Thoughts on Lane Kiffin to USC

Had to throw in some thoughts on this Lane Kiffin thing.

7) Even though we don't really how Kiffin will turn out at USC (he could very easily be a complete disaster--more on that below), I have to say that considering they had three days to put it together, I am pretty impressed with what USC has accomplished. I won't say it's a great hire because Kiffin is a wildcard, but a pretty good hire with major upside. Even if Kiffin turns out to be Ron Zook 2.0, at least he is going to recruit like crazy and keep the cupboard stocked if they have to make another hire in 3-5 years.

Put it this way, I think USC made a better move going all in on a guy like Kiffin (even with his downside) than by hiring some Herm Edwards type retread who would go 8-4, 7-5, 9-3, 5-7 with subpar recruiting before getting run out of town. If you hired a guy like that, he'd leave the next coach with a bare cupboard and no momentum. At least Kiffin is going to land you a bunch of top 5 classes in the next few years. If he can't coach them, the next guy will. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me at all if that's what ended up happening. And if it turns out Kiffin can coach and wins big, then you just stole this guy at 34 years old for the next decade.

Kiffin is a pro style guy and 4-3 defense guy, so they are going to have a bunch of continuity in recruiting players that fit a traditional USC team. It's not like they are going to a spread option offense that would leave the next coach with a bunch of bad fits for a typical USC team. USC really doesn't have to go in some wildly different direction with Kiffin, so there's not much at stake here if he doesn't work out in the long run like there is with Rich Rodriguez at Michigan.

Their defense should be strong with Monte Kiffin and Ed Orgeron running the show. USC has won with their defense the last 3-4 years, and I would be surprised if their defense drops off a ton under Monte and Coach O. In terms of defensive staff, you really can't do any better than Monte Kiffin and Ed Orgeron. Those two guys have a lot invested in this gig as well, so they are probably going to do everything possible to make this thing work.

Offensively, I would say it's a mixed bag (especially without Norm Chow), but I think people are too quick to think that Kiffin is a complete hack on the offensive side of the ball. I was actually fairly impressed with what he did at Tennessee in his one year there. They were a complete disaster offensively in the previous regime under Phil Fulmer, but Kiffin really started to make some progress there as the season went along. Hardesty and Crompton were considered busts until this year, and Kiffin got good production out of both of them. I mentioned quite a few times as the season went along that I was impressed with what Kiffin was doing at Tennessee this year. All offseason going into this year, I thought Kiffin was going to be a disaster, but I gotta say that I thought he did a nice job this year.

And even with the Oakland Raiders, Kiffin had them running the ball and doing some things offensively by the end of the year. Considering how big of a joke that organization is in terms of personnel and bad management, I felt like they were making some progress under Kiffin and then Al Davis pulls the plug.

6) The question is whether he can win. Even if you think that he has some ability as a coach, he has basically ZERO track record at this point. Yes, he can bring in players and seems to have this posse of assistants willing to follow him wherever he goes (by the way, how weird is it that he calls his dad by his first name?), but he hasn't won any games. First year records are overrated for head coaches as we've seen in the past with Nick Saban and Tressel and Pete Carroll, but those guys all had track records that gave you confidence that first year struggles would quickly turn into success in year two and beyond. You KNEW that Nick Saban was going to win in year two even though they only went 6-6 in the first year. That first year was to break down his team before he built them up for the long haul.

With Kiffin, was he going to improve on that 7-6 record in year two?? I personally think that he would have, but we really have no idea where things were headed. He might have ramped up to 9 wins or he might have flatlined. He has no history as a head coach. Of course, neither did guys like Bob Stoops and Mark Richt, so track record as a head coach is not always important.

5) Here's another angle on Kiffin that I don't understand coming from USC fans. USC people are bemoaning the fact that he's a scumbag like he's going to bring shame to the program by cheating and acting unethically. HELLO?!?! Where have these USC people been for the last decade?? How would that be any different for USC?? USC is probably the biggest renegade program in the country and has been for the last 40 years.

And it's not like they are replacing some model of integrity in Pete Carroll. Carroll was living with a freaking grad student!! Do people really think Pete Carroll was this super ethical guy?? Come on.

For the record, I could care less if schools cheat. It's part of the game, and I'm a "just win, baby" kinda guy. But for USC to act like they replaced a saint with a cheater is hilarious.

4) Anyway, here's where I think this Kiffin thing could go south a little bit:

1) He's not Pete Carroll -- USC seems to be selling this hire like they just hired Pete Carroll, Jr., but the two couldn't be more different in terms of background before taking the USC job. I know Pete Carroll acts like he's 25, but he's 58 years old. It's not like he was some young buck 34 year old when he took over at USC. He already had been an assistant at Ohio State and Arkansas and had been in the NFL a long time and had even been an NFL head coach TWICE before taking the USC job. When you look back, it really shouldn't have been a huge surprise that Carroll was so successful at USC. He showed up at USC in his coaching prime and had the experience and background to create this college/pro hybrid enterprise at USC. He was the perfect fit for USC at that stage of his career.

With Kiffin, he's learned football under Pete Carroll and his dad and that's it. He's been in the coaching business for 10 years essentially. Meanwhile, Carroll had been coaching for 25 years before he took over at SC. There's really no comparison between the two.

2) He's got a little Matt Doherty in him -- Not in the sense that he is a serial job jumper, but more in the sense that he seems willing to step all over anyone and burn bridges to get what he wants. That can get you to a really good spot (just like Doherty landed at UNC), but can you be successful when you get to that level?? Seems like the UT players didn't trust him and weren't 100% bought in to what he was selling them. And he has no doubt burned a ton of bridges with families and high school coaches by running from the UT job to SC.

Isn't all this stuff going to come back to haunt him?? And if he starts out slowly at SC and the pressure builds, is he going to turn on his players and start throwing people under the bus?? I could absolutely see this happening. He hasn't really been at a job long enough to have any established track record with his players or the media, and now he's at probably the most high profile job in the country with an intense Los Angeles media breathing down his neck at all times.

Just feels very Matt Doherty-ish to me. I will admit that I was impressed with what Doherty accomplished in his one year at ND. He came in, built up a ton of enthusiasm (I was on campus at the time and the enthusiasm was real), he recruited like crazy, and he had a good season with some huge upset wins. On the surface, Doherty revived ND basketball and made it matter on campus again. Below the surface, there was turmoil. Players revolted and felt like he threw them under the bus after every loss. If he had stayed 2-3 more years at ND, he would have crashed and burned.

Instead, he got out after one year and crashed at burned at UNC. Doesn't that feel eerily similar to this Lane Kiffin thing??? Kiffin built up some momentum in his one year at Tennessee, but it feels sort of like a Ponzi scheme. He's selling all this hype to recruits and talking trash and pumping guys up with phony song and dance stuff, but what would have happened if he goes into year two and starts losing again and players lose trust in him and the team falls apart?? Couldn't that have easily happened??

I think Kiffin is a pretty good coach and has a lot of upside, but these high-rising stars who haven't done enough on their way up often end up crashing and burning. It's not like an Urban Meyer situation. Urban rose through the ranks quickly too, but he won BIG at the places he went.

3) The cocky, "I'm the man, let me tell you why" attitude -- You know who he reminds me a little bit of?? Ryan Leaf. When I see him speak, that's who he reminds me of at times. Just an extremely immature guy with no self-control. He's got that same defensive "I'm not dumb, I swear!" attitude at all times, and he feels the need to brag about his "accomplishments" every time he opens his mouth.

Kiffin has a serious complex. He acted like they should be building a statue of him on the Tennessee campus (only one arrest!) uring his USC press conference. I think he did a nice job, but there's no need to wear out your back from patting yourself when you spent one year there and half of your big second recruiting class bailed as soon as you left. He left UT in a bad spot.

That type of attitude can be appealing at the start, but what happens if he goes 7-5 in his first year and loses to ND and UCLA?? He's going to face major questions about his competence. Can he handle all that or will he completely fold?? He's never faced the type of adversity that he will face at SC.

3) I think an interesting scenario with Kiffin is going to be if he does win, is he going to leave for another job? Is the USC job truly his dream job like he claims?? I think the conventional wisdom about Kiffin now is that he's a serial job jumper and that will probably stick with him for awhile. Much like what people say about Nick Saban now (which really seems like a bogus charge against Saban since every career move he's made is understandable--MSU to LSU to the NFL--and then back to Bama when he didn't like the NFL.)

Kiffin may decide that he's going to the NFL in 5-10 years if he wins at USC. That's where his dad spent most of his time, and maybe he feels like the top of the coaching profession is in the League. But maybe he really considers USC the pinnacle and his so-called "dream job." When you hear all these stories about Kiffin dressing up the Tennessee football facilities with all this Reggie Bush stuff, you get the feeling that he never really left that USC world. For Kiffin, maybe he has reached the top in his eyes.

2) One final thought. Ya know what's great about this whole Kiffin thing?? ESPN and everyone in the mainstream media is KILLING Kiffin and USC over this. Just destroying them!! People haven't been this angry about anything college football-related since Tyrone Willingham got fired. The mainstream media types feel like Kiffin is a cheater who betrayed his players at Tennessee. Now that this reputation is out there for Kiffin, he'll never be able to get out from under it. It's like what we had with Weis. Once the media decided they didn't like Weis for being arrogant, he was done. Everyone was openly rooting against him.

The media is rooting for Kiffin to fail. They've made up their minds that he's a bad guy and an antagonist, and they're going to pounce on everything he says and does from here on out. That's bad mojo for a program.

This is a good thing for ND in my eyes. USC has become like the Yankees now. The Evil Empire. This takes some of the heat off ND for a change. People might even be pulling for ND to beat them next year. That can't hurt in Kelly's first year. Kelly has embraced the media since the day he was hired at ND, and I think those relationships that he built will pay off down the road.

The other contrast between Kelly and Kiffin that stands out to me is that Kelly is all about THE TEAM. Everything in his approach in recruiting and conditioning and winning is about the team, the team, the team. Kiffin is all about flash and hype and substance and sizzle. You never hear him talking about winning. He talks about recruiting and himself and everything but the team. You can recruit all you want, but at the end of the day, it comes down to winning. Kelly should really emphasize that distinction on the recruiting trail.

And Kelly can make a legitimate argument that you'll get better coaching at ND. With Pete Carroll, it's not like we could make the argument of "come to Notre Dame because you're going to get better coaching" than Pete Carroll, who is one of the best college coaches of all time. But now, Kelly can make that argument of "You want to play for Lane Kiffin?? A guy who is barely out of the womb as a coach who is just a figurehead at USC and will probably collapse as soon as his staff implodes??" Kelly has a track record of winning that he can sell to players. Kiffin has a Ty Willingham type record.

Kelly can also play the loyalty card. I think Kelly truly is at his dream job at ND. This is the pinnacle for Kelly. He's not going to the NFL someday. He's a college coach. With Kiffin, we have no idea what his plans are. If he has success, he might run off to the Chargers or something. Kelly should be telling every top recruit that Kiffin is either going to flame out in three years or head to the League if he does have success.

It's certainly going to be fascinating. I was initially very impressed with the hire and felt that the USC machine would keep on rolling along. Now, I'm a little more cautious as I hear more about Kiffin and contemplate this hire. I think he has a lot better chance of succeeding than a lot of pundits seem to think, but I'm just smelling a lot of Matt Doherty parallels and that's a bad sign if you're USC. I wouldn't be shocked by him succeeding or failing.

Can't wait to see how USC looks in their first few games. If they come out of the gate really slow, it is going to be really interesting out there.

1) Final Thought on Tennessee and Kiffin -- Of all the damaging things that Kiffin did to Tennessee by bouncing after one year, I think the most damaging thing he did is to the Tennessee brand. Kiffin basically marginalized the Tennessee job with this move and viewed Tennessee as a steppingstone job. I mean, this is Tennessee!! This is the SEC!! I always thought of Tennessee as a marquee, destination type job. You got Neyland Stadium and Rocky Top and Peyton Manning and great fans and all kinds of tradition. Tennessee has won a title in the last 15 years. You can win the SEC at a place like Tennessee. It's not the Florida job in terms of in-state talent, but Tennessee is a big time program that has done major things in college football long before Lane Kiffin got there.

And yet Kiffin has basically turned Tennessee into Kentucky South in terms of perception with this move. The stories are coming out about how he ran the program at Tennessee, and it sounds like just treated the place like it couldn't hold a candle to USC. He didn't embrace the UT traditions, he put up USC posters everywhere, and basically treated Tennessee like it was this mid-major program that needed his cache to give them some much needed prestige. He went 7-6 there. It's not like he won the SEC or something. He acted like he was the greatest thing ever to happen to UT football and that they should be thanking him for giving them such a great one year run. It's not like he was Brian Kelly going 12-0 at a place like UC. Tennessee football is far bigger than Lane Kiffin, but Kiffin presented himself as above that program.

Tennessee's brand is tarnished. They really need to make a big hire here to restore the brand name of Tennessee football. You don't want that perception of Tennessee as a steppingstone to linger at all.

Weekend Update: Pete Carroll leaves USC. What's next for USC and what does it mean for Notre Dame?? Plus, thoughts on the Brian Kelly and the NFL.

4) So in the span of a month, we have a coaching change at Notre Dame, Urban Meyer retiring followed by unretiring, and now a legendary USC coach is headed to the NFL. Enjoying that coaching carousel, yet?? Wow.

This story seems like it needs to be approached from three different perspectives:

1) The USC perspective -- I can't believe how cavalier USC fans are about seeking closure to the Pete Carroll era almost as if they are relieved for it to be over. Look at the guy's record! They may never see anything like this again.

2001 USC 6–6 5–3 5th L Las Vegas
2002 USC 11–2 7–1 T–1st W Orange
2003 USC 12–1 7–1 1st W Rose
2004 USC 13–0 8–0 1st W Orange
2005 USC 12–1 8–0 1st L Rose
2006 USC 11–2 7–2 T–1st W Rose
2007 USC 11–2 7–2 T–1st W Rose
2008 USC 12–1 8–1 1st W Rose
2009 USC 9–4 5–4 T–5th W Emerald

Pete Carroll never had below 11 wins for seven consecutive years. Not only that, but Carroll is a freak on the recruiting trail. Their class this year AVERAGES four stars. AVERAGES!! Ridiculous. And they are content to run him off for one bad year?? My god, standards are high at USC. I still remember hearing Petros Papadakis complaining about how "poor" USC played at Notre Dame this year even though they won the game! Any win at Notre Dame Stadium is a big win (I know, I know, UConn and Syracuse and Navy beat us there in the last two years. We stink....blah blah blah). Heck, we gave a standing ovation to the team after the game for even being close to USC!! If we had actually won the game, there probably would be a statue of Charlie Weis on campus.

Anyway, back to Carroll. I know USC will still be an attractive job (perhaps less attractive in the short term with the loss of some scholarships), but it will be hard to replicate what they had in Pete Carroll. You couldn't ask for a better fit for that program than Carroll. Mr. Hollywood, high-energy, pro style offense and aggressive pro style 4-3 defense, NFL factory, big time assistants, culture of competition. This isn't some situation where Carroll came in, recruited a bunch of studs, and rolled the balls out. They played aggressive, attacking football that was a perfect fit for the type of talent that they brought in.

Who is out there that can match what Carroll was able to accomplish?? More importantly, who wants to follow Pete Carroll at USC?? And if sanctions are coming, is that job going to be poison for a few years until they dig themselves out from under a hole?? It's going to be hard to convince a coach to come in, deal with a loss of scholarships and other recruiting restrictions, and also follow in the footsteps of Pete Carroll. If you go 9-3, that's a bad year at USC these days.

A guy like Jack Del Rio might be interested in a change of scenery, but we have no idea what he would be like as a college coach. He could be another Carroll, but could also easily be another Al Groh. He might bring a more disciplined approach, but would he bring the glamour and recruiting cache to keep the depth chart loaded with five stars?? Then again, if he brought in Norm Chow and Ed Orgeron with him, USC might not miss a beat on the field or the recruiting trail.

How about this scenario?? Jack Del Rio comes to USC, and Urban Meyer takes the Jacksonville Jaguars job. And then the Jags draft Tebow in the first round (as rumored) to reunite him with Urban Meyer in this hybrid spread option/Wildcat offense? Sure, it sounds crazy, but isn't that at least plausible?? Urban might actually prefer the NFL where he can just be a football man and not have to deal with all the other stuff.

The other tricky thing for USC is that even though they are a football power without question, it's more of a fair-weather program that can easily lose support at the first sign of trouble. This isn't like a Notre Dame where we are going to put 80,000 in the stands no matter what (ok, not every game and games like Duke and UConn were not exactly full other than the diehards who will show up in November no matter who we are playing...you know who you are!). Case in point, I was blown away watching that USC-Arizona game a couple months ago in a half-empty LA Colosseum. One down year, and everyone immediately fled. USC is probably the biggest bandwagon program in the country. It's Los Angeles, where there are a million things to do besides watch mediocre college football. People are with them win or win. If they suddenly start cranking out 7-5/8-4 type seasons, recruits will not be impressed to see half the Colisseum tarped off to cover up the empty seats. Any type of transition period for the new coach that results in a few "down" years could really derail that program.

If I was USC, I would be looking for a guy who isn't afraid of sanctions, isn't afraid of a building project, and isn't afraid of following Pete Carroll. Yup, you guessed it. James Joseph Harbaugh. That's the guy I would talk to first. He's a dynamic recruiter, has the ego and guts to coach at a place like USC, he has the NFL pedigree that recruits will like, and he knows how to build a tough, physical team that plays a pro style offense. He's a loose cannon for sure, but USC sort of needs a loose cannon. Hiring some straight edge is not the right fit at a place like USC. They need a superego type who is a little reckless but also fearless.

Harbaugh would be a beast at USC. I know he's probably NFL bound (how could an NFL team with an open gig not be pursuing him right now considering what his brother has done with the Baltimore Ravens??), but I'd still be reaching out to him. Then again, USC might not be interested in another guy who is going to be rumored for every NFL job out there.

Biggest risk for USC is to hire a predictable, low ceiling guy who wouldn't be able to continue the Hollywood glamour of the program. A Mike Riley type. You could pencil them in for 9-3 every year with less dynamic recruiting.

The Chris Peterson/Whittingham/Patterson type names will probably pop up as well, but I think that's a huge risk to hire any of those guys. USC needs to make sure they hire a guy who has the personality to handle the huge media spotlight. I can't help but feel that a guy like Patterson would be overwhelmed by the USC job and all that comes with it.

Also seems to be some Norm Chow rumors floating around there. How about that?? Seems like there are two camps on him. Some think that he'd be an outstanding head coach at USC since he understands the USC culture. If he's not big on recruiting, he could hire some young gun recruiters to get out there and hit the trail. Personally, I think that would be a massive risk. If he is truly head coach material, why has Norm Chow not been hired as a head coach already?? It's not like he isn't a well-known name in the sport. You figure someone would have hired him already. Could USC really run the risk of hiring Chow as a first time head coach??

Certainly going to be an interesting coaching search. How great are coaching searches?? They are always entertaining. Very curious to see who they end up getting. And if it ends up being Herm Edwards, all I can say is that there is a god. That would be the highest of high comedy.

2) Seattle perspective -- I think this whole thing is fascinating from a Seattle perspective. Could you imagine being a Seattle Seahawks fan right now?? How depressing would that be??? You are spending $7 million a year on freaking Pete Carroll to come in with all his college assistants to the big show in the NFL?? Does anyone really think this is going to work out well for Seattle?? To me, it looks like they just locked themselves into mediocrity (if not worse) for the next 5 years.

What exactly is it that Paul Allen sees in Pete Carroll that would make him want to hand that guy $7 million a year?? Because he's just so darn cool and handsome that it would be impossible for him not to win in the NFL (never mind that he's already been unsuccessful TWICE as an NFL head coach)??? Does Paul Allen not realize that you can't just recruit your way to success in the NFL?? If Pete Carroll hasn't been involved in the NFL in almost a decade, what makes anyone think that he's going to really have a great feel for player personnel??

Plus, he's a college coach!! That rah-rah stuff isn't going to get anywhere in the League, and there's no "culture of competion." Jobs are guaranteed by money in the League. You don't show up to training camp with a bunch of starting jobs on the line. That's the job of your personnel department in the offseason.

Think about all the college coaches who have been busts in the last decade in the NFL: Bobby Petrino, Butch Davis, Steve Spurrier, Nick Saban, Mike Riley, Dennis Erickson. The only straight to the pros guy that I even remember working out was Jimmy Johnson, and that's one guy out of about 20 who have failed.

Of all the guys to spend $7 million a year on, I can't understand why Pete Carroll would be your man. I'd rather take that dough and hire a VP of Operations who can bring in a good GM and a good coach and go about building a quality organization. By bringing in Pete Carroll without a GM, Seattle is just setting themselves up for a dysfunctional organization with parties that are not on the same page. I will be shocked if Pete Carroll outlasts his five year deal.

3) Notre Dame perspective -- Wouldn't be a Notre Dame blog if we didn't at least address this from a Notre Dame perspective. In the short term, the timing of this whole thing could not possibly be working out any better for us. The uncertainty at USC suddenly leaves a gaping hole on the national recruiting scene, and it sounds like Kelly is working overtime to make a big push to land Prater and some of these USC commits.

As strange as this sounds, ND is suddenly one of the more stable options on the national recruiting scene. We can point to Kelly and say that we have something in place for at least the next 5 years or so. At least you would know who your coach is going to be. At USC or Florida, there's so much up in the air right now. Not that it seems to be slowing down Florida. Elam and Shariff Floyd in one week?? Good lord. Sounds like Shariff Floyd was the best player on the field all week at the Army All-American camp. Another DT shows up in Gainesville. Embarrassment of riches down there.

Another positive in the short term is that we might be able to finally get that monkey off our back and get a win over USC and start to edge up closer to them in terms of credibility. The biggest thing that ND needs in the next couple years is a big time win or two to get some national respect back. The national opinion of our program is that we are complete frauds playing watered-down schedules and that we can't beat any good teams. And to be honest, I can't really dispute that right now. We need to beat a USC or get a quality win in a bowl game to get some of the critics off our back.

I keep looking at 2011 as the year for Kelly to make his move if he wants to get us back to the elite. We've got USC at home, and the rest of the schedule is mediocre. With Crist in his second year in the program, we can make some noise. Beat USC at home in 2011, and suddenly the energy in the rivalry could start swinging our way.

While the short term benefit of a USC program in transition is huge, what does this mean long term for our schedule strength?? We are essentially counting on USC to be an anchor of all our future schedules since they are one of only two "heavyweights" on our schedules going forward. Even though people have ripped our schedules the last couple years, we could at least point to USC and say that a win over them would prove our legitimacy if we were actually in the hunt for a national title (not that we've been close or anything but hypothetically speaking). But what if USC starts churning out 8-4 type seasons?? Where are our quality wins going to come from, especially if Michigan remains dysfunctional?? Would we just go through season after season without playing one ranked opponent?? At what point would we be relegated to the mid-major pile if teams like USC and Michigan don't hold up as quality opponents?? We are never going to get a ton of credit for beating the MSUs, Purdues, Stanfords, and BCs of the world even if those teams are having good years. Since we don't play in a conference and don't have a conference championship game, we are going to need to be able to point to some quality wins if we want to be taken seriously for the national championship.

I realize all that is getting ahead of myself since (a) USC may very well remain excellent and (b) we have no idea if we will even be in position to be having this national championship picture discussion. But it's something to be considering. This is why I always think it's a good idea for ND to be playing 3 "heavyweights" and maybe even one other unique home and home (UNC, Georgia Tech, Washington, etc) every single year to ensure that we have enough quality opponents on the schedule. If USC and Michigan are slumping, a marquee game with a Tennessee/LSU and someone like Missouri or UNC in a home and home would keep our schedule strong and give us more opportunities for quality wins.

When was the last time we had a really good quality win?? Penn State in 2006?? Tennessee in 2004 would be another one. We just haven't done that enough in recent years, and the lack of opportunities for quality wins on the schedule has been part of the problem. Beating Purdue and Sparty and BC is not going to get us any credit.

3) Speaking of Brian Kelly, I thought the recent interview he did with Bruce Feldman was fascinating stuff. Very revealing quote here:

Q: Looking at your team now and having been around for a couple of weeks, you've had a chance to make some assessments. What did you notice that made you think some things needed to be changed in terms of accountability or discipline?

I sense a bit of entitlement that needs to be rectified. I think a genuine respect for what you have and how it's being presented to you is the opposite end of entitlement and I need to move this program towards that end.

Say what you want about Brian Kelly and whether he can succeed at ND, but EVERYTHING that he has said thus far seems to be right on point with what has ailed this program in the last fifteen years. Think about the biggest issues that we have complained about for years.

1) Overrated recruits -- Too much emphasis on just looking at recruiting stars instead of finding the right kind of guys. I know it's cliche, but that RKG stuff is not just a bunch of smoke. I think Kelly will transform the recruiting model at ND from just collecting stars to more of a targeted approach. His categorization of "skill", "big skill", and "power" was the second most interesting thing I've read about recruiting out of an ND person in the last ten years (the most interesting being Vinny Cerrato's interview with B&G Illustrated on recruiting during the Holtz era.

Both these guys are basically saying the same thing, especially with the "big skill" guys. These "big skill" athletes are the utility guys who can come in and project to all sorts of places on the field. Maybe they played linebacker in high school, but they could be anything from a defensive end to an offensive tackle by the time they get into the weight program and beef up those big frames. Kelly and Cerrato want big-framed athletes playing EVERY position, including line positions. They don't just recruit o-linemen just because they played o-line in high school. They'd rather take a 6'5, 215 guy with speed and great athleticism and turn that guy into a defensive end or even an offensive tackle.

Kelly understand this concept just like Cerrato and Holtz did. Is it a coincidence that both these guys have been successful college coaches?? No. Kelly understands college personnel and what to look for and how to project guys into certain positions. He can take a look at a safety in high school and think about him as an outside linebacker someday. Or a running back in high school who turns into a superstar safety.

I think we will see a SUBSTANTIALLY better approach to recruiting under Kelly. He will find true "power" guys to play the lines (might recruit more d-linemen and convert them to offense), and he is going to find "big skill" guys to play on the edges.

The one thing we have recruited well through the years has been true "skill" guys like WRs and QBs and TEs. Combine our traditionally strong "skill" recruiting with better "big skill" and "power" guys, and we could really have something.

2) Soft program/Entitlement mentality-- The "Brooks Brothers" label that some folks have put on this program has resulted in soft teams that are out of shape and get pushed around up front. Kelly has talked at length about changing that culture at ND and producing tougher teams that don't wilt in the fourth quarter. Seems like that is a top priority for him when you read this quote in the Feldman interview:

"As I spend more time with the University of Notre Dame, some of our issues are self-inflicted wounds. So we need to spend time on the internal operation. But with the external, we gotta still recruit now, we've gotta carry the class. Charlie [Weis] did a very good job of putting together what I consider a class of great players and great young men that we have to reel in. It's not as pressing as some of the internal needs of the program."

Kelly showed up at ND and saw that there were massive internal problems. What a shocker!! I'm stunned that this program has been a mess from the inside out for all these years. I expect "Camp Kelly" to be telling this offseason, and we'll probably hear stories about guys wanting out of this program. Fine by me.

This whole "entitlement mentality" thing goes beyond the players. It applies to the fans as well. I'll be the first to admit that I point to our schedule before every year and talk about 11 wins and 1 loss because we're ND and we're supposed to have more talent than everybody on our schedule other than USC. And when we lose to the BCs and MSUs of the world year after year, we make excuses and proclaim that the only reason they beat us is that they are lucky to face us in a "down stretch" of our program's history.

News flash: We've been "down" for 15 years! This isn't some fad. This is our reality. We're a mediocre football program. Maybe we have a few more top end players than the Pitts and MSUs and BCs of the world, but the difference between our talent and theirs is pretty marginal when you start talking about 22 starters on the field. If we don't show up to play as a tough, disciplined team, we'll lose. We dismiss these teams, but it's time we start taking every game seriously for four quarters.

Of course, that all starts in the offseason, and I think Kelly is going to drill that home all winter. I expect to see a much more determined and focused team next fall.

I know that all our new coaches have said things in their first years that seemed to be a breath of fresh air at the time, but Kelly really seems to have a firm grip on what has been wrong with this program. He has a recruiting philosophy that matches up with what other great coaches and recruiters believe in, and he seems to understand that ND's problems go well beyond wins and losses. Behind the scenes, he is trying to change the culture at ND from a soft program to a hard-nosed program. Much like what Jim Harbaugh did at Stanford. If he can change the culture at ND, the wins will follow and it won't take all that long.

2) Some NFL thoughts as we head into the Divisional Round. Does it really get much better than the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs?? Four high-quality games on back to back days. I'm excited. Can't wait to hear Dan Dierdorf lose his mind the first time Ray Lewis makes a big play.

--Brutal loss for the Bengals on Saturday. Just completely outclassed in every way by the Jets. I drove down for the game and while I did enjoy my first NFL playoff experience (seeing the bunting and the NFL Playoff logo on the field was enough to inspire goosebumps), you could really feel the desperation in the air for Bengal fans. It was almost as if Bengal fans knew deep down that this was as good as it is going to get for this organization. When the schedule breaks right and we get the right mix of hungry, motivated guys, we might squeak out a 10-11 win season and bow out in the first round of the playoffs.

But in terms of getting to that next level, it requires an organizational commitment that just doesn't exist in Cincinnati. We aren't going to make staff changes to try to push a 10 win team to a 12-13 win team. The Bengals badly need a change in offensive philosophy. Our offense is so predictable and boring that it's sad. Every pass play is a Carson seven step drop back and out route to a WR. We do very little screen game, no Wildcat, no misdirection, very few rollouts or bootlegs or things like that. Every first down through the air just feels like we had to pull out a tooth to get it. In comparison, Sanchez didn't throw one difficult pass the entire game because his coaches gave him a ton of safe reads and interesting plays to get guys open in space.

Most likely, the Bengals will keep our offensive staff in place even though the offense has gone stale. Meanwhile, the Steelers finished only one game behind us (9-7) and are cleaning house on the offensive side of the ball. The Steelers are committed to one thing and one thing only: The Super Bowl. If anyone isn't holding up their end of the bargain toward that goal, they're gone. The Bengals will most likely retain the entire staff as a reward for going 10-6.

Unfortunately, 10-6 can easily go to 7-9 if you don't keep pushing yourself to improve. A first place schedule and a rejuvenated Steelers team next year probably will take this team down a few notches if the Bengals don't make every effort to get better in the offseason.

The other issue is Carson Palmer. He is either hurt or shaky, and neither scenario is good. Palmer did not have a good season at all, and it hurt this team on multiple occasions. It all comes down to accuracy. If you can't hit guys in the numbers or in stride, you are not going to have much of a passing game. He didn't necessarily throw a ton of backbreaking picks and the receivers were partially to blame, but Carson needs to play much better next year if this team is going to have another good year.

Overall, I enjoyed the season though. Even though I'd love to see the Bengals make a Super Bowl run, just getting to the playoffs is fun. It's fun to be invested in January and looking forward to the matchups and talking NFL playoff football. I hope I get to be a part of the show again next year.

--Is it me or did New England become too Weis-ian in the last couple years?? I was astounded at how Baltimore just shoved the Pats around on Sunday. They looked like a soft, pass-happy team that didn't want to get physical in the trenches with the Ravens. Sound familiar??

I think Belichick (and Weis on the college level) bought into this idea that the league was morphing into Arena Football Lite and that the way to build a team in the modern era was with an exclusively pass-oriented finesse offense that flung the ball around against overmatched defenses. I do agree that the NFL has become more geared to the pass, but it's still football. You still need to be physical at the point of attack, you still should have some balance, and you still need to play attacking, aggressive, physical defense. It's not a video game. If you beat up the other team at the lines, they are going to wear out and make mistakes and bog down in the red zone. The Ravens just punched New England in the mouth, and they couldn't respond.

If that game wasn't an eye-opener for Belichick to rethink his formula and get back to playing a more physical brand of football, I don't know what will. Belichick is a smart guy, and I would expect to see some changes coming in New England.

--Of the four Wildcard Weekend teams that survived, here's how I would rank them going forward as Super Bowl contenders:

1) Dallas -- I'll admit that I was not a Dallas believer at all because I perceived their talent to be overrated, but how can you not be impressed with them?? And I guess I must have missed out on them acquiring some serious talent because they have the most talented defense in the league. Spencer and Ware are devastating players, their d-line is strong, and their secondary impressed me as well. Defense in the NFL comes down to pass rushers and cornerbacks. If you are really good at those two spots, you are in really good shape. It's all about getting off the field on 3rd down and making big plays.

If I had to make a pick on a Super Bowl team out of the NFC, I think I'd go with Dallas above everyone. They run the ball, Romo is playing well, they rush the passer, they shut down the run, and they are athletic. Extremely impressed with them right now.

2) Arizona -- I'm putting the Cards at #2 just because of one man: Kurt Warner. A year ago, I would have laughed at this statement, but at this point, I don't even think there's a debate on whether he's a Hall of Famer. For my money, he's AT LEAST the 3rd best quarterback of this decade, and I'd even go as far as to say that I would go to bat for him in a Warner-Brady debate. There isn't a guy that I've ever seen who does a better job of making a quick decision and hitting EVERY receiver in stride right on the numbers. Maybe I just only seem to watch him when he's red hot, but Warner does not miss throws!! Nothing is high or late or a poor decision. He knows where he's going with it, and he puts it right on the money.

I've been trying to think about Warner's legacy as an NFL quarterback, and I think he will go down as the Godfather of the spread offense. If you had to pick one guy to run a spread where he is going to have to make a quick read and get rid of the ball accurately in less than three seconds because you only have five blockers and the pressure is coming, I think I'd go with Kurt Warner. He's the best in the game at that. Warner just kills teams over the middle with quick reads and quick throws.

Warner has played on one of the best offensive teams of the modern era (the 99-02 Rams), he played an unbelievable game in one of the all time great Super Bowls (the 09 Super Bowl), and he just threw five touchdown passes in one of the great NFL playoff games of all time (Packers-Cards). His legend is officially secured.

With Kurt Warner on fire, the Cards can beat anyone. We've all doubted these guys game after game the last couple years, and they continue to come through.

3) Baltimore -- Only reason I don't have the Ravens higher is that their defense is not as dominant as it looked last week, and I'm not sure whether Joe Flacco is ready to win two more games on the road if they really need him to come through. I just can't shake the fact that the Bengals beat these guys twice this year and pretty much had their way with them through the air even though Carson Palmer was ordinary for most of the year.

Baltimore has some things going for them though: Ray Rice and John Harbaugh. With their running game, they can hang around. And Harbaugh seems to be a master at having his team ready to play. But they are going to have a serious challenge in Indy going up against the Colts' passing game. They have to find ways to get pressure on Manning.

4) Jets -- The Jets probably won't win in San Diego, but I sort of like their matchup. I watched the Bengals very nearly win in San Diego about a month ago, so I at least have a sense for what it would take to beat the Chargers. They LOVE throwing the deep ball. They throw a bomb like once every four downs. It's unreal. And once they spread things out, they hit you underneath with screens and over the middle stuff to Antonio Gates. It's a pretty devastating combination.

Defensively, they're good, but not scary good. The Bengals moved it on the Chargers. The Jets can run the ball on San Diego. Heck, the Jets can run the ball on anyone. Nick Mangold is a monster on the interior. If they can run the ball and continue to be creative with the Wildcat and screens, it would not shock me if they scored some points in this game.

The Chargers are really good offensively, but I almost feel like the Jets have some good matchups here. Darrelle Revis can shut down Vinnie Jackson in his sleep, which might take away that deep threat. That means that the Jets just need to bunch up and neutralize Antonio Gates and the running backs in the underneath game.

I would not be surprised at all to see one of these AFC Wildcard teams advance to the AFC Championship game. My initial thought was the Ravens, but now I'm starting to get intrigued by the Jets. I love Jets +9 this week. Love it!!

My picks this week:

Dallas over Minnesota -- That Dallas front seven in Favre's face all day?? Where do I buy stock in a 4INT day for Favre?? And Dallas is built for a dome with their speed and athleticism, so they won't be as freaked out about playing in Minnesota.

Arizona over New Orleans -- Screw it, give me Kurt "Big Game" Warner. America is salivating for a Zona-Dallas NFC Championship Game.

Indy over Baltimore -- I think the Colts have been circling the wagons and expect them to come out and play well. The Ravens don't really have a "dome team" feel either. They're built like the Bengals.

Jets over San Diego -- Why not?? This will probably be wrong, but I'm going with a gut feeling.

1) Finally, I am thrilled about this Aroldis Chapman signing by the Reds. Maybe it will end up being a bust, but I like the mentality. I would rather spend $30 million on a 22 year old young gun lefthander who throws 100 mph over 4 garden-variety retread free agents any day of the week. Case in point, the Reds have handed out about $35 million over the last three years to the following guys:

Alex Gonzalez
Wily Taveras
Ramon Hernandez

And that's not to mention the $10 million or so a year that we flush down the toilet on crappy relievers like David Weathers and Mike Lincoln. The Reds probably spend $20-30 million PER YEAR on bad free agents. Why not invest $5 million a year on Chapman instead??

I realize there are concerns about Chapman, and I don't want to gloss over the fact that the Yanks and Red Sox and others feel that he needs a year or two in the minors before being ready to come up to the bigs. Maybe Chapman never ends up being more than a reliever or a back end rotation guy like Oliver Perez. If he only gives you 3-3.5 years in the bigs, you're essentially paying him almost $10 million a year for those years. And we've seen so many flamethrowers come up to the bigs and not be able to command the strike zone. If you don't have great command, you're never going to be a great major league pitcher.

But if this guy turns into the next Johan Santana, $5 million a year turns into the biggest bargain in the league for the next 6 years. You get his best years of pitching (ages 22-28) at a bargain rate. Even if he just becomes a #2-#3 type starter, that's still a good deal. The going rate for a starting pitcher these days is $10+ million.

This is the kind of risk that I'm more than willing to see the Reds take. The only way the Reds are ever going to win as a small market team is with young guns and pitching. Get as many live, young arms as possible and hope that 3-4 of them come through and form the core of a winning rotation. With Cueto, Bailey (came on strong last year), Volquez, Chapman, and Mike Leake (first round pick), we have 5 promising young pitchers. I won't assume that all five of them will live up to the hype, but I'd happily settle for three. If a few of them mature and pan out, we can at least be competitive. That's more than I can say about the last 10 years. Move the fences at GABP as far back as they can go and win with pitching and defense and young guns.

Nice move. Now get rid of Dusty and bring in someone who can develop him.

The Madness of Mike Brey

Apologies for the forthcoming doomsday prognosis, but I have to get this off my chest.

The basketball program under Mike Brey has been treading water for years now. Four NIT appearances in the last six seasons has been a tough pill to swallow and all signs point to a 2nd consecutive trip to the stepchild of postseason basketball.

Quick aside: Does that make the CBI Tournament and the CollegeInsider.com Postseason Tournament siamese second cousins? Be honest, did you know there was not one, but two fledgling craptastic tournaments rewarding mediocrity? And one of them has a best-of-three finals playoff. Who knew?! Unfortunately, college basketball is piggybacking on the bloated football bowl system that hasn't met a sponsor it doesn't like. No fans (save the students of School X who win the aformentioned over-indulgent tournament) are clamoring for the all-you-can-play buffet of post-season games, as argued a year ago on these pages. Whoa, this tangent is getting away from me - back to Brey.

Brey's litany of shortcomings have been transparent over his tenure. A quick recap:

I. Little emphasis on team defense. This Achilles heel concedes too many easy buckets and is unable to force stops when needed.

II. The over reliance on long-range shooting is an offensive crutch. Matt Carroll beget Colin Falls, who beget Kyle McAlarney, who warmed the #2 guard spot for current semi-athletic caucasian gunner, Ben Hansbrough. Brey's high-scoring offense caters to this perimeter attack which has proven unreliable down the stretch and in the postseason.

III. Way too much frosting on the cupcake non-conference scheduling leads to a watered-down RPI that makes every bubble watch squeamish come March.

IV. Questionable timeout habits that bite us in the ass more than they should.

V. Poor execution with out-of-bounds plays. How many times has the under the basket inbounds play led to nothing but chucking it to the safety valve in the back court? And inbounding against the press is a constant adventure, often times because the wrong person handles the inbounds duties. I'm nit-picking, but there's an example of this every other game.

VI. Awful substitution patterns which I'll dive into in greater length below. Suffice it to say, this continues to be the most maddening quality of Brey-ball.

In his defense, Mike Brey the human being is off the charts great. My personal interactions with the man have always impressed me at how genuinely nice a person he is. He means well and cares about his players. He also makes a helluva spokesperson for home spas (Much to my chagrin, I couldn't find footage of Brey's shining moment in a home spa commercial spot. The mock gets shed in favor of a bathrobe as he delivers the memorable catch phrase "It's a dunk." I'm confident this will turn up on cyber space some day. If anyone is aware of its whereabouts, please inform).

All good guy points aside, Mike Brey holds the reins to a major basketball program in the toughest conference, which requires many more attributes than I just described. Currently, the team stands at 13-3, enjoying a pleasant 2-1 start in conference play. Don't let that record fool you. The wins over any team with a pulse include St. Louis (which hasn't been the same since Larry Hughes bolted early and H Waldman graduated), UCLA (floundering doesn't begin to describe the season unfolding in Westwood), Providence and South Florida (both bottom feeders of the BEast). With the meat of the conference slate beginning this weekend, I envision only 6 more victories, barring any major surprises. Thanks to a difficult 5-game stretch to finish the season, the probability of the Irish riding a wave of momentum into the BEast tournament is slim to none.

Which brings me to Brey's stubborn substitution patterns. The Mock's philosophy relies on his starters playing the lion's share of minutes with a small rotation of bench players sprinkled in as change of pace guys and matchup specialists. This has been Mike Brey's calling card since he came to South Bend. Wear your starters down over the course of 30+ games so their legs are gelatinous pudding when you need them most. Under-utilize your bench (especially freshmen not named Chris Thomas) early in the season against the creampuff non-conference teams you selected so you have little confidence to use them come conference time. Recruit too many "rough-around-the-edges" players that can't possibly mature without getting game time minutes, thus crippling the team with limited depth despite competing in the deepest conference in the country. Rinse, wash, repeat. It's a maddening cycle of roster mismanagement.

Some proof of Brey's reluctance to find out how his freshmen can contribute can be crystallized with these five examples:

1. Rick Cornett: 12 games played as a freshman, 5.1 minutes per game. Cornett was a raw big man with shaky offensive skills, but crashed the boards, hustled and played physical (sound like something this team could use?). I never understood why Brey never gave him a fair shake, even after he was named a senior captain. He's the type of player who Tom Izzo or Jim Calhoun would work in for meaningful energy minutes and have a few games where he'd dominate for stretches. The Chris Gatling impersonation only endeared him more to the fans.

2. Zach Hillesland: 13 games, 2.2 minutes. Everyone's favorite NYTimes blogger was a completely unknown commodity his first year. Granted Hillesland likely wasn't suited physically for BEast competition, but he turned into a versatile playmaker, played sound defense and was a matchup problem. Was he that ill-prepared to do anything of merit his freshman year? Mind you, the 2005-2006 team featured Colin Falls for 35 minutes a night. You can't convince me Zach wasn't a better option defensively while giving Falls and Russ Carter some needed rest. Alas, this was an NIT bound team with NCAA talent.

3. Robert Kurz: 14 games, 4.7 minutes. Brey gets praised for unearthing a diamond in the rough recruit and making an NBA-talent out of Kurz. My question is how many NBA-caliber players struggle to find the court their freshman year? I don't doubt that Kurz worked like mad to become the player he is today, but again, you can't convince me that somebody with his talent and innate ability didn't deserve to share minutes with Jordan Cornette, Dennis "Transfer Disaster" Latimore and Torin "The Timid" Francis. I refuse to believe it. Use the bench that you recruited. It's there for a reason. Pretty sure it wouldn't have ruined the season to try.

4. Russell Carter: 11 games, 2.1 minutes. Another case of unnecessarily burying talent. Carter hardly sniffed the court his first two seasons (both NIT teams, so using him couldn't have hurt the team's "success"). Russ would become the most dynamic player on the team his senior year, yet I can't help but wonder if we could have enjoyed two years of his explosive play.

5. Tom Timmermans: 16 games, 2.5 minutes. You're Mike Brey. You play in the Big East, the most bruising conference with loads of talented big bodies to contest with. You import a talented 6'11'' European who possesses more ball skills than most uncoordinated bigs. You play him sparingly his first two seasons, opting to run your horses into the ground, and in the process, killing your best opportunity for a memorable NCAA run. Why, why, WHY? The man has 1,033 nicknames for a reason. He's versatile, a huge fan favorite, and five fouls to burn with his high-octane Dutch flair for the game. Did I mention the man has 1,033 nicknames?

It's no secret the most successful teams feature a wealth of depth waiting to be unleashed on the court, providing a psychological and physical boost to the team. The best programs are bubbling over with backups at every position to sub when someone needs a breather or is slumping. Try convincing the man that played Chris Quinn 40.0 minutes a game (still astounding even as I write that) in 2005-2006 that perhaps the team's best interests would be better served with keeping the team's best player somewhat fresh down the stretch. As it was, the Irish lost in 2OT in the 2nd round of the NIT as Quinn played 50 minutes. Guess who missed the potential go-ahead free throw with 16 seconds?

To see where Brey's tendencies fall compared to his counterparts, I researched the average minutes played for the top 27 teams this year, as well as every Big East roster. I was curious to find how many players averaged 30+ minutes a game (the fresh factor over a season), how many players averaged 15+ minutes (the depth of a meaningful rotation) and how many players averaged 6+ minutes (translation: letting freshmen and oft-used players work up a sweat and see how they look). The numbers speak for themselves.

Top 10	Number	of players	playing
Teams	30+ min.	15+ min.	6+ min.
Kansas	1	7	11
Texas	0	10	11
Kentucky	2	7	10
Purdue	0	7	10
Duke	3	7	9
Villanova	0	9	11
Syracuse	1	7	10
WVU	3	6	11
UNC	1	7	12
MSU	1	7	10

Pretty good snapshot of the depth that exists on the best teams and the substitution philosophy of these coaches, all among the best in the business. I was most surprised to find that 70% use 0-1 players for big-time minutes. Interesting that only Coach K uses single digit players on a regular basis. Since Brey learned at his knee, maybe that begins to explain the Mock's stubbornness. Ready to see how Notre Dame's numbers match up? How about a quick look at the next 17 ranked teams (AP and Coaches differed on a couple teams) to drive the point home further.

Top 25	Number	of players	playing
Teams	30+ min.	15+ min.	6+ min.
Kansas St.	1	5	12
Georgetown	4	6	7
UConn	4	5	9
Mississippi	2	8	10
New Mexico	2	8	10
Tennessee	0	8	11
Wisconsin	2	7	9
FSU	0	8	11
Gonzaga	2	5	10
Ga. Tech	0	7	11
Temple	4	6	8
Texas Tech	2	7	10
Pittsburgh	2	9	11
Washington	2	6	11
BYU	1	6	10
Clemson	0	6	11
Butler	2	7	8

The numbers that jump out here are 82% of teams use 0-2 players more than 30 minutes a game, the average size of a meaningful rotation is 7 players and only 6 teams out of 27 use single digit contributors. Ready for ND's numbers now?

	Number	of players	playing
Team	30+ min.	15+ min.	6+ min.
Notre Dame	3	6	7

The odds are stacked against Brey succeeding this season and beyond with this lack of depth and refusal to find minutes for freshmen. I fear Jack Cooley, Joey Brooks and Mike Broghammer are following in the footsteps of those late bloomers before them. Frankly, I don't understand the rationale. In this era of college basketball, freshmen are expected to make an impact. John Wall is the current poster child for one-and-dones, but there are bountiful freshmen playing important roles for teams that will be making trips to the Sweet 16. Why Mike Brey wants to buck the trend and sit on the talent he has is beyond me. If that's the best he can recruit, then that's a whole 'nother story.

The scary thing is, I'm afraid Brey doesn't realize what he's doing. He actually indicts himself after the UConn loss,

"He [bench player Charles Okwandu] did shock us a little bit...They can run a lot of bodies at you like that and wear you down, and then he happened to really deliver."

No sh*t! That's the beauty of a deep bench. You wear the other team down with fresh bodies and any given day you can find different ways a player can contribute. Is it that novel of a concept to make it more difficult for the opposing coach to game plan for all the guys who can impact the outcome of the game? When you use 6-7 guys, there aren't a whole lot of variations you can mix things up with.

And yet, here we are in year 10 and the formula is still in full effect with no end in sight. I'm not saying it prohibits the Irish from being successful. It just makes the mountain much steeper to climb. And what's the ultimate ceiling with this coaching philosophy? Is the Sweet 16 every blue moon the best we can expect? How many trips to the NIT is enough? How much squandered talent will remain stashed on the bench, this year and years to come? There are better ways to run a program, but it's tough to teach an old dog new tricks.

Stock Report: Thoughts on the Big Ten, Nebraska, Indiana, Les Miles, Terrelle Pryor, Ohio State, Thad Matta, and the Pac 10's bowl troubles this year

Time for a stock report to assess what we've seen in the last week or so in sports.

Stock Up:

Pitt Panthers basketball-- Back to back wins at Syracuse and Cincy for Pitt and now sitting atop the Big East at 3-0. Wasn't this supposed to be a rebuilding year?? Man, color me impressed. I watched them last night against Cincy, and it's like they haven't missed a beat. They are the same team-oriented, tough as nails team that they've always been.

This Ashton Gibbs guy has turned himself into one heckuva player. I went back and looked his recruiting bio up just out of curiosity. Has to be a 5 star, right?? I mean, we've all heard so many excuses from ND fans about how Brey is hamstrung because he can't attract five stars, so Gibbs must be one of those elite guys, right?? Nope. 3 star recruit out of Jersey. He had an offer from Georgetown, but the rest of his "cohort" was schools like Rutgers and Seton Hall.

This is where Pitt excels. They find these underrated 3 star types who are maybe a little undersized or not as athletic or whatever, but they know how to play the game and can play team basketball.

Most underrated program in the country by far. Jamie Dixon continues to do an outstanding job. Pitt will be a major factor in the Big East yet again.

The Midwestern brand of football! - I'll divide this into 3 categories after a spectacular weekend for the Midwest in college football.

1) Nebraska -- Husker Nation, I apologize. I will admit that I wrote a few obituaries on this blog about Nebraska's future as a major power in college football and questioned whether they had the talent base to continue the great tradition of Husker football. With demographics working against them, it seemed like Nebraska football had become marginalized in the Big 12 to some degree.

I'm still not sure what their ceiling is, but I don't think they could have made a better impression on the nation than they did in the Holiday Bowl. WOW. Couldn't have looked more dominant. Just classic Husker football with a physical, aggressive defense that shoved around Arizona like rag dolls. Great to see Nebraska playing physical football again. Between the Holiday Bowl and that strong performance against Texas in the Big 12 championship game, I think people are buying in again on the Huskers in a big way.

All starts with Bo Pelini. Wherever this guy has been, he has produced physical, attacking defenses. Tom Osborne might have saved Nebraska football with that hire. Just goes to show what happens when you have an A.D. who knows football. ND, are you listening?? Tom Osborne doesn't need to read a Pat Forde column or study the Sagarin ratings to know who a good coach is. He can see it with his two eyeballs.

Nebraska has 17 starters coming back next year. They were much better offensively in the bowl game, so I expect that momentum to continue going into next year with 10 offensive starters back. For my money, even though Texas reloads every year, Nebraska is the team to beat in the Big 12 next year.

Mark your calendars: October 16, 2010. Texas at Nebraska. WOW. The Husker Nation will be gearing up for that one all year.

2) The Big Ten -- Maybe the overall numbers aren't there in terms of a bowl record (especially if Iowa loses to Georgia Tech), but the statement was made in the three big games for the Big Ten against the "speed" teams of the south and west.

Wisconsin beats Miami (FL)
Penn State beats LSU
Ohio State beats Oregon

Even Northwestern put up a good showing against Auburn. Amazing how quickly the image of a league can change overnight. Suddenly, the perception of the slow, stodgy Big Ten turned into the powerful, physical brand of football that shoved around these "soft" ACC and Pac 10 teams. It just goes to show that winning the games at the line of scrimmage is still what matters at the end of the day in college football. Speed doesn't mean anything if your d-linemen are getting blown backwards, and high-powered offenses aren't as dangerous if the o-line can't move defenders in the direction they want them to go. If you win the line of scrimmage, you put yourself in position to win the game.

The other thing is matchups. In past years, the Big Ten representative would go out to the Rose Bowl and lose to these juggernaut USC teams that were just as physical but also more explosive. And then you'd have OSU in a bowl game with a big time SEC team or Texas. Suddenly, you're 0-2 in the big bowl games. All that trickled down to the other bowls and created bad matchups (i.e. MSU in the Cap One bowl last year against a quality Georgia team). This year, OSU gets a smaller Oregon team, and the Big Ten was fortunate to have a big, physical team like Penn State in the Capital One Bowl.

The SEC is still the king pin without question. It's not even close. You have the superpowers at the top, and the depth in the league is remarkable. Case in point, they matched up their 7th/8th best team (Auburn) against the 5th best team in the Big Ten (Northwestern) and still got a win.

But I think the Big Ten has really elevated itself in this bowl season. They can go into the offseason feeling like they are back in the mix for that 2nd best conference moniker going into next year. I expect the preseason polls to reflect that with lofty rankings for Ohio State, Iowa, Penn State, and Wisconsin. Amazing how one good bowl season can change your fortunes overnight. If an OSU or Iowa or Penn State runs the table next year, they are going to be taken more seriously as a participant in a title game than they were this year. The mere mention of Iowa in the title game this year drew borderline outrage (me included). But next year, the Big Ten teams might get a little more love.

3) Ohio State -- Just an enormous win for an Ohio State program that was really starting to wonder where they stood in the national picture and whether that big win over a southern/western school would ever come again. The entire collective spirit of this city has picked up since that win over Oregon. I will be fatigued by the Buckeye offseason hype by about mid-May, but I can certainly understand the good vibes that are going on around town right now.

I had a good feeling going into the game that OSU would play well and put up a good showing. Yes, OSU has had their "big game" problems in recent years, but a big part of the reason for those problems has been that they were just playing really really good teams the last few big games. They got blown out by extremely talented Florida, LSU, and USC teams that were probably the best teams in the nation when OSU played them. Is there really that much to be ashamed about there?? Oklahoma has been soundly defeated by all three of those teams in the last decade as well. In fact, lots of teams have. Before this little malaise, Tressel had performed well in BCS bowl games and other "big games." People forget that they destroyed Kansas State in the Fiesta Bowl a few years back when KSU was getting all kinds of hype as the Big 12 champ.

So getting a favorable matchup with a good Oregon team that didn't have the same physical presence as an LSU or Florida or USC was a nice break. And credit to The Vest for having a really good game plan that threw off Oregon and got the job done. He opened up the offense, let Pryor make plays with his legs and arm, and they overplayed Masoli on defense to neutralize him. It was a great plan, and Tressel is officially back to god-like status in the city of Columbus. In this decade, Tressel is now 4-3 in BCS bowl games with a national title. Ummm, that's not all bad.

The other story of the Rose Bowl was Terrelle Pryor. What a ballgame for #2. Let the hype for 2010 begin. Amazing how much the Vince Young parallels continue to follow him now that they've both seemingly had their coming out parties in the Rose Bowl. Seems like TP is poised for a monster year in 2010 if Tressel keeps the harnesses off. He has work to do in the passing game, but his playmaking abilities are a serious weapon. How many 6'6, 240 lb guys with 4.4 speed have ever played quarterback before?? How do you stop this guy when he can seemingly run ten yards in about four strides??

The other interesting plotline in 2010 for Pryor will be his NFL future. If he has a big year in 2010, does he leave after next year even though a lot of people will wonder whether he's an NFL quarterback?? Would he even be a first round pick considering how leery scouts probably are about "athletic" Qbs after the shaky tenures of Michael Vick and Vince Young??

Going to be an enormous amount of hype for OSU next year. I'll go on record and predict that they will be preseason #2 behind Alabama, but it will be interesting to see what their defense looks like next year if they lose a few of those d-linemen to the draft. OSU's success this year came from a great defensive line that rotated 8-9 guys and controlled the line of scrimmage in just about every game they played. Will their defense be as formidable next year without all those bodies??

Indiana basketball -- Where do I pour myself a bowl of crow after IU's nice win over Michigan in their opener?? I was impressed with how they played. I'll admit that my barbs at IU last week were uninformed, and I'm ready to change my tune on them afer watching that Michigan game. Crean seems to be building a nice foundation with that team, and I think there's something to be said for finding solid 4 year kinda guys to build around. There's another coach in the Big Ten who I'd like to see doing that more often (more on that later).

Kudos to Tom Crean. I'm still not sure what his ceiling is at IU, but things aren't as bad as I thought last week after seeing the score of that loss to Loyola. They can win some ballgames in the Big Ten this year and should make a run at an NCAA birth by next year.

Kentucky basketball -- Dear god, how athletic is Kentucky? When they put it all together and get a little bit better flow from playing more games together, they are going to be scary good. Cousins is a mammoth beast inside, and Wall is sick. They are a little raw right now, but Kentucky is really fun to watch. Calipari might put Kentucky on the death penalty probation someday, but UK fans are going to enjoy the good times for now.

Florida -- Are you kidding me with this shot?? WOW. For all we know, this shot might be the difference between them making and missing the NCAA Tournament. Does this end the "miss the free throw on purpose with 2 seconds left to force a 3/4 quarter court heave" strategy that most teams employ??


Stock Down:

The Pac 10 -- Brutal performance by the Pac 10 this year. The kind of bowl season that can destroy their reputation after several years of really gaining momentum. All those "the Pac 10 is a joke" articles and posts will be coming out in full force now.

I don't consider myself to be a Pac 10 basher at all and would even go so far as to say that I thought the Pac 10 had emerged at this time last year as the second best conference in America after Oregon destroyed Oklahoma State in the Holiday Bowl and USC did their usual number on a Big Ten team.

But Arizona looked horrific in the Holiday Bowl this year, and Oregon really looked outclassed by Ohio State. That Nebraska-Arizona game was an abomination for the Pac 10. The Huskers completely abused Arizona at the line of scrimmage. By the time the Rose Bowl was over, the perception of the Pac 10 had gone from this aggressive, forward-thinking league to a bunch of soft, small teams that would wilt if you got physical with them.

Seems like the Pac 10 had a matchup problem this year like the Big Ten has had in the past. If USC had done what they normally do, they would have provided a much more formidable test physically for Ohio State. That moves Oregon down to the Holiday Bowl and Arizona into some winnable third tier bowl. USC's collapse this year put everyone else one rung too high.

The other interesting thing is how small-timey Oregon and Arizona came off in those bowl games in terms of pomp and circumstance. Stories are starting to leak out about the performance of Oregon's band at the halftime show of the Rose Bowl. At a place like the Rose Bowl with all the pageantry of that setting, you better have a big time band that can hold its own weight on that stage. Apparently Oregon's band was tiny, and performed like a high school band compared to the OSU band. Yikes. Get yourselves back to that Sun Bowl ASAP.

Same with Arizona. You had the Husker Nation out in San Diego in full force, and meanwhile Arizona had no one there outside of a few Stoops brothers (how many Stoops brothers are there by the way?).

Even though college football has changed a ton in the last 20 years and more and more talent is showing up in the south and west, there still is something to be said for those "brand name" programs like Nebraska and Ohio State that know how to do the big boy football thing. This isn't the first time either of those programs have been to the dance. They know how to put 50,000 fans in the seats or put on a big time band show. They have that 100 year kinda tradition of playing football in big time settings. Schools like Arizona and Oregon don't have that. There's a reason why these Pac 10 schools all play in 45,000 seat stadiums on some random Fox Sports affiliate.

When we have those discussions about scheduling "heavyweights" in college football, this is what ND fans who want scheduling changes mean. The big boys. The schools that can bring 50,000 fans anywhere. The schools that have 200 people in their band with songs that everyone in America knows. The schools that have won national titles. The schools that play in 80,000+ seat stadiums and play on national tv almost every week. I don't have a problem with playing TCU or somebody like that as filler in a 12 game schedule, but not in place of a Nebraska or a Texas or an Alabama or an Ohio State.

I don't care about Sagarin ratings. If I have a choice between playing an 8-4 Nebraska team or a 10-2 Utah team, give me the Huskers all day long.

Les Miles -- Brutal clock management. What else is new?? But it's more than that. Even with all that talent, The Hat has now gone 8-5 and 9-4 in back to back seasons. And they are losing 12 starters going into next year. The last remnants of the Nick Saban juggernaut are fading away.

Yup, you know what that means. LSU is going 6-6 or something like that in 2010. The warmish seat at LSU for Les Miles is officially getting hot. He better right the ship next year and get the Tigers back in the BCS hunt.

By the way, if you're a Michigan fan, aren't you dreading a scenario where Rich Rodriguez has another down year, gets fired, and Les Miles jumps ship to Michigan with a golden parachute?? How lukewarm would that reception be for Les Miles if he's coming off a 6-6 year at LSU and flees to Michigan because they are desperate to save face and hire a "Michigan Man"?? You could just pencil him in for 8-4 seasons at Michigan for the next decade. And he would be impossible to fire with his Michigan ties and insider connections. He's the closest thing they have to a "made man." Very dangerous scenario for a Michigan program that seems to be steadily losing its cache as a national program and doesn't really have a big time in-state talent base to feed itself. ND has problems of its own, but at least we still have a national brand that will probably always be there as long as we remain an independent. If Michigan loses their national branding, they become Michigan State. Or Purdue.

For what it's worth, I'd put that Miles to Michigan golden parachute scenario down at about 1:1 odds of happening. Maybe better.

The Denver Broncos -- Brutal finish for Denver and Mr. Wonder Boy, Josh McRabbitsfoot. You start out 6-0 and finish 8-8 and basically have done everything to run your two best players off (Cutler and Marshall)?? That can work if you win. But if you don't, look out.

If McDaniels flames out, at some point NFL organizations are going to have to go cold turkey on Belichick disciples. None of these guys have worked out. Not one. Weis, Mangini, Crennel, McDaniels, Haley (so far). I guess you could say Nick Saban worked out, but he had many other influences besides Belichick.

I remember reading in ESPN The Magazine that Belichick does not really keep these guys in the loop at all and gives his assistants less responsibility than probably any other head coach in the league. He's in the business of winning, not grooming other coaches to be head coaches.

Then again, the Mangenius is suddenly red hot. I think Browns fans are going to be mildly disappointed if Mangini gets fired.

Mid-major football programs -- TCU/Boise/Cincy did not do themselves any favors in terms of national perception. Couldn't have been less impressed with any of those teams on the big state.

It's going to be very interesting next year if we get an undefeated Mountain West or WAC or Big East team, and there is only one other undefeated BCS team. How could you put a Cincy type team in the title game next year against the SEC champ after seeing what Florida did to Cincy this year?? Or what if you have an undefeated team like Texas in the title game, a one loss SEC champ, and an undefeated TCU?? Would the undefeated TCU go over the one loss SEC team?? That would be the most absurd decision of all time. Just look at the players on the field. There's no comparison between SEC football and the Mountain West or the Big East.

At some point, that scenario will happen, and I think that scenario is the biggest reason why I support a college football playoff. Somebody like TCU or Cincy should never waltz into the title game on the back of a 12-0 regular season alone. Beat a big boy in a playoff, and then I can live with it. But I'd rather see a one loss Big 12 team or USC or someone like that in the title game than freaking TCU.

Week 17 in the National Football League -- Major stock down on Week 17. The last week of the regular season has turned into a compete farce. Half the teams in the league are just mailing it in that week. And people wonder why NFL stadiums are having a tough time filling up and why a lockout is looming in 2011?? People are shelling out $100 a seat for 10 games (2 preseason), and almost 1/3 of those games are completely meaningless now. Why not just sit in front of your 50" plasma and shell out for The Sunday Ticket instead of buying season tickets and dealing with all the hassle on a Sunday and all the white trash drunks who are getting into fights left and right in the stands?? It's getting to the point where it's not worth it, especially when you're sitting there in the freezing cold watching a game where one of the teams has already packed it in.

The NFL has far and away the best television product in sports (and I'm saying that as a diehard college football guy). The game times are usually right on the 3 hour mark, the games are competitive, the HD and all the camera shots are all of the latest and greatest, and the players are spectacular. The ratings for NFL games on tv seem to go up 15% every year. But the live NFL experience is probably the worst in all of sports right now between the crappy weather and hilljack fans and expensive tickets. A lot of fans who used to trudge down there every Sunday seem to have walked away from it and might not be coming back any time soon. The number of blackouts in NFL cities this year was pretty remarkable.

Interest in the NFL has probably never been higher. Heck, I'll admit that my NFL interest had a massive renaissance this year (had nothing to do with the Bengals going to the playoffs this year, I swear!). But long term, the NFL would be wise to make sure fans who shell out money every year for season tickets are rewarded for their efforts. I think the NFL would be wise to consider some proposals to make sure the NFL remains interesting all the way through the regular season. I thought this "seeding" proposal by the Mike Florio of National Football Post was a very intriguing idea. If you had more of an NCAA style "seeding" with a selection committee for these teams instead of going straight off regular season records, I think that would make for fantastic drama down the stretch and would keep teams playing hard all the way through. A team like San Diego that finished red hot might be able to jump up and steal the #1 seed from Indy if the Colts rested their starters the last couple weeks. I think that would end the "mail in your last two games" strategy right away.

Plus, any reason to get Terry Bradshaw and Jimmy Johnson ready to brawl arguing over who deserved the #1 seed between Indy and San Diego would be good tv for all of us. Then again, maybe not.

Thad Matta -- Brutal start for Thad Matta and the Buckeyes thus far in Big Ten play. Back to back games where they got run off the floor. After such a promising start to the Thad Matta era with a Big Ten title in his second year and a Final Four run in his 3rd year, Thad is likely staring at the NIT/NCAA bubble for the 3rd straight year. Thad has had some bad luck the last couple years with injuries, but at what point is it time to ask some serious questions about his player evaluation and roster construction abilities???

People can talk about one and dones all they want (admittedly, the one and dones have been killers), but the real mistake that Matta has made has been with his filler recruits. Instead of staying patient and finding 4 year guys, he has burned through scholarships on JUCOs like PJ Hill and Jeremie Simmons and Kecman and borderline walk-on transfers like Kyle Madsen and Sirikopoulos. That's five scholarships on guys who can't play major college basketball. He went for some quick fixes to grab bodies after losing transfers and one and dones, but you can't give out scholarships to guys who can't play. If he had saved a few of those scholarships on a couple ballhandlers, Ohio State wouldn't be in the dire straits at guard that they are in now.

You can't have enough guards who can handle the ball on your roster. Ohio State has as good a collection of wing players as anyone, but no one at point guard to create offense from the top of the key.

And even with the one and dones, it's laughable that Matta just throws his hands up in the air on that topic and acts like he was blindsided by those guys leaving. Ummm, I've never spoken to BJ Mullens or Kosta Koufos or Oden or Daequon Cook once in my life, but even I knew every one of those guys was gone after one year. This was no big secret. If I knew, how would Thad not know it?? He's either lying or he's ignorant. Neither quality is especially flattering.

The only guy who legitimately "blindsided" him was Mike Conley, but that was one guy!! Thad recruited the other four knowing that they were gone. BJ Mullens and Koufos were so obviously "one and dones" that I'm astounded that Thad feigned surprise on either of them. He's insulting his fanbase.

Here's the point. If he recruits a nice 4 star big man instead of Mullens (Kenny Frease) and maybe adds one other solid big man recruit instead of Koufos, his program would have been better off. That two year gap of losing big men after one year was an absolute killer for his program. They have nothing inside the paint this year. If you don't have a couple guys who get you easy scores in the paint, it makes it really hard on your offense.

The amazing thing is that he's getting right back into the "one and done" pool next year!! They have two five star guys coming in next year, and DeShaun Thomas is hinting that his stay in Columbus will be for one year. And I'm still not sure there's a point guard on their roster again next year.

Just a very strange job of roster construction. Matta is a good coach without question and has landed a lot of talented players, but roster management is a key part of coaching. You need to have balanced classes and a balanced roster. If he wants to be produce consistently good teams at OSU, he'll need to adopt a better recruiting model. Otherwise, it will be a lot of highs and lows depending on what highly-touted freshman he can land.

Is Matta under any real pressure?? No, of course not. Buckeye fans don't care at all about basketball. Most people in Columbus don't even know who Thad Matta is. But after a meteoric rise in the early going at OSU and some monster recruiting successes, things have gotten a little wobbly for him in Columbus.