Signing Day: Thoughts on Notre Dame's class, Matt James, "oversigning" in the SEC, depth charts, and why I wish more of the RKGs were black guys.

10) Nice finish to the class with Matt James to make this class solid on paper, but it's also a class that got derailed by a coaching change and never lived up to high expectations. At this time last year, we were pulling down Te'o and Chris Martin and looking like we were poised for a monster recruiting class with guys like Henderson and Prater and Barr and others in the mix. And now, we're looking at a class that just doesn't have a whole lot of impact guys and really will need a number of sleepers to come through for this class to leave a positive legacy at ND.

Now, I’m not blaming Kelly or anything. He was in a tough spot, and he really has not had enough time to develop the types of relationships that you need to land the elite guys. I’m withholding all judgments on him until the class of 2011 returns start coming in (which could be happening as soon as this spring). If he can develop a few of those late signees into solid two deep players or special teams contributors, I’ll take it. We haven’t pushed up against the 85 scholarship limit in a long time, so maybe he felt like he could get up toward that number with the expectation that scholarships will open down the road following inevitable transfers and dropouts.

The other thing is that Kelly seems to be coming to ND with a different perspective on how to build a program. He's like the George Costanza of our program doing the opposite of everything that everyone before him has done. Weis came in flashing his Super Bowl rings and talking big about his offensive prowess, and he took that to the recruiting trail. Willingham came in selling....well.....stoicism?? And Davie came in selling this "player's coach" thing like he was going to make ND more modern and all that. And none of it worked because none of those guys really had their finger on the pulse on how to build a staff. Kelly is building this program from the ground up with an emphasis on player development and conditioning and discipline and teamwork.

Interestingly, Kelly's philosophy mirrors that of another coach.....Louis Leo Holtz. Great Lou Somogyi article here about Holtz's first recruiting class and his approach to building a program. (As an aside, is there a ND writer out there than Lou Somogyi?? I have yet to find one. I feel like I'm always learning something when I read his columns, and he's two steps ahead of every other ND guy out there. If you told me that Lou Somogyi was actually Lou Holtz writing under an alias, I wouldn't even bat an eye. Why BGI puts his columns out there for free I will never understand.)

Holtz focused on three things in order:

1) Uplift the players already on the roster
2) Assemble a staff
3) Recruiting

Lou's top priority that year was setting the tone for his program with the guys who were already there. Build the staff, build the program, and the wins and recruits will follow. He took a lot of "RKGs" that year like Pat Eilers and Stan Smagala, and those guys ended up becoming valuable contributors down the road.

Kelly has taken the same approach. He took his time making sure he got the right staff, and the top priority is on changing the minds and bodies of the guys already on our roster. Kelly wants to create a completely different culture at ND. I love the new attire requirements and things like that. It’s sort of a “Broken Windows” theory on building a program. Pay attention to the little things, and the big things will take care of themselves. Attention to detail. Weis never understood the importance of attention to detail, and it showed on the field. Poor discipline, dumb penalties, bad tackling, bad conditioning.

Kelly has changed everything at the Gug, and now has guys spending more time over there to foster team-building. This is what everyone else in college football is doing. If you want to win, your players need to be spending most of their time at the football facility working out and eating at the training table and getting better and building camaraderie. And put the academic stuff in the Gug to keep the guys in the building. Maybe this isn't the ideal "student-athlete" model that Monk Malloy envisioned, but this is how you win games. A culture of winning.

9) Biggest sleepers in my opinion are Utopo and Massa. I really like Utopo, but unfortunately I don't know what position he's going to play. He was probably looking like a 4-3 DE or maybe bulking up as an undersized 4-3 DT, and now I don't know where he fits in. Is he a 3-4 DE or OLB?? Just seems like he's a tweener there, and I wonder if he'll get lost in a 3-4 defense. Some of the Weis recruits that I was excited about are guys that I am less certain about in different schemes.

Just a hunch, but I think the guy who could end up playing QB out of this crew is Luke Massa. Maybe I'm wrong and Tommy Rees emerges as the Zach Collaros of ND football, but I've always felt that Kelly loved Luke Massa. The only reason it took awhile to bring him in was Kelly's reluctance to raid the UC program. Kelly feels like Massa is a perfect fit in his offense. I'm glad we pulled the trigger and brought him in.

8) The other thing I like is that we brought in a lot of size. We have lots of 6'4" and above guys with big frames who could transfer around to different positions. Those guys could be anything from DEs to LBs to OTs to Safeties to TEs to H-backs to quarterbacks. Just a lot of versatility there. I'd rather have a bunch of 6'4-225 guys with room to grow on my roster than a bunch of 285 pound guys who are fat in the middle and won't get a lick better. Or 6', 200 pound LBs who peaked in their junior year of high school.

7) Six Cincinnati-area guys is something that's always going to get me excited. James, Massa, Welch, Collinsworth, Nichols, and Hendrix. It’s an area that is naturally inclined toward ND with a lot of Catholic schools, and it’s a pretty fertile recruiting ground. We should always be a player for the best guys in the Cincy area. Great to see that we got six of them this year.

6) I also like that we have a lot of guys who are coachable and love football and are excited to be at ND. This is an underrated quality. We brought in a lot of late bloomers and underrated types who are going to come to ND with a chip on their shoulder to prove everyone wrong. That type of attitude can lay the foundation for this program. Give me a 2 star who loves the game and loves to hit and will lay it all on the line over some 4 star with an overinflated ego who doesn't love football or is going to ND for the wrong reasons.

At the very least, these guys are going to bust it on special teams. If a few of them crack the two deep, even better.

5) Where are the impact guys?? – James and Nix and Lombard look like building blocks up front, but there are not a lot of major impact guys in this class. It’s the type of class where guys will eventually grow into starters, but I don’t expect to see a lot of these guys on the field in their first year or two.

Think about where we were with this class when Chris Martin committed, and it seemed like every guy in the Rivals top 100 was in play for us. We were talking about Henderson and Prater and Barr and Riley and McCay and all these guys, and we didn't get one of them!! We went from thinking that we'd be getting 5-6 major impact guys to a class where we got one top 100 guy (Nix) and that's it. No five stars, no top 50 guys, no guarantee can't miss superstars like Floyd or Clausen or Te'o.

In the last two years, we've landed one five star guy (Te'o), zero other top 50 guys, and maybe 4-5 other top 100 type guys. After a couple monster hauls in 2007 and 2008, we've fallen off the last couple years in terms of the difference-makers and elite guys. We got no elite QBs, only one real promising WR prospect, no real RB stud to get excited about, no elite corners or safeties, and only 1-2 real horses in the front seven. There's just not much there at the top end.

Here's a sobering stat on the state of college football recruiting these days. There were 26 Rivals five stars this year, and all but 1-2 of them ended up south of the Mason-Dixon line. Of the top 7 classes on Rivals, five of them are SEC schools, and the other two are Texas and Oklahoma. The North-South class divide in college football seems to get wider and wider every single year. The Southern schools are just playing a different sport than the Northern schools for the most part. I know the Big Ten had a nice run in the bowl season this year, but we saw ten years of southern dominance prior to that.

I was down in Naples, Florida over the weekend visiting family, and it was jarring to me to see people out on high school fields playing football or baseball or whatever. I'm used to seeing snow on the ground in the winter, and not seeing people outside until mid-April. 365 days a year of sunshine to be outside down in Florida. This is what we're competing against up north.

You can overcome these things in the north to some degree (as we've seen at OSU and Penn State), but you gotta get the horses. Even though Ohio State has won with a lot of 3 star types, they also have landed the Claretts and Ted Ginns and Beanie Wells and Terrelle Pryors of the world. And we've seen this with the Floyds and Clausens and Te'os.

4) Future depth charts-- I'm looking at the last two classes, and here's what we've got in terms of depth at each position if you project these guys to where they are most likely headed.

DL (4) - Stockton, Nix, Utopo, Schwenke
LB (7) - Moore, Shembo, Motta, Fox, Te'o, Calabrese, Spond
DB (5) - Banks, Collinsworth, Badger, Boyd, Wood
TE (3) - Eifert, Welch, Roback
OL (8) - Watt, Bullard, Golic, Martin, Lombard, Heggie, Nichols, James
QB (3) - Hendrix, Rees, Massa
WR (5) - Evans, Toma, Daniel Smith, Bennett Jackson, Tai-Ler Jones
RB (3) - Riddick, Wood, Roberson
K (3) - Tausch, Turk, Cowart

Presumably, these guys will be the backbone of years 4 and 5 of the Brian Kelly era when this program is hopefully peaking. The concerning part for me is that I'm seeing a lot of potential trouble spots that will need to be supplemented in the next class or two.

--Defensive line looks like a massive concern. We've landed four d-linemen in the last two years, and one of them (Utopo) might end up as a linebacker. I know we've switched to the 3-4, but you still need 6-8 linemen in the stable that you can rotate in and out. Stockton and Nix can probably hold down the fort on the interior, but we need some ends to emerge in these next couple classes. If there's any saving grace, it's that we do have quite a few DL in the class of 2008 with 5th year eligible status. And I was impressed with Stockton from what I saw of him in the spring game last year. No margin for error though.

Biggest problem that I see with getting DL going forward is convincing them that they can thrive in the 3-4 defense. Their role in that unit is to take on blockers. What high school kid who had 15 sacks in his senior year of high school wants to show up and play a 3-4 where he might have 2-3 sacks all year?? It's a tough sell. College kids don't want to play in some defense where the best they can hope to be is "workmanlike." That's why I'm not crazy about the 3-4 defense in general.

Bottom line, we gotta get several d-linemen in this next recruiting class. We cannot go into 2012 and 2013 with 4-5 linemen on the roster. Kelly should be able to offer playing time galore to every guy out there.

--Linebacker looks fine, but I'm concerned that some of those guys are 4-3 and some are more 3-4 oriented. This is where that Weis flipflopping stuff killed us. We've been recruiting back and forth the last couple years between the 3-4 and the 4-3, and now we have a bunch of guys we've recruited who don't seem to fit in as well with the 3-4.

Weis was nothing short of a disaster at ND. I don't know why he still hasn't gotten lumped in with Willingham and Davie at this point. He flipflopped, he grab-bagged, his recruiting was hot and cold, he coddled players and played favorites, and he did absolutely nothing on the development front. This team completely wasted a bunch of talent the last three years. Maybe he wasn't as damaging to the program as Willingham was, but the Charlie Weis era was a complete waste of time.

--Incredibly, for all the hand-wringing, the o-line looks fine as well. We’ve brought in 8 big bodies in the last two classes. James, Martin, Nichols, and maybe even Heggie give us options at tackle, and we have Watt, Bullard, Golic, and Lombard on the interior. Look around college football. Most teams are not bringing in 4 OL a year. I’m glad that’s what we have done. You can’t have enough options up front in my book. Win the game on the lines.

--The secondary took a major step back in these two classes. We're going to be starting two white guys at safety for about the next five years. Depressing. We haven’t landed an impact safety in a long time.

And at corner, we fell off the last couple years from that strong run of Walls, McNeil, Gray, and Blanton. Doesn't really surprise me. Why would a corner have wanted to play for our team under Weis?? Guys like Walls and McNeil completely fell off the map this year.

Kelly needs to get out and find 2-3 impact guys in the secondary next year. I'd like to see one top 50 guy and maybe one other 4 star who turns down a bunch of SEC schools or something. Really want to get a Glenn Earl or David Bruton type stud safety who is all over the field. We can't go into 2012-13 staring at Austin Collinsworth at safety.

--Running back seems ok, but we gotta get another horse next year. Theo Riddick is going to be a stud, but you need depth. Not sure what the plan is for Cierre Wood, and I don't know if Roberson will end up at running back. I know we're running a spread now with more of a one-back emphasis, but it never hurts to have running backs on the roster. If they can't make it at running back, they can play safety. Give me a bunch of running backs who are fast and athletic at safety over a bunch of white guys all day long.

--Even wide receiver isn't blowing me away. I like Jones and Evans (although he completely faded last year), but who knows what we can expect from Toma and Smith and Jackson. We need a gamebreaker. Really wish we had landed Prater or McCay. Gotta go out and get a beast at WR in this next class. A Mike Floyd type. Seems like this DeAnthony Arnett guy might be the one we go hard after next year.

I could see Tai-Ler Jones coming in and competing for playing time as soon as next year though, which would be nice. In fact, if Shaq Evans isn't ready to go in 2010, Jones could steal that coveted Mardy Gilyard spot out from under him.

--Finally, there's quarterback. What can we make of this QB recruiting?? How many of these guys will end up at QB?? My guess is three will start out at QB, and I'd guess that we'll be down to two of these guys by the winter of 2011. One will inevitably transfer, and maybe two.

Two questions on the QB situation:

1) Can any of these guys start someday?? -- I'd certainly say yes just because Kelly has a reputation for developing quarterbacks, and it seems like a couple of these guys are natural fits for a Brian Kelly offense.

If I were to handicap the QBs in terms of starting at ND someday, here's how I'd put the odds right now:

Luke Massa - 3:1
Tommy Rees - 5:1
Andrew Hendrix - 10:1
Danny Spond - 20:1

Just feels like Massa is "the one" out of this group. Then again, Kelly might bring in someone in 2011 that he absolutely loves, and none of these guys ever sees the field. that wouldn't surprise me at all.

2) Are all these QBs going to scare off 2011 recruits?? -- Hmm, that's certainly something to be concerned about, but the elite guys don't get scared by the Luke Massas and Tommy Reeses of the world. They might even see this depth chart as an opportunity to beat out some less-heralded guys and start almost right away at ND.

We saw this in 2006. We brought in Frazer and Jones that year, and landed Clausen before those guys even stepped on campus. It's the nature of the beast. Clausen wasn't scared by competition for the job because he knew he was the best guy.

That's how I view our situation right now. We have a few birds in hand, but an elite QB might view our depth chart as a good thing in terms of being able to win the job soon after arriving on campus. It's a lot less intimidating than what our depth chart looked like a couple years ago with Clausen and Crist in there.

I'd love to see Kelly go out there and bring in a top 10 QB next year. That would really set up an anchor for next year's recruiting class.

3) The elephant in the room on RKGs -- Lots of discussions on RKGs lately, and I generally understand what Kelly is trying to do here. He's looking at a program that has had an awfully tough time filling out 85 scholarships on the roster, and he seems to be content to bring in bodies and coach some of these late bloomers up into productive players by the time they hit year 4 and 5 in the program. I get the whole "bird in hand" theory here. If we save scholarships and guys transfer and we don't fill out the class in 2011, we could be looking at a very thin roster in years 4 and 5 when Kelly really wants to crank it up with this program. We might be better off getting bodies and developing them than always waiting until next year. That might put an end to our Chicago Cubs-ish mentality.

I also really think Kelly believes in his system of finding undervalued guys. A lot of these coaches at smaller schools have a "Moneyball" type approach to finding players. When in doubt, they take high school quarterbacks and running backs because those guys are typically the best athletes on the team. Think about that for a minute. That was probably the case at your high school. It was for mine as well. Those guys are typically your leaders and communicators as well out on the field. They are a natural fit for safety or linebacker if you bring them in and switch their position. Kelly believes that if you're a football player, you'll be able to play anywhere. That's probably what he sees in Roback and Spond.

And the other thing is finding guys who big frames who might be able to put on 40-50 pounds in college. Guys like Nichols and Heggie. You might see both those guys playing offensive tackle someday. Take a tight end who is light on his feet and convert him into a quicker tackle who is more equipped for the modern spread offenses, and you might really have something.

Kelly closed out this class with a flurry of RKGs. I only have one problem with this move. These guys are ALL WHITE!! Every one of these RKG types. Collinsworth, Massa, Heggie, Nichols, Spond, and Roback. You're telling me you wouldn't be more excited if a few of these guys were super athletic, black QBs who Kelly was planning to switch positions?? If that was the case, I'd be really buying in. At least I'd view them as guys with higher ceilings. A bunch of 6'4, 220 pound fast black guys sounds like a recipe for a fast, athletic defense that flies to the ball. The fact that all these guys are white makes me wonder about their athleticism and whether we should be putting all our eggs in that basket. It just seems like a lot of effort to bring in a bunch of 3 star white guys and try to develop them when you can just save the scholarships for next year and go for better players next year.

Then again, we’ve seen a million no-name high school players come out of nowhere and end up in the NFL. Only difference is that those guys were black!! Guys like Marques Colston and Darren Sharper and James Harrison. A guy like Heggie has maybe a 1% chance of blossoming into an NFL player someday. He didn’t get overlooked because of bad grades or character issues or some other reason (Rivals doesn’t deny that they lower star rankings for those types of guys). He got overlooked because he hasn’t shown any real ability to be a major college player at this point. Mardy Gilyard gets brought up as an RKG type, which couldn’t be further from the truth. Gilyard was a 4 star talent with zero star grades and major issues coming out of high school. Plus, he was undersized. But watch that guy athletically, and it’s not like he’s some overachiever. He has major talent.

I know Kelly has a formula and all for finding players, but there's a reason that the elite teams are loaded with black guys on their defenses. The only team that has really relied almost exclusively on white guys on their defense is Iowa, and I'm not sure I'd call Iowa our "aspirational peer" in terms of what we aspire to be as a program. I'd rather see our defense look more like Texas or USC.

People can deny it all they want, but you can't trot out some whitewash on defense and think you're going to be a championship program

2) How many scholarships are available for 2011?? -- The other thing I'm leery of with these RKGs is that they might eat into Kelly's first big class in 2010. It seems like we will have around 18-20 scholarships to offer in 2010 if guys transfer and Floyd leaves and some 5th years come back. That's not a bad number, but it would have been nice to have all 25 scholarships available next year to hand out when Kelly has had an opportunity to build relationships with high school coaches and really get a feel for what talent is out there nationally. The second class is always a big year for these coaches. They are still in their honeymoon period with a lot of playing time to offer to guys who can come in knowing that they are the new coach's guys. Kelly really needs to hit a home run with this class and bring in a top 10 class (if not top 5).

By offering guys like Heggie and Roback, we might be limiting ourselves to some degree on who we can go after in 2011. We need a QB, 1-2 RBs, 3-4 OL, 3-4 DL, 2-3 LBs, 2-3 DBs, and maybe a couple WRs. And that's before you start talking about tight ends and kickers and random "athlete" recruits. The other thing is that there's a lot of pressure to land a number of sure-thing types next year, but we might also want to reel in some "birds in hand" while we wait for them. Will we have room for all that?? Just seems like Kelly is going to have to thread the needle a little bit.

I don't want to sound all gloom and doom because I do think this is a solid class with a number of building blocks. And I have said all along that Kelly is a great coach who will recruit well when he gets his name out and there and starts selling kids on his vision for this program. But I do think that it’s imperative that we land a big class in 2011 even though we aren't that loaded with scholarships.

It's going to be interesting to watch how this develops this spring. Biggest key for Kelly is to win ballgames in the fall. If he does that, recruiting will take off and probably set us up for a great 3 year run on the trail in 2011-13.

1) National thoughts:

--Amazing what we’re seeing in the SEC right now on the recruiting trail. The top ten on Rivals is like a who’s who of the SEC. That league just gets stronger and stronger every year.

The other interesting story out of the SEC is that the “oversigning” stuff that you see out of these SEC schools is actually starting to create a little backlash from the rest of college football. These SEC schools all sign 27-30 guys (even though they are only allowed 25) knowing that not all of them will qualify and that they can stash the non-qualifiers in prep schools or JUCOs until they get academically eligible. And when these guys do get eligible, they run off underachievers by nudging them to transfer or even by not renewing their scholarships. The whole thing is a monster sham. Everyone else is playing by the 25-85 scholarship rules, and you have SEC teams signing 120 guys in four year periods. They’ve created these all-star teams by oversigning, weeding out bad performers, and replenishing with prep school guys.

The SEC is not even pretending to be anything other than a football factory. I don’t necessarily have a problem with it, but it’s probably an unfair advantage over everyone else in college football. A school like ND is going to honor a scholarship for four years if you want to stay. If Heggie never sees the field, he’s not going to get run off to open up room for someone else (unless he transfers on his own of course). That’s why it’s so important for ND to hit on as many high school recruits as possible. We don’t take JUCOs or non-qualifiers or oversign with the expectation that guys won’t make it. ND plays by the rules, but it puts us at a disadvantage.

--Amazing how strong USC closes. Ed Orgeron is a recruiting machine.

--Pretty strong effort by Jimbo Fisher in his first year. Seems like a lot of guys went to the Noles late in the process. Should be interesting to see what FSU does this year.

--Of the future ND opponents, Michigan and Stanford had top 25 classes, and Michigan State and Pitt had top 30ish classes. Nothing too groundbreaking there. It will be interesting to see if Devin Gardner gets playing time this year up in Ann Arbor.

--Oh, and future ND opponent Oklahoma has the #6 class on Rivals. That will be a tough series, so hopefully Kelly has the Irish rolling by then.

--Finally, I thought this was fascinating. The #84 ranked class this year?? Wisconsin. And I'd be willing to bet that Wisky will be just fine going forward. Just goes to show that recruiting is a very inexact science, and that some programs have a better feel for what types of players they need to win games. Wisky will turn all those 2 and 3 star linemen into players. They always do.

The 2009 NBA Draft Revisited...And Other Basketball Thoughts

It’s the midpoint of the NBA season, and while Irish fans stew over Brian Kelly’s recruiting and enthusiasm turns to apathy over the ND basketball program, I figured it would be a good time to take a look back at the 2009 NBA Draft Lottery and make some evaluations. What, I can’t write about something other than Notre Dame football?

Full disclosure, I haven’t watched as much NBA action as I would have liked. Some of these guys I’ve watched on TV (thank you Time Warner for adding NBATV in HD for free!), but others like Tyreke Evans, I’m just going off of SportsCenter highlights and stats, because as far as I can tell the Kings are in the NBA’s version of the witness protection program.

I do know that Larry Brown has cemented his legacy as one of the best pure coaches ever, as in the history of basketball. If you don’t believe me, look at what he has done with the Charlotte Bobcats, who play in a morgue and have a GM who is more concerned with, well, just about everything than actually being a GM. Their best player is an undersized forward who is 7th in the league in rebounding (Gerald Wallace). Their leading scorer, who they willingly traded for, is a guy more known for a) brawling in the Palace, and b) shooting up a strip club parking lot (Stephen Jackson.) So yeah, Larry Brown has earned his paycheck by getting the Cats into the playoff picture. Living in the Charlotte area, myself and 14 other people have definitely caught Bobcat fever.

Ok, back to the draft. I figured I would give the stats of the guy (ppg / rpg / apg, unless otherwise noted), his bust potential going forward, and a reconfigured lottery looking back in hindsight.

1. LA Clippers – Blake Griffin – N/A
No brainer pick at the time and no way they could have known he would blow out his knee, try to come back, and have to shut it down for the whole season. The curse of the Clippers lives on!

Bust potential: Low, unless he can’t shake the injuries. He was too good in college too flame out this early.
The pick: Blake Griffin


2. Memphis : Hasheem Thabeet – 2.7 / 3.2 / 1.2 bpg
A pick that was universally panned at the time, and what do you know – it still was a crappy pick. Anyone who watched college basketball could see that Thabeet had no semblance of an offensive game. Anyone who watched pro basketball could see that the NBA was moving away from these big, clumsy, lumbering centers. Apparently the Grizz front office watched neither.

Bust potential: Through the roof. At this point, his ceiling is an Adonal Foyle type career if he’s lucky.
The pick: Tyreke Evans


3. Oklahoma City: James Harden – 9.9 / 3.3 / 2.2
I wasn’t high on this pick and I’m still not loving it, but it’s turned out ok for OKC. Harden will never be a star, which is ideally what you would want out of the #3 pick in the draft, but it filled a need and Harden looks like he has a long NBA career ahead of him as a 12-15 ppg scorer.

Bust Potential : Low, as talked about above
The pick: Brandon Jennings


4. Sacramento: Tyreke Evans – 20.8 / 5 / 5
Umm, not sure if everyone realizes this, but here was LeBron’s rookie line – 20.9 / 5.5 / 5.9. Tyreke Evans through half of a season is the equivalent of LeBron, and he’s doing it while playing the point. He’s already locked up the Rookie of the Year, and there is no question that he is a superstar in the making. The only question is whether he is a point or two guard going forward.

Bust potential: What’s the opposite of through the ceiling? Through the floor?
The pick: Stephen Curry


5. Minnesota: Ricky Rubio – N/A
Who knows what was really talked about between Rubio and the TWolves in the days leading up to the draft? I was buying into the Rubio hype, but if the kid said he wasn’t going to come and play in Minnesota, then maybe they should have moved on and let him be somebody else’s problem.

Bust Potential: Anybody’s guess. I’d like to see him in an NBA uniform before I make any proclamations
The pick: Jonny Flynn


6. Minnesota: Jonny Flynn – 14 / 2.4 / 4.2
I actually like this pick. I always liked Flynn’s game in college and so far it has translated relatively well to the pros. Not that it has actually helped the T-Wolves. Although Kevin Love is actually averaging a 15 and 12 (fourth in the league in rebounding) in case you were curious.

Bust potential: Small. I don’t think Flynn will ever be an All-Star, and his size is a little concerning, but I think he can be an effective point for a long time. Maybe like a TJ Ford type career.
The pick: James Harden


7. Golden State: Stephen Curry – 14 / 4 / 4.5
Curry has pretty quickly silenced the doubters that he was too small or that his game wouldn’t translate to the Association. Sure, it helps that he’s playing NellieBall, but facts are facts. Steph is shooting 43% from 3, and that will earn you a paycheck for a long time. Check out his 26-10-6 and 29-9-7 game from the last 5 games to see how effective he has been.

Bust Potential: None. If he is this proficient offensively as a rookie, there is no doubt he has a permanent place in the NBA. Of course his size will always be a liability defensively, but guards who average 20 a game, which is where I think Curry will end up, don’t grow on trees.
The pick: Ty Lawson


8. New York: Jordan Hill – 4.3 / 2.4 rpg
Wasn’t a huge fan of this pick at the time and obviously I’m guessing the Knicks and their fans aren’t big fans of this pick right now. In fact, his Arizona teammate Chase Budinger, who fell all the way to the middle of the second round, is enjoying a more productive rookie season so far.

Bust Potential: High. Mike Dantoni compared him to a young Amare at draft time. Today, he might be comparing him to a young Stromile Swift. Not great. Could still evolve into something, but really hasn’t shown much on a bad Knicks team.
The pick: Ricky Rubio – Who knows, maybe Rubio comes over to play at the World’s Most Famous Arena for 7 Seconds or Less Genius Mike Dantoni. In fact, yes, I believe that Rubio would have found a way out of his Euro contract to come play for the Knicks. Would playing with a young exciting point guard have been enough to lure LeBron away from Cleveland this summer? We’ll never know.


9. Toronto: Demar DeRozan – 8.2 / 3 / 1
Solid pick for the Raptors. DeRozan is the rare SG who doesn’t shoot 3’s (only 14 all year) but instead is more of a slasher. That fits in well with the Raptors who already have a bunch of 3 point bombers in Hedu and Bargnani. I think DeRozan could evolve into a solid player, maybe like an Andre Iguodala, down the road.

Bust Potential: Medium. You have to be able to shoot in the NBA, plain and simple. If DeRozan can work on his outside shot, he could be a star. Even if it never comes around, he’s a good enough athlete that he’ll make it.
The pick: DeRozan


10. Milwaukee: Brandon Jennings – 17.8 / 3.5 / 6.3
The Bucks straight up nailed this pick. The dreaded “character concerns” plagued Jennings leading up to the draft, but the Bucks obviously did their homework and when he fell into their laps they made the pick. Jennings was anointed the next big thing after his 50 point game, but he has struggled somewhat since then. Of course, it doesn’t help playing on a Michael Redd-less Bucks team. Even so, he is going to be a star in the league for a while. Think Steph Marbury in his prime (and that’s a compliment.)

Bust Potential: None
The pick: DeJaun Blair. With Jennings off the board, the Bucks might have looked to western Pennsylvania for a forward who inexplicably fell to the second round and into the hands of the savvy Spurs. Dejuan Blair – best pick of the draft.


11. New Jersey: Terrence Williams – 7 / 3.8 rpg
What does it say about Williams that he is only getting 20 mpg on a historically terrible Nets team while shooting a horrific 37%. I think it says that he fits into a category that I like to call the “jack – master” player. As in, jack of everything, master of nothing. Williams did a little bit of everything at Louisville, but could you ever really say that he did ONE thing at an NBA level. He was never a great shooter, never a prolific rebounder, and he was a good passer for a bigger guy but nothing that was incredible or anything. There have been a few of these “jack-master” players recently, and almost all of them just haven’t panned out. Corey Brewer (career line of 8-3-1). Julian Wright (career 4-2-1). Even a guy like Hakim Warrick has been a relative bust with a line of 10 points and 4 boards. Look around NBA rosters, and you’ll see plenty of jack-masters who were BMOC’s on campus but whose game just didn’t translate into the NBA.

Bottom line, if you’re not a natural scorer and you don’t do at least one thing really well, whether it’s shoot (Steve Novak, Jasaon Kapono, Kyle Korver), rebound (Paul Millsap, Reggie Evans) or penetrate and dish (Aaron Brooks, Lou Williams), it’s tough to carve out a productive career in the NBA.

Bust Potential: High
The pick: Austin Daye


12. Charlotte: Gerald Henderson – 2.7 / 1
Stop me if you’ve heard this before. The Bobcats get lazy in their scouting, let their marketing department make the pick, and draft an overrated local player WAY too early. They did it with Ray Felton, Sean May, and now Henderson, who is rotting on Larry Brown’s bench. This was just a dumb and wasted pick. Henderson obviously has the bloodlines, so I’m not willing to write him off yet, but right now he looks like he’ll join the lengthy list of Coach K NBA busts.

Bust Potential: High
The pick: Omri Casspi


13. Indiana: Tyler Hansbrough – 8.5 / 5 / 1
Larry Bird loves his white guys, and he took the best available one here in the lottery. They have to be the only NBA team that can throw out a whitewash lineup of Travis Diener, Mike Dunleavy, Hansbrough, Troy Murphy and Jeff Foster, with Josh McRoberts as the 6th man. Seriously, there can’t be any other NBA team that can make that claim. And Larry doesn’t mess around with those Euro’s. Give him red-blooded Americans. Unfortunately, the Pacers are 16-29 and 18.5 games out of first. Might be time to rethink that strategy, Legend.

Bust Potential: Low. Hansbrough will never be a star, but in a relatively weak draft class, getting a rotational big man here is ok.
The pick: Hansbrough.


14. Phoenix: Earl Clark – 3 / 1
Move along, nothing to see here, other than a big man shooting 38%. The Suns may be the worst drafting team of the decade. Other than Amare, they have either gotten nothing or dealt away their pick to save cash every year. Clark is another one of those “jack-master” players. Was never really blown away by him at Louisville.

Bust Potential: Higher than high
The pick: Taj Gibson


Some other NBA thoughts:
- It wouldn’t be an NBA column from me if I didn’t give a State of the Sixers address. I can sum up their organization right now in three words: Blow. It. Up. The whole things. Ed Stefanski, GM? Goodbye. Eddie Jordan, 1st year coach? See ya. Elton Brand, Sam Dalembert, Andre Iguodala? Thanks but no thanks. Build around Jrue Holiday, Thad Young, Marreese Speights. Maybe Lou Williams. Of course this plan is impossible because they gave horrendous contracts to Brand ($80 Million!!??) and Dalembert. My hope is that they can move one of those lead weight contracts at the deadline with Iggy, who actually has some value.

- How fast has Tracy McGrady fallen? Two years ago he averaged 22 points a game. Now he doesn’t even play and can’t stay healthy. He’s only 30, but it seems like an OLD 30.

- Guy about to make the leap to superstardom: Kevin Durant (shaping up to be a Bowie / Jordan draft, with the Blazers taking Oden. Although one has to wonder if Sam Bowie ever took pictures of his, ummm, manhood and posted it online). Durant is simply unbelievable this year, and he has elevated the whole OKC team from its former moribund state. In case you weren’t aware, he is 3rd in the league in scoring at 29.3, ahead of Kobe and D-Wade and behind only a few gentlemen by the name of Melo and LeBron.

- NBA Finals Prediction: Cavs – Lakers; Cavs in 6

A few college thoughts:
-I’ve seen Kentucky play a few times and overall have been pretty impressed. But let me say this. Even though he is averaging a 16-10, I would be extra leery of drafting DeMarcus Cousins. He is just a bad body language, bad character, bad teammate type player. I just keep thinking of Michael Beasley, who has been nothing but trouble for the Heat. Maybe I’m wrong, but those type of guys usually end up being more trouble than their worth. I’m fully prepared to eat my words next year, but that’s how I see it right now. I would go with Derrick Favors from GT, who is averaging a 12 and 9, over Cousins.

- I love John Wall. I think Derrick Rose was better.

- There is a place for Andy Rautins in the NBA.

- I saw Greivis Vasquez come through Winston-Salem a few weeks ago and was pretty impressed. He is not being touted as a big NBA prospect, but I think he is a real sleeper. He is a 6’6 point guard who has been through the rigors of the ACC for 4 years. This year, he’s averaging 17- 4.5- 6 apg, and doesn’t have a whole lot of talent with him right now on the Maryland roster. Plus he’s shooting 38% from 3.

- Guy I’m not sold on who makes NBA scouts and Chad Ford’s heart melt: Greg Monroe.

- Guy who I’m sold on who NBA scouts may not be: Jarvis Varnado from Mississippi State. A few things translate really well to the NBA, but maybe nothing more than rebounding and shot blocking. And Varnado does both of those as well or better than anybody in the country. But you can’t just be a Hasheem Thabeet, you have to have some offensive game, and Varnado does. Plus he’s a lot quicker than Thabeet.

- My favorite player to watch this year, and I’m biased because I got to the same fine institution as he does, is Ish Smith from Wake Forest. So quick with the ball in his hands, such a good passer, and a much improved shooter. He is going to make somebody very happy with a second round pick next year. Check out a Wake game if you can at some point this year.

- For my money, the best team I’ve seen this year is Syracuse. The zone is just suffocating people this year, and they have a great combination of shooters and big guys, plus talent off the bench with Scoop Jardine and Kris Joseph.

- My Final Four picks as of right now: Syracuse, Kentucky, Villanova, Michigan State. Not very original, but I think there is a real lack of marquee teams out there right now.

- Finally, I’ll justify the existence of this 3000 words on an ND blog by offering a few quick hitters on ND basketball:

o I don’t know who to blame, Mike Brey or the administration, but I know somebody has to be at blame for the current state of the program.

o You’re telling me we can’t have two questionable students walking around campus. Two out of 8,000? That’s all it would take to make our program a contender. Throw in, let’s say a Damion James and a Wes Johnson with TJ, Abro and Gody and now we’re talking. Not to say that those types of players would even come to ND, but at least let Brey make a run at some of these guys. If a guy comes out of Catholic school in NYC or North Jersey, they are ND material in my eyes.

o There’s not much else to say. We are good enough at home to occasionally win a big game like West Virginia (although even that felt like a loss the way we almost blew it), but the real measure of the talent on hand is more indicative of the UConn, Syracuse and Nova game are a better measure of our place in the Big East right now.


Coming soon (within the next 365 days): A Look Back at the 2008 NBA Draft

Huge. Quickly. Maryland: Thoughts on a possible Notre Dame-Maryland matchup in 2011

Looks like we might finally have some positive news on the scheduling front! We won't know that this game is for sure until the ink dries on a contract, but I think this rumored Notre Dame-Maryland game at FedEx Field in DC would be a solid addition to the schedule. Even though Swarbrick has faced a lot of heat for his early stances on scheduling, I am more than happy to give him credit where credit is due. Hopefully this is a sign of more to come.

This Maryland game is a step in the right direction if you ask me. Maryland is not an elite opponent or anything, but they are a solid, mid-level ACC team that will at least look decent on the schedule, especially in November. I'd rather play someone like Maryland than just about any midmajor team out there.

Here's Maryland's history in the last five years

2005 Maryland 5-6 3-5 T-3rd (Atlantic)
2006 Maryland 9-4 5-3 T-2nd (Atlantic)
2007 Maryland 6-7 3-5 T-5th (Atlantic)
2008 Maryland 8-5 4-4 T-3rd (Atlantic)
2009 Maryland 2-10 1-7

Ok, so not exactly stellar there and the bottom really fell out this year, but the Terps are basically a .500 type team in the ACC. Then again, I said something similar about Washington State when we scheduled that game a few years back, and they completely went into the tank after that. Guess you never know how these teams will turn out. Hopefully Maryland will at least be respectable in 2011.

Some other thoughts on this move:

1) Opens the door to the ACC -- If this game ends up being in November, it's at least a reasonable opponent compared to the Tulsas and Western Michigans of the world that we've been lining up in the second half of our recent schedules. Maryland isn't exactly a marquee opponent, but it's the kind of game that a typical conference team would play. Last year, Maryland played FSU, NC State, Virginia Tech, and BC in the month of November. No one looks at Maryland and says "man, that's a joke of a game." It's a respectable, reasonable game.

The other thing that appeals to me is that at least it's a little variety. Other than BC, we don't really have any regular games with ACC opponents anymore. Personally, I would love to play more ACC teams. I think we should make it a goal to play at least one a year and two if it's a year when we're playing BC as well. The mid-level ACC teams are perfect for a quality tier two type game on the schedule, especially in the years when we can't find a third heavyweight to play. The Georgia Techs and North Carolinas and Clemsons of the world. I would love to play home and homes with any of those schools or even 1-1-1 home-away-neutral series. Sign me up for a Clemson road trip right now.

So Maryland is a good start to maybe break the ice with the ACC on playing us more regularly in October and November. If this Maryland game goes well, maybe these other ACC schools will perk up about playing us. And if the game is well-received by ND fans, Swarbrick and the collars might see some future value to ACC opponents and reach out as well.

We should try to play one ACC team every year in November. Some years, it would be a heavyweight (FSU, Miami, Virginia Tech), and some years it could be a Georgia Tech/Clemson/UNC type game. And if you want to squeeze in the Marylands and Wakes of the world, I can live with that.

2) Legitimate neutral site game -- I think another part of the appeal for this game is that it's a substantially better neutral site option than what we've arranged with the first two scheduled "neutral" site games. The Washington State game was ok in theory, but completely fizzled in terms of opponent and ticket sales, and this Army game in 2010 in New York City is a glorified exhibition. Not saying you can't have a good time at either game (I probably will end up going to both), but there's nothing about those games that redeems the whole "barnstorming" concept. If we're going to just play cupcakes and junk teams, then scrap the idea.

At least the Maryland game shapes up to be a legitimate neutral site game. The game is in DC right in Maryland's breadbasket. I would expect them to bring out 30,000+ fans to this game. Throw in 50,000-60,000 fired up DC/Baltimore/Philly area ND fans, and it should be a good neutral site type atmosphere.

If we're going to play a neutral site game, this is the type of neutral site game I'm ok with. A decent BCS school in an area where there's a strong ND fanbase and a nexus with our opponent. It gives us some exposure in an area outside the Midwest, and it allows us to schedule a decent opponent without having to do a home and home. I can live with that.

The other thing I like is that it sounds like this game might replace the rumored Army game in Orlando. Fine by me!! There was no reason to play that game against Army when we're already playing them in 2010 and possibly 2012. And I especially don't want to play Army when we already have 2-3 other "buy games" on the schedule.

So if this Maryland game replaces the Army game, at the very least it's a substantial upgrade to the 2011 schedule.

3) So what else is coming for 2011??

Ok, so assuming that this Maryland game comes about, here's what we got right now for the 2011 schedule:

S04 ???
S10 @ Michigan
S17 MICHIGAN STATE
S24 @ Pittsburgh
O01 @Purdue
O08 BYE
O15 TBA
O22 SOUTHERN CAL
O29 NAVY
N05 CONNECTICUT
N12 TBA
N19 SOUTH FLORIDA
N26 @ Stanford
Maryland (neutral - Washington DC)

First, this schedule has apparently been reconfigured. That Purdue game was supposed to be the opener, but that has now been pushed back to October 1. I like that move. No reason to open the season at Purdue. The South Florida game also got moved from October 1 to November 19. No problem for me on that game either. We'll get USF late in the year when they probably will want nothing to do with the South Bend cold weather.

The placement of the Maryland game will be interesting, and could have a major effect on how the rest of the schedule shapes up. I'm seeing three different spots:

1) Opening game -- Since the Purdue game got moved into October, we now have an open spot for the first week of the season. Maybe the plan is to play Maryland in DC for the opener. This actually could be kinda cool since we could probably get the game scheduled at night on NBC. There are never too many attractive matchups on the first weekend of the college football season, so we could get a little spotlight game to start the year and maybe build some buzz for this Irish team. Reminds me of what we did against Maryland before the 2002 season in Ty's first year. After that game, everyone was buzzing about the Irish.

Now that I think about it, I really like that idea. Kelly is going to be looking to make a statement in his second year. Why not do it on national tv on opening night?? If we go out and smoke Maryland, that could set the tone for the whole year. Only downside is that we'd have a gauntlet in those first five games, and Kelly/Swarbrick might prefer to get a cupcake in here to play in the opener before the Michigan game.

If we play the Maryland game in week one, then I'd say play a cupcake on October 15 before the USC game. Just line up some Nevada type team, so that the team can stay fresh coming off the bye before the SC game. Get a win and build some momentum. Actually, if we wanted to keep Army in that October 15 spot, I'm ok with that.

2) October 15 -- This is where the Army game in Orlando was originally scheduled. Assuming that game is off (and that hasn't been announced so maybe it's still on), maybe this Maryland game could slide into that spot. Then we can play a tomato can in the opener and not have to risk a tricky opener with Maryland in an unfamiliar venue.

Only concern for me on that front is that we'd be playing two "marquee" games in a row with the neutral site game on October 15 followed by the SC game on October 22. Then again, maybe a great performance against Maryland would have this team brimming with confidence heading into the USC game. I don't mind being tested prior to USC. In the past, we've had too many situations where we played a bunch of dogs prior to the SC game and weren't ready for their speed and talent. The 2006 game was probably the best example of that. We ran through all the service academies, and then looked completely overwhelmed when the USC game rolled around. You want to be peaking heading into that game. That's something that has rarely occurred for us in recent years.

3) November 12 -- Maybe Swarbrick and company think of this Maryland game as a truly "marquee" event and want to showcase this game in November. To be honest, I'm not as crazy about that idea. The November schedule really needs a "heavyweight" to anchor that month. Closing down the season with Navy, UConn, Maryland (neutral), South Florida, Stanford is not exactly a championship level test for this team, especially since we aren't in a conference and wouldn't be playing a conference championship game. Pollsters like to see that you've beaten a quality team in a big rivalry game or a championship game setting. If we run through the Big East, Maryland, and Stanford, we're not going to get a whole lot of love for doing that.

Now is Maryland in DC in November better than playing Tulsa or Western Michigan or some other chump team?? YES!! Absolutely, and if that's the choice, then by all means play Maryland instead. But if we're really trying to put together a high-quality schedule that tests our mettle (which Coach Kelly specifically mentioned that he wanted), then I would save that November spot for a quality home and home series. It doesn't even have to be a "heavyweight." Play someone like Georgia Tech or Arkansas or Texas A&M if you want. We'll play them at home in 2011 and then play them on the road in 2014 when we have an available spot. We could even schedule an additional neutral site game to sweeten the pot. This schedule needs a third big game to balance out the second half of the schedule.

Here would be a hypothetical 2011 schedule:

S04 Maryland (DC)
S10 @ Michigan
S17 MICHIGAN STATE
S24 @ Pittsburgh
O01 @Purdue
O08 BYE
O15 ARMY
O22 SOUTHERN CAL
O29 NAVY
N05 CONNECTICUT
N12 CLEMSON
N19 SOUTH FLORIDA
N26 @ Stanford

Insert Tennessee or some other big name if you're feeling frisky, but I could live with someone like Clemson or Georgia Tech while our program is still finding its footing.

I think that schedule would be fantastic and not even that nasty. It would have four true road games, good balance, two well-placed cupcakes before and after the SC game, a quality neutral site game on opening day that would make for a great road trip, and two really good home games with USC and Clemson. Suddenly, that November schedule would not be that bad with UConn, Clemson, USF, and Stanford. You can probably assume that 1-2 of those teams would be ranked. That's about all I can ask for.

Hope Swarbrick and Heisler can get this game done.

Notre Dame Recruiting: Is our California recruiting effort worth the fuss?? (Plus thoughts on the NFL and Bernard/Leuders)

3) Unfortunate news for Notre Dame football this week coming out of Southern California, but I wanted to use the news about Anthony Barr's verbal commitment to UCLA as an opportunity to reflect on our recruiting in California in general.

First, maybe it's sour grapes, but I don't consider Barr to be as disastrous of a loss as it has been made out to be. It's unfortunate that we didn't get him because he's obviously a great athlete and you never want to miss out on a great athlete, but he seems like one of those guys who we wouldn't have known what to do with as far as position is concerned. He probably have would have shown up as a running back, then switched to linebacker, then safety, and four years from now, we'd be reading "Anthony Barr ready to finally break out in his senior year" stories. His ego is telling him he's an RB or a safety while his body screams out that he should be an outside linebacker or undersized defensive end.

This comes back to that whole RKG talk. Kelly wants "team guys." Not that Barr is a bad guy or anything, but you want guys who are going to put the team above their own personal interests. If the coach says "son, we think you're going to be a great defensive end in this program," you want a guy who is going to buy into that and lay it all on the line to be a great defensive end. If Barr's attitude is "I'm a safety because that's where I'm best suited for an NFL career," that's not doing anything for your college football team.

Barr would have been a better fit in the Charlie Weis era when everything was about catering to these guys' NFL aspirations. But the goal is to win college football games. I want ND players to go on to the NFL of course, but you want pro development to be a byproduct of winning and great play on the field. Kelly's big emphasis is on finding guys who will put the team above everything else.

Anyway, the whole Barr thing got me thinking about our California recruiting in general. California recruiting is important for this program, but how important?? For every great player we've landed out of California, it seems like we have an equal amount of Cali guys who end up transferring or having unproductive careers.

While we have always had a smattering of players from California on the roster through the years, it really seems like California recruiting has picked up as an integral part of our talent base in the last decade or so, especially during the Weis era. Heck, a lot of people (me included) were hoping that Brian Polian would stick around at ND just because of his California recruiting prowess alone. Weis had particularly good success out there with skill players because of his reputation as an NFL quarterback guru and pro style offensive coordinator.

I think you could even make a case that we have put more of an emphasis on California at the expense of some other states where we once had more success (i.e Texas). The question for me is whether the emphasis on California recruiting has been worth it, and whether we could do things to improve our success rate out there. Just because we can get a prospect from California to Notre Dame doesn't mean that guy is going to be the right fit or a good player.

Three thoughts on this issue:

1) Transfers -- One thing that I've noticed since we really started recruiting heavily in California is how many of these California recruits ended up leaving ND before their careers were over.

Here are the recruits we've landed out of of California since 2002. I also included their star ranking from Rivals.com.

2002 - James Bonelli (4 star), Chris Frome (4 star), Derek Landri (4 star), Rhema McKnight (4 star)
2003 - Freddie Parish (4 star)
2004 - Anthony Vernaglia (4 star), Terrail Lambert (3 star), Brandon Nicolas (3 star), Darrin Bragg (2 star)
2005 - none
2006 - Konrad Reuland (4 star) and Will Yeatman (3 star)
2007 - Jimmy Clausen (5 star) and Taylor Dever (3 star)
2008 - Dayne Crist (5 star) , Joseph Fauria (4 star), and Anthony McDonald (4 star)
2009 - Shaq Evans (4 star) and Cierre Wood (4 star)

By my count, we've landed two 5 stars, eleven 4 stars, four 3 stars, and one 2 star (Darrin Bragg.....the Ty Willingham era! Where 2 stars happen). That puts us at a total of 18 recruits from California in the last eight years.

Of those 18 players, here's how I would break things down:

3 superstars -- Clausen, Landri, McKnight -------- All three guy were multi-year starters who received some sort of national recognition during their times at ND

1 potential star -- Crist ------------ Crist is looking at a 2-3 year run as the starting quarterback at ND and seems like a perfect fit for Kelly's offense

2 productive starters -- Frome and Lambert -- Solid starter types

2 likely contributors -- Evans and Wood -- Probably can expect these guys to at least be in the picture for playing time and possible stardom

2 unknown -- McDonald and Dever -- Neither has played a lick so far; Not sure where their careers are headed.

3 busts -- Vernaglia, Bonelli, Bragg -- Guys who just never panned out. Vernaglia was the one that really stung out of this group since he was pretty heralded out of high school.

5 transfers -- Reuland, Yeatman, Fauria, Parish, and Nicolas -- Some of the "transfers" were for disciplinary problems, but these five never really fit in.

That's not all bad of course. I'd say about half the guys that we've taken from California have turned out well for this program, and the high end guys like Clausen and Crist and Landri have been spectacular additions.

But doesn't that feel like quite a few transfers?? I'm going with purely anecdotal evidence here, but it seems like we have been swamped with transfers from California in the last few years. I don't know what the issue is, but are these Cali guys just not comfortable at ND?? Or do they miss family and friends when they end up all the way across the country??

We even heard quite a few rumors about Wood and Evans heading back to California due to homesickness. I'm glad that they are back, but it was a little unsettling that both of them were talking about leaving after one year. Especially Evans since he was actually playing this year.

I get it though. These guys are leaving southern California and the warm sunshine and their families for the Midwest. It's a completely different animal. Unless you've lived here for a long time, it's hard to get used to spending 6 months every year where you literally never see the sun. Compare that to the California lifestyle where the sun is shining almost every day.

With some of these California recruits, it seems like they come out to Indiana for their visit and think "oh, it's Notre Dame, the campus is beautiful, I'll like it here" and then they get to that first winter and don't like it for whatever reason. Suddenly, they're thinking about heading back to the west coast and going to UCLA or Stanford or wherever. That's the risk that we take with some of these California recruits. A kid who grew up in Chicago or Ohio or Pennsylvania or Michigan is not going to have that same culture shock when they get to ND, so we don't have to worry as much with them about possible transfers for "lifestyle reasons." They know what it's like to see gray skies and 6 inches of snow on the ground at all times and flat farmland and months at a time where you can't go outside for more than a couple minutes. I love the Midwest, but it can get depressing as the weather turns bad.

2) Style of play -- Even though we consider ourselves more of a national brand in terms of our reputation and profile, the reality is that we play the majority our games in the Midwest. Between our 7+ home games and 2-3 road games in the Midwest, we're basically playing 10-ish games a year in our home territory. If you're going to play three straight Big Ten teams in September every year, you better be ready to get down and play some rough and tumble, physical hard-hitting football. And as the weather gets colder in October and November, we want to make sure we have a team that can handle tougher conditions. That's the type of football we played under Holtz with the Zoriches and Hecks and Grunhards and Stonebreakers and Stams of the world. We had a physical Midwestern identity in those days. Even a lot of the skill talent like Rocket and Watters and Todd Lyght came from the Midwest. These guys were already familiar with the type of football that we needed to play to be successful against our competition.

That's the thing for me with some of these California guys. Again purely anecdotal here, but the Cali guys are used to playing in wide open high school leagues that are geared toward Pac 10 football. More of an emphasis on skill and speed than toughness and playing physical. That is the reputation Pac 10 players in general. Super-skilled and talented, but the "soft" reputation pops up from time to time. We saw it in the bowl games this year, especially with Nebraska shoving around Arizona like they were rag dolls.

Not every California recruit is unsuited for Midwestern football of course. Guys like Aaron Taylor and Derek Landri have been very successful in the trenches at ND through the years. But for a program that has developed a "soft" label in the Willingham and Weis eras, I can't help but wonder if we have skewed too heavily toward skilled players who dazzle with their talent but come up small in the toughness categories that are so critical in football, especially in the Midwest. When I see us getting shoved around by the BCs and MSUs of the world, I find myself wondering if we would be more successful if we had more grinders on the roster.

The other thing is that the emphasis in California seems to have come at the expense of recruiting in other areas where we have had success, such as Texas. Texas high school football is a lot more aligned with the type of football that we see here in the Midwest. I miss having guys like Tyreo Harrison and Gerome Sapp and Cedric Hilliard and Anthony Denman on our roster. Tough, hard-nosed Texans. I would not be opposed to making more of an effort to grabbing some Texas guys in the future even if it comes at the expense of some of our efforts in California.

3) What has gone right -- I don't necessarily have a problem with recruiting California players of course. You always want the best players that you can get on your roster no matter where they come from. There's obviously a lot of talent out there, and we are VERY lucky to have recruited guys like Jimmy Clausen and Dayne Crist out of California. Plus, it's not like USC hasn't found plenty of California guys who are capable of playing a physical brand of football.

So what can we do to make sure that we not only have more success finding the "right kind of guys" out in California, but also ensure that they are happy and productive when they get to ND?? I'd say two things:

1) Be up front with them about the lifestyle -- Even though I know there's a lot of B.S. that goes around in recruiting, I think we probably should make sure that these California guys understand what it is that they are getting themselves into. Don't gloss over the weather or the Midwest. I'd sit them down with other Cali guys, have them talk to Clausen and others who have done it, and really give them a good perspective on what it's like. If you only tell these guys the good things about ND and coming to Indiana, you're setting yourself up for a lot of transfers down the road. It's better to make sure we lay it all out there for these Cali guys. Otherwise, we're betting off sticking to players in the Midwest and places where guys will be familiar with life in the Midwest. It doesn't make any sense to recruit California players and then they're miserable as soon as winter hits.

And I think you can really emphasize the positives of living in the Midwest. There have to be some out there, right?? If these guys plan to play in the NFL someday, chances are they will not be living it up in the sunshine in California. More likely they'll be shoveling their driveways in places like Buffalo and Cleveland and Pittsburgh and Minnesota. You better get used to playing football in the Midwest if you want to have a good pro career. That diversity of experiences can be a selling point.

Look at Penn State and Ohio State for example. You can have a Midwest location and still be an attractive place to play college football. Even though it's cold and dreary in both places, those programs have developed reputations for sending players to the pros and being great places to settle even after college. We should be looking to emulate that model by developing a program that attracts players and also ensures that they will want to stay and benefit from their decision to come to ND.

2) More RKGs -- By RKG, I'm referring to guys who truly view ND as the right place for them. Guys like Te'o. ND is the perfect fit for him even though it's 80 degrees in Honolulu and probably 30 degrees in South Bend right now (although it's been downright balmy the last couple weeks). Te'o probably misses the weather, but the benefits of being at ND and the experiences that he is having at ND outweigh any lifestyle changes. Te'o "gets ND" and what it is all about.

If we're going after a west coast guy, we better make sure he's the type of guy who's going to be comfortable at ND. Do your due diligence on him and talk to his coaches and find out what his personality is like. If he seems like the type of guy who is "BMOC" back home in southern California with all his friends and family there, he might not be the right fit at ND over the long haul. It's an inexact science of course, but it's something we should be studying closely.

This is so important for these out-of-region players. We need to make sure that they are the types of people who will thrive at a place like ND. Because we don't use JUCOs or stash players in prep schools or play games with scholarships, we need to make sure we hit on as manyrecruits as possible. Losing a third of our California recruits to transfer doesn't really seem like a great success rate to me.

Anyway, that's my thought on California recruiting in general. It is potentially a great resource for this program and a hotbed of talent that we can access with our national brand, but also one where we have had a number of disappointments and heartbreak through the years. Although losing Anthony Barr was a bummer, he seemed like the type of guy who might not have thrived at ND anyway with all his support structures back home in California.

2) Tough break losing Leuders and Bernard in the the past couple days. Not that either was unexpected, but it leaves us in a difficult spot with only 10 days until signing day. It's not like we can just reach into the well and grab a 4 star RB and a 4 star defensive end in the next week. Then again, I'm never really going to jump up and down about losing a white defensive end prospect, so it's not like Leuders is irreplaceable. My guess is that he'll end up as a solid college player who makes a two deep rotation by his junior year and maybe starts as a senior. Good for depth purposes of course but a big haul in 2011 at DE can easily make up for losing him.

I have more thoughts on the overall makeup of the class that I'll throw down on here as we get close to signing day, but right now I'm just focused on the few targets that are out there on the board. Right now, we are sitting with 17 recruits and ranked #21 overall in the country on Rivals.com. I would anticipate that we'll bring in another 5-8 guys depending on how the chips fall. Gotta figure Massa is a lock, and we are in good position with Spond and James and maybe Iaone. It seems like a few other guys have popped up on the radar recently, and of course there are the big fish still out there (Riley, Henderson, Ferguson, Christian Jones). If we could land even one of those big dogs and lock in the majority of the other guys on our radar screen, that would be a nice finish to this class and hopefully get us back up in the #10-15 range in the final recruiting rankings.

Ultimately, Kelly will be judged in recruiting on what he does in 2011 and 2012. He has focused his efforts thus far on assembling his staff and going full throttle with the guys already on the roster, and it's hard to jump in this late in the game to land the big time players that have been getting courted by other schools for years. I didn't expect him to show up and start reeling in a bunch of five stars right away, especially given how bad this program has been in recent years. I think we will have a better view of his recruiting abilities at this time next year.

Kelly can change the game for ND by winning ballgames. If he does that, we will become a major destination place for recruits again in the near future.

1) Finally some NFL thoughts:

1) First, could there be a more overrated broadcasting tandem than Joe Buck and Troy Aikman?? I've never been one to really rip announcers, but Buck and Aikman come up small in big games more than any other duo in the game. Are these two really the best that Fox has to offer?? When was the last time either of those guys has really set the tone for water cooler conversation while doing a game?? The only time I can think of is Joe Buck's "What a disgusting act!" line when Randy Moss mooned the crowd in Green Bay, but that was more because people were mocking Joe Buck for getting so outraged about it. I've watched probably a hundred games called by Aikman and Buck through the years, and I can't remember one time where their performances during the broadcast were memorable or even relevant to my experience watching the game.

Classic example of Buck and Aikman coming up small was on that last Viking drive that led to the Favre interception. Where were Aikman and Buck pointing out the disastrous clock management by Brad Childress prior to the Favre pick?? They never mentioned it!! How could you miss that?? For me, that was the #1 story coming out of that game. The Vikes were on the march, and Childress inexplicably pulls the rug out on the drive with back to back running plays like they were already in field goal range. It was a 55 yard field goal!! What was he thinking??! He approached the end of that drive like they had a chip shot and just needed to run some clock down before attempting a field goal. Childress completely mismanaged that situation, and I think it put pressure on Favre to feel like he had to make a play to put them in better position for that field goal attempt. If they had stayed aggressive on first and second down, I think they easily could have gotten down to the 20 yard line or so before bringing out Longwell. It was unbelievably bad game management. Even if Favre hadn't throw that pick, Longwell was staring at a 55 yarder to win it. Not exactly a gimme.

And yet Buck and Aikman never mentioned it!! They were completely asleep at the wheel while it was going on. Imagine if that was Verne Lundquist and Gary Danielson doing that game. They would have been killing Childress for that, and rightly so. Same with Al Michaels or any great broadcaster. Buck and Aikman were completely overwhelmed by the moment and not paying attention.

I just have never seen what those two bring to the table. They don't have any sense of the moment, and the whole "I'm laid back, I refuse to get excited about anything" vibe from Joe Buck is annoying. It's the freaking NFC Championship game!! You're allowed to get excited and maybe get the viewers excited alongside of you. It's an overtime game with the Super Bowl on the line. Say something that I will want to tell my grandkids about. As corny as Nantz can be, at least Nantz adds to the experience for me when I'm watching a game. With Buck and Aikman, they are truly the definition of white noise.

2) I don't understand the "will he retire?" talk about Brett Favre. Why would he retire? The guy had a phenomenal season and played a great game up until that last interception. If you actually watched the game, there is no way you can conclude that Favre did not play a great game. They would not have even been in the game if it wasn't for Favre. He took some vicious shots and still hung in there and made some spectacular throws. I don't know how he is doing this, but Favre was a top 10 quarterback this year without question.

The Vikings did not lose that game because of Brett Favre. They lost because Peterson and Harvin and Berrian could not hold onto the football. If they didn't have all those fumbles, they would have won that game going away.

Favre should just come out in a couple weeks and announce that he will be back....in mid-August. We all know he doesn't want to do minicamps and training camp and all that, so there's no need to hide it. I can't believe I'm saying this, but I'd really like to see him come back next year. I enjoyed watching him in that NFC Championship game, and I'd like to see the Vikings make another run with Favre and all those weapons.

3) Speaking of the Vikings, I'm really bummed that they did not make the Super Bowl. Unreal how much talent they have. Their defensive line is so dominant it's not even funny. And with all those offensive weapons, it is amazing to watch them when they are clicking. The Vikes were constructed as the ultimate "big play" team, and they played like it. Guess the problem is that for every big play you might get out of Adrian Peterson or Harvin, you risk a big negative play on the downside. Still, their talent level is jaw-dropping, and it's a shame that they lost a game that they completely dominated in every category but turnovers.

I would have loved to have seen a Vikings-Colts Super Bowl. Favre vs. Manning with major legacy implications on the line. That powerful Vikings defensive line in a chess match with Manning. All those Vikings weapons on offense against a fast and aggressive Colts defense. It would have been a spectacular matchup and a game that really had me excited.

This Colts-Saints matchup just doesn't do it for me. The Saints are like the homeless man's version of the Colts. Their offense is good but not as good as advertised, and their defense is a sieve. I was not impressed at all with New Orleans even in victory. When you need 5 turnovers just to win that game in overtime at home while getting dominated in every statistical category, it feels like a massive fluke.

Lay the mortgage on the Colts -5.5 in two weeks as far as I'm concerned. I expect Manning to cruise to his 2nd ring.

4) As for Manning, the true testament of his greatness in my eyes is how he compares to two other elite guys like Brett Favre and Drew Brees. Both those guys were top 10 quarterbacks this year, but they look like chumps compared to Manning. After watching Manning in that first game against the Jets, it was jarring to see Brees missing throws and looking flustered in the pocket. I mean, this is Drew Brees. One of the best players in the game. And yet I found myself disappointed in his play all because I had just watched Manning carving up the Jets for three hours right before that.

Once Manning figured out their blitz packages, the Jets had no answer for him. One of the best performances by a quarterback I've ever seen.

Manning is going to torch the Saints secondary. Amazing player.

The Mouth of Kansas City

Terrific interview in the South Bend Tribune with former All-America and Pro Bowl lineman Tim Grunhard. He offers some of the most candid and accurate assessments of the Charlie Weis era that I've heard. Very encouraging to hear his goal is still to coach in South Bend when the time is right. Can't argue against his wise decision, opting not to bite at Charlie's dangled lure to join the staff as a grad assistant. Instead, he padded his coaching resume by winning the Kansas state title at Bishop Miege High School.

Grunhard offers a sensible insider take on why Charlie ultimately failed as a college coach:

I always felt like it was more of a pro feel to it than a college feel. That doesn’t sometimes work on the college level. I’ve been in both, and just with the terminology and just with the way the practice was run and the way that they were motivated, it seemed to me that he was treating those guys a little bit more like pro players than college players. And I think that was probably the biggest mistake he made.

Grunhard also offers some keen insight into whether Brian Kelly can rise to the challenge of restoring a winning tradition at ND:

I think that it’s a very interesting hire...This is a college guy...this is what he knows...I think that it’s a positive that you’ve got a guy in there who really knows what it takes to motivate, to get these young men to play in his system.

Kelly and his staff look at this Notre Dame job as reaching the pinnacle – like, ‘Hey we’ve got to where we wanted to go. We wanted to be at a major college football program and have an opportunity to win a national championship,’ and they’re there. “You know, maybe Charlie winning a Super Bowl…there’s something to be said about being hungry to prove yourself. Charlie already proved himself by the time he got to Notre Dame. These guys have an opportunity to do that.

Love where Grunhard is going with all of this, and love the parting potshot, though I don't think Charlie could've worked any harder. When you're not the solution, it doesn't matter how much you grind the wheels in the mud. Stuck is stuck. Kelly is just a better fit - for the college game, for motivating and developing young talent, for using the media and fan base to his advantage, for in-game coaching and adjustments.

I'm putting the over/under on years before Grunhard relocates to South Bend at 3.5 and taking the under. He'll be a welcome addition if/when that day comes.

Rumor Mill: UConn to the Big Ten??

Interesting possibility floated out there by Bill Livingston of the Cleveland Plain Dealer. He is hearing rumors about UConn to the Big Ten combined with a plan to ultimately expand to 14 teams. He suggests making a play for Missouri and Nebraska as part of that expansion deal.

To be honest, when we took a look awhile back at some of the Big Ten possibilities, UConn was a name that I had never considered.

I didn't think of them as a realistic possibility with their football program still in a developmental stage and because it seems like there are better options within the Big East (Pitt, Cuse, WVU, maybe even Louisville). But now that I think about it, I can at least see a case made for the Huskies.

1) Elite basketball program -- If you rattled off a list of the most successful basketball programs in the last twenty years, how long would it take for you to get to UConn?? 3-4 names?? I'd give you North Carolina, Duke, Kansas, maybe Michigan State, maybe Kentucky. That's basically it in my book. UConn has been the premier program in the Big East for a long time.

Think about all the players who have gone through UConn since Calhoun has been there. Rip Hamilton, Ray Allen, Emeka Okafor, Rudy Gay, Ben Gordon, Caron Butler, Charlie Villanueva, Hasheem Thabeet, and of course, Jake Voskuhl!! They crank out a lottery pick just about every year.

So if the Big Ten is looking for a powerhouse basketball program, UConn would be a great addition. They'd basically be raiding one of the "heavyweights" from the Big East and bringing them into the fold. You add UConn with Michigan State, Wisky, Purdue, OSU, Illinois, and a resurgent Indiana program, and that would be one strong conference from top to bottom.

Only question is what will happen with UConn basketball when Jim Calhoun eventually retires. He's already having health problems. Jim Calhoun singlehandedly built that program into what it is today. You could make an argument that he's one of the ten greatest college basketball coaches of all time. 2 National titles, 3 Final Fours, 2nd among active coaches in wins, 6th all time in wins. In terms of active coaches, the only guys I would definitively put ahead of him in terms of legacy would be Roy Williams, Coach K, Pitino, and Izzo. That's it for me.

If he retires, would that program remain strong?? Tough to say. They have built a brand name, but they have no history beyond Jim Calhoun. Recruits go to UConn to play for Jim Calhoun. But UConn has statewide support, and they spend the money on the program that you need to spend to be good. In that Big East spending ranking article that came out awhile back, UConn spends $6.7 million a year on their program, which puts them at 5th in the Big East (ND spends $4.3 million and ranks 12th...ugh).

I'm still tempted to say that Syracuse would be a better addition on the basketball front for the Big East. Syracuse annually ranks in the top 5 in attendance in college basketball and seems to be more of a national basketball brand than Connecticut. I don't know if it's Nike or the Carrier Dome or those orange uniforms or all the ESPN announcers who went to Syracuse or John Wallace singing "Cuse is in the house! Oh my god! Oh my god!" but there's just something about Syracuse basketball that gives them more of a national appeal. Then again, maybe that's just me.

The one thing that might push UConn over the top on the basketball front is their women's program. I can't really discount that. You're talking about the best women's program in the country with a rabid fanbase. UConn is one of the few women's programs that probably makes money for the school and can actually produce television ratings and things like that. If you put the UConn women on the Big Ten Network, you might actually get some viewers. Right now, I can't imagine anyone is watching women's hoops on the BTN.

2) A developing football program -- The biggest concern about adding UConn obviously would be on the football end. UConn has only been playing major college football since 2004, and this is their history since they've been in the Big East:

2004 - 8-4 (3-3)
2005 - 5-6 (2-5)
2006 - 4-8 (1-6)
2007 - 9-4 (5-2)
2008 - 8-5 (3-4)
2009 - 8-5 (3-4)

I mean, not exactly illustrious there. They've had one winning conference record in six years in the league. And their recruiting is bottom feeder quality. Looking back at their rankings in the last few years on Rivals.com, they've generally averaged around #75 in terms of recruiting rankings. In other words, you're adding another Purdue on paper.

With that said, UConn is building something in my opinion. I don't know what their ceiling is (especially since it's really tough to recruit with a limited in-state talent pool), but they are on the path toward becoming respectable. They beat Notre Dame and South Carolina this year, and they've produced quite a few NFL players in the last few years.

The other thing is that I think UConn as an athletic department is committed. They built a really nice football practice facility, and it seems like the financial commitment to winning is there. If UConn continues on the path they've been on, they could probably become a steady, middle-of-the-pack type team in the Big Ten.

Is that what the Big Ten is looking for?? I wouldn't think so, but maybe they'd view UConn as part of a larger expansion process. It would be risky though. If Edsall leaves and they make a bad hire, all their momentum could collapse and the program falls apart. When you're talking about a program with such little history, any disruption could derail the program. They are fighting for hearts and minds at this point, so a tough stretch could send people right back to ND or Penn State or whoever they were rooting for before UConn football became relevant.

And if the Big Ten adds UConn and the football program goes into the tank, it would be an absolute disaster when you consider some of the other options that they might have in terms of expansion. Suddenly, you're splitting all that tv money with a 4-8 UConn team. It's a risky bet on the football front.

3) Presence in New York City -- I keep hearing that the Big Ten is obsessed with this idea of capturing the New York City market for the Big Ten. Delaney and his crew seem to think that adding someone in the New York market would suddenly lead to huge dollars coming in, and I think their dream is get the Big Ten Network added on local cable in New York. Admittedly, from a financial perspective, if that actually happened (I'm dubious), it would open up a massive revenue stream for the league. If the BTN was on every cable network in the Tri State New York area, that network would be the biggest cash cow in college sports.

I just don't think the New York market cares about college football and certainly not enough to get the Big Ten Network added on a bunch of cable packages in NYC. Does anyone really think Cablevision is bending to the BTN's demands because some UConn fans want to watch their team play Iowa?? Child please. There would be zero demand for that in NYC. This is different from holding Time Warner hostage in the Midwest. When you don't show the Buckeyes in Columbus, Ohio, people are outraged and threatening to change cable companies. If you don't show UConn football in NYC, no one cares.

UConn basketball has support in the New York area, but football?? No way. They are barely on the radar. The only football program not currently in the Big Ten that would probably turn some heads in New York is Notre Dame if they were added. ND would move the needle. UConn is a niche following at best.

Put it this way, if I was the Big Ten, I would rather add a statewide Missouri or Nebraska fanbase over the sliver of NYC residents that pay attention to the Big Ten because UConn was in it. Give me 500,000 rabid Husker fans who are going to watch every program on the Big Ten Network and buy a million sweatshirts over the "casual fan" from NYC. Chasing after the casual fan doesn't work in college football. Instead, you want Husker fans crowding around the set to watch "Greatest Moments in Husker History" at 1am on the Big Ten Network.

The other thing is that the Big Ten is, at heart, a Midwestern league. Unless you're going to add a national brand like Notre Dame or Texas, I think the Big Ten should look to maintain their identity as a Midwestern brand. Adding UConn dilutes the Big Ten in terms of identity. And UConn will never be anything more than a mid-pack Big 10 team, so I don't see how they add any national cache to the league.

4) Would UConn be interested?? -- The final question is whether UConn would even be interested. I guess it's a no-brainer for UConn from a financial perspective with all the dollars that the Big Ten rakes in on national tv packages and from its own tv network, but what about from a competitive standpoint?? UConn has absolutely zero Midwestern ties. Would UConn fans be happy about playing the Iowas and Minnesotas of the world every week in basketball instead of Syracuse and Georgetown?? UConn has built up some big time rivalries in Big East basketball. Would they give all that up for the Big Ten??

And wouldn't it hurt their basketball recruiting?? Players growing up in NYC and Philly and Boston don't want to play boring, methodical Big Ten basketball. They grow up dreaming of playing in the Big East. And it's not like UConn would start showing up in Indianapolis and Chicago and Cleveland and Detroit and stealing players from the Big Ten schools. I think UConn would be jeopardizing their basketball image in the Big Ten.

Just seems like a strange fit. I don't really see a nexus between UConn and the Midwest. I've literally never met a UConn alum in all my years living in Ohio. And now suddenly they're going to start showing up regularly places like Iowa City and Champaign and West Lafayette?? I just can't see it.