The 2009 NBA Draft Revisited...And Other Basketball Thoughts

It’s the midpoint of the NBA season, and while Irish fans stew over Brian Kelly’s recruiting and enthusiasm turns to apathy over the ND basketball program, I figured it would be a good time to take a look back at the 2009 NBA Draft Lottery and make some evaluations. What, I can’t write about something other than Notre Dame football?

Full disclosure, I haven’t watched as much NBA action as I would have liked. Some of these guys I’ve watched on TV (thank you Time Warner for adding NBATV in HD for free!), but others like Tyreke Evans, I’m just going off of SportsCenter highlights and stats, because as far as I can tell the Kings are in the NBA’s version of the witness protection program.

I do know that Larry Brown has cemented his legacy as one of the best pure coaches ever, as in the history of basketball. If you don’t believe me, look at what he has done with the Charlotte Bobcats, who play in a morgue and have a GM who is more concerned with, well, just about everything than actually being a GM. Their best player is an undersized forward who is 7th in the league in rebounding (Gerald Wallace). Their leading scorer, who they willingly traded for, is a guy more known for a) brawling in the Palace, and b) shooting up a strip club parking lot (Stephen Jackson.) So yeah, Larry Brown has earned his paycheck by getting the Cats into the playoff picture. Living in the Charlotte area, myself and 14 other people have definitely caught Bobcat fever.

Ok, back to the draft. I figured I would give the stats of the guy (ppg / rpg / apg, unless otherwise noted), his bust potential going forward, and a reconfigured lottery looking back in hindsight.

1. LA Clippers – Blake Griffin – N/A
No brainer pick at the time and no way they could have known he would blow out his knee, try to come back, and have to shut it down for the whole season. The curse of the Clippers lives on!

Bust potential: Low, unless he can’t shake the injuries. He was too good in college too flame out this early.
The pick: Blake Griffin


2. Memphis : Hasheem Thabeet – 2.7 / 3.2 / 1.2 bpg
A pick that was universally panned at the time, and what do you know – it still was a crappy pick. Anyone who watched college basketball could see that Thabeet had no semblance of an offensive game. Anyone who watched pro basketball could see that the NBA was moving away from these big, clumsy, lumbering centers. Apparently the Grizz front office watched neither.

Bust potential: Through the roof. At this point, his ceiling is an Adonal Foyle type career if he’s lucky.
The pick: Tyreke Evans


3. Oklahoma City: James Harden – 9.9 / 3.3 / 2.2
I wasn’t high on this pick and I’m still not loving it, but it’s turned out ok for OKC. Harden will never be a star, which is ideally what you would want out of the #3 pick in the draft, but it filled a need and Harden looks like he has a long NBA career ahead of him as a 12-15 ppg scorer.

Bust Potential : Low, as talked about above
The pick: Brandon Jennings


4. Sacramento: Tyreke Evans – 20.8 / 5 / 5
Umm, not sure if everyone realizes this, but here was LeBron’s rookie line – 20.9 / 5.5 / 5.9. Tyreke Evans through half of a season is the equivalent of LeBron, and he’s doing it while playing the point. He’s already locked up the Rookie of the Year, and there is no question that he is a superstar in the making. The only question is whether he is a point or two guard going forward.

Bust potential: What’s the opposite of through the ceiling? Through the floor?
The pick: Stephen Curry


5. Minnesota: Ricky Rubio – N/A
Who knows what was really talked about between Rubio and the TWolves in the days leading up to the draft? I was buying into the Rubio hype, but if the kid said he wasn’t going to come and play in Minnesota, then maybe they should have moved on and let him be somebody else’s problem.

Bust Potential: Anybody’s guess. I’d like to see him in an NBA uniform before I make any proclamations
The pick: Jonny Flynn


6. Minnesota: Jonny Flynn – 14 / 2.4 / 4.2
I actually like this pick. I always liked Flynn’s game in college and so far it has translated relatively well to the pros. Not that it has actually helped the T-Wolves. Although Kevin Love is actually averaging a 15 and 12 (fourth in the league in rebounding) in case you were curious.

Bust potential: Small. I don’t think Flynn will ever be an All-Star, and his size is a little concerning, but I think he can be an effective point for a long time. Maybe like a TJ Ford type career.
The pick: James Harden


7. Golden State: Stephen Curry – 14 / 4 / 4.5
Curry has pretty quickly silenced the doubters that he was too small or that his game wouldn’t translate to the Association. Sure, it helps that he’s playing NellieBall, but facts are facts. Steph is shooting 43% from 3, and that will earn you a paycheck for a long time. Check out his 26-10-6 and 29-9-7 game from the last 5 games to see how effective he has been.

Bust Potential: None. If he is this proficient offensively as a rookie, there is no doubt he has a permanent place in the NBA. Of course his size will always be a liability defensively, but guards who average 20 a game, which is where I think Curry will end up, don’t grow on trees.
The pick: Ty Lawson


8. New York: Jordan Hill – 4.3 / 2.4 rpg
Wasn’t a huge fan of this pick at the time and obviously I’m guessing the Knicks and their fans aren’t big fans of this pick right now. In fact, his Arizona teammate Chase Budinger, who fell all the way to the middle of the second round, is enjoying a more productive rookie season so far.

Bust Potential: High. Mike Dantoni compared him to a young Amare at draft time. Today, he might be comparing him to a young Stromile Swift. Not great. Could still evolve into something, but really hasn’t shown much on a bad Knicks team.
The pick: Ricky Rubio – Who knows, maybe Rubio comes over to play at the World’s Most Famous Arena for 7 Seconds or Less Genius Mike Dantoni. In fact, yes, I believe that Rubio would have found a way out of his Euro contract to come play for the Knicks. Would playing with a young exciting point guard have been enough to lure LeBron away from Cleveland this summer? We’ll never know.


9. Toronto: Demar DeRozan – 8.2 / 3 / 1
Solid pick for the Raptors. DeRozan is the rare SG who doesn’t shoot 3’s (only 14 all year) but instead is more of a slasher. That fits in well with the Raptors who already have a bunch of 3 point bombers in Hedu and Bargnani. I think DeRozan could evolve into a solid player, maybe like an Andre Iguodala, down the road.

Bust Potential: Medium. You have to be able to shoot in the NBA, plain and simple. If DeRozan can work on his outside shot, he could be a star. Even if it never comes around, he’s a good enough athlete that he’ll make it.
The pick: DeRozan


10. Milwaukee: Brandon Jennings – 17.8 / 3.5 / 6.3
The Bucks straight up nailed this pick. The dreaded “character concerns” plagued Jennings leading up to the draft, but the Bucks obviously did their homework and when he fell into their laps they made the pick. Jennings was anointed the next big thing after his 50 point game, but he has struggled somewhat since then. Of course, it doesn’t help playing on a Michael Redd-less Bucks team. Even so, he is going to be a star in the league for a while. Think Steph Marbury in his prime (and that’s a compliment.)

Bust Potential: None
The pick: DeJaun Blair. With Jennings off the board, the Bucks might have looked to western Pennsylvania for a forward who inexplicably fell to the second round and into the hands of the savvy Spurs. Dejuan Blair – best pick of the draft.


11. New Jersey: Terrence Williams – 7 / 3.8 rpg
What does it say about Williams that he is only getting 20 mpg on a historically terrible Nets team while shooting a horrific 37%. I think it says that he fits into a category that I like to call the “jack – master” player. As in, jack of everything, master of nothing. Williams did a little bit of everything at Louisville, but could you ever really say that he did ONE thing at an NBA level. He was never a great shooter, never a prolific rebounder, and he was a good passer for a bigger guy but nothing that was incredible or anything. There have been a few of these “jack-master” players recently, and almost all of them just haven’t panned out. Corey Brewer (career line of 8-3-1). Julian Wright (career 4-2-1). Even a guy like Hakim Warrick has been a relative bust with a line of 10 points and 4 boards. Look around NBA rosters, and you’ll see plenty of jack-masters who were BMOC’s on campus but whose game just didn’t translate into the NBA.

Bottom line, if you’re not a natural scorer and you don’t do at least one thing really well, whether it’s shoot (Steve Novak, Jasaon Kapono, Kyle Korver), rebound (Paul Millsap, Reggie Evans) or penetrate and dish (Aaron Brooks, Lou Williams), it’s tough to carve out a productive career in the NBA.

Bust Potential: High
The pick: Austin Daye


12. Charlotte: Gerald Henderson – 2.7 / 1
Stop me if you’ve heard this before. The Bobcats get lazy in their scouting, let their marketing department make the pick, and draft an overrated local player WAY too early. They did it with Ray Felton, Sean May, and now Henderson, who is rotting on Larry Brown’s bench. This was just a dumb and wasted pick. Henderson obviously has the bloodlines, so I’m not willing to write him off yet, but right now he looks like he’ll join the lengthy list of Coach K NBA busts.

Bust Potential: High
The pick: Omri Casspi


13. Indiana: Tyler Hansbrough – 8.5 / 5 / 1
Larry Bird loves his white guys, and he took the best available one here in the lottery. They have to be the only NBA team that can throw out a whitewash lineup of Travis Diener, Mike Dunleavy, Hansbrough, Troy Murphy and Jeff Foster, with Josh McRoberts as the 6th man. Seriously, there can’t be any other NBA team that can make that claim. And Larry doesn’t mess around with those Euro’s. Give him red-blooded Americans. Unfortunately, the Pacers are 16-29 and 18.5 games out of first. Might be time to rethink that strategy, Legend.

Bust Potential: Low. Hansbrough will never be a star, but in a relatively weak draft class, getting a rotational big man here is ok.
The pick: Hansbrough.


14. Phoenix: Earl Clark – 3 / 1
Move along, nothing to see here, other than a big man shooting 38%. The Suns may be the worst drafting team of the decade. Other than Amare, they have either gotten nothing or dealt away their pick to save cash every year. Clark is another one of those “jack-master” players. Was never really blown away by him at Louisville.

Bust Potential: Higher than high
The pick: Taj Gibson


Some other NBA thoughts:
- It wouldn’t be an NBA column from me if I didn’t give a State of the Sixers address. I can sum up their organization right now in three words: Blow. It. Up. The whole things. Ed Stefanski, GM? Goodbye. Eddie Jordan, 1st year coach? See ya. Elton Brand, Sam Dalembert, Andre Iguodala? Thanks but no thanks. Build around Jrue Holiday, Thad Young, Marreese Speights. Maybe Lou Williams. Of course this plan is impossible because they gave horrendous contracts to Brand ($80 Million!!??) and Dalembert. My hope is that they can move one of those lead weight contracts at the deadline with Iggy, who actually has some value.

- How fast has Tracy McGrady fallen? Two years ago he averaged 22 points a game. Now he doesn’t even play and can’t stay healthy. He’s only 30, but it seems like an OLD 30.

- Guy about to make the leap to superstardom: Kevin Durant (shaping up to be a Bowie / Jordan draft, with the Blazers taking Oden. Although one has to wonder if Sam Bowie ever took pictures of his, ummm, manhood and posted it online). Durant is simply unbelievable this year, and he has elevated the whole OKC team from its former moribund state. In case you weren’t aware, he is 3rd in the league in scoring at 29.3, ahead of Kobe and D-Wade and behind only a few gentlemen by the name of Melo and LeBron.

- NBA Finals Prediction: Cavs – Lakers; Cavs in 6

A few college thoughts:
-I’ve seen Kentucky play a few times and overall have been pretty impressed. But let me say this. Even though he is averaging a 16-10, I would be extra leery of drafting DeMarcus Cousins. He is just a bad body language, bad character, bad teammate type player. I just keep thinking of Michael Beasley, who has been nothing but trouble for the Heat. Maybe I’m wrong, but those type of guys usually end up being more trouble than their worth. I’m fully prepared to eat my words next year, but that’s how I see it right now. I would go with Derrick Favors from GT, who is averaging a 12 and 9, over Cousins.

- I love John Wall. I think Derrick Rose was better.

- There is a place for Andy Rautins in the NBA.

- I saw Greivis Vasquez come through Winston-Salem a few weeks ago and was pretty impressed. He is not being touted as a big NBA prospect, but I think he is a real sleeper. He is a 6’6 point guard who has been through the rigors of the ACC for 4 years. This year, he’s averaging 17- 4.5- 6 apg, and doesn’t have a whole lot of talent with him right now on the Maryland roster. Plus he’s shooting 38% from 3.

- Guy I’m not sold on who makes NBA scouts and Chad Ford’s heart melt: Greg Monroe.

- Guy who I’m sold on who NBA scouts may not be: Jarvis Varnado from Mississippi State. A few things translate really well to the NBA, but maybe nothing more than rebounding and shot blocking. And Varnado does both of those as well or better than anybody in the country. But you can’t just be a Hasheem Thabeet, you have to have some offensive game, and Varnado does. Plus he’s a lot quicker than Thabeet.

- My favorite player to watch this year, and I’m biased because I got to the same fine institution as he does, is Ish Smith from Wake Forest. So quick with the ball in his hands, such a good passer, and a much improved shooter. He is going to make somebody very happy with a second round pick next year. Check out a Wake game if you can at some point this year.

- For my money, the best team I’ve seen this year is Syracuse. The zone is just suffocating people this year, and they have a great combination of shooters and big guys, plus talent off the bench with Scoop Jardine and Kris Joseph.

- My Final Four picks as of right now: Syracuse, Kentucky, Villanova, Michigan State. Not very original, but I think there is a real lack of marquee teams out there right now.

- Finally, I’ll justify the existence of this 3000 words on an ND blog by offering a few quick hitters on ND basketball:

o I don’t know who to blame, Mike Brey or the administration, but I know somebody has to be at blame for the current state of the program.

o You’re telling me we can’t have two questionable students walking around campus. Two out of 8,000? That’s all it would take to make our program a contender. Throw in, let’s say a Damion James and a Wes Johnson with TJ, Abro and Gody and now we’re talking. Not to say that those types of players would even come to ND, but at least let Brey make a run at some of these guys. If a guy comes out of Catholic school in NYC or North Jersey, they are ND material in my eyes.

o There’s not much else to say. We are good enough at home to occasionally win a big game like West Virginia (although even that felt like a loss the way we almost blew it), but the real measure of the talent on hand is more indicative of the UConn, Syracuse and Nova game are a better measure of our place in the Big East right now.


Coming soon (within the next 365 days): A Look Back at the 2008 NBA Draft

Rumblings and Grumblings

Since there's a lot going on in the sports world lately, let's run through a list of things of my mind. With apologies in advance to Jayson Stark, here we go.

- Has anyone at ESPN ever considered the possibility that the Packers genuinely think that Aaron Rodgers is better than Brett Favre?? Why does no one bring up that possibility?? Everyone talks about grudges and all this other stuff, but no one mentions football. Every analyst I've heard starts their discussion on Brett Favre by assuming that the Packers have a better chance to win with Favre at the helm than with Aaron Rodgers.

Do we know that to be true?? Isn't this the same Brett Favre who completely stunk for about 3-4 years prior to last year?? Isn't it entirely possible that the Packers think last year was a fluke and don't want to trot him out there again with their Super Bowl-caliber team?? Favre was AWFUL in the NFC Championship game, and it's not like he's getting any younger. In 2006, he had the lowest completion percentage of his career and threw 18 picks. In 2005, Favre threw 29 picks. 29!!

People are acting like the Packers are trying to trade Brett Favre in his prime or something. The guy is 38 years old and looked like he was mentally done after that NFC Championship game.

Look, I don't discount the fact that the Packers were tired of Favre's retirement/unretirement act and wanted to move on from all that, but I also wouldn't be surprised if they just think Rodgers has a better chance to lead this team back to the playoffs. They've watched Rodgers in practice for the last few years, and maybe they think he's ready to be the man.

Anyway, sorry to bring up Favre right out of the chute because I am as tired of hearing about it as anyone, but I felt like no one has addressed the possibility that the Packers made this move from a competitive standpoint.

- This article about Lebron James possibly leaving for Europe to play for $50 million a year really doesn't reflect all that well on LBJ if you ask me. If he actually left the NBA to play in some garbage Euro league just so he could market himself better and promote his image as a "global icon," then he officially would cease to be a relevant figure in American sport. He would be the David Beckham of basketball. In other words, a complete sham.

Europe?? Seriously, Lebron?? You're actually listening to Russian league offers just to promote your "brand"?? Are you a basketball player or a billboard?? I hope to god that he is not actually considering the idea of playing in Europe.

I get that Lebron wants to make money (everyone does), but I am surprised that he would value the dollars over things like....ummm...perhaps winning an NBA Championship?? An MVP award?? Becoming an all-time great?? If Lebron wants to truly be a "global icon," he could start by winning an NBA championship. He can make plenty of money in the NBA.

As far as Lebron's future with the Cavs, could the Cavs possibly have done less this offseason?? They've literally done nothing other than resigning Daniel Gibson. Ouch. Danny Ferry, ladies and gentlemen. I don't know what that guy has to do to lose his job. If Lebron wasn't on that team, they'd be one of the 2-3 worst teams in the NBA.

- Put me down as someone who likes the NFL's new policy on stadium conduct. Maybe I sound like a prude, but the fan behavior in NFL stadiums has really taken a bad turn in the last 5-10 years. I went to just about every Bengal home game in the 90s (yes, it was depressing), and it was generally pretty family friendly and a nice Sunday afternoon type of crowd. In many ways, it was similar to what you would see at most college stadiums today (families, professional people, very little fighting or trash talk other than maybe for a Steelers game). There was usually some light tailgating around the stadium, but it was fairly low key and mostly friendly. Even if you went down to the game with some buddies, you were really going for the game itself. Maybe you have a couple beers, but nothing too crazy on a Sunday.

Fast forward to my recent trips to Bengal games, and it is like a whole different experience. Constant fights breaking out, all kinds of trash talking and obscene language, people who are passed out at the games and getting hauled off to a drunk tank, and even crazy drunken women getting into it. NFL games have turned into a white trash family reunion. I've only seen it in Cincinnati, but it's been happening at stadiums around the country. The NFL has morphed into a very "adult" league when you see it live almost to the point where it would be really uncomfortable to bring your family to a game. NFL fans have gotten out of hand, and I think it was hurting the live experience at NFL games.

Again, we're talking about a Sunday afternoon. A Sunday! Nothing wrong with going out and partying it up on a Friday or a Saturday, but is it really necessary to get completely bombed out of your mind at 10 am on a Sunday, get into a fight with some opposing fan you don't even know, and get arrested?? Do these people have jobs?? How do they function on Monday morning at work when they are being hauled off to a drunk tank on Sunday evening??

I like Goodell's new policy, and I think it was needed. Goodell is a very bold commish, but he really seems to have a good feel for changes that are needed. I like what he did with the draft to cut down on pick times (although I'd rather go back to a noon start), and I like the player conduct rules. He must have been getting reports from around the league about bad fan behavior, and decided it was time to take a corrective action. I think it's a great move.

- Moving on to the Olympics, it is very cool to see that former "Lost Boy of Sudan" Lopez Lomong is going to be carrying the US flag at the Opening Ceremonies. If you haven't heard his story and subscribe to HBO, I would recommend the Real Sports segment that was done on him. It is great stuff, and he is an easy person to root for.

- As far as the Olympic hoops are concerned, (taking off my American flag lapel pin for a minute), here is the team I'd love to see in the 2008 Summer Olympics.

PG - Ty Lawson
SG - Wayne Ellington
SF - Jerel McNeal
PF - Tyler Hansborough
C - Hasheem Thabeet

Bench - Sam Young, Sherron Collins, Darren Collison, Scottie Reynolds,
Gerald Henderson, Luke Harangody, Earl Clark, AJ Abrams, Tyler Smith

Give me the amateurs, and I would happily cheer them on to a bronze medal. Never been a fan of the "pros in the Olympics" thing. They talk the talk about being excited, but it has always felt contrived to me. The college guys would be legitimately fired up and play their hearts out for the name on the front of the jersey. And if you wanted to add some spice to it, then include the draft eligible guys and insert Rose, Beasley, Mayo, etc in there.

Until then, my support for US basketball is pretty tepid at best, and I'm not going to lie that I will probably hop on the bandwagon of some random Euro or South American team. I think the US team is focused this year and likely to dominate with their renewed commitment to Olympic basketball under Coach K, but it still feels like an excuse to market NBA players in a corporate setting if you ask me. And the same thing applies for me when it comes to that half-baked golf match they put on every other September (if I have to root for someone, I'm pulling for Lee Westwood to carry "us" to another title at Valhalla).

- Just go ahead and put some no-name down on the Wannamaker Trophy right now for this week's PGA Champion. This tournament has a Rich Beem/Shaun Micheel type winner written all over it. Either that or a Euro who plays this course like it's Carnoustie. It sounds like "The Monster" at Oakland Hills is going to be impossible with the 238 yard par 3 17th hole and 498 yard par 4 18th hole to finish things up. Considering that the last major championship winner at Oakland Hills was Steve Jones at the 1996 US Open, I don't have my hopes up for a great champion coming out of this tournament. Anthony Kim fans, there's always next year.

- Finally, let's end with a great article from Monday's Indianpolis Star about the rise of high school football in the state of Indiana. Very interesting stuff about how popular high school football has become in this hoops crazy state in the post-Peyton Manning era. I hope it's true because it would be good for ND, IU, and Purdue football (I suppose we need Purdue to be good so that our schedules look better in future years).

What do you think Indiana natives?? Is the Hoosier State becoming a football state?? It would seem hard to believe.

Beasley vs. Rose

Interesting start to the NBA summer league last night with the Beasley-Rose match up. I know it's just summer league, but it's interesting that Beasley was far and away the best player on the floor. I was a proponent of drafting Rose and wasn't all that in love with Beasley as a player, but it will be fun to see how this debate plays out.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?page=080707orlsummerleaguemiachi&lpos=spotlight&lid=tab2pos1

Just to get him on the record, here's my brother's email from a couple weeks ago about the draft. I'm not saying that I endorse his view on the Beasley-Rose debate, but it got me thinking a little bit. Just some food for thought. He is the only person who I respect as a sports fan who has gone on the record in favor of taking Beasley, so he could be in line for some serious bragging rights if his prediction pans out. Needless to say, he was feeling pretty good this morning and stands by his statement that the Bulls blew the draft. We shall see!

Here's the email:

"As far as the picks, I'm starting to think the Bulls really blew it. I think Rose is going to be a good player but Beasley is just an absolute man child. You can just put it in stone that Beasley is going to be an 8 time all-star. Rose probably will be too but point guards in the NBA are always a gamble. I don't think Rose is a good passer either. Chris Paul is so good because he pushes the ball and sees the floor better than anyone in the league. Rose is more of a scorer but he's only 6'3 so I don't think he'll be able to get to the rim as easily as he did in college. Put it on the prediction board that I think the Bulls will regret that pick. Everyone is point guard crazy because of what Paul and Deron Williams have done but I just don't think Rose is that kind of player.

Anyway, those were my thoughts. I also think that O.J. Mayo will be out of the league in 4 years, Joe Alexander might end up being the best player in the draft (best post-pick interview I've ever seen by the way. Check it out on youtube if it's available. Confident guy who just boldy says "I can't WAIT to get there and get started". Love that guy), and the Blazers are going to absolutely destroy everyone in the league for the next 10 years. What a draft."

Is there a Draft in here?

Always fun to get a little NBA Draft talk going. One of my favorite events of the year. Looking forward to tonight's festivities.

While I love the draft, I find the Draft coverage to sometimes be less than satisfying. Right around this time of the year, we start getting bombarded with various mock drafts on websites and our local newspaper. Am I the only one who doesn't understand the love affair with mock drafts?? What is the point of doing a mock NBA Draft when there are probably going to be 4-5 trades within first 15 picks?? Isn't the NBA Draft more about the players than it is about the teams?? I'm more intrigued by players and and comparing them to former NBA guys and trying to figure out how they are going to fit into the league during their careers. I'd rather just read Chad Ford's unplugged takes on various draft prospects than whether he thinks the Sonics are going to take Brook Lopez or Russell Westbrook. Plus, I'm more of a college guy than an NBA guy, so I'd rather hear about the players than the teams.

So in the spirit of that idea, I figured that I would just throw out some thoughts on the 2008 draft class.

Derrick Rose - In my mind, the only picks tonight where the team is more intriguing than the players are the Bulls and the Knicks. More importantly, assuming that the Bulls draft Derrick Rose tonight, does that pick make the Bulls the team to beat for the next decade in the East?? Do they need to do anything else or can they just ride a core of Rose, Gordon, Deng, Nocioni, Noah, Ty Thomas to the Finals?? Are the Bulls going to trade Hinrich?? I love the Rose pick for the Bulls, but I'm not sure where this move ultimately takes them. It definitely makes them a contender, but do they need anything else?? Seems like they need to package some things together to get a low post scorer.

Michael Beasley - Here was Matt's take on Michael Beasley:

"He seems like the guy who is putting up 20 and 10 for a team that is going 24-58"

Doesn't that pretty much sum up everyone's feelings on Michael Beasley?? Isn't that exactly why Pat Riley wants no part of Michael Beasley?? Beasley would have been a perfect fit in the late 90s when all these "stats first" type guys were going in the top 5. I know Beasley has the physical skills (and admittedly Beasley is a rebounding machine and finishes well around the bucket) to put up numbers in the league, but I can't see making that guy the face of my franchise. Nothing about him screams out "winner" to me, and isn't that what it's all about??Beasley has been pointing out that the "bad character" label is unfair, but haven't we seen so many Michael Beasleys in the past that we kind of know what to expect out of this guy?? He's only 19 years old, and he was already showing visible signs of the typical "bad character" guy during the college season. Sullen demeanor, gets upset at his teammates, lazy approach to defense. He's one of those guys who will be spending the next ten years playing for contracts. That's not the kind of guy I would want on my team.

OJ Mayo - Probably the most controversial player in the draft, and the one player that everyone disagrees on. Some people love him and insist that he's a star in the making, and other people aren't high on him at all. I'm officially torn on OJ Mayo. My first instinct on OJ Mayo was that he's inherently a selfish player and not a natural point guard. I had him pegged for the Steve Francis/Stephon Marbury/Dejuan Wanger/Larry Hughes category of shoot first guys that put up stats but don't make their teammates better and ultimately don't play for winning teams.

Starting to come around on him a little bit though. The talk from people who know the game would be to put him in this "super two" position where he can be a playmaker from the wing and get to the bucket, shoot from the perimeter, and lock people up. That seems like a potentially great fit for his game.

I'm admittedly a little biased against OJ Mayo from knowing too much about his history in high school in Cincinnati and all the shady stuff he has pulled, so I'm not inclined to root for OJ Mayo in the league. I could see him being successful from a pure basketball standpoint, but it would be one of those Stackhouse/Spreewell type careers where he bounces around the league putting up numbers and then eventually falls into a key role on a good team. That would be a good career for Mayo, but would that be a good scenario for the T-wolves picking at #3?? He doesn't seem like he's going to be one of those "12 year career with the same team" kinda guys, which is one of the biggest reasons why I'd shy away from him. If you're the Wolves (or even Seattle/OKC), aren't you looking for a long term guy with your #3/#4 pick?? Simmons and Chad Ford love him for Seattle, but is OJ Mayo going to be able to deal with not being the man there?? Plus, with all his handlers and posse members, you just KNOW that OJ Mayo is going to break the record for most "NBA player wants a new contract" Sportscenter stories. I'd put the over/under on his career at 75,000 "OJ Mayo wants a new deal" or "OJ Mayo unhappy with his contract" lead headlines on ESPN.com. I'm already dreading the idea of seeing those stories, and it hasn't even happened yet!! I agree that Mayo might be the most talented player in the draft, but I just wouldn't want any part of drafting him.

Kevin Love - Here's another guy who is sparking a considerable amount of debate among basketball fans. I'll be the first to admit that white big men usually get a "guilty until proven innocent" reaction out of me. My first instinct with all white big men is that they are a bust unless they prove to me that they are for real. How many white big men get drafted in the lottery every year?? At least 1 or 2, right?? And how many of those guys have actually panned out?? Maybe a half dozen at the most?? Go through some of the names. Spencer Hawes, Luke Jackson, Robert Swift, Kris Humphries (I'm counting him as white), Nick Collison, Michael Bradley, Chris Mihm, Joel Przybilla, Jason Collier and on and on. The white big man has like a 90% bust rate. It's one of the safest bet in sports.

If that's what we're working with here, why do I like Kevin Love?? Not sure. He just seems like a different brand than your typical stiff white big man who comes out of college with like two basic skills (rebound, layups). Love has all kinds of abilities. He can shoot from the perimeter, he has moves in the low post, he crashes the boards like crazy, he's an elite passer for a big man, and he has a high basketball IQ. Matt started throwing out the "white Elton Brand" talk, which could be a good comparison.

I'm a little concerned that Love got neutralized by Joey Dorsey in the Final Four game, but I'd rather have him over a lot of guys in this draft. You know that you're a getting a productive player. There are a lot of busts out there this year, so give me a Brad Miller type player in the late part of the top 10.

Eric Gordon - Now would be a great time to bring in Ravi for a 5,000 word post on Eric Gordon followed by two walks around the block, but I'll just shoot from the hip here. If you look up his comparisons, the names "Mitch Richmond" and "rich man's Ben Gordon" are what you'll see. Interesting.

I agree with Ravi and others that Gordon is going to score points in the NBA. He doesn't look like a freak athlete, but you could make a case that he is. He just finds ways to bulldoze into the lane and draw contact (often finding a way to finish on the way to the free throw line).

My biggest concern about Gordon is that he doesn't have a natural position in the NBA. Can he play the point?? He had the ball in his hands a lot last year, but it wasn't like he was in charge of getting the team into the offense. He's probably not a 1, but can he be a 2?? Is Gordon going to be able to guard 2 guards at 6'3"? I'm a little concerned about that.

Can't get myself to pull the trigger either way on Gordon. I see him putting up numbers, but I don't see him as a franchise guy. This draft is nuts. I could go either way on just about every guy.


Brook Lopez - Keeping with the theme of the draft, some people love this guy (Jay Bilas), and other do not like him at all (Chad Ford apparently). I can't get excited about Brook Lopez. Maybe he'll turn out to be a nice player, but he's a Stanford guy! Cmon, you KNOW he's soft and that he's going to get abused defensively. Even if he turns out ok, Lopez isn't making your team any better. He's just a pick for the sake of taking a pick. Honestly, I actually like the other Lopez (Robin) a little more in some ways. He'll be an Anderson Varejao energy guy in the league. He's not as polished, but I could see him being one of those guys who comes off the bench for a good team to give them boards and putbacks.

The Kansas guys (Arthur, Chalmers, Rush) - Figured I would address all the Kansas guys collectively since they have always sort of been synonomous with one another. I personally like Brandon Rush the most out of the three, and I would love to see him fall to the Cavs in this draft. As long as he has his head on straight, he seems like a perfect fit for the new NBA - someone who can hit shots, run the floor, and lock people up. He seems like one of those Ron Harper type guys who will be a good fit on the wing.

I agree with Simmons on Chalmers. I like Chalmers, but not in the lottery. Isn't he your classic tweener?? Those guys rarely go on to flourish in the NBA. If you're going to be an NBA point guard, you better be a great ballhandler. He doesn't fit in that category for me.

Don't like Arthur at all. Just go back and look at his scoring numbers in the NCAAs, and that's all you need to know. 17, 9, 7, 7, 6, 20. When he brings it, he can be a stud. But if a guy is inconsistent in college, what do you think he's going to be in the NBA when he's making big dollars?? I wouldn't touch him.

Roy Hibbert - As a Big East fan, I feel like I had a lot of opportunities to watch Roy Hibbert play through the years. I watched him dominate Notre Dame many times, and he did have a good career at Georgetown. But do I like him as an NBA prospect?? Ehh.

To be honest, I liked him more last year than I do this year. It seemed like he regressed or something this year. Hibbert has some qualities that you like (pretty good halfcourt defender, good low post moves, great size, intelligent), but he's a stiff!! He has practically zero athleticism. If he was white, he'd be a 2nd rounder. People are romanticizing Roy Hibbert a little bit because he's a Georgetown center, but this guy is not Mourning or Ewing. He's not even Mutombo. Hibbert doesn't have the athleticism to be a good NBA rebounder, and he's not a good fit in the new up-tempo NBA.

People are talking about Hibbert for the Cavs, which makes absolutely no sense to me. Isn't his best case scenario to be another Zydrunas Ilgauskas?? Why do the Cavs want another Big Z?? I could understand taking Hibbert if the Cavs' only need was a backup center, but it's clearly not their only need. The Cavs need a complete overhaul of their backcourt, and taking Hibbert doesn't help them at all.

I think Hibbert has value in this draft and you obviously can't teach size, but I really don't see him as anything other than a backup center. That's not a bad piece to have, but I'm not that excited about Hibbert.

Joe Alexander - Bob Huggins apologist alert! I don't know what to make of Alexander as a pro prospect, but I do like that he spent a year working with Huggins. Huggins was probably a good fit for Alexander because he toughened him up and probably made him a better overall defender. If Alexander wants to succeed in the league, he'll need both those elements.

I watched Alexander probably 5-6 times last year and still don't know what to make of him. The first time I watched him was against ND last season, and I didn't like the guy at all. We totally took him out of the game, he was forcing up bad shots, and he seemed like sort of a selfish player. I sort of wrote him off until watching him late in the year. By then, he was like a completely different player. Suddenly, he was unguardable and could get his shot off from anywhere. I don't know if Alexander is for real, but check out his stats in his last 10 games or so last year. Pretty impressive.

Alexander is another one of those guys who I could go either way on. I feel like he'll probably be a bust or at least an overvalued player, but he has enough talent and production in his history to make me intrigued by him. And like it or not, Huggins has a pretty good track record of developing people into decent NBA players. The fact that Jason Maxiell is currently in the Pistons' 8 man rotation is remarkable to me. I felt like Maxiell could make it in the NBA, but it's still hard to believe that a 6'5" guy with no ballhandling skills is doing as well as he is.

Kosta Koufos - On a scale of 1 to 10 for biggest shockers, the sentence "Kosta Koufos is moving into lottery consideration" ranks at around a 60. I watched this guy for 30+ games last year, and I can tell you point blank that Kosta Koufos is not even close to ready for the NBA. I think he's got bust written all over him, but I'll give a fair breakdown of his game. Koufos has an array of post moves that can make him look impressive at times, but he's so soft that he's hardly ever in position to score down low. As soon as you put him up against the big guys in the Big 10, he'd shy away from the paint and rely on his perimeter game. For a guy with his size, it's remarkable that Koufos almost never got to the free throw line. Koufos is highly skilled, a good shooter, and actually not as bad a passer as people think he is (it doesn't help when no one can catch your passes), but I can't shake the fact that he's too much of a European style player to make it in the NBA. You gotta be able to defend a position in the league, and there isn't one that he will be able to defend at any point in his career.

He has upside, but I just don't see him as a "safe" lottery pick at all. His ceiling as an NBA player is probably as a Toni Kukoc type guy, but he also has major bust potential if he's too soft to hang in the league. I also wonder about his competitiveness in general. He has kind of a blank demeanor, and gives off a "need to get mine first" vibe on the court. Even though he was often the most skilled player on the court last year, he very rarely had much interest in dominating a game.

With that said, I think I'm a little harsh on him because I'm a Thad Matta fan and was a little stung that Koufos left early. I don't blame him for leaving one bit (what person is going to turn down millions of dollars??), but I would have loved to have seen him in a Buckeye uniform for another year.

In Koufos' defense, he really came on towards the end of the year and was arguably dominant in the NIT Tournament. If you look at some of his stats down the stretch, there is reason to think that he was starting to "get it" and use his size to score in bunches. Every time OSU needed a big bucket, he was knocking down a shot.

Chris Douglas-Roberts - You know who I like and I don't understand why he's so low: CHRIS DOUGLAS-ROBERTS!! I love CDR. I think he's the biggest steal in the draft. I don't care what his shooting stats are or his "measurables". He's one of those guys who just knows how to score and do things to help his team win and has a great basketball IQ. Rose was great, but CDR was always the guy who was quietly scoring points and getting boards for Memphis. Is there any doubt that he'll be a top 8 guy on agood team in 5 years?? I think he's going to have a Tayshaun Prince/Rip Hamilton type career. Maybe not quite that good, but a good player. I'd take him in the top 20 and feel great about it.

Sleepers - Donte Greene, Josh Duncan, DJ White - Just a quick comment on these guys. Greene got out of Syracuse at the right time as far as I'm concerned for one reason: no more Jim Boeheim. Jim Boeheim has quietly jumped the shark as a college coach, and it's becoming obvious that he really doesn't have the best system for making players better any more. The media hasn't caught onto the fact that teams routinely shred the "vaunted' Syracuse zone. The Syracuse style of basketball breeds laziness, and I think it actually would have hurt Greene to stick around at Syracuse. He definitely has some ability, and could be a big time sleeper in the Thaddeus Young mold. Get to the league and start learning how to play man to man defense. The NBA has become much more of a professional league in recent years in terms of guys playing hard and playing defense, and it wouldn't have benefited Greene to stick around in a program that doesn't teach those concepts any more.

I figure this blog has to throw in a plug for Cincinnati Moeller High School graduate and Xavier University graduate Josh Duncan. Xavier is a big man pipeline!! Brian Grant, David West, James Posey, Aaron Williams, Tyrone Hill. Pretty much every good forward to come out of Xavier has had a good NBA career. I think Duncan can make it in the NBA.

And call me a Big Ten homer (I swear, Steve Lavin and Brent Musberger are not ghost writing this post), but I also like DJ White as a second round sleeper. White is a competitor, and there's always a few underrated second round guys that stick around in the league. He's probably a little undersized, but half the battle in the NBA is just playing hard. If you give a darn, you'll probably turn out ok in the NBA. White plays hard and he's a good rebounder/interior scorer. He can have a decent career in the league if you ask me.

Ok, that's all I got. Enjoy the draft. Those mustard colored suits are always great.