-34-2
Mike: 25-35-2
Doug: 28-33-2

Locks of the Week:

Jeremy: 6-3
Dan: 4-5-1
Matt: 3-6
Mike: 3-6
Doug: 4-6

Crisis at Notre Dame: Home loss to Navy, Weis defiant, anger management classes, Brian Kelly myths that need debunking, and thoughts on Jon Gruden

A summary of what we saw this weekend:

4) Losing to Navy at home -- Think about what we witnessed on Saturday. Second consecutive loss at home to Navy (haven't beaten them at home since 2005!), third loss to a service academy in the last three years (people gloss over that blowout loss to Air Force like it never happened), and our fourth loss to a wildly inferior team in the month of November when good teams are supposed to be peaking. Our record in November since 2007 is 3-7. 3-7!! That's incredible to me. And it might get worse. The futility of Notre Dame football right now is unparalled in school history. Even worse than Willingham. We are losing games that were once unfathomable for ND football.

Saturday was basically a microcosm of everything that we have seen throughout the Weis tenure.

1) Not ready to play -- It's gotten to the point where you can tell how the ND game is going to go just by watching how we run out of the tunnel before the game. We "ran" out of the tunnel on Saturday like we were getting ready for some run-of-the-mill Tuesday afternoon practice. Meanwhile, Navy ran out of there like they were getting ready to run off the boats onto Iwo Jima.

We can talk about bad luck and unfortunate turnovers and all that, but the biggest issue from Saturday is that Weis didn't have us ready to play. You could see it from the very beginning. We were lethargic and lazy, and Navy was fired up. They jumped on us early, and we didn't wake up until it was too late. If you're forced to go into desperation mode every single week, eventually you are going to get burned.

There's no excuses with this game. It would be one thing if this loss was some sort of wild aberration that came out of nowhere. If we were 7-1 with a win over USC and were playing dominant football all year and somehow just showed up flat and lost a fluke game to Navy, I would not be all that bent out of shape about it. Upsets happen from time to time. But this game is part of a pattern. We've been running this high wire act all year, and it was only a matter of time before we came out on the wrong side of it. This team is 6-3, but it feels like we're a lot worse than that and could easily be 3-6.

The other thing is that it’s a November game. Charlie Weis has never had this team peaking in November in any of his years here. If anything, we regress as the season goes along. Great coaches peak in November. Pete Carroll, Urban Meyer, Stoops (historically), Saban, Tressel, etc. They seem to always be playing their best football of the season in November. Why don't we do that with Charlie Weis??

I think one of Weis' biggest problems has always been that he lets his team get too satisfied with what they've done. You can see it in his press conferences and his sideline interviews. Weis has Marvin Lewis disease (although Marvin is like a new man this year). He starts telling the guys how great they are, and they lose focus. You could sense that Weis was getting ahead of himself this week and thinking BCS and thinking about our ranking and whether we fit in the top 14 and all that. He was talking about how big a day Manti Te'o was going to have like the game was a foregone conclusion.

He’s the HEAD COACH. He’s supposed to be the taskmaster. The guy who keeps this team's head on straight and focuses on making us better every week. Getting yourself involved in BCS talk and where we should be ranked is not your job. Leave that stuff to the fans.

That's where Weis has just never gotten it. He's just not capable of reining himself in and never has been. His personality seeps into the team's psyche, and that's why I think we lack focus. Weis thought this game was a gimme, and I bet that reflected on how we practiced all week.

2) Bad defensive game plan - The Navy coach even called us out on it. We had a lazy defensive game plan. The coaches probably figured that we did enough to win last year with that game plan, so they trotted it out again. I don't know if it's arrogance or laziness or what, but our coaches seemed to think that Navy would just fall in line with what they did last year and make no adjustments. To me, that's just incredibly sloppy.

For all the talk about how hard Weis works, we have lazy game plans quite frequently. As the year goes along, teams recognize that we do the same stuff week in and week out and plan for it. And we don't seem to adjust.

3) No running game -- Let me get this straight, we have a 50-60 pound advantage up and down our lines, we have a bulldozer running back in Robert Hughes and another slasher in Theo Riddick and we run for 60 yards the entire game?? Why weren't we ramming it down their throat all game and wearing them down?? Last year, we pounded it on them and turned their defense into butter by the end of the 3rd quarter.

The aerial attack moved the ball all over the field, but it doesn't demoralize a defense. They always had the energy to put up a front in the red zone to bottle up our receivers with tight coverage. Teams are daring us to run, and we're not doing it. Instead, we're throwing fades into coverage. I know Tate and Floyd are GREAT, but everyone knows it is coming. When Floyd only has 10 yards to work with, it's easier to stay with him and make a play on the ball.

I'm not some "run it 50 times" zealot, but our problems in the red zone directly stem from our lack of commitment to the running game. If we had spent the entire first half pounding the ball over and over and over, those 4-5 yard gains would have turned into 15 yard gains in the second half. And when we got into the red zone, we could pound it in there.

Is Weis a creative offensive coach?? Sure, but we do our best work offensively when we go into desperation, "sandlot" mode. When we have no other choice but to just hurl it down the field to Tate and Floyd, that's our best chance to score. We'll play half-baked football for 25 minutes in the half and then make a furious effort to score in the last 2 minutes. If that's the case, what are we doing wrong the other 25 minutes?? Why don't we play with that sense of urgency the entire game??

4) Too much panicking -- Maybe the most frustrating tendency out of Weis is that there really never seems to be a commitment to an identify or an overall plan. We'll go to the Wildcat for a couple plays and then completely abandon it in the second half. We'll commit to the running game for a bit and then not run once in the second half. It's as if Weis has these grand plans and then scraps everything at the first sign of trouble. Even though the running game was working well against Navy, we quit on it. It's as if Weis doesn't trust a running game to win you a football game and feels that he has to put the ball in the hands of Jimmy Clausen to get him a win. Compare that to a team like Alabama. Bama has a plan in every game to run the football until you wilt in the fourth quarter. They stick to that plan game in and game out, and practice that throughout the year. That's their identity.

There's just a constant air of desperation around our teams under Weis. Going for it in the first half at the 2 yard line like we were already in make or break mode. Why not kick the field goal and just get the points and stop the bleeding a little bit?? Why are we already panicking in the first half??

Saturday just summed up what we probably all should have acknowledged long ago. He's just not a good football coach. I'll admit to being a Weis apologist to some degree, but Saturday just feels like a tipping point. Maybe he wins out and restores some hope, but there's nothing in his history that would suggest that is what we are about to do. It's more likely that this team is about to go into the tank and lose a couple more games (if not all three).

At this point, I don't see what the point is of keeping Weis around. What would we miss if he was gone?? More losses to service academies?? More listless play?? Weis has been here five years, and has nothing to show for it. NOTHING. Sure he can recruit, but people act like recruiting to Notre Dame is some sort of "man to the moon" mission. Do people really think ND has nothing to offer unless Charlie is spinning things in our favor?? Give me a break. Find a guy who is passionate about the school and our tradition and fanbase and academics and all the other things that we have to offer, and the recruits will come. People act like ND didn't get a good player until Charlie Weis came here. BOLOGNA!! Did I miss the memo that Brady Quinn wasn't recruited here before Charlie?? Was I hallucinating when I saw Julius Jones run out of the tunnel at ND before Weis got here?? Or Anthony Weaver? Or Victor Abiamiri? Trevor Laws?? Carlyle Holliday?? Glenn Earl?? ND has been getting great players long before Charlie got here, and they will continue to get great players long after he is gone. Weis is a good recruiter, but he is talked about like some sort of savior. He's not. ND is a great program that can sell itself. Now we just need a coach who knows how to lead them.

There are many, many problems that go much higher than Charlie Weis in this program, but we haven't helped things by hiring a bunch of bad football coaches. Davie, Willingham, Weis. Three guys who had no history of success prior to getting to ND, and three guys who have/will have no success as head coaches in their years following ND.

Put it this way. If Weis is a good coach, then wouldn't he be a hot commodity in the offseason at some other school?? Wouldn't someone like Virginia be interested in him if he got fired at ND?? The reality is that no one is interested in him as a college head coach. Maybe as an NFL offensive coordinator, but not as a head coach. That should tell you all you need to know about Weis' value as a head coach.

3) With all that said, I wasn't really in the mood to get out the pitchfork on Saturday and run Weis out of town. With Jenkins and company running the show, I was just sort of resigned to leaving Weis in lame duck status for the time being.

But then I read the transcript of Weis' press conference on Sunday, and I found it to be revolting. The guy goes out of his way to say he doesn't throw players under the bus, and then does it anyway, including a direct shot across the bow of Ian Williams. You stay classy, Charlie. No, can't be your fault that you lost to freaking Navy. Very mature to take a shot at a college kid who plays his butt off every week while you steal $4 million a year from the university. I'd rather go to war with Ian Williams any day of the week than that fat tub of goo.

Put yourself in Ian Williams' shoes for a minute. You work your butt off all offseason in the weight room and the film room, you practice all year for those 12 football games, and then your coach doesn't have the team prepared to win. Perhaps he flew off the handle, but he's a kid. Charlie Weis is a 53 year old coach who is making $4 million a year. Who should be the more mature person there??

That whole sequence said one thing and one thing only to me. This team is in the process of imploding, if it hasn't already. The players don't believe in Weis, and I fully expect to see this team go into the tank.

Even funnier is when Weis says "I always start with me" when evaluating why the team lost, and then proceeds to give himself a pat on the back for the game plan!! Unreal.

The game plan?? Is that what you think coaching is all about?? "Well, I drew up this great game plan. My work is done." You've got to be kidding me?? How about getting your players to play with intensity?? How about teaching fundamentals like tackling?? How about building a physical football team that shoves the ball down Navy's throat and wears them down?

Look at Jim Harbaugh. This guy is working with a bunch of scrubs at Stanford, and he's got them playing tough, physical football. He has built a foundation for them to rely on. Same with Wannstedt. Those guys are building something sustainable with their programs.

Meanwhile, we're trying to outscheme Navy with our amazing game plans. Awesome. Charlie Weis just doesn't get it. I think he deluded himself into thinking that these fourth quarter comebacks were something we could build our identity around. It's one thing for a fan to think that, but the head coach?? The high wire act is not sustainable. Weis should have been working to fix that so that the close wins turned into dominant wins as the team got further along in the season. Instead, this team has regressed, and Weis didn't see it coming. Instead, he seemed to think that playing listless football for 3 quarters and then winning it in the fourth was our "new system."

This press conference was the tipping point for me. That was a "don't blame me" C.Y.A. move and completely immature. You're making $4 million a year and just lost to Navy. Own the loss yourself.

In his press conference, Weis should have said the following:

"This falls on me. I didn't have us ready to play. We were lethargic all week in practice, and it's my fault. It will never happen again as long as I am the head coach of this team."

Reading the transcript was the first moment where my "stay/go" meter strongly tipped in favor of moving on, even though I know we'll probably botch the hire. I'm ready for something different.

If Weis does come back, I'm not going to jump up and down and participate in boycotts and protests and all that. I've been a Bengals and Reds fan for 20 years. Battered fan syndrome is the norm for me. My entire sports fan life has been a series of bad coaches, incompetent management, owners who lie to fans and sell us on phony rebuilding plans ("This is the year!! I swear!!"), and players who quit on their coaches. Infighting and turmoil are all I know. If the Bengals can keep guys like Bruce Coslet and David Shula around 2-3 years too long, I can certainly live with another year or two of Charlie Weis.

2) So in a perfect world, ND dumps Weis, gets it together, and goes out and throws a pile of money at a great coach, and starts winning big again. Just like Alabama did with Saban. Just like Kentucky did with Calipari. Go get a heavy hitter, and your "dying" program will suddenly look like world beaters again. So simple. Right??

Unfortunately, we already know that's not the case at Notre Dame. The priests and admins running ND are completely tone deaf when it comes to understanding big time college football. How about these rumors (if true) that Jack Swarbrick actually ordered Charlie Weis to enroll in an angry management program after last season?? ARE YOU KIDDING ME??! This actually happened?? Does any story sum up everything that is wrong with Notre Dame as a football program (or as a school for that matter) better than this?? The nanny state, Res Life, limp-wristed mentality of the entire school is on full display right there. This was the solution to last year's horrible season?? That Weis needed anger management classes?? I'm speechless. I'm not sure anything will ever top that. And yet I can completely see it from what I remember about how Notre Dame operates. Their default position on everything is to be overbearing.

Could you imagine how humiliating that must have been for Weis? He's got a bunch of priests who are uncomfortable with him swearing too much or whatever. Give me a freaking break!! He's a football coach!! Could you imagine the look on Nick Saban or Urban Meyer or Brian Kelly's face when they hear the news that Jack Swarbrick actually ordered Charlie Weis to take anger management classes?? HILARIOUS!! They will probably turn ghost white and change their phone number so that no one from ND ever calls them about the head coaching job again.

You know who takes anger management classes??! Wife beaters!! Drunks! Felons!! I represent a lot of these jokers every day and see the types of people who get ordered to take anger management classes. And this was Swarbrick/Jenkins solution?? To put Weis in anger management??

And you want to be my Latex salesmen?? That's the first thing that came to mind when I heard this story. These are the guys that are going to be making a potentially huge coaching hire this offseason?? A couple of goobers who think that the football coach swears too much??

Until I see it with my own eyes, I'm fully prepared for an absolute disaster of a coaching search if we go that route in the offseason. I'm expecting a three ring circus. Swarbrick flying around the country getting rejected left and right, big name coaches turning us down publicly and signing big extensions with their current employers, rumors everywhere, no plan, chaos, and finally some half-baked third rate hire that leaves everyone hoping for the best but fearing more of the same. We've seen this three times before. The O'Leary hire, the Willingham hire, and the Weis hire. We had opportunities to hit a home run all three times and completely whiffed.

The amazing one is the 2001 hire. We had ALL SEASON (since it was obvious Davie was done by week 3) and had absolutely zero plan once it came time to conduct a search. How is that even possible?? The Kevin White era!! What was he even doing all season?? Shouldn't he have focused on one thing and one thing only that entire season?? Finding a big time coach?? Truly remarkable how incompetent that search was. And then O'Leary's resume doesn't even check out. And then we hire freaking Tyrone Willingham even though Stanford people were practically begging him to leave. There may never be anyone like Kevin White again. He was truly one of a kind.

Anyway, I digress. I probably should start by pointing out the obvious. I’m not even remotely convinced that Weis is getting fired after the season. Think about what Jenkins and Swarbrick must be feeling today. Those two are probably hiding under their desks in the fetal position and avoiding all telephone calls. If this Navy loss blindsided the fans, think about what it must have done to those two. They probably know there is no chance they are landing a great head coach. Why?? Because they know deep down that the program has so many self-imposed hurdles that no big time coach is really going to take that job. A guy like Urban Meyer isn't taking the ND job. He knows that job is a train wreck, and that he'd be dealing with a bunch of nonsense from the priests that he never would have to deal with at a place like Florida. Same with Nick Saban. Could you imagine Swarbrick coming into Saban's office and asking him to take an anger management course?? Saban would put him in a headlock and take a dump on his face right there in the office.

At a school like Alabama, Nick Saban hires and fires whoever he wants and answers to NOBODY, including the athletic director. If Saban wanted Mal Moore gone, Mal Moore packs his bags the next day. At ND, he’d have a bunch of priests and lackeyes micromanaging him on every little thing. Do you really think he wants to put up with that nonsense??

Does anyone really think that the people running things at ND right now understand what big time college football is all about and what it takes to win on that level?? There’s no way. These are the same guys who have been dumbing down the football schedule for the last five years even though that hurts our brand and hurts our ability to win a national championship. They see ND football as a revenue generator. It’s a marketing opportunity. Come see ND football and experience the “Spirit of Notre Dame.” We saw it down in San Antonio. Meanwhile, that gimmick game completely threw us off our rhythm as a football team. We treated that WSU game like a vacation, and it showed when we were sleepwalking in the first two quarters against Navy. We have become what the Chicago Cubs were in the 80s and 90s. A gimmick built around an experience instead of a first class operation built around winning.

ND football is a lot closer to what you see at Stanford than what you see at a place like Florida. Florida is about one thing and one thing only: WINNING. That’s the #1 priority. Everyone from the president to the AD to the coach are on the same page. It’s about the Ws, and anything else is a distraction and not a priority. I see it here in Columbus too. The only thing that matters is winning. Expectations are sky high every year, and the goal is to meet them, not to rationalize with "well, 9-3 would be a step in the right direction." The goal at the Texases, Ohio States, Floridas of the world is to go 12-0 and win the national championship. Every loss is a matter of major concern, especially the big games.

Meanwhile, we're giving standing ovations after losing the USC game, sending the players to a two hour mass before the game, singing Navy's alma mater because it's "classy," and congratulating our team for squeaking out wins over bad teams like Washington and Purdue. We honor these “traditions,” but the program has become a freaking laughingstock. A big problem with our program is that we have a loser’s mentality.

Notre Dame needs to make a decision this offseason. Go big or go home. If we want to do the academic thing and play nice, let’s go join the Ivy League. At least our degrees will look great on paper. If we want to play big boy football, go “all in” and give the head coach whatever control he wants. No big time coach is going to take this job unless he has a guarantee that he will have total control of the program from top to bottom. Guys like Urban Meyer and Nick Saban have done too much in their careers to be meddled with by a bunch of ND hacks and priests. Those guys have won national titles. They can win many more titles at Florida and Alabama. If the ND job is a huge headache, they’re not even going to listen. We could offer them $20 million a year, and they aren’t taking the job unless they know they can win a national title at ND. Under the current parameters, that couldn’t happen.

ND has only gone “all in” one time in the last 30 years. That was with Lou Holtz. We basically gave him free reign to run this program however he wanted, and he brought in talent and created a winning mentality immediately. The 1988-1993 run directly stems from ND being committed 100% to being a championship football program. Once the priests started meddling again, the program took a nose dive. And we haven’t recovered. If we want to get back on top, that’s the only way to go.

The other issue is money. My other biggest fear is that we don't have the money to make a move with the $10+ million buyout to Weis. Is Jenkins going to pull the trigger on that in this economy?? That's almost double our NBC contract. It's not like Willingham where we could pony up $3-4 mill and he's gone. We signed Weis to a 10 year, $30-35 million deal. Unfreakingbelievable. That might be the worst contract decision of all time in any sport or business.

The money might not there to buy him out. Maybe some big donors pony up, but who is dropping $10-15 million to fire a football coach in this economy??

If you put a gun to my head, I’m saying Weis is back next year if he wins 1-2 more games. I just can’t see Jenkins and company pulling the trigger. I don’t think they were prepared for this type of move at all. If he wins one more game and goes to the Gator Bowl, I think they'll try to put a positive spin on the season ("playing in a New Years Day bowl", "improved record," "back to back bowl appearances," "keep continuinty in recruiting," "discernable progress," etc).

The only thing that gives me a sliver of hope (and by sliver, I mean 0.001%) is that Jack Swarbrick is an ND alum and knows that his entire tenure at ND is riding on how he handles this entire process. It's a little different than Kevin White in that respect. White will probably go the rest of his life without ever engaging in anything ND-related again, so his series of calamaties at ND are not going to be thrown in face for the rest of his life.

With Swarbrick, it's different. He's an alum from Indy. Even after he's gone as athletic director, he's probably going to be involved with ND in some capacity. Does he really want his legacy to be that he was a complete disaster as the Notre Dame AD and that he completely blew the Charlie Weis firing and subsequent hiring of another coach?? If he mails in this hire or drops the ball on Weis, he'll be an outcast in the ND community for the rest of his life. He'll be right there with Kevin White and maybe even worse since the only mandate he has had since he took the job was to figure out what to do with the head coaching position.

He's had OVER a year to contemplate this move. If he has been sitting there with his thumb up his butt all offseason without getting prepared for this possibility, it would be borderline criminal. How could he possibly not have spent time all offseason lining up his ducks just in case he needed to make a move?? Weis barely survived last year. If Weis gets forced out at the end of the year and we are running around with no plan, it would be unbelievable to me.

If I'm Swarbrick, I know that this is the moment that could put me down in the "ND legend" category if I hit a home run with this hire. He has to know that, right?? If he goes out and finds THE GUY that wins a national title at ND and puts together a long run of great teams that win big games, he will be revered for the rest of his life. Knowing all that, how could he possibly settle for some Tom O'Brien/Jim Grobe/Greg Blache/Tom Clements/Pat Fitzgerald type??

Bottom line, we'll know exactly how much thought Swarbrick put into a coaching change by how the search is conducted. If it's a three ring circus with him flying all over the place and coaches rejecting him left and right, we'll know that he spent all season (and offseason) clinging to the hope that Weis would make it. If it's a well-conducted search where we zero in our guy and get one of our top choices (if not our top choice), then I think Swarbrick will get a ton of commendation for his efforts.

1) Wanted to throw in a few last words about some of the potential hires. I'm not even discussing Urban Meyer or Nick Saban because there's no chance either of those guys are realistic options. There's nothing for them to gain from coming to ND right now. Maybe Urban Meyer becomes a possibility down the road if he burns out at Florida or goes to the NFL and fails, but luring him from Florida right now is not happening.

So I'll turn my attention to a couple other names that are floating around. First, Brian Kelly. My feelings on Brian Kelly have been stated already, and it does seem like people are really warming up to this idea of going after him. I think Brian Kelly would be the kind of personality that would light under fire under this school.

I think it would also be a great sign that ND finally means business. Believe me when I say this, Brian Kelly is not taking this job unless he gets a flat out guarantee from the administration that he will be able to run the show as he sees it. No interference, no games, no priests meddling, no backstabbing, no politics. If he doesn't have everything that he thinks he needs to win, he'll stay at Cincy and continue to build that program while also keeping an eye on other promising jobs out there. If he's still at Cincy when Michigan comes looking for a new coach (possibly after this season), I don't think Michigan can afford to pass him over again. And if that happens, look out.

That brings me to a couple of the myths that are floating out there about Brian Kelly and his suitability for the ND job. I wanted to debunk a couple of those since they are both completely absurd if you ask me.

1) "Brian Kelly can't recruit!!" ---- Hahahahahaha. Are you kidding me?? People actually believe that Brian Kelly can't recruit??? That might be the most ridiculous thing I've ever read.

Not only would Brian Kelly be a recruiting monster at Notre Dame, he would also be a more effective recruiter than Charlie Weis. Charlie Weis is a good recruiter, but he doesn't really know what types of players he wants other than pro style QBs and WRs. He's never really been able to create an identity for this team, so our recruiting tends to be grab-bagging, especially on defense. We go for 4-3 players one year, then 3-4 players, then 4-3 players, then big linemen, then smaller linemen, etc. Weis doesn't know what types of players he even wants, so our roster has ended up with a bunch of talented players who are square pegs in a round hole. Look at a guy like Kerry Neal. He's been jerked around so much that he probably has no idea what he's doing out there. He's a linebacker, then an end, then a linebacker, then an end. His career has been a complete waste. There's no consistency. There are players like that all over our roster. Could you imagine being a Notre Dame football player with the team changing defensive philosophies every single year and sometimes even from week to week??

Brian Kelly has been a head coach for 20 years. He knows EXACTLY what he's looking for on the recruiting trail. His teams have an identity that he has forged throughout his coaching career. That's why you see a guy like Pike go down and Collaros just steps right in and plays All American-caliber football. That's why you see 10 guys graduating from their defense, and he just plugs in new guys the next year. Kelly's teams don't just rely on individual talent like Weis' teams. It's a team in every way.

The other thing is that Kelly is recruiting way above his level right now at UC. He's coaching at freaking Cincinnati!! Do people not realize how pathetic Cincinnati's football history is?? UC is a commuter school in the middle of the worst neighborhood in the city (maybe the worst neighborhood in the entire country for that matter). It's a dangerous place to be at all hours of the day. The dorms look like prisons. Their facilities are a joke. They don't even have a practice field and have to practice on the Nippert Stadium field.

Put it this way, I lived in Cincy for 20 years, and I had never watched a UC game on television until about 2-3 years ago. They were never on!! No one paid attention to UC football.

Prior to Kelly getting there, UC would have like the 90th ranked recruiting class or something in that range every year. The only reason it was even "ranked" is because they rank all 117 teams. The recruiting "class" would be a series of local kids, 2 stars, one stars, and zero stars. Their recruiting region was pretty much limited to the Greater Cincinnati area.

Here are the numbers in terms of recruiting class prior to Kelly getting there and after Kelly:

2005: #94
2006: #102
2007: #89
(Kelly hired)
2008: #67
2009: #60
2010: #42

Look at how dramatic the change has been since Kelly took over at UC. He immediately moved them up 20 spots, and now he has them in the 40s with the Arizona States and UCLAs of the world. In another year or two, I could see them sneaking into the 20s. At a school like UC with a 35,000 stadium and zero tradition, that is nothing short of remarkable.

UC used to battle with MAC schools for players and lose most of the battles. Big Ten type recruits would not even visit UC let alone commit there. Now, they are going up against Big Ten schools like MSU and Purdue and even Ohio State and winning their fair share. And they are going out of state and finding guys too. Kelly is recruiting at a level that no UC fan ever dreamed of back in the day.

People act like recruiting requires some sort of advanced science degree. It doesn't. It's about one thing and one thing only: SALESMANSHIP. That's all it comes down to. Do you have the type of personality to sell yourself and your school to a recruit?? If there's one thing I'm not worried about when it comes to evaluating Brian Kelly, it's his salesmanship skills. If he wasn't a football coach, he'd be a successful businessman or a politician. The guy is a walking salesman. He's probably kissed every baby, went to every bingo hall, gone to every fundraiser, and appeared on every tv and radio station in the Greater Cincinnati in the 3 years he's been here. I've never seen anything like it in terms of promoting a football program.

Do people really think Charlie Weis is the only guy who can sell Notre Dame?? Brian Kelly would sell ND in spades to every recruit across the country. I have no doubt about it. He'd sell our tradition and our passionate fans and academics and nationwide appeal, and he'd sell his record and dynamic teams to convince recruits that ND football is about to be great again. In other words, I think he'd just continue on with what Charlie Weis has already done, but he'd actually have a plan for these players when they got on campus.

One other thing I've heard about Brian Kelly. He likes to recruit WINNERS. Guys who have won in high school. I've heard him talk about it many times. He looks for kids who have been leaders on winning teams. Guys like Zach Collaros who went 32-0 at Steubenville High School in southeast Ohio. That's the kind of mentality I want at Notre Dame. I'll take a kid like Kyle McCarthy who has a winning mentality over a more talented guy like Harrison Smith who doesn't have the same level of passion for the game any day of the week.

2) "Brian Kelly won't be able to put together a big time staff!!" -- Another completely absurd myth about Brian Kelly. People are trying to marginalize the guy as "small time" because he won't be able to attract a high profile staff. First of all, how do we even know that he's bringing his entire UC staff with him?? He fired his defensive coordinator last year even though their defense was great and brought in a guy from Virginia. Kelly is a smart guy. He is going to put together the best staff possible.

And even if he does bring in a few guys from UC, is that really such a bad thing?? Why are people so obsessed with assistants?? Look at Charlie Weis. He has brought in this all star team of assistants, but it doesn't matter. The head coach sets the tone in your program. That's why that whole "we need new assistants" stuff from last year was a bunch of nonsense.

Another great example is Urban Meyer. The guys coaching under him right now at Florida are the SAME GUYS who were coaching under Bob Davie at Notre Dame. We all thought those guys were failures and horrible assistants, but now they've magically become this great staff under Urban Meyer?? Why do you think that is?? It's because Urban is a great coach who sets expectations for his staff.

I can attest to the fact that Kerry Coombs (who is the DBs coach at UC) is an OUTSTANDING coach and one of the best high school football coaches in the history of Cincinnati high school sports. The only reason he's not a Division I head coach right now is because he coached in high school for too long and doesn't have enough time to advance up the college ladder. But Kerry Coombs built a dynasty at Colerain High School in his time there, and he has been a huge asset for the UC football program under Brian Kelly. Maybe he never coached under Woody Hayes or whatever, but Kerry Coombs is a great football coach. If he came to ND, I'd be thrilled.

Keep in mind that the same people who are trashing Brian Kelly are the same people who were trashing Urban Meyer as "small time" and all this other stuff. People who knew football knew Urban Meyer was special. I personally think the same of Brian Kelly.

Would Kelly be a guarantee at ND?? I have no clue. There are a lot of factors in play, and I still wonder if ND really has an institutional commitment to do whatever it takes to be a big boy in football again. There's always a risk with any hire. Kelly may be a disaster, but you could say that about anyone on our list. For all we know, Saban would come to ND, get railroaded by the administration, and the program would remain stagnant.

The other thing is whether ND would even be interested. I know for a fact that Michigan would not even talk to Brian Kelly because of those racial comments he made about black kids afraid to "snitch" to the cops, and he's got a political background that is not exactly in line with your typical ND administrator. A pro choice Catholic who worked on the Gary Hart presidential campaign?? Is ND going to have the guts to hire a guy like that after all those Obama protests?? The Vatican would probably issue some declaration of condemnation if we hired him.

But if I had to create a list of the best coaches in the nation and guys who seem like a natural fit at ND, Brian Kelly is on both those lists. Maybe at the top. He has the larger than life type personality that would work at ND, and he's obviously an outstanding football coach.

2) The other guy who is already getting a ton of attention is Jon Gruden. I really don't know what to make of Jon Gruden as a potential head coach at ND. I think he has that charisma that the ND coach needs, and he's certainly got a better appearance than Weis. He loves the school from what we've heard, he's won at the highest level, and I think he would turn out to be a good recruiter with his NFL pedigree and celebrity status. But we'd be wading back into that NFL pool after a failed NFL experiment, and we don't really have anything to go on in terms of knowing how well Gruden would fit in a college environment.

Do I have any idea if Gruden would be a success at ND?? Not at all. He's a complete wildcard. This is where my concerns come back into play about our athletic director. Does anyone really trust Swarbrick to make a proper evaluation of coaching candidates?? The people in charge of the last few coaching searches have gotten caught up in “magic” and “he gets it” and image, even though none of those things have anything to do with football. Will things be any different with Swarbrick??

I want the next coaching search to be about one thing and one thing only: FOOTBALL. The questions I want the people in charge to be asking include the following:

Is the guy a leader?
Do his players love playing for him?
Is he a motivator?
What is his philosophy for how to build a championship football team?
Does he want to win championships or just coach football?
Do his teams have a consistent identity??
Does he hate losing to the point of obsession (something that would have eliminated Ty Willingham immediately)?

I don't know any of those answers when it comes to Gruden. He has no track record in college football. I think he has a lot of those qualities listed above, but I'm not in a position to say one way or the other whether he meets that criteria. This is where I am hoping that Swarbrick and the BOT are doing their due diligence on Gruden. They need to be doing it now.

I was not a Gruden guy, but I'm open minded about it. I think the concerns about his offense are overblown (ND fans blowing things out of proportion?? No way!). Pete Carroll has said that he built his USC offense around Gruden's offense. Gruden has been studying with Urban Meyer and Chip Kelly this past year. He's a smart guy, and I think he'd have an offense in place that would work in college.

I'm more concerned about leadership and management. If Gruden comes to ND, is he going to be the type of coach who inspires his teams and motivates them to bring everything they've got on Saturdays?? And is he going to have a consistent philosophy when it comes to management?? Guys like Pete Carroll succeed because they have a consistency to their approach that they set in place from the very beginning. Carroll's philosophy on offense and defense have been the same throughout his tenure. His teams have an identity, and that identity overrides individual players or assistant coaches. If an assistant leaves, he just plugs another guy in. If guys graduate, new guys step up and get after it. With Weis, we change our philosophy from week to week, sometimes from game to game. If players go down, we lose continuity. To me, that comes down to management.

I'm more intrigued by Gruden than I thought I would be. I've really enjoyed hearing him on Mike and Mike, and I find him to be very intelligent and very insightful. I've learned more from Gruden in his little weekly talks with Mike and Mike than I have in 5 years of Charlie Weis press conferences. I just hope we have an athletic director in place who can figure out if he's the right guy for Notre Dame football. If he truly is, then go get him.

2010 Recruiting Update

With the end of the season fast approaching, we're getting into what has become the vitally important "second season" of college football - the recruiting home stretch. After hosting a plethora of studly high school talent for the USC game, the Irish appear positioned to make a strong charge to National Signing Day.

(A few caveats - first, most of this news is gleaned from the various recruiting sites, including, but not limited to, Mike Frank's Irish Sports Daily (ESPN) and Irish Illustrated (Rivals); second, the rankings do not reflect the most recent update by the ESPN boys, which came out this week)

OFFENSE

Quarterback

Committed:

Andrew Hendrix

Scout: 4-star, #10 QB
Rivals: 4-star, # 13 QB (Pro-Style)
ESPN: 4-star, #10 QB

Tommy Rees

Scout: 3-star, #63 QB
Rivals: 3-star, #29 QB (Pro-Style)
ESPN: 3-star, #39 QB

Following the Clausen-Crist recruiting coup of 2007-2008, Weis has struggled to build any depth at this position. He aimed high in the ’09 class and chose not to take any prospects once his first few choices went elsewhere. Perhaps nervous about the depth chart, Weis’ first few targets in the ’10 class showed little interest, leaving ND scrambling a bit during the spring and summer months to fill out the position. Hendrix jumped first, choosing the Irish over his home-state Buckeyes. Coming from a storied HS program and one of the most competitive HS leagues in the nation, Hendrix will be well-prepared to provide the necessary depth in the coming years and perhaps even compete with Dayne Crist once Clausen leaves for greener pastures. Weis liked Tommy Rees enough to offer him a scholarship shortly after Rees attended a summer camp in South Bend and Rees quickly accepted. Playing in a smaller conference in Illinois, Rees amassed some impressive stats for a lousy team, but certainly appears to possess the necessary arm strength to play at the next level.

Edit: Obviously the ACL injury has made this year's QB haul even more important, and the recent news that Tommy Rees is considering early entry is welcome as the Irish may face the prospect of opening spring practice without a scholarship QB available. Hendrix is likely the answer, long-term, but Rees' experience in a pass-happy offense may allow him the possibility to get on the field first. Definitely an interesting story line to follow...

Targets:

With Hendrix and Rees on board, the Irish are done at this position.

Running Back

Committed:

Cameron Roberson

Scout: 3-star, #44 RB
Rivals: 4-star, #15 RB
ESPN: 3-star, #38 RB

Giovanni Bernard

Scout: 4-star, #12 RB
Rivals: 4-star, #12 RB
ESPN: 4-star, #17 RB

Roberson’s story is a great one – his grandfather was one of the first African-Americans to graduate from ND, and he and his family desperately hoped Weis would come calling with an offer. When he did, ND didn’t have to wait long to get their first back, and a big one at that. Roberson runs 6’1’’ 215 lbs. and fits the mold of the Aldridge/Hughes bruiser that Weis seems to like so much. Given Weis’ decision to experiment with the big boys at the FB position, don’t be surprised if Roberson slides into a similar role. Bernard hails from St. Thomas Aquinas in Florida (see: Sam Young, Dan Wenger, Jordan Cowart, Ben Turk), the #1 ranked HS program in the country this year. Not a serious burner, Bernard is a solid every down back with good hands out of the backfield. What he may lack in breakaway speed, Bernard more than makes up for with strong running between the tackles and some nice moves in space. He also seems to go from 0-to-top speed very quickly. A very nice 1-2 punch for the Irish as Weis continues to build a very impressive stable of RBs.

Targets:

Marquis Flowers

Scout: 4-star, #13 S
Rivals: 4-star, #8 ATH
ESPN: 3-star, #30 S

Recruited as an athlete, Flowers could potentially play in the secondary as well. In fact, with Bernard's recent commitment, the Irish are likely done at RB. But if they can maintain Flowers' attention, there could certainly be room at safety. Flowers was scheduled to visit for the USC game, but the staff asked him to come back later in the season. Might that have been a turn off for the Arizona native? Michigan appears to be the only other Midwestern school he’s considering. Wouldn’t be surprised to see Flowers stay in the Pac-10.

Wide Receivers

Committed:

Tai-ler Jones

Scout: 4-star, #21 WR
Rivals: 4-star, #16 WR
ESPN: 4-star, #13 WR

Bennett Jackson

Scout: 3-star, #51 WR
Rivals: 3-star, #59 WR
ESPN: 3-star, #95 WR

Daniel Smith

Scout: 4-star, #23 WR
Rivals: 3-star, #90 WR
ESPN: 3-star, #71 WR

The Irish scored a big coup over USC weekend when 4-star Irish legacy Tai-ler Jones flipped his commitment from Stanford to ND. A prototypical slot WR, Jones has great route-running ability and is very slippery in space. If he’s able to work to develop his body in the offseason, Jones could certainly be in the mix for a role in the 2010 Irish offense. Jackson has also been labeled a slot candidate and will help to provide that position with some good depth. Smith, a South Bend local and a big body, will be headed to the outside and will likely be the target of some jump balls in the future.

Targets:

Kyle Prater

Scout: 5-star, #2 WR
Rivals: 5-star, #1 WR
ESPN: 4-star, #8 WR

A giant target and giant recruit, Prater is from Proviso West in Chicago. Rated the #2 overall recruit by Rivals, Prater has consistently included ND in a list of 5 or 6, and most recently was on campus for the USC on an unofficial visit. Prater is familiar with ND, and although he’s currently committed to USC, there are rumblings that he will ultimately stay closer to home, perhaps making this an Illinois-ND battle. Reports have Prater returning to campus later this year for an official visit, either during a November game, or perhaps for the banquet.

Corey Cooper

Scout: 4-star, #15 S
Rivals: 4-star, #17 S
ESPN: 3-star, #18 S

Currently committed to Illinois, Cooper has also been consistently linked to ND throughout the recruiting process. ND apparently likes him as a WR, although he plays both ways in HS and has publicly said that he could play DB in college as well. Cooper and Prater are good friends and reports have indicated that they might like to play together in college. After a recent visit for the SC game, Cooper appears to be leaning to ND, but hasn’t publicly decommitted from Illinois. Wouldn’t be surprised to see him flip in the near future.

Tight End

Committed:

Alex Welch

Scout: 4-star, #3 TE
Rivals: 4-star, #12 TE
ESPN: 3-star, #12 TE

Another product of the GCL, Welch hails from Cincinnati Elder, Kyle Rudolph’s alma mater. His stock soared over the summer after receiving his ND offer. Although he has had some difficulty keeping them on campus, Weis has recruited the TE position very well indeed.

Targets:

After Welch’s commitment, the Irish are likely done here. CJ Fiedorowicz was one of ND’s first offers in this class, but both parties parted ways fairly early in the process.

Offensive Line

Committed:

Christian Lombard

Scout: 4-star, #1 G
Rivals: 3-star, #58 T
ESPN: 3-star, #21 T

The recruiting gurus don’t seem to know what to make of Lombard. Scout thinks he’ll be a great guard, while Rivals and ESPN think he’s an “eh” tackle. Lombard performed well at the junior combine of the Army All-American game last year where he publicly committed to the Irish. Playing tackle for his Fremd HS team in IL, Lombard has paved the way for a dominant rushing attack.

Targets:

Seantrel Henderson

Scout: 5-star, #1 OT
Rivals: 5-star, #1 OT
ESPN: 5-star, #1 OT

The consensus #1 offensive lineman in the country (and #1 player overall to Rivals), Henderson is a mammoth man, and the most important uncommitted player on ND’s board. Currently attending Cretin-Derham Hall in Minnesota (Mike Floyd’s HS), Henderson was on campus for the USC game and apparently came away very impressed with the school and the atmosphere. Expect this one to come down to National Signing Day with ND’s primary competition coming from USC and OSU.

Matt James

Scout: 4-star, #11 OT
Rivals: 4-star, #7 OT
ESPN: 4-star, #14 OT

A frequent visitor to ND during the spring, summer and fall, James (from Cincinnati St. Xavier) has apparently narrowed his choices down to ND, OSU and Cincinnati with the Bearcats perhaps holding a narrow edge. James has gone silent recently, leading some to believe that ND might be out of this race.

James Stone

Scout: 4-star, #14 OT
Rivals: 4-star, #24 OT
ESPN: 4-star, #10 OT

Big prospect from SEC country. Stone also visited for the SC game and had himself a good time. This is another duel that could come down until January, with Alabama perhaps being the big competition here.

Brandon Linder

Scout: 4-star, #1 C
Rivals: 4-star, #3 C
ESPN: 4-star, #2 C

Another recruit from powerhouse St. Thomas Aquinas in Florida, Linder has long been connected with ND. In fact, before Latina was let go, the Irish may have been the prohibitive favorite to land his services. But after visiting during the SC game and meeting with Verducci, it sounds like ND has positioned themselves quite well. Expect this one to come down to ND and Miami.

Arie Kouandjio

Scout: 3-star, #36 OT
Rivals: 4-star, #13 OT
ESPN: 3-star, #14 OG

A product of DeMatha in Maryland, Kouandjio has been lingering on the outskirts of the Irish recruiting world as he has yet to visit the campus. An official has been rumored however, and if ND can get the big fella on campus, they have to like their chances. Interestingly enough, the Irish basketball program might be the biggest recruiting tool for Kouandjio, as several DeMatha kids have been visiting South Bend to check out Mike Brey this fall.

SUMMARY

The Irish have done a good job assembling some reinforcements for the offense, but there are still some HUGE targets left on the board. While landing Kyle Prater and/or Corey Cooper would be fantastic, the priority at this point has to be OL. All of the remaining OL prospects can conceivably play tackle, one of the biggest need positions for ND in the very near future. ND has set the table for Henderson, James, Stone and Linder, all of whom have already taken their official visits to South Bend. The Irish need to continue to string together wins on the field to keep these guys interested. Missing out on Prater/Cooper would be acceptable, but Weis needs to close at least 2 of the Henderson/James/Stone/Linder/Kouandjio group.

Coming this weekend - the defensive recruits...

WEISND Roundtable Week 10 Picks: Notre Dame-Navy, Oregon-Stanford, Ohio State-Penn State, Oklahoma-Nebraska, and LSU-Alabama

Hot button issues are popping up left and right off the field for Notre Dame, but don't forget about that 2009 season!! There's still a lot to play for here, and it starts with Navy. Hopefully this team can start out the month of November with a dominant performance over Navy. Oh, and no more major injuries please. I think I've had about enough of those for one year.

On to the picks:

Oregon -4.5 at Stanford (FSN 3:30pm)

Jeremy: Oregon (-4.5) – LOCK OF THE WEEK

I know Oregon is primed for a letdown game, but the bottom line here is that Stanford just isn’t that good. At least not +4.5 good. Sure, they have a nice running game, and Andrew Luck will probably be a good QB at some point during his career, but apart from last week’s W over Arizona St., Stanford hasn’t beaten a team with a pulse this year. They’ve played some tough road games against teams like Wake, Oregon St. and Arizona, but color me unimpressed. Brutal stretch for the Cardinal the next few weeks too – Oregon, @ USC, Cal, and closing with the Irish at home. Fortunately, 3 of the 4 games are in Palo Alto, but Stanford would be lucky to win just one of those games. The Ducks, on the other hand, are coming off arguably win the biggest win in the school’s history. I think they keep the momentum going and beat Stanford quite handily this weekend.

Oregon 38 Stanford 20

Dan: Oregon -4.5 – LOCK OF THE WEEK

Brief analysis from me this week as I am traveling. This line seems too small for me even in a predictable let down game away from home. But Stanford is too good to sneak up on other Pac 10 teams at this point.

Oregon 31 Stanford 24

Matt: Stanford +4.5

It goes without saying that this game has all the makings of a letdown game for Oregon. And before I go any further, let me be the first to apologize for bestowing Lock of the Year status on the Trojans last week in Eugene. I was obviously blinded by the name on the jersey. But as a Notre Dame fan, can I just comment on how pathetic that game made me feel. Here we are celebrating as if it some big accomplishment that ND kept it close against USC, and Oregon goes and blows the doors off of what has turned out to be the worst USC team since Pete Carroll turned them into USC.

Oregon 31 Stanford 28

Mike: Oregon (-4.5):

Obviously, there is a possible letdown angle at play with Oregon coming off a monumental win over USC while Stanford rested its wounds during an off week. After watching Oregon’s offense dismantle the once-proud USC defense in such thorough fashion, however, there is no way I am going to pick against the Ducks in this spot. Stanford will keep this game close at home for 3 quarters, but Oregon will eventually pull away in the fourth quarter to draw one step closer to ending USC’s remarkable run of 7 straight Pac 10 titles.

Oregon 41 Stanford 31

Doug: Oregon -4.5

Maybe this is a trap game, but how can I go against the Ducks after that performance last week?? They are looking unstoppable right now. Maybe the best team in the nation. How is Stanford going to stop that offense??

Oregon's trick on offense seems to be their tempo. I don't think it's just the spread option or their "speed." I don't think they are really that fast. They just play fast. I think it's the way they come at you within that offense. They just attack, attack, attack at full throttle. It's like they are in the hurry up offense at all times. I like that it creates a sense of urgency for your players. Maybe that hurts them in time of possession or whatever, but who cares when you are putting up 45 points??

I actually think more teams should just go to the 2 minute/hurry up offense as their base offense. Why not?? Instead of muddling around, just go down the field and score. Look at ND. We'll dilly around for 25 minutes, go to the 2 minute offense, and score a touchdown. We seem to do our best work in the hurry up offense. Why not just play like that for the whole game?? If we put 45 on the board, time of possession is irrelevant.

I just love the mentality. Oregon wants to blow you out of the building. More teams should play with that mindset. I'm also looking at you Ohio State. Ohio State plays like they want to win every game 10-7. What kind of message does that send to your players?? Why not go into every game looking to win 45-10??

Oregon might have a letdown here, but Stanford is really not all that good. It's Stanford. Their defense stinks, and they don't have all that much athleticism. I think Oregon will keep it rolling and win this game comfortably.

Oregon 34 Stanford 24

Ohio State +4.5 at Penn State (ABC Sports 3:30pm)

Jeremy: Ohio State (+4.5)

This makes no sense at all, but for some reason, I think Terrelle Pryor is about to take a big step forward. I completely admit there’s almost no evidence to support this, but I think he’s had this game circled since he arrived in Columbus two years ago. The crowd in Beaver Stadium is going to be out for blood (preferably his), but I think the combination of OSU’s suffocating front seven and Pryor’s athleticism keeps this game close very deep into the 4th quarter. Unfortunately for the Buckeyes, Aaron Pettrey’s injury last week throws a wrench in the gameplan and OSU misses a late FG, allowing PSU to escape with a 1-point win.

PSU 14 OSU 13

Dan: Ohio State +4.5

Ughh… I’m not touching this one. Penn State hasn’t played anyone and Ohio State has no offense. I really don’t have a read on this one.

Penn State 13 Ohio State 10

Matt: Penn State -4.5

I can’t remember a Penn State – Ohio State game with less fanfare. And it’s not like there are a ton of big games this weekend. People around the country are just really sick of the Big 10. Iowa is a fraud much like Penn State last year, and people I think would rather watch a Tennessee-Auburn type game then the Big 10.

Penn State 24 Ohio State 17

Mike: Penn State (-4.5)- LOCK OF THE WEEK:

Following the Iowa loss, the Nittany Lions have been playing excellent football. Although Penn State hasn’t played great competition, they are trouncing their opponents on a weekly basis behind a high powered offense and a dominant defense. Ohio State has notched two blowout wins themselves against bad teams, but questions remain for the Buckeyes, particularly on offense. At this point in the season, there is a clear difference in the level of play between these two teams and the superior outfit happens to be playing at home. Accordingly, I don’t expect a particularly compelling contest in Happy Valley.

Penn State 33 Ohio State 14

Doug: Ohio State +4.5 - LOCK OF THE WEEK

Everything about this game points to a blowout win for Penn State, but isn't Ohio State overdue for a big win as a program?? How many of these big games can they lose in a row?? Top to bottom, Ohio State has better talent than Penn State. Why couldn't they win this game?? Iowa went to Happy Valley and won. Tressel has done it before in the past. In fact, they went out there in 2007 and ran Penn State off the field.

For Buckeye fans, I think the biggest concern is that they play too conservatively on offense, settle for field goals, and PSU makes a few plays down the stretch to win it. I could EASILY see that happening. Tressel doesn't trust Terrelle Pryor at this point, and there's no chance he's going to let Pryor cost them with a bad turnover. They are going to play the field position game, play for field goals, and hope it's enough to pull the game out in the fourth quarter. From what we've seen in recent big games for Ohio State, that is not a winning formula. If Tressel leans too hard on Tresselball, they'll lose this game.

Here's the thing that I don't get about Jim Tressel. Doesn't he know by now that Tresselball does not work in the big games?? How could he not know this?? It's a terrible way to prepare your team. All it does is give your team a lack of confidence. It's almost as if Tressel is telling his guys that he doesn't trust them to make plays and win the game, and that the only way to win is for him to manage the field position game. What kind of message does that send to your team?? Why not go in with a mentality that you want to win the game by 20??

Doesn't Tressel also realize that his team has had its most success recently when he has abandoned Tressel Ball?? Early on in the Fiesta Bowl last year against Texas, Tressel was trying to win that game 13-10 and playing the field position game. It worked for a little while, but it's not a sustainable way to win a football game against another big time team. You can only play field position so long. Well, of course, Tressel Ball blew up in his face, and suddenly they were down 10 and had to go into desperation mode. Wouldn't you know it, they actually came alive and took the lead with 2 minutes to go before Colt McCoy came down and won the game. Does Tressel not see this?? Doesn't he realize that his team does its best work when he takes the reins off and just lets them play ball??

What is he so afraid of?? Tressel Ball is a bad model to win games, so why not let it all hang out one of these games and see what happens?? Why not come out with TP running wild and throwing the ball down field and giving your team a bunch of confidence?? If he turns it over 5 times and you lose 27-10, so be it. There's no difference between losing 27-10 and 13-10. Losses are losses. I'd be willing to bet that Ohio State would respond favorably and play their best game of the season if Tressel actually opened it up and played aggressive football.

Look at Oregon. Those guys go pedal to the medal full throttle for 60 minutes. How can you not love that as a player that your coaches trust your ability?? Wouldn't you be brimming with confidence if you were always attacking? Oregon has a big game mentality. I love that. Imagine how good Terrelle Pryor would be if he was the quarterback at Oregon. He'd be unstopppable.

Here's what I would do if I was Ohio State. I would go up to Terrelle Pryor on Monday morning, and say "we are putting this game on your shoulders." I would tell him that they are running him 25 times on Saturday with zone reads, scrambles, draws, etc. And then I'd be rolling him out and letting him make throws down the field. Go for the win. You've got a 6'6", 240 pound quarterback who runs a 4.4 40. Figure something out to let that guy win the game for you. The rest of the team is good. Good Wrs, decent Rbs, good defense, great defensive line. If Ohio State goes out and plays aggressively, I think they can and will win this game.

With that said, it probably won't happen. Tressel will go with Tressel Ball because that's all he knows. I don't know why I should expect any differently. Even though I think that's a losing formula, I'll take the Buckeyes to pull the "upset" in a close, low scoring game. If they get blown out, oh well. My picks have been terrible all year anyway.

Ohio State 17 Penn State 13

LSU +9 at Alabama (CBS Sports 3:30pm)

Jeremy: Alabama (-9)

That does seem like quite a few points for an SEC showdown, but LSU has not shown the ability to score points against a quality defense yet this year. Bama’s got the best D in the nation, and I don’t see the Tigers putting up more than 6 against them. Julio Jones is due for a breakout day. Bama covers, but not by much.

Alabama 17 LSU 6

Dan: LSU +9 at Alabama

Two guys who just win big games. If Ingram has a good day, he could really strengthen his Heisman chances. But 9 points is too much in this defensive showdown.

Alabama 20 LSU 13

Matt: LSU +9

In case you haven’t noticed, Alabama’s offense has been regressing as the season has gone on, very much atypical of a Nick Saban coached team. Up until a few weeks ago I thought that Alabama was the best team in the country, but now I’m not so sure. Nevertheless, coming off a bye and playing at home I expect them to feed Ingram and pull out a tough win.

Alabama 21 LSU 14

Mike: Alabama (-9):

With an off week for the players to rest and the coaches to perform self-scouting, I will be surprised if Nick Saban doesn’t have his team performing at a peak level this week. If Bama indeed comes to play in this game as I suspect, there is no way that LSU will be able to keep pace with the Tide in Tuscaloosa. LSU’s defense should be able to hang tough for most of the game, but they will eventually wear down from being put into bad situations by the middling Tiger offense.

Alabama 31 LSU 12

Doug: Alabama -9

My instinct is to take LSU and the points, so I'm going with the opposite and taking Bama. They've been off for a week, they got a needed rest, and Saban has probably been hammering in their heads all week how they don't get any respect. It's amazing how quickly everyone has started discounting Bama because they had one close game with Tennessee. Bama is really good. They just didn't play well against a red hot Vols team that is peaking down the stretch. Tennessee might be one of the 15-20 best teams in the nation right now, and I think they are going to win out and end up 8-4. Lane Kiffin is suddenly revving things up in Knoxville.

Anyway, LSU is winning ballgames, but I feel like Alabama is going to be on a mission Saturday.

I'll take the Tide by double digits.

Alabama 17 LSU 6

Oklahoma -6.5 at Nebraska (ABC Sports 8pm)

Jeremy: Oklahoma (-6.5)

I really don’t think much of either of these teams (or really anyone in the Big 12, outside of Texas). Oklahoma is somehow still hanging around the Top 25 even though their best player is out for the rest of the year, and their best win came against another disappointing Big 12 team (Kansas). Many people (myself included) had the Huskers pegged to be a bit of a sleeper this year. But things definitely haven’t gone as planned in Lincoln thus far. Sure, they beat Mizzou on the road, and had that one point loss at Va Tech. But where’s the progress? Where’s the big step forward? The Huskers are 2-2 in a very mediocre Big 12 and have really looked lost at times, especially during the 9-7, turnover-filled loss at home to Iowa St. In a battle between two teams that have definitely failed to live up to expectations, Oklahoma wins going away.

OU 33 Nebraska 15

Dan: Nebraska +6.5

I think Pelini gets his guys up enough to keep this one closer than Nebraska’s debacle against Texas Tech.

OU 24 Nebraska 20

Matt: Oklahoma -9.5 LOCK OF THE WEEK

I don’t know what is going on in Lincoln. They should not be having 8 turnover losses to Iowa State at home. I kind of like this Landry Jones guy. I think Oklahoma wins big.

Oklahoma 31 Nebraska 13

Mike: Oklahoma (-6.5):

This is a tough game to call. Bo Pelini should have his Huskers fired up for a big game before the home crowd in Lincoln (sigh…just had a flashback to my trip to Lincoln in 2001 and realized that I’ll never get to make another cool road trip under the abominable 7-4-1 model) and Oklahoma’s young offensive line will likely have some difficulty handling Ndamaukong Suh. Nebraska, however, has too many problems on offense, namely at quarterback, to contend with the Oklahoma defense. The Sooners will stifle the Husker offense and Landry Jones, who continues to improve on a weekly basis, will make enough plays in the passing game to notch a big road win.

Oklahoma 31 Nebraska 21

Doug: Oklahoma -6.5

I'll be the first to say that I have been awful at these picks for a good month now, but this line looks too low when you stack these two teams up. I think I've picked just about every dog to cover against the big boys for a good month and lost almost all of them. Time to start giving some more respect to the big boys. The great teams get better as the year goes along, so nothing wrong with taking a favorite to cover.

Anyway, Oklahoma is one of those big time teams that gets better and better as the season goes along. Look at what they've done the last couple weeks. They destroyed Kansas and Kansas State. They aren't what they were last year, but they're still a real good team.

Meanwhile, Nebraska is a notch below. There's really not much of a difference right now between somebody like Nebraska and a team like Texas Tech or Kansas or any other middling Big 12 team. It's sad to say, but Nebraska isn't in OU's class anymore. I personally don't think we'll ever see an elite Nebraska program ever again. The talent shift to the south has been too dramatic for them to keep pace with OU and Texas. I really think Nebraska would be better off trying to join the Big 10 and competing with the schools in the north again.

By the way, I never understood how OU got all these elite guys out of the state of Texas, but now I get it. I didn't realize how close OU's campus is to the northern part of the state of Texas. I was looking at a map of Texas before the trip to San Antonio, and Norman is really no farther from Dallas than Austin is. It's basically the same. For a Texas kid, going to OU might actually keep you closer to home than going to Texas would. That northern part of Texas is sort of like Toledo. It's in Ohio, but Toledo sometimes has stronger ties to the state of Michigan than it does Ohio. Same with northern Texas. In terms of geography, you are more connected to Oklahoma than you are to Austin and San Antonio.

Oklahoma 31 Nebraska 17

Notre Dame - Navy (NBC Sports 3:30pm)

Jeremy: Notre Dame

The Irish have reached the month of November just about where most ND fans thought they’d be. Certainly no one could have expected the road would include so many close 4th quarter battles and so much injury drama. Even the snoozer against Wazzu resulted in a bad ankle sprain for Trevor Robinson and a torn ACL for Dayne Crist, placing the 2010 season in serious jeopardy for those choosing to look ahead a bit.

Speaking of looking ahead, ND could be eyeing the potential monster matchup next weekend in Pittsburgh as the game that will likely make-or-break the Irish’s BCS hopes. But they’d better not sleep on the Middies because those option-loving, cut-blocking, sons-of-you-know-whats are sure to give the Irish headaches for at least part of Saturday afternoon. ND defended the option masterfully last year, effectively taking away the FB dive and often forcing Navy into 3rd and long. The Irish will miss David Bruton’s steady play in the secondary, but the rapidly improving front seven should help to mitigate his loss.

On offense, the Irish had little trouble running against the Middies last year, so look for Weis to continue to pound it on the ground, as he did so successfully against the overmatched Cougars last week. Jimmy Clausen gets Michael Floyd back this week, but here’s guessing the coaches will be worrying more about keeping Floyd healthy than getting him a bunch of looks.

The battle on 1st down will be critical on Saturday, as it is so often against the triple option. The Irish have to force Navy into 2nd/3rd and long situations to take them out of their comfort zone. I certainly don’t expect the Irish to duplicate the same success they had last year on defense, but I also don’t expect the Middies to keep ND from scoring too often. The Irish win big again and set the table for a HUGE matchup against the Panthers.

ND 45 Navy 24

Dan: Notre Dame

Notre Dame in a big win. Manti has a huge day all over the field and Floyd gets 2 TDs in his first game back!

Matt: Notre Dame

I just want to touch on two things here, but before I do let me say that ND should win this game by 3 td’s and I will be disappointed if they don’t, so no analysis needed. Ok….

1) Jimmy Clausen should absolutely go pro after this year (if he wants to) and there shouldn’t be a Notre Dame fan out there who cries about it. Clausen has given everything he could to this program, from the beating he took as a true freshman to turning into the best QB in Notre Dame history. Why risk getting Bradforded behind a rebuilding offensive line next year. Plus, he’s already 22 years old. His NFL clock is already ticking and he’s here executing gameplans against freaking Washington State. Now…if Clausen comes back, great. It will be an explosive offense. But I don’t think he will nor do I think he should.

2) The scheduling issue. Doug and Mike have done a great job diving into the scheduling discussion, schedule strength rankings etc. But after that game against Washington State (I only saw a few plays, but I was embarrassed that Notre Dame was playing in a half to three quarters full stadium), here is a 10,000 foot look at the program’s recent scheduling decisions.

a) Told (albeit reportedly) Alabama and Georgia we would not play a home and home with them instead demanding a home-neutral series
b) Won’t return Miami’s phone calls about a game
c)Resigned a contract with Purdue with all games in September and rotating home and home
d) Unsigned contract for upcoming series with Oklahoma sitting on Jack Swarbrick’s desk
5) Agreed to play game in Yankee Stadium – against Army
6) Added Tulsa to home schedule
7) Added Western Michigan to home schedule

I don’t need to look at Sagarin rankings, quotes from the athletic director, polls or anything else to tell me where the direction of this program is headed. And it’s a shame…

Mike: Notre Dame (outright):

This year’s Navy team appears to be about equivalent to last year’s edition, which was manhandled for Notre Dame for about 54 minutes before the Irish almost sent me to the hospital with their attempt at a choke job for the ages. By contrast, the Irish are obviously improved over last year and Jimmy Clausen should play infinitely better than he did in last year’s debacle in Baltimore, even with his turf toe issues. While Navy’s option attack is formidable, the improved Irish run defense should be able to build on its success in recent weeks. Moreover, unlike prior years under play calling extraordinaire Paul Johnson, Navy has struggled badly in the passing game in 2009. Hence, a fast start will be especially conducive to success for the host Irish.

Navy usually comes to play against Notre Dame and the Middies will certainly believe that they have a shot to win this game. Nonetheless, I expect the Irish to slow Navy’s running attack on defense and score with very little resistance on offense, thus leading to a comfortable victory. Assuming that the Irish win this game, I will be joining them in Pittsburgh for a critical night game against the soon-to-be 8-1 Panthers

Notre Dame 38 Navy 21

Doug: Notre Dame

There's nothing to say about this game other than the obvious. Navy lost to Temple last week. TEMPLE!! That's all you need to know. If ND shows up to play and stays disciplined on defense, we'll win this game by double digits. If we show up sleepwalking and don't execute, we'll probably get into a dogfight that we want no part of.

I will say that people need to get 2007 out of their system. That was a once-in-a-lifetime type scenario with an ND team that had essentially packed it in for the year. Just about every other year, we have handled Navy by running the football down their throats and blowing up their option attack in the backfield. ND's defensive line has been getting better and better every week, and Tenuta's attacking scheme is the perfect defense to shut down a team like Navy. If we blow things up in the middle and force them to the edge (where Te'o will do some serious damage), we're going to create turnovers and win this game comfortably.

My prediction is that this game will be tight for about a quarter and a half, we'll adjust to their option attack, and then we'll start pounding it up and down the field. That's how this game seems to play out every year. We'll start freaking out when the game looks close early, but then we have a monster drive that completely demoralizes them. By the 3rd-4th time we've seen their option offense, we've adjusted to shut it down. Our offensive line is so much bigger than their defensive line it's not even funny.

The other thing is that Navy has absolutely no answer for Golden Tate or Michael Floyd or Jimmy Clausen for that matter. People forget that Clausen was really in a funk at this time last year, and that's part of the reason why we had some early problems with Navy. This year, it's a completely different story. ND is playing good football, Floyd is back, and the defense gets better every week.

I see no reason why ND won't blow Navy out this week. All it takes is a few drives to grab the lead, and they are done. Their quarterback is hurt, so their anemic passing game will look even worse this week.

ND wins this game and sets up a big showdown at Heinz Field next Saturday. Can't wait to get to the 'Burgh for that one.

ND 31 Navy 10

Bonus Picks:

Matt:

Wake Forest +16

Heartbreaking loss (but great cover) for the Deacs last week. Just couldn’t make the plays or stop the athletes on Miami when they needed to. I don’t know why I think they will hang with the Jackets on the road, but this line seems really high to me.

GT 30 Wake Forest 20

Doug:

Bengals +3 over Baltimore -- This line is a slap in the face!! The first place Bengals are dogs at home to the team that they just beat on the road a few weeks ago. The Bengals are officially the Rodney Dangerfields of the NFL. No respect!

With that said, the Bengals are probably the biggest Jekyll and Hyde team in the NFL, so I have absolutely no idea what to expect out of them from week to week. They win at Baltimore, lose at home to the Texans, and then destroy the Bears in one of the best halfs I have ever seen out of the Bengals in all the years I've been a fan. Nothing would really surprise me.

Huge huge game in terms of the AFC North race. For the Bengals, a win over Baltimore puts them at 4-0 in the division with a game still left at home against Cleveland. The Bengals can pretty much control all the tiebreakers in the division if they finish 5-1. And if they somehow sweep the next two games over Baltimore and Pittsburgh, the Bengals essentially wrap up the division by week 9. I don't expect them to win both these games, but I'd love to get this Baltimore game and then go to Pittsburgh with house money in hand.

For Baltimore, it's weird to say this in week 9, but I think their season is basically on the line this week. They cannot afford to fall to 1-2 in the division with two games still left against Pittsburgh. If the Ravens get swept by the Bengals this year, I think that's a sign that they are just not that good this year.

I expect the Ravens to give the Bengals their absolute best shot on Sunday. Ray Lewis is probably injecting himself with multiple doses of HGH as we speak. They destroyed the Broncos last week, so they may be starting to hit their stride. Baltimore has the big game pedigree that the Bengals have lacked in the past, so there's a lot of reason to think that the Ravens will come into Cincy and win. If I was a neutral betting man, I think I'd probably take the Ravens here.

Two keys for this game for the Bengals:

1) Defense, defense, defense -- When the Bengals play hardnosed defense and attack and stuff the run, they are a really good football team. When they have trouble getting a pass rush and don't bottle up the run, they're very ordinary. In the AFC North, it all starts with your defense. You have to bring it defensively in these types of games.

2) Carson Palmer -- I will probably jinx things by saying this, but I think we're finally out of the woods with the Carson Palmer ACL injury. Carson is officially back to what he was before he got hurt in January 2006. That's how long it has taken. Three full seasons to really get back to what he was before the injury. Might have to expand on that topic as it pertains to the Dayne Crist injury because I've seen firsthand how long these ACL issues can last.

Palmer looked as good as he has ever looked against the Bears. Firing bullets, moving around, super accurate, great poise. When Carson is hot, he is as good as any quarterback in the league. Give him the ball with two minutes to go to win the game, and he usually finds a way to come through.

Anyway, Carson just has to keep playing well, Cedric Benson has to continue running hard, and the Bengals should be able to score points on this Ravens' defense.

If the Bengals spent the bye week congratulating themselves and telling themselves how great they are, they'll get run off the field. If they come out and play inspired football like they did against the Bears, I like their chances. I think it will be another back and forth game that goes down to the last minute, but I'll take the Bengals to pull off the "upset" and move to 6-2. 4-0 in the division with a MONSTER game looming in Pittsburgh the following week would be awfully sweet.

One other note on the Bengals. I've been reading a lot of stuff lately in the Enquirer and some blogs about Bengals fans who are holding a grudge about Mike Brown and don't want to support the Bengals' success this year. I'll be the first to say that I get it to some degree and can understand why fans are bitter about 20 years of borderline criminal negligence by Mike Brown in running this franchise (all while pocketing hundreds of millions of dollars over that time period), but at what point do you just put that aside for the time being and embrace what we have going right now?? 5-2 and in first place in the AFC North. I've been as bitter as anyone and have supported every boycott/protest that has been cooked up in the last 20 years, but I'll be the first to admit that the Bengals have stumbled into a pretty good situation this year. Cedric Benson was an absolute gift, and they've made some shrewd acquisitions in the front seven and in the secondary the last 3-4 years. Whether people want to give them credit or not, they have made a number of very good selections in the draft lately.

Bengals 24 Ravens 23

Syracuse +21.5 at Pittsburgh -- Possible trap game for Pitt if they are looking ahead to the big ND showdown and stretch run Big East games against WVU and Cincy. I could see this game being like 14-10 in the 3rd quarter.

UConn +16.5 at Cincy -- Primetime game for UC on ABC at Nippert!! Wow, pretty amazing stuff.

I'm not really sure what Cincy should do about the quarterback situation. Tony Pike has been a great player and might be a NFL type pick, but their offense might actually be more dangerous with Callaros in there. Callaros gives them the threat of a running attack that they don't get with Tony Pike. As he gets more and more confident with the passing game, he might turn out to be more effective for their offense than Pike. Callaros is kind of like UC's Jeremiah Masoli.

Tough call for UC. I think they are almost obligated to go back to Pike, but they are hitting the stretch run here and really need to be hitting on all cylinders. Now that they've found this extra gear with Callaros, is it going to hurt their momentum to work Tony Pike back in?? Honestly, if it were up to me, I think I might be tempted to just ride the hot hand with Callaros and see where he takes you.

Last Week:

Jeremy: 4-2
Dan: 1-5
Matt: 2-4
Mike: 3-3
Doug: 2-4

Season:

Jeremy: 34-22-1
Dan: 29-27-1
Matt: 25-31-1
Mike: 25-31-1
Doug: 27-30-1

Locks of the Week:

Jeremy: 6-2
Dan: 4-4-1
Matt: 3-5
Mike: 3-5
Doug: 3-6