July 10, 2009

Jack Swarbrick plays the "crazy alums" card. Uh oh

It's not often that the current Athletic Director at Notre Dame directly throws his customers under the bus, so I figured that it might be a good idea to take a closer look at what Swarbrick said in his interview with Blue and Gold Illustrated. Apparently Jack Swarbrick is starting to embrace the idea that ND alums are "internet crazies."

I don't have a problem with everything he says, so let's start with something that I can live with: his comments on the 2009 schedule. Here is the relevant text from what he said on this year's schedule.

“So, for people that think (the schedule) is easier, I can’t find the easier in the schedule. I’m not sure where they’re looking because I think it is going to be a very challenging schedule this year.”

“No one knows who will emerge in any season to have a vastly improved team that you couldn’t have anticipated. But the other thing is, when I look at those schools, I see a whole host of factors which suggest to me there are going to be some great teams there.”


These comments on the 2009 schedule have raised some eyebrows on the blogs and message boards, but I don't really have a problem with Swarbrick trying to defend the schedule. It's his job. It's not like Swarbrick is going to bash the schedule in an interview. That would be on the front page of ESPN.com within about five minutes, and the talking heads would be pointing to it with a "See! I told you ND has a weak schedule! Even their own AD admits it!" attitude. No need for that firestorm to erupt.

Swarbrick has an obligation as a representative of the school to defend the school. When you are a spokesman, you're paid to put the best spin out there that you can. If there's one guy who is obligated to defend the ND schedule in 2009, it's probably gotta be Swarbrick.

With that said, I hope to God that Swarbrick doesn't really believe that. Let's start with the first quote where he said "I can't find the easier in the schedule."

Ummm, that's just silly. Look at some of the schedules we have played in recent years.

2006 - Penn State, Michigan, UCLA, USC; 5 road games

2007 - Georgia Tech, Penn State, Michigan, UCLA, USC; 5 road games

That's a typical Notre Dame schedule. 3 games against "heavyweight" schools, 5+ road games, and usually 1-2 unique games against mid-tier teams that we don't normally play (Georgia Tech, UCLA). No one looked at the 2006 or 2007 schedule before the season and said that our schedule was soft. When you have that many quality names on the schedule, you are all but guaranteed to get at least 2-3 big time games against top 10-20ish teams.

This year's schedule doesn't have any of those characteristics. There are 4 road games, only two "heavyweights," and only one game that I would classify as a quality mid-tier opponent (Washington). In other words, we took away one game from each of those three categories. The net result is a schedule where we are probably only going to play one ranked team all year (USC).

What other teams is Swarbrick projecting to be a "great team" as he says in his second quote?? What is his definition of a "great team"?? A 7 win squad?? An Alamo Bowl participant?

I really would like to know who these other "great teams" are besides USC. Nevada?? Please. They're a mid-major with 250 pound linemen. Michigan?? Great team to have on the schedule, but a great team this year?? With a freshman QB?? Michigan State?? Can you really classify them as a "great team" when they are AT BEST a middle of the pack Big Ten team and got housed by Ohio State and Penn State last year?? Boston College?? Even though they are completely rebuilding and have a new coach?? A Stanford team that lost 7 games last year? A Pitt team that is coached by Dave Wannstedt?? A Purdue team that might not win more than 3 games this year?? A Washington State team that won one game last year??

Maybe it's UCONN!!!! That budding power out of the Northeast! It's not their fault that they had a losing record in the Big East, got destroyed at home by WVU and Pitt, and needed overtime to beat Temple. By golly, they are going to be a "great team" this year because Jack Swarbrick says so.

There isn't one team out there on this schedule besides USC who is going to be a 10 win type team and finish in the top 15. Put that in pen. Even if we win 10 games with this schedule, we're going to get ZERO respect from the college football world. Beating Pitt and UConn doesn't really deliver the same type of respect that beating LSU or Georgia would have delivered. We've been chirping about this for years, but the 2009 schedule is a direct reflection of Kevin White's dumb scheduling policies.

This is not a "great schedule." If Swarbrick thinks this is a great schedule, he needs to look at Georgia's schedule with a full slate of SEC powerhouses plus OOC games with Oklahoma State, Arizona State, and Georgia Tech. He needs to look at USC's schedule where they play 9 PAC 10 games and road games at Ohio State and Notre Dame. He could even look at Miami (FL)'s schedule where they play the full ACC slate plus Oklahoma. Miami is probably going to play 4-5 ranked teams this year. Those are tough schedules. Our schedule is a combination of bad Big East teams, bad Pac 10 teams, and mediocre Big 10 teams.

And all you need to know about what people think of this schedule is right there in the ticket lottery results that were released this week. There are all sorts of facts and figures out there about how little money ND had to return to fans this year because most of the ticket requests were filled. Yes, they can blame the economy, but the story goes much deeper than that. The schedule absolutely had something to do with it.

A quick story on how light the demand was this year for tickets. My wife forgot to put her $100 donation in this year before the December 31 deadline that allows you to apply for football tickets. Kind of a bummer at the time since it was nice to have two lottery applications going into the pool. Anyway, we sort of forgot about it until someone from ND contacted her in the early spring to ask if she wanted to contribute her $100 to ND. The incentive was that they would even apply it retroactively to allow her to enter the 2009 football lottery. When has that ever happened for ND tickets?? Those puppies used to be like gold, and I can't imagine that we would have had that same option back in the day when ND tickets were in high demand. If you didn't put your $100 in, you were out of luck. No ifs, ands, or buts. This year, apparently you could just send in your money at your convenience.

Anyway, she applied for 4-5 games (including a couple road games) and won all of them! That has never happened before in any other year. We figured she would probably get 1 game as a token, and it turned out that she pretty much had the pick of the litter. At the risk of sounding like a punk, we have TOO MANY tickets to ND home games this year. We were just hoping to win a game or two, and now we practically have season tickets with 4 tickets to almost all of the home games. Honest to god, if anyone out there is looking for tickets to some games, please send us an email to the address linked to the right.

And not to keep picking on them, but did ANYONE apply for UConn tickets this year?? I mean, ANYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYONE???? I honestly have not seen one mention of someone applying for or "winning" tickets to that UConn game. I know we have that faux "sellout streak" going, but there is no way that game is sold out. No chance. Can you imagine the crowd that we'll get for that game?? It's scheduled for November 24, and I'm guessing it will be about 15 degrees with some level of snow or other nasty precipitation. You honestly couldn't pay me to go to that game. If you gave me front row seats, a hotel, and free drinks at The Backer all night, I'd still turn it down. Imagine if ND has another down year, and we have a 6-4 ND team going up against a 5-5 UConn team. My god, there are high schools here in Ohio that will probably have bigger attendance than what we would see in South Bend that weekend.

This is why you don't load up your schedule with UConns, especially late in the year. I don't know what Kevin White expected, but apparently he thought he could just roll the balls out there with any old lousy Big East program and that people would just show up with no questions asked. Sort of the Wrigley Field effect. White assumed ND fans were a bunch of lap dogs who would come running to South Bend just to see the gold helmets and the Dome and that it didn't matter who we were playing.

Apparently our fanbase is starting to draw the line. There was zero demand for tickets this year. I think people looked at their ticket lottery applications and decided not to bother. The home schedule is the worst I've ever seen. Even if you want to go to a game, you can probably buy one for face value up in South Bend on the day of the game.

Now let me ask our readers if that would have changed if we had Alabama on the schedule in late November instead of UConn. And instead of playing that bogus game against Wazzou (which I am admittedly attending....just call me a hypocrite right now!!), let's say we were starting a home and home series with Clemson with the Tigers coming to South Bend this year. Think there might be some demand for those two ballgames?? I think so!!

Unfortunately, Swarbrick states in his interview that he supports this Kevin White model of scheduling. Here's his quote.

“I do embrace it. It does two things I really like,” Swarbrick said of the White’s schedule model. “It maximizes home games and it allows us to have, during the regular season, essentially a special event, almost a bowl-game like experience. It’s good for our student athletes. It’s great for the university to promote itself in another market, so I love those two aspects of what Kevin has set in motion.”

As I've said in the past, I don't necessarily have a problem with Kevin White's model for scheduling (7-4-1, neutral site), but the execution under White was an abomination. The only way that model works is if you get rid of the Big East partnerships and the Stanford series and the Purdue series. Heck, you don't even need to do all that. You just need to take at least one or two of those things off the plate in a given year. And if you're going to do a neutral site game, it's better to use that as a chip in a negotiation with a heavyweight for a 1-1-1 series. If you do that, it leaves you with room for 7 home games, plenty of room for another heavyweight, and enough room for a neutral site game. Suddenly a bad idea can be a great idea. Here would be a great model for a couple schedules in fact.

AIR FORCE (one off home game)
at Michigan (H&H)
MICHIGAN STATE (H&H)
at Colorado (H&H)
TCU (one off home game)
USC (H&H)
BOSTON COLLEGE (2 for 1 H&H)
CLEMSON (neutral site -Georgia Dome - 1-1-1)
at Pitt (1-1-1)
NAVY (H&H)
ALABAMA (H&H)
at Stanford (2 for 1 H&H)

HAWAII (one off home game)
MICHIGAN (H&H)
at Michigan State (H&H)
UTAH (one off home game)
COLORADO (H&H)
STANFORD (H&H or 2 for 1)
at Alabama (H&H)
PITT (neutral site -- Giants Stadium - 1-1-1)
CLEMSON (1-1-1)
at Navy (neutral site)
PURDUE (3 for 1 H&H)
at USC (H&H)

Check those bad boys out!! This isn't rocket science. That took me five minutes. Those are two pretty sweet schedules that fit within a 7-4-1 format that still preserve most of ND's traditional opponents. It modifies the terms of our Purdue and Pitt relationships, uses the neutral site to get a great new matchup with Clemson, it adds a HEAVYWEIGHT in Alabama for a home and home, and it makes the home schedule dramatically better. Suddenly, the first schedule would add Alabama and a neutral site game with Clemson that would be very attractive. The second schedule would add Clemson at home and an incredible road trip to Tuscaloosa. Plus, it wouldn't be an impossible schedule by any means. It would be comparable to what the SEC/ACC/Big 12/USC types are playing, and a good ND team would do very well against it.

Memo to Jack Swarbrick, put together a quality schedule and the fans will be there rocking and rolling. Load up the schedule with UConns and "long term partners" and bad neutral site games, and you'll be scrambling to find people like my wife to give a donation three months after the deadline so that you can beg her to take a couple tickets off your hands.

And that brings me back to Jack Swarbrick. Ahhh, Big Jack. A guy I have so many high hopes for. For the most part, I have been a Swarbrick supporter, but this quote doesn't sit well with me AT ALL. This is the kind of quote that you'd see from John Heisler or Kevin White, but I was hoping that Swarbrick would change that type of thinking.

“Our fans would like to see us play a top-10 team every week. Well, top-10 teams aren’t going to come on a non home-and-home basis. Top 30 teams aren’t going to come on a non home-and-home basis. And so you have to balance those things…It’s much harder than I might have thought prior to sitting down and trying to fill in those blanks.”

KABOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM. Uh oh. Bombshell. Swarbrick just played the "crazy alums" card. He went straight to the John Heisler playbook to come up with that one. Heck, Heisler might have even written that line for him.

What a load of crap. Nothing like tossing out an absurd "straw man" like "our fans want to play a top 10 team every week." You can't beat it!! You know Swarbrick has been spending too much time in the ND athletic department when he's dropping that kind of line. What happened to Jack "Anytime, Anywhere" Swarbrick who was talking about playing Miami and Bama and Texas?? Now, he's out there throwing his paying customers under the bus for having the audacity to demand a couple half decent home games. How dare us for not wanting to go to a UConn game??!? Shame on us ND fans!!

Well Jack, as one of those "crazy alums," here's my response.

Here is a list of all the people among the ND fanbase that want to play top 10 teams every week.
















WHAT A LIST!! Look at that spectacular list of ZERO PEOPLE who want to play a slate of Florida, Texas, OU, Miami, Michigan, USC, Georgia, Auburn, Ohio State, Penn State, Tennessee, and Florida State. All those wacky alums and their crazy demands. Look at them! What a joke those people are! Boo! I hate those guys! Ungrateful bastards.

Again, Jack, NO ONE wants to play 12 top 10 teams a year. NO ONE. NO ONE is advocating for that. People want a balanced schedule that passes the look test. A few easy games, a few medium games, and a few games against traditional powerhouses. But you go ahead there with your straw man and tell the world that the crazy alums want 12 powerhouses a year. Keep up the great work.

Let's take a closer look at what he had to say in the rest of that paragraph, specifically the stuff about top 10 and top 30 teams not wanting to play us on a non home and home basis. I ask you this question. WHY DO WE HAVE TO PLAY THOSE SCHOOLS ON A NON-HOME AND HOME BASIS???!!? Where is that in the ND scheduling manifesto?? Please point out to me where it says that we aren't allowed to play Alabama in a home and home series?? Are we in a conference that I don't know about?? Aren't we an independent?? Can't we do whatever we want?? ISN'T THAT THE WHOLE POINT OF BEING AN INDEPENDENT??

On what grounds would we have to ask Georgia or Alabama to play us on the road with no return game?? Aren't they better football programs than us right now with rabid fanbases?? Don't they have any other number of options for compelling nonconference games?? Why would we dictate the terms to either of those schools?? If they were to come to South Bend, why couldn't we go down to Tuscaloosa or Athens to play them??

There is nothing more annoying to me than a phony, and that's what Swarbrick sounds like in this interview. Everything he says in that last paragraph is completely disingenuous. He's setting up terms for other schools that no one would agree to, and then blaming other schools for not wanting to agree to them. And then he blames the fans for setting up "unreasonable expectations" that actually are quite reasonable.

This whole interview is insulting to the intelligence of any Notre Dame football fan. You could go back five years and hear the EXACT same words out of the mouth of Kevin White and John Heisler. About how there was no room for heavyweights, about how we can't get better home and homes, and how "crazy alums" want unrealistic schedules.

This is concerning to me. I have been holding out hope that Swarbrick was different, but this sounds like the same garbage that I've been hearing from the suits at ND for a decade. He's only been at ND for a year, and he's already speaking from the Heisler/White playbook. Instead of a guy who was going to bring ND back from the brink with compelling and exciting schedules, he sounds like a guy who wants to preserve the status quo.

Meanwhile, ND Stadium is going to be half full for multiple home games this year, and we're playing a schedule where 10 wins probably won't even get us into the top 10. I think that tells you all you need to know.

The more things change, the more they stay the same.

July 07, 2009

Is ND turning into Samoan U?? And Tommy Rees is Irish

Has Charlie Weis been reading our blog??

Perhaps Brian Polian has been checking us out the last few months.

Ok, maybe not, but ever since we started singing the praises of the Samoan football player on this blog, ND has suddenly become a major player in the LDS/Samoan/Polynesian community. We went from zero Samoans to three commitments in the last year now that Justin Utopo has committed.

Are there are any guarantees with these guys?? No, of course not. Te’o may be the next Junior Seau or the next Carlos Pierre-Antoine. Roby Toma may be the next TJ Houshmandzadeh or he may never see the field. Justin Utopo may turn into the next Haloti Ngata or just another guy wallowing away on the ND bench. Maybe they’ll turn out to be busts. But you can say that about any recruit.

All I know is that it seems like every one of these Polynesian guys ends up being a stud for these random Pac 10 and WAC schools. How many times have you turned on some Oregon-Arizona game on Fox Sports and watched all these long-haired Samoans blowing up plays left and right on the d-line?? I don’t know what it is about these Samoan players, but they seem to be uniquely suited for football. At the risk of sounding like Reggie White (I love treading into racial generalizations!!), the Samoan guys LOVE football and love to play the physical brand of football that you need up front on your offensive and defensive lines. I don’t know if it’s the hair or what, but they love to mix it up and get dirty on the lines.

Check out this list of all the Samoan guys in the NFL. Look at how many offensive and defensive linemen there are on there. And that’s just a list of the Samoan guys. There are also a number of Tongan and Hawaiian and Fijan players as well.

For those who watched the Sugar Bowl this past year, think back to that game for a minute. To me, the most fascinating development in that game was that Utah looked like they had similar talent to Alabama. How is that possible?? The answer was those big Samoan dudes they had on the d-line. Those guys completely shut down the Alabama running game. The Samoan players have become the great equalizer in college football. If you can’t get the big stud black dudes from SEC country, you might be able to make up the talent gap by getting these Samoan guys.

So for those who are worried that Utopo is “only” a 3 star recruit, I encourage you to take a look at his film and do some more research on these Samoan players. I’d be willing to bet that a lot of the Samoan guys currently playing in the NFL were underrated coming out of high school as well. A lot of these kids probably didn’t go to all the best high school football camps to get their star ratings up, but they know how to play ball. The height thing is something that always knocks your star rating down as well, but height is overrated on the d-line. Give me a 6’2” guy who is going to snap you in half over a 6’5” guy who is soft.

I’m going on record here and saying that Utopo will turn out to be absolute steal for the Irish. Of all the guys we’ve signed so far, I think Utopo is the player I am second most excited about at this point. Mark that one down alongside last week’s guarantee that Chris Martin ends up in an Irish uniform. I don’t know if Utopo will be a DE or an undersized DT, but I'm confident that he’ll be a physical player who likes to get after it. That’s the type of player that ND needs on the d-line. I kind of like him more as an undersized DT. If he could put on 20-25 pounds, he could be a devastating 4-3 defensive tackle. I’ve watched Domato Peko blossom with the Bengals as an undersized 4-3 DT the last couple years, so I’m envisioning something similar for Utopo.

On a more global level, you have to like what Brian Polian is doing out in California. I have nothing to base this opinion on, but my guess is that Brian Polian is VERY intelligent (probably like his father). He seems to have a great feel for recruiting and trends in the game, and it is encouraging that he has immediately picked up on the growing prevalence of Samoan players in the NFL and major college football.

---As for Tommy Rees, I don’t see what the big fuss is about signing this guy. I don’t necessarily think we needed two quarterbacks in this class, but I don’t have a beef with it. Rees is for depth purposes in case Clausen leaves after this year. After Clausen leaves, the only scholarship QBs are Crist and Hendrix. Rees can come in and compete to be a backup. It’s not like every guy we bring in at LB or OL or DB is going to start either, so I don’t see the problem with the decision to target a backup quarterback. You can't sign all 4 and 5 stars, especially at quarterback.

I also think Weis wants to keep his options open for 2011 to go get a big time 5 star qb. If he had signed another 4 star guy this year, it might scare off the big name guys in 2011 because of all the quality guys already on the depth chart. So this move to bring in Rees is sort of a balancing act to create some needed depth without jeopardizing our chances on an elite quarterback next year.

I know we're on a little run of 3 star guys, but the average star ranking is still pretty high for this class. It's currently the 9th ranked class in the country. If we look good to start the year, we'll probably end up with a top 5 class.

It's too early to hit the panic button. Aren't we planning to sign 20+ guys this year?? We only have 11 spots locked up so far. Everyone gets all worked up every year about recruiting, and then it ends up being fine. As of now, we have plenty of room for the big name guys, and all of the big names that we want are still out there. Now, if Barr and James and Stone and all these guys start going elsewhere, then I will agree that we have problems. I'm not drawing any conclusions on this class until we get some decisions out of the big name guys.

This looks like a pretty typical Weis class - good QB recruit, stud TE recruit, a couple good WR recruits, and some white DBs who will probably be solid. We got our stud DE (which was huge) and one good lineman (Lombard). Gotta get at least 2 more big uglies (James/Stone/Linder) and hopefully 1-2 big time athletes (Barr, Prater, etc), and a linebacker (Moore). If we do that, it will be a good class. Maybe we can turn Nix or a couple other guys to ND if we start off well and then it would be a great class. If we don't get those guys, it's probably a sign that the season didn't go that well. In that case, we have bigger problems anyway.

For comparison’s sake, Michigan badly needed a big time recruiting class, and their class looks like garbage compared to ours. They have 2 and 3 stars all over their commit list. Would you rather be in their position or in our current position?

July 06, 2009

ND hoops update: Big East schedule is released and Inglesby is on board

Two big pieces of news coming out of the ND basketball offices this week, so let’s jump to it. It’s always a good time to talk a little ND basketball.

1) First, the Big East has released all of the conference schedules for the upcoming season, so let’s take a peek at ND’s conference schedule.

Home: Cincy, UConn, USF, DePaul, Pitt, Providence, St. John's, Syracuse, WVU

Away: Cincy, UConn, USF, Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Rutgers, Seton Hall, Villanova

The two-fer games are going to be against Cincinnati, UConn, and South Florida. Not really a bad draw right there with two games against USF and two games against a flaky Cincinnati team. UConn will be tough of course, but this two-fer setup is much more favorable than last year’s schedule with Connecticut, Louisville, and St. Johns. We went from hoping to get a split of those 6 games (I believe we went 2-4 against those three) to realistically hoping to win at least 4 out of 6 this year. That two game swing could be enough to put this team in the NCAAs.

As for the rest of the conference schedule, the home schedule looks very manageable. I don’t look at any of these home games as unwinnable. Pitt is down, Syracuse is down, and there are several teams on there that are dregs. UConn and WVU will be tough games, but there is no reason this team can’t win AT LEAST 7 games at home in league play with a distinct possibility that we’ll win all of these games.

Think about this home schedule compared to what we faced last year. We played UConn at home last year when they were #1, Marquette when they were undefeated at the time and ranked in the top 10, Louisville when they were a top 5 team, and Villanova when they were peaking down the stretch. Last year’s home schedule was brutal.

The road schedule does look difficult though. Georgetown is going to be much better next year, UConn is still loaded, Freedom Hall is always a brutal place to play, Marquette has always been tough at home, and Villanova looks like the class of the conference in 2009. That’s five games that are going to be awfully tough to win. Plus, Cincy could be tougher next year, and you never know about those road games at Seton Hall and Rutgers.

When you look at that road schedule, we're going to have to scrape and claw just to get 4-5 wins. It would not shock me if we go like 3-6 on the road in the league next year. Heck, we went 2-7 on the road last year.

All in all, the schedule is pretty manageable in league play, and it sounds like we are going to have a very soft nonconference schedule. On paper, this team can easily win 10-11 games in the league (if not more), win 20+ games, and go back to the NCAA Tournament. Guess we'll see how it plays out.

2) The other big announcement this week involved a reshuffling of the ND coaching staff with Sean Kearney taking the head coaching position at Holy Cross and Martin Inglesby sliding into a full time assistant position.

I’m sort of conflicted on this announcement. On the one hand, I don’t have a problem at all with adding Martin Inglesby to the ND coaching staff. I’ve heard some great things about him as a coach and as a recruiter. He’s a young guy, a class act in every way, and he’s an alum who had a very good career at ND. Brey coached Inglesby and hired him as Director of Basketball Operations, so it's safe to say that Brey knows what Inglesby can bring to the table.

If he is really an up and comer in the world of coaching, I think it’s a good thing to have a little coaching tree of ND people. Look at how many assistants Coach K has trained over the years. It enhances the reputation of your program. For all we know, Martin Inglesby will put in 4-5 years at ND, move on to become a head coach at a small school (LaSalle?), move up the ladder, and someday put himself in position to be a candidate for the head coaching job at ND.

The trouble here for me is that the Inglesby hire sends a message to the fanbase that Brey really didn’t feel much pressure in the offseason to shake things up in the coaching staff. Hiring Inglesby is an act of embracing the status quo. Nothing against Inglesby, but I was hoping Brey would really go out and find a top assistant as his bench coach. I thought we were going to go out and get a Gene Cross to really ride this team going into 2009.

I like having Inglesby on the staff as an up and comer, but it just feels like nothing has changed from last year. Inglesby is not going to be the kinda guy to shake up the program in his very first year as an assistant coach. Maybe he’ll help with recruiting down the road, but that might not reap any benefits for a few years. This program needed a jolt in 2009 and didn’t really get it.

It feels like there is a disconnect between Brey’s perception of his program and the fans’ perception of the program. The fans think Brey is hanging by a string, and Brey seems to be acting like he’s got lifetime tenure to do whatever he wants. Where is the sense of urgency?? We’re coming off a terrible year where we missed the NCAA Tournament with a preseason top 10 team, and Brey basically made the decision to stand pat.

Believe it or not, Brey is about to head into his 10th season this year. At some point, you are what you are. Mike Brey is a good coach, but he seems content with where the program is today. A middle of the pack Big East program. He really doesn’t seem to have any desire to shake things up or make a big push in recruiting to try to take this program to another level. Say what you want about Charlie Weis, but at least he has gone out and tried to bring in the best assistants he could get. Weis recruits like a guy who wants to bring a championship to Notre Dame. He might not be a great coach, but I think his goals are extremely high (as they should be). Brey runs this program like he’d be happy to go 9-9 in the Big East and bow out in the 1st round of the NCAA.

I have been a Brey supporter for many years and have been patient with his efforts to build the program, but at some point you want to see more results. The bottom line is that our basketball program has not been able to make any sort of consistent push toward the front of the Big East. Brey has coached 5 NCAA teams, 4 NIT teams, and has been to one Sweet 16 in nine years. Plus, we’ve been knocked out of the Big East Tournament early just about every year in his tenure.

Then there’s the recruiting. It’s not horrible, but it’s not great either. I like Atkins, but the talent we're bringing in is no better than the talent we already have. NIT/NCAA bubble type talent.

Maybe the money is tighter with the hoops program than it is with the football program. Maybe Brey went to the administration and asked for $500,000 to go out and hire a top notch assistant coach. Maybe that request got rejected. Maybe Brey’s recruiting budget is relatively small. Maybe Brey has found some talented prospects who were interested in ND, but the admissions people wouldn’t approve them for scholarship offers. I don’t discount that some of the problems with the basketball program go higher than the head coaching office. As we have seen with the football program, the ND administration can’t seem to get out of its own way at times and may be holding Brey back from taking this program to the next level. If so, that's gotta be fixed.

Still, there has to be some level of accountability, and it usually starts with the head coach. If we miss the tourney this year, Brey has to face the music. It’s Harangody’s senior year, the Big East is down, and we’re setting up a very favorable schedule. If he can’t make the tournament this year, he has to be held responsible for not making the adjustments in his staff to get this team ready for 2009. And if we are in the position where we are looking for a new coach, Swarbrick has to make an all out effort to get a good coach and make the necessary changes to pump as many resources as possible into the basketball program. If not, we’ll be right back in this position five years from now with the same issues.

I do think this team will bounce back to some degree and make the NCAA Tournament, but I do worry that the basketball program is in a bit of a malaise under Coach Brey. I am certainly not as optimistic about the future of the program as I was going into the 2008-09 season.

July 01, 2009

An Early Look At Some ND betting lines

Vegas has already posted some interesting lines for a few prominent games on the ND schedule next year. I like reading Phil Steele and all the preview magazines, but I'm always curious to see how we stack up in the sportsbooks. The handicappers out there usually have a pretty good read on things.

Check these out courtesy of the Golden Nugget. As always, for entertainment purposes only!

Nevada
Notre Dame -17

ND -3.5
Michigan

Michigan State
ND -7.5

USC -10
ND

BC
ND -7

ND
Pitt -1

Obviously, these are subject to change, but I am SHOCKED by a few of these lines.

Nevada - Starting with the Nevada game, I know Nevada is a similar team to the Hawaii team that we ran off the field last year, but that 17 number looks extremely high for that opening game. I honestly thought the line for the Nevada game was going to be something like -6.5 with a lot of people betting Nevada on the moneyline.

Could I see us blowing them out?? Yes, no question. The formula is going to be very similar to Hawaii. Blow their doors open offensively with the aerial attack and get a ton of pressure on Kaepernick with aggressive blitz packages. If that happened, we could easily jump out on them 21-3 in the second quarter and cruise to an easy cover.

But man, I've seen us look shaky so many times in recent years that I'm a little leery of that line. Isn't it equally likely that we'll be trailing 21-20 midway through the 3rd quarter while the team looks lifeless on the sideline and every fan in the stadium is in a full-fledged panic?? My feeling on a betting line is that you shouldn't be a 17 point favorite when there's a legitimate possibility that you might lose the game.

Anyway, I could see us covering the -17, but that line seems a little high.

Michigan - The Michigan line is also interesting because I'm surprised that the line is so low. Considering that we beat Michigan by 18 points last year, I didn't think that the line would only be 3.5 right now.

I'm trying to decide if Michigan is getting a ton of respect here or if we are getting too little respect. If the consensus is that ND is poised to win 9-10 games next year, what does that mean Vegas thinks Michigan will do?? Do they think they are a 7-8 win team even with a freshman quarterback??

I know the game is at the Big House and that you generally throw out the records and past results in the ND-Michigan game, but I thought this line would in the 6-7 range for now with the possibility that it would drop to 3.5 if Michigan looked good in the opening game. Having it at 3.5 for now lends me to believe that it could conceivably drift towards a pick em game by kickoff.

If you are feeling good about that game for the Irish, you might want to jump on that bet now.

Michigan State - Another pretty high line at home for us against a program that has given us fits for years. I know MSU is rebuilding, but I'm expecting that game to be a war yet again this year.

USC - No big shock that we're a double digit dog to USC even though the game is in South Bend. We didn't get a first down until the 3rd quarter last year against them and looked like a high school team for the most part. I think we were around 13-14 point underdogs in the 2005 game as well, so it's not like this is the first time we've ever been a double digit underdog at home to USC before. What was the line right before kickoff in that 2005 game?? 13.5??

I think we're going to have a good team this year, but even I don't think we'll have a USC-caliber squad. Could we beat them at home?? Absolutely we could. USC always goes through a midseason swoon, and it could easily happen when they show up in South Bend in October. But they're still USC, and they are pretty much double digit favorites against everyone they play. If USC shows up with their "A" game, we could easily get blown out even at home.

Honestly, I hope this line stays around 10 all the way up until game time. I would rather go into the game as a huge dog and use it as motivation for that game. Maybe USC will show up a little flat while we are sky high looking to make a statement to the nation.

If USC is undefeated coming into South Bend and ND is undefeated as well, it will be interesting to see what the line is. I could see it dropping into the 6-7 range, but could also see it staying at 10. If it's still at 10, pencil me in for betting on the Irish. And pencil me in for camping out for College Gameday!!

BC - 7 points seems about right considering all the personnel losses BC has had. Still makes me nervous though coming off an emotional game with USC and our history against BC in recent years. I can't remember the last time we actually played well against BC.

Pitt - Whoa! Where is all the respect for Pitt coming from?? I didn't expect to see us as a dog to anyone but USC as we head into the season. Did the Golden Nugget miss the memo that Shady McCoy is no longer a Pitt Panther?? I know we lost to them last year, but Pitt has lost quite a few talented players. Maybe there's a lot more confidence in Dave Wannstedt than I thought.

That's another game that looks like a great betting opportunity now if you think the Irish are poised for a big season.

So there's an early look at the Vegas odds for now. Judging by their early odds, I'd say they are pretty bullish on the Irish this year with the caveat that we could slip up to someone like Michigan or Pitt if we don't come out ready to play. Sounds about right to me.

June 30, 2009

Would LSU (or any other big time program) have tossed Joseph Fauria??

Lots of rumors out there on this Joseph Fauria transfer, but what would this site be without rumors, innuendo, over-generalizations, stereotypes, and sweeping conclusions based on nothing more than a little hearsay! That's the foundation for this site. If this site had existed when Paul Hornung said that "Notre Dame doesn't recruit the black athlete" line, I think I would have spent the next month breaking that down. So these Fauria rumors seem to be right in our wheelhouse.

Anyway, the word on the street is that Fauria got tossed from ND for getting a little too carried away during a Zahm Hall bun run. I'm guessing that he may have flashed his business at another student who didn't care for that type of behavior and reported it to Res Life. Yada, yada, yada, and now he's gone from ND for the football season and has decided to transfer.

Here's my question for our readers. If this type of incident had occurred at a football factor like LSU or Ohio State or Auburn, would Fauria have been thrown out of school??

I think the answer is pretty obvious here. NO!! Are you kidding me?? Not only would Fauria not have been thrown out of school, the girl who reported him probably would have been expelled for even trying to get him in trouble!! Something along the lines of "conduct unbecoming of an LSU football fan." You don't just throw an LSU football player under the bus without suffering the consequences!

In all seriousness, I have no doubt that this type of incident would have merited nothing more than a slap on the wrist at almost any other big time football school. There is a guy currently on the Ohio State roster who has a FELONY DRUG POSSESSION case pending, and I don't even think he's going to get suspended. Fauria didn't even get arrested. No academic issues either. For a bun run, he got tossed from school. He wouldn't have even missed a down of playing time at any other big time football school. It would have been swept under the rug like it never even happened.

Is this what our fanbase wants?? Do we want our athletes constantly getting tripped up by these administrators in the Dome?? Do we want the Res Life types handing out suspensions left and right for offenses that would be considered minor infractions at any other school??

This type of stuff is one of the reasons why I firmly believe that the problems with Notre Dame football go much higher than the head coach position. It's hard for me to get all bent out of shape about Charlie Weis when the school practically goes out of its way to hold the program back. At every other school, the focus is on FOOTBALL. Recruits go to LSU or Bama or Florida to play football, work out, watch film, and win games. The administration isn't going to get in your way as long as you win games and players aren't out there doing lines of coke on the field and beating up their women after the game.

At ND, the focus seems to be on everything other than football. In loco parentis. ND is breathing down the necks of our athletes, and they have proven time and time again that they will hammer them for every little thing that goes wrong. Why can't the football coaches handle these issues internally?? Why does everything have to be sent up to the adminstrative types that can't wait to come down hard on an athlete?? Couldn't Charlie Weis have made Fauria do some running or miss a couple games as a punishment?? Why does this type of infraction have to lead to him getting thrown out of school??

We've now had two tight ends (Fauria and Yeatman) kicked off the team and out of school for relatively minor infractions. And both these guys may have contributed to the team this year. As we have seen in Weis' four years at ND, he likes to use the tight end in his offense. He goes two tight ends quite a bit, and now we're basically down to two scholarship tight ends on the roster. If someone gets hurt or Ragone doesn't hold up, Weis can't use that type of formation for his offense this year. That would be extremely unfortunate and unfair to Coach Weis. And it's not like he didn't recruit enough TEs. Based on what he has recruited to campus, we shouldn't even have to worry about having enough tight ends on the roster.

This kind of stuff is just really annoying to me. We've got a head coach with his job on the line who is scraping and clawing just to keep his head above water, and the administration is tossing his players off the team for a freaking bun run. Is there any doubt that this stuff is holding back the program?? And I'm guessing it's just the tip of the iceberg. I'd be willing to bet that there are administrators who are constantly on Weis' back about every little thing that has nothing to do with football. When was the last time you ever heard about any other school tossing a player for something as dumb as what Fauria supposedly did?? Imagine if Nick Saban had to deal with players getting thrown out at Alabama for bun runs. What if he had to take his players to mass two hours before the game and if he had "academic advisors" breathing down his neck at every other turn?? Wouldn't that negatively affect their program?? Why couldn't the same be said about the ND program?? If the other big time programs aren't doing this stuff, why are we??

I don't necessarily think Weis is the second coming of Ara Parseghian or Lou Holtz, but these types of incidents make me wonder if any coach could turn ND into an elite program again working under the parameters of the current administration. Are we a big time football program or are we going the academic route and joining the Ivy League?? If we're going to try to be a big time football program, we need to let the football program breathe a little bit.

June 26, 2009

NBA Draft Recap: Thoughts and Observations

Ok, the NBA Draft is one of my favorite sporting events of the summer, so let's break this thing down with some thoughts on the players involved last night.

Blake Griffin - As strange as this sounds, I actually think Blake Griffin is a little underrated coming out of this draft. With all of the NBA types like Simmons lamenting the fact that he's going to the Clippers, I think there's a perception out there from some folks that Griffin is going to be a bust in the NBA. No chance. Griffin will be a good pro and probably a very good pro. The guy was DOMINANT in college and took his game to another level in the NCAAs. He's your classic NBA power forward in every way and will be a 20-10 lock barring injury. He's not going to the Clippers and putting up 5ppg and dropping out of the league in three years. If he had played college ball at UNC or Duke and was going to Phoenix in the draft instead of the Clippers, people would be a lot more excited about Blake Griffin.

He's not Barkley or Malone or Tim Duncan, but he's got at least an Elton Brand type career in him. The guy that I keep thinking of when I watch Griffin is Antwan Jamison. It's nothing pretty, but you look up at the scoreboard and they have 22 points and 11 rebounds. And they both do it with relative ease. Get Griffin a little 15 foot jumper to go with his post game, and he's going to be a real good power forward in the NBA.

For all the criticism of the 2009 NBA Draft, I think Griffin is a better prospect than Michael Beasley and Bargnani and Bogut and Marvin Williams and a lot of the other big men that have gone early in the last few years. Heck, he's a much safer bet than Greg Oden at this point.

Hasheem Thabeet - Uh oh, I guess that's where the draft drops off. I've been discussing Thabeet all year on this blog, and I just can't get on board with this guy as the #2 pick in the Draft. Are there things I like about him?? Yea, I love his size and the possibility that he could be a Mutumbo type defensive presence. He seems like a pretty good guy who will probably work on his game to become a better pro.

But he can't play basketball!!! Thabeet played three years of college ball, and AT BEST, he's still a huge project. When was the last time a guy with almost zero basketball skills coming out of college just magically turned into an All Star once he got to the NBA?? Don't you need to have some level of basketball skill?? It's not like Thabeet is one of these string bean power forwards with a ton of ability who just needs to add some bulk. Thabeet has an NBA body already but has high school ability to go with it.

I watched this guy probably twenty times over the last three years (if not more), and here's what I had to say about him at the NCAA Tournament:

TERRIBLE hands - You can't be a good offensive big man unless you have good hands and reflexes in the paint. Thabeet cannot catch the ball!! How many times would you see AJ Price drive to the bucket and dump it to Thabeet, and then he'd fumble the pass before collecting it?? You can't get away with that in the NBA. My feeling on hands is that you either have good hands or you don't. Thabeet has bad hands. Maybe they'll get a little better, but it's never going to be a strength for him. He'll certainly never have hands like Blake Griffin.

Bad instincts - The other thing for Thabeet offensively is that he has almost zero offensive skills or instincts. How many times does he grab a rebound two feet from the basket and try to put it on the floor?? Why would you do that?? You're 7'3"!!! Catch the ball and go up with it. Thabeet has no offensive moves either even though he played close to a hundred games at UConn. How does he not have any real moves??

Relies too much on the shotblock - For all the fuss about Thabeet as a defender (some of the praise is obviously deserved), how many times did we see him unnecessarily go for the block and then leave the weak side wide open for someone to sneak in and steal an offensive rebound?? It seems like UConn gives up a ton of cheap putbacks simply because Thabeet wasn't there to block out and clean the glass. And Thabeet seems to pick bad times to take a chance on a block when all he really should be doing is staying home and grabbing the board.

So what is his ceiling as a pro?? Dikembe Mutumbo?? Dalembert?? Couldn't he easily turn out to be Desagna Diop?? If so, is that really worth the #2 pick in the draft?? If he turns out to be Mutombo, I would say yes. But I don't think he's a lock to get to that level by any stretch. Thabeet will get better of course and probably can stay in the NBA a long time with his size and athletic ability, but you think of a #2 pick as a guy who can be a big time difference maker. I don't think of Thabeet at that level.

Bottom line, I think Thabeet is a huge reach at #2 and questionable to ever even be a starter in the league. He has backup center written all over him. Memphis needed a big man, but I don't think they'll solve that problem with Thabeet.

James Harden -- Another guy I've already commented on, so I'll just go with that again.

I had been hearing about how spectacular this guy was all year, so I was curious to see him play at some point this season. I was picturing like a Dwayne Wade type player with explosive moves who could take over a game at any moment. I first watched Harden during the Pac 10 tournament, and my initial impression was that he was one of those Chris Douglas-Roberts guys who isn't an athletic beast but seems to find ways to score even though he's not a pure shooter. But after watching him play against Syracuse, I don't really see what this guy brings to the table. Did he just play horribly or is really not that good?? Are there any Sun Devil fans who read this blog?? I saw a guy who looked disinterested, can't shoot, turned the ball over, and seemed perfectly content to defer to the other guys on his team. He gave off a vibe like he didn't care. If a guy can't get fired up for the NCAA tournament, what is he going to be like for 82 games in an NBA season?? He's not even Chris Douglas-Roberts. He's like the homeless man's CDR. That sentence alone should scare the heck out of an NBA team.

I'll clarify what I said there by saying that I have watched five games out of a two year career from James Harden. And by all accounts, he played the worst basketball of his career during that stretch. Until the Pac 10/NCAA Tournament, he was carrying that team and averaging 20+ points a game. There seem to be a lot of people who really like him and think of him as a glue guy with great character who could blend into a team and play unselfishly while also bringing a lot to the table.

Maybe I'm wrong, but I saw what I saw. When the stakes were high in tournament play, he folded. I thought ASU looked better when Harden was on the bench. He'd go to the bench and they'd be flying around and playing great, unselfish basketball. When he'd come back in, they'd get real lethargic again while they tried to work everything through him. And that's a college team.

I like what OKC is doing with their franchise, but I'm leery of Harden. I think he's a huge reach at #3, and I would have taken Curry if I was them.

Tyreke Evans - Another guy I'm thinking could be a disappointment. I'm never high on shooting guards who plan to play the point in the NBA. This guy just feels like a DeJuan Wagner/Larry Hughes redux to me. 6'5" combo guards who don't like to get their teammates involved and aren't deadly shooters aren't all that valuable in the NBA. In fact, I'm guaranteeing that Evans bounces around the league about five times in the next ten years.

Could he end up scoring 15-20 ppg for a couple years on some bad Kings' teams?? Yea, I could see that with his size and strength, but I don't see him ever being a lead guard on a playoff team.
If I was Evans, I would make myself valuable by becoming an elite defender. Maybe he could turn himself into a Ron Artest type guy who teams want because of his defensive skills.

Jonny Flynn and Ricky Rubio -- Seems like a lot of people are ripping the Twolves, but I sort of like what they did. In a weak draft like this one, why not take two cracks at the apple to make sure you get a good point guard?? These drafts are crapshoots, and every other pick is a bust. By taking the top two point guard prospects, you increase your odds of getting a good one. Get them both into camp and see how they look. Maybe one of them never pans out. If that happens, at least you have another option (instead of going back into the lottery looking for a point guard yet again). What else would they have done with that #6 pick that would have made them that much better anyway??

If you get them both in camp and both look great, then you move one of them for a haul of picks in 2010 or 2011.

Heck, I don't even think it's the worst idea to keep both of them. Maybe you don't play them together all the time, but you could have an intriguinglineup by playing both of them on the court at the same time.

People overanalyze "value" in drafts. At the end of the day, the goal is to get a good player no matter where you take him. There are too many busts out there to assign "value" on a pick. If you get good "value" on a guy who ends up being a bust, does that still make him a good value?? No, of course not. Maybe the TWolves could have gotten more value out of their #6 pick, but the goal for them was to come out of the draft with a good point guard. By taking two, they put themselves in good position to get at least one good one.

Demarr DeRozan -- Of all the guys in this draft, I think DeRozan might have the most upside of anyone. Honestly, I said on multiple occasions during the NCAA Tournament that I would have considered taking him with the #2 overall pick. DeRozan has SKILLS. He's strong and athletic and extremely smooth out there. He was the best player in the Pac 10 tournament (yes, that includes James Harden), and I thought he was the best player on the floor when USC played Michigan State in the NCAAs. Get him in the right offense (something like what the Orlando Magic do with Pietrus and Lewis), and he could be really good.

If he didn't come out after his freshman year, he would have had a legit shot to be the #1 overall pick next year. That's how I look at him. If he had stuck around for 3 years, he would have been one of those Ray Allen/Vince Carter types in college.

Jordan Hill -- YIKES. New York fans are going to be killing this guy in February when he's averaging 4ppg and 3rpg. I wrote this about him in March.

Ok, maybe he won't be a huge bust, but a top 5 pick?? My god, how weak is this draft?? Is this the weakest draft of all time?? I watched this guy intently in Indy, and there's nothing all that special about him. I thought he got outplayed badly by Samardo Samuels.

Plus, he's a junior. For some reason, I thought he was only a freshman, and now I'm seeing that he's actually a junior. For a junior, he's really not all that polished.

The guy that came to mind for me is Anderson Varejao. He seems like he can be an energy guy who does things around the bucket, but not a go-to-guy. I like Varejao, but is that the guy I want if I have a top 5 pick?? Not going to lie, I'd hope to get more than that out of that pick.

A soft big man in New York?? I don't see this ending up well. Bilas likes him apparently though, so he's got that going for him. Yea, he's got size, but I've seen enough 6'10 guys cycle in and out of the league in 4-5 years to fall in love with his size. It was a shaky pick, but the Knicks also got unlucky. They were praying for one of those point guards to drop down to them, and nobody was left. Now they're stuck with an unpolished Pac 10 big man who screams out "energy guy" at best.

BJ Mullens -- Part of me feels bad about BJ Mullens because he has had a really tough childhood, but I can't say that I was too bummed out to see him drop down into the lower part of the first round. Mullens did what he had to do for his family, but he did nothing to distinguish himself in his one year at Ohio State.

I can't see BJ Mullens ever materializing into a quality pro player. His size is nice, but Mullens is soft. And his athleticism is overstated. The words "for a white guy" should always be included with any mention of Mullens being athletic. There are white big man busts littered all over the league. What is so special about Mullens that differentiates him from any other white big man who hasn't panned out??

If I had to make a choice between Mullens and Kosta Koufos, I would take Koufos in a second. Koufos at least showed some legitimate NBA skills during his time at Ohio State. He had post moves, great touch around the bucket and also could knock down shots from the perimeter. I've never seen Mullens connect on anything besides a dunk or a wide open layup. He's about as raw as you can get for an NBA prospect. A complete blank slate. Maybe he develops into a Brad Miller type player, but I wouldn't bet on it.

One final note on Thad Matta. Apparently Matta did no favors for BJ Mullens with NBA scouts. He openly admits that he told scouts that he couldnt' give a proper evaluation on Mullens because he only played one year at Ohio State.

HUH?? Dear Thad, you recruited Mullens!! Why are you so bitter about this?? Did you really think he wasn't leaving after one year?? Heck, I could have told you that he was leaving after one year, and I've never even met the guy. This is what happens when you recruit "one and dones." They leave after one year, and there's nothing you can do during the year to convince them otherweise. I don't know what Matta thought when he recruited Mullens and Koufos, but he's acted like a complete baby when both of them decided to leave. If he actually thought either of those guys was staying more than one year, then he's not very bright.

Memo to Thad, if you can't handle the world of "one and dones" and AAU coaches and agents, then don't recruit those guys. There are plenty of 3-4 star types out there from the Midwest who would give you four years at Ohio State. All you gotta do is take a look up to East Lansing and see what Tom Izzo has done up there. Stop whining about players leaving for the pros. You have no one to blame but yourself for your roster problems.

Tyler Hansborough -- Without a doubt, the funniest pick of the draft. Are you kidding me Larry Bird??!? I literally spit out my drink when that pick got announced. Nobody loves a white power forward like Larry Bird!!

And then almost on cue, there's Dick Vitale on ESPN screaming about how Tyler Hansborough was the "steal of the draft" and even predicted that Hansborough will be the rookie of the year in the NBA. Hahahahah. Was there even a doubt??! I swear, you could just run a tape of Dickie V every year for the last 20 years, insert the name of the gritty senior veteran from UNC or Duke in there, and you could run the same clip every year. Death, taxes, and Dickie V singing the praises of some four year guy who probably will be nothing better than a role player in the NBA.

Can Hansborough play in the league?? Of course!! I'm driving the bus for the "Luke Harangody is having a 12 year NBA career" bandwagon, so I can support the idea of Hansborough finding a niche. Energy and effort are huge in the league, and you know Hansborough will bring it every night. He'll get his points and rebounds on sheer effort alone. When he's going up against a hungover Zach Randolph in the middle of February, he'll get those loose balls and easy buckets that Randolph won't bother to chase.

I don't think he's the 12th best prospect in this draft, but Hansborough will be all right. He'll hang around and earn a living in the league for a long time. Maybe Indiana just wanted to make sure they got a guy that they trusted to be a top 8 guy on their roster. With all of the potential busts out there in this draft, it's probably not the worst strategy.

With that said, it's the equivalent of the guy who loads up on mediocre veterans in your fantasy baseball draft and finishes in 8th place. If you want to get to the top, you kind of need to take some risks on some guys with upside.

Terrance Williams and Earl Clark -- The Louisville guys are wildcards to me. I could see both of them being productive, but I could see both of them being busts. Earl Clark is talented, but he disappears at times. For a junior, he's too inconsistent. In today's world, a junior should be a dominant player in college, but Clark wasn't really that dominant.

Some quick thoughts on the rest of the draft:

--Love what the Philly 76ers did. Holliday didn't do much at UCLA as a freshman, but you can't ignore that upside. For all we know, he would have come back to UCLA next year and dominated. Definitely worth the gamble. If it pays off, they got a lottery talent at point guard.

--I can't believe how many good values there were in the 2nd round of the draft. I think the 2nd round of this draft was one of the deepest in recent years.

Love some of these guys:

DeJuan Blair - Cmon, Blair got jobbed here. How did he not go in the first round?? He was the best player in the Big East. He DOMINATED Thabeet every time he went up against him. Look at what he did in the NCAAs. He was unguardable. Blair is a warrior. Maybe he doesn't have much height, but he can score and rebound in the NBA. These undersized beefy guys always end up being underrated in the pros. If Jason Maxiell can do it at 6'6", DeJuan Blair can do it. He's got the type of attitude that you want on an NBA roster. He'll be one of the top 15 players in this draft. Mark that down in pen.

Best of all, he ends up on the Spurs!! That is an absolute steal for San Antonio.

Dante Cunningham - Maybe he's a little undersized, but Cunningham was one of the most improved players in America last year. He pretty much carried the load on the interior for Nova all year. I'm biased toward the Big East, but I would be shocked if Cunningham can't play in the league. The only question for him will be staying healthy.

Sam Young -- Are you kidding me?? How he did drop all the way to #36?? I would not have been stunned to see him go somewhere in the top 15. Sam Young can play, and he's a winner. I've watched this guy for four years. He can score, he's tough, and he's versatile. He's the Chris Douglas-Roberts of this draft. The age thing is silly. So what if he's 24?? Does that mean he can't play?? It's not like any of these guys play their whole NBA careers for one team. Heck, I would rather have him as a mature 24 year old who can play than some 20 year old kid who isn't ready for another five years and may not ever pan out.

The Cavs missed the boat by not taking Sam Young. He's the kind of glue guy who could have done some real nice things off the bench for them right away. Instead, they'll be trotting Daniel Gibson out there again next year.

Derrick Brown - Gotta throw some love for the Xavier guy here. This pick might turn out to be a steal for Charlotte. Brown has the ability to be a good swingman in the league. Big fan of Charlotte's draft. Henderson was a nice pick as well. I didn't realize his dad played in the NBA. If your dad played in the NBA, chances are that you'll probably know how to act like a professional.
Dajuan Summers - I know this guy has some attitude issues, but he has always performed well when I've watched him play. The talent is there. I think he was worth the risk in the second round.

Chase Budinger - Could be another gem in the late second round. Budinger really impressed me in the Louisville game. I like his size for a guard, and he's got some athletic ability. I thought he was the best player on the floor in the Louisville-Zona game. If Luke Walton can make it in the league, Budinger can as well.

Also could see guys like AJ Price and Pendergraph and Brockman and Calathes contributing to a roster. This draft is not as bad as people are making it out to be.

--Finally, the Cleveland Cavaliers. Doesn't last night's pick pretty much sum up the Danny Ferry era?? The guy had all kinds of options for ready-made pros who could come in and give them something off the bench next year, and he ends up taking a project from the Congo. Yo Danny, you got a team that is ready to make the leap into the Finals. Why not get a player who can come in right away and play?? Even if Eyenga actually pans out, it will be 3-4 years before he's even ready to contribute. By then, Lebron might be playing in New York.

Why not take a Sam Young or DeJuan Blair type guy right there?? If you get Young, he immediately becomes the best forward on the team not named LeBron James. Wouldn't he be a great guy to have next year when you're trying to guard Pietrus and Turkoglu and Lewis and now Vince Carter?? Who is going to guard those guys??

If you take DeJuan Blair, he can immediately come in and give you a lift off the bench as a rebounder and low post scorer. The Cavs are going to be trotting out Joe Smith and JJ Hickson off the bench next year. Not exactly a deadly combo inside.

Ferry just doesn't get it. He's one of those guys who means well but never does a good job with the execution part. Take free agency. He had a bunch of money to spend a few offseasons ago and one goal in mind. Find a second banana for LeBron James. Ok, that's fine. But who does he sign with all that money?? Larry Hughes!! It was a good plan but bad execution.

Same with the last two drafts. Ferry has embraced the Spurs model of drafting projects late in the first round with the hope that they'll be real good down the road. Not a bad idea in theory, but he misses the fact that his CURRENT ROSTER has too many needs for him to be doing that. You can only go the project route when you already have a loaded roster. Those projects would just be the icing on the cake. But when you have glaring needs on your bench, you can't take a bunch of fliers on wildcard type guys. Ferry hasn't drafted one decent player since Lebron. Their bench is among the worst in the league because they haven't drafted anyone of quality to contribute.

That's the problem with the Danny Ferry era in a nutshell. He has some good thoughts, but he has no sense of how to build a roster around Lebron. We're in year 6 or 7 of the Lebron James era, and Ferry still hasn't put much around him.

I don't understand why there aren't more people questioning Danny Ferry's credibility to build a championship team. As far as I'm concerned, the Cavs cannot win a championship with Danny Ferry as their GM or Mike Brown as their head coach. Neither of them can give Lebron what he needs.

June 25, 2009

ND Football Update: Hendrix is Irish, Fauria is out, and Chris Martin is taking visits?

Man, when it rains, it pours in the world of ND football. In the span of 24 hours, we have all kinds of things going on.

A quick rundown of yesterday's events.

1) First, Andrew Hendrix has committed to ND for 2010. I didn't necessarily think a quarterback was a necessity in the 2010 class, but it's always nice to get one. I'm presuming that he'll redshirt in 2010 and then serve as the backup to Crist in 2011. He could conceivably compete for the starting job in 2013 as a redshirt junior (true senior).

I've watched a few of his highlight videos, and you can see why he's a D-I prospect.
He's definitely got the size at 6'3, 220 pounds and the athletic ability to play major college ball. Honestly, for all the fuss about Nick Montana, I'm more intrigued by Hendrix as a prospect. Nick Montana weighs 175 pounds! There's no way he's going to be physically ready to compete in the Pac 10 unless he puts on a bunch of weight. Hendrix already has the size that you want and could easily get bigger and stronger up in South Bend. And if you watch him move around in the pocket, he's not exactly a statue. He could be the type of quarterback that we use more on the run like we did with Brady Quinn. I'm always a fan of having a mobile quarterback in college football.

Hendrix seems to be running a pretty sophisticated offense at Moeller in this video. They basically run that Pistol formation with a lot of shotgun stuff and a lot of precision passing. Isn't that pretty close to what Weis does at the end of the day?? It seems like he'll be a pretty good fit in this offense.

Hendrix reminds me of the type of quarterback that Michigan always used to get in the Lloyd Carr/Gary Moeller days. A big guy with a big frame who can stand back there and make the throws but also can take a hit. Kind of a Chad Henne/John Navarre/Todd Collins type guy. I wonder if Hendrix would have looked at Michigan if they hadn't switched offenses.

Plus, he's a Cincy guy! My god, South Bend is turning into Cincy North all of the sudden. Rudolph, Welch, and now Hendrix. Plus, it sounds like we are the frontrunner for the offensive lineman from Cincinnati St. Xavier, Matt James. All of these guys are 4-5 star type players, so it definitely appears that we're getting some quality players out of Cincinnati lately. Definitely a good sign on the recruiting front.

Anyway, Hendrix is a good get for this program. With Clausen and Crist on board, it was an uphill battle just to land anyone, let alone a 4 star player who had offers from Ohio State and a host of other major D-I schools. At the very least, Hendrix is a quality backup to have in the program from 2010-2014, he adds depth to the position, and he has the potential to compete for the starting job in 2013-14.

2) Unfortunately, the good news on the Hendrix front is tempered a bit by some bad news regarding Joseph Fauria. Kind of a bummer to find out that he's not going to be playing this upcoming season. Rumors are already circulating that it's some sort of dorm-related matter. God forbid someone have a little too much to drink and do something dumb. Is that really a reason to kick a player out of school?? And if this suspension is because he broke parietals, I'm going to lose my mind. Give me a break!

What happened to the idea of handling things internally?? Why couldn't you make Fauria go through some alcohol education classes while also keeping him as a student?? Do they really need to throw him out of school for a year?? Look at what is going on at Ohio State with their freshmen recruit, Jamaal Berry. That guy just got charged with felony drug possession, and he's on campus as we speak!

These guys are 19-20 years old. They're young guys who might not always use their best judgment. It's one thing to punish them, but kicking them out of school is not the answer unless they've done something egregious (major crime, academic scandal, etc).

The Kyle McAlarney thing was an abomination and something that I will never get over. To throw a kid out of school for one marijuana incident was completely absurd, and it completely screwed Mike Brey and the Notre Dame basketball team. For anyone who has seen McAlarney speak in interviews or carry himself on the court, you couldn't ask for a better representative of the school than him.

As for the football team, I honestly don't think Fauria is a very big loss for this year. I like Fauria a lot and have been high on him ever since watching his high school highlights video. Here's what I said about him before the spring game.

If you are looking for a MAJOR sleeper on this ND roster, I'll toss out Joseph Fauria as a possibility. I first watched this guy in the Blue Gold incoming recruits video, and was absolutely blown away by him. He came in with Kyle Rudolph, and I actually came away from that video feeling like Fauria was better than Rudolph and had more potential. Other than Michael Floyd, Fauria was the most impressive player on that tape. Obviously he didn't play a down last year, but I am still intrigued by this guy and have read great things about him all spring.

I'm not even kidding in saying that Fauria is a Tony Gonzalez-type athlete. Ok, maybe that's a stretch, but this kid is going to be a star if he puts on some weight and continues to mature. His combination of athleticism and height and hands are very rare at the college level. Some of the catches that he made in high school in full stride were remarkable for a guy as tall as he is.


But after watching him again at the spring game, here were some of my thoughts:

Fauria is a string bean!! He is the skinniest football player I've ever seen. He's listed at 245, but I don't see how he could possibly weigh that much. When he runs out on the field, it looks like the wind is going to blow him over. I cannot see him getting a ton of playing time this year with that body. He'll get killed.

The ND strength coaches need to get Fauria on some sort of insane high calorie diet or something to put some meat on those bones. Get him some extra helpings of Blazing Sea Nuggets and Yo Creme at the South Dining Hall to pack on an extra 20 pounds.


I don't see any way that Fauria could have played that much. He's a great athlete, but his legs are like twigs. How can you be a good blocker in the running game with that body?? A good d-linemen would just get underneath him and blow him up. Point is, if Fauria was getting a ton of minutes next year, our running game would be in trouble anyway.

The other thing is that we have two really good tight ends already on the roster. How many tight ends do you really need?? Were we really going to play three tight ends all the much next year? Rudolph is an All-American caliber player, and I thought Mike Ragone was one of the most impressive players at the spring game. He has the potential to be a breakout player in this offense, and his body is much more mature than Fauria's body. Ragone reminds me a ton of Anthony Fasano.

Our tight ends will be as good as anyone in America even without Fauria. Both Rudolph and Ragone were elite recruits. Fauria had a lot of potential to add depth to the position, but I didn't really see him getting a ton of minutes anyway this year. Hopefully he will be back in the fall of 2010 and ready to compete for playing time by 2011.

3) The other big news coming out of the ND circles has been this Chris Martin story. Let the hand-wringing begin. It wouldn't be an ND offseason without a bunch of people out on the ledge worried about every little thing. Then again, Chris Martin is a huge recruit for us next year, so I can understand to some degree why people are freaking out a little bit about losing him to a school like USC.

With that said, I think this whole thing is a lot of fretting over nothing. Is he taking visits?? Who knows!?! All we know is that he's CONSIDERING the idea of taking visits. It's not even a definite that he'll actually take any visits to other schools.

Plus, there could be any number of reasons why he would visit another school. His dad and others are saying that he wants to have a chance to participate in other camps to test himself against other players. That' s a good sign to me that he's a competitor. Maybe he just wants to get some free tickets to some other college games this fall. Maybe he just wants to soak up as much football as he can from other college coaches. If anything, I encourage him to visit other schools. I think he's going to find that there's no school like ND.

All I know is that Chris Martin has been about as rock solid as any recruit we've had in recent years. He committed to ND immediately after the 2009 signing day and has been telling anyone who will listen about how excited he is to be Irish. There's plenty of playing time available at defensive end when he arrives on campus. If he's as good as he looks in his videos, he has a chance to be the best defensive end we've had since Justin Tuck.

I'm going on the record here with a GUARANTEE. Someone feel free to rub this in my face if I'm wrong, but I'm guaranteeing that Chris Martin signs with ND in 2010. If you want to look up this post next February when Chris Martin has signed with USC, by all means do so and call me out on it. But I think Chris Martin is lock city for the Irish, and I think his commitment will only be strengthened when the team gets off to a good start in 2009.

June 24, 2009

Is Urban Meyer abandoning the spread offense??

Interesting article here on the evolution of Urban Meyer's offense down at Florida. When you think of Urban Meyer, you usually think of the spread option offense. That's his bread and butter ever since he's been at Bowling Green. Dink passes, option reads, little gimmick plays designed to get the ball to playmakers in space. I'm pretty sure every defensive coordinator in the SEC still has nightmares about a middle screen to Percy Harvin that he takes for 60 yards.

It's an exciting offense to watch and obviously has been incredibly successful with two national titles in the last three years, but it is very much a college offense. You don't see any NFL teams running the spread option as a base offense, and a lot of the principles that make it successful in college (discipline and superior athleticism) will not cut it in the NFL where every NFL defense has incredible speed and unlimited time to practice. In other words, it doesn't work in the NFL.

And that's where Urban Meyer appears to be realizing that he might run into some problems if he keeps the spread option as his base offense. The perception is now out there in the recruiting world that you aren't as marketable to the NFL if you play in the spread option offense in college. If you aren't learning the pro style offense, then you come into the league at a disadvantage and essentially have to learn an entirely new offense. Here's another article about the adjustments that high school players have to go through in a new offense. Once recruits start balking about your offense (even if it is a very productive offense), it's probably time to reevaluate things.

Is the new perception of the spread a fair one?? Tough to say. On the one hand, football is football, and things like athleticism and instincts and speed can pretty much translate to whatever offense you are running. On the other hand, the NFL is such a competitive league that you don't want to have to come into the league three steps behind everyone else. Coaches might get scared off by the spread option players because they don't know for sure that these guys can translate to an NFL offense. It's a bigger risk for an NFL GM/coach to draft a guy like that, and it's understandable why that might hurt their value.

A perfect example would be Alex Smith. That guy was a superstar at Utah, but I thought it was insanity to make him the #1 pick in the NFL Draft. A spread option guy?? I still can't believe that happened. He was a great fit in a college offense, but his game didn't translate at all to the pros. That might have been the dumbest draft pick in the last ten years. The Alex Smith debacle has probably scarred every NFL gm for life, and I don't think you'll be seeing a spread option QB going in the top 10 any time soon.

The recruiting angle is very interesting though. If you're a superstar pro style linemen or wide receiver or running back or quarterback, why would you go to a spread option offense?? You can easily play ball at Georgia or LSU or USC where they run a pro style offense that has put tons of offensive players into the pros. You don't have that same guarantee at a place like Florida. I know they've put plenty of players into the pros, but the Florida offense is not exactly a showcase for NFL type offenses. Urban Meyer wants linemen who can execute his offense, so he's going to teach them how to block in a spread and not the pro style. Wide receivers are going to run routes that are conducive to the spread option. Quick hitters and misdirections instead of the typical down the field stuff that you'd see in a pro offense. The Florida offense doesn't use tailbacks in a straight I formation where they pound the ball off tackle. If you're a stud back like Knowshon Moreno or Beanie Wells or Joe McKnight, why would you go to Florida and play in that offense??

I've always wondered when recruits would eventually catch on and get spooked by the spread option. If I was a Michigan fan, I'd be freaking out about this article. Urban Meyer appears to be getting ahead of the trend and going to a pro style offense while Rich Rodriguez is plowing right ahead with the spread option up at Michigan. What happens if recruits start avoiding Ann Arbor en masse because they're afraid that they won't succeed in the league by playing in Rich Rodriguez's offense??

Urban Meyer has obviously had a lot more success at Florida than Rich Rodriguez has had at Michigan thus far, so I don't think the recruiting well is suddenly going to dry up if he sticks with the spread option. Recruits want to play for winners no matter what offense they run, and there's no denying that Florida is the reigning king of college football these days. However, it doesn't take much to lose your status in the football world, so it's interesting to see that Urban Meyer is trying to adapt to stay ahead of the curve.

So where does Florida's offense go from here?? Will their offense be as effective?? I could see people making a big deal of this change, but I think Florida's offense will end up being just fine. I don't think the style of your offense is that big of a deal in college football. I think it comes down to execution. You can run a Wing T, and it will be successful if you execute well. Look at what Georgia Tech did last year. They ran the triple option and had an outstanding year. The key to Florida's offense is that they execute really well and find ways to get the ball to their playmakers. If they adapt to more of a pro style offense, their success will come down to whether or not they can execute it.

Judging by the way Urban Meyer runs his teams, I would guess that they're offense will remain potent. If you watch his teams play, the key to their success is not their scheme. It's that they run everything with precision and discipline. You could say the same about Lou Holtz's teams. We ran a basic option offense at ND under Holtz, but he made it work because we were the most physical and disciplined team in the country. I've heard stories that we would often run the same play over and over, and nobody could stop it.

I wonder how this move will affect Tim Tebow. As great as he has been in college football, it's kind of his make or break year to prove if he can be a starting quarterback in the NFL. You have to think that part of the reason Urban Meyer is remaking the offense is to give Tebow a showcase for the NFL scouts. How is he going to perform in a pro style offense?? Can he be a drop back passer?? It would definitely be good for his stock if he runs it well, but what if he struggles?? Is Tebow fully on board with this change?? I know Tebow wants to become an NFL quarterback, but he also wants to win another championship. Interesting dynamic there.

From an ND angle, I also think this move is interesting if he ever gets on the radar for the ND head coaching position. Whether it's next year or ten years down the road, I do think that Urban Meyer will someday be the head coach at Notre Dame. With the pro style personnel that we tend to attract (Qbs, tight ends, big linemen), we sort of need a coach who can tailor his offense around the typical ND type recruits. The spread option is not going to work for a big armed pro style QB like Clausen or Crist or Hendrix. If Meyer can effectively teach a pro style offense with a quarterback under center, he might feel more confident about going to ND someday.

One of the things that I've heard through the years from ND fans is that they are leery of Urban Meyer's offense and think of it as "gimmicky." I actually agree with that sentiment to some degree even though I think Meyer is a fabulous coach. You don't want to be a one trick pony in the coaching world. If that spread goes out of style or recruits start balking about it, suddenly you've got nothing and your momentum dries up. I think it's a good sign that Meyer has already recognized some of the potential problems that might come down the road if he continues to focus on the spread. It's better to adapt now than to wait until it's too late.

Anyway, should be something to keep an eye on. I don't anticipate a full-fledged switch to the pro style in Tebow's senior year, but I think they'll show some of that at times (probably in the less important games). Scott Loeffler is a pro style quarterbacks coach who has already brought a new offensive philosophy to Gainesville. With this John Brantley guy in the fold for next year as more of a pro style guy, we might see a whole new brand of offense at Florida in 2010.

June 22, 2009

The Hangover

Figured I would put in the obligatory plug for "The Hangover." An instant classic if I've ever seen one. Anyway, I know we're a sports blog and all, but it's not often that a pantheon comedy comes along (I wonder if Hollywood will ever get the message that Americans are starving for some better adult comedies). Gotta put this one right up there with Old School and Wedding Crashers for funniest movies of the decade. I'm already looking forward to The Hangover 2.

What is Zach Galifianakis' ceiling in terms of popularity?? I know he was getting kinda big as a comedian, but he's turned into a superstar practically overnight. Can he get into the Ferrell/Farley stratosphere or is he going to just settle into more of a niche cult status??

Anyway, great movie. It's not often that someone sings a song about a guy named Doug, and how many times are you going to see Mike Tyson sing Phil Collins "In the Air Tonight" in your life??

Speaking of Phil Collins, I wonder what he thinks about all the love for "In the Air Tonight" these days. Between The Hangover and Mike Tomlin saying that he plays "In the Air Tonight" to get the Steelers pumped up, that song is having one heckuva year.





June 18, 2009

The post NBA Draft Deadline College Hoops Preview

Yesterday’s discussion about Luke Harangody’s return to college basketball had me wondering where ND stood alongside the rest of the Big East. I did a little fishing around on some of the major websites and found a couple top 25 lists to peek at for the upcoming season. Now that the draft is over, the rosters are set, and we can start to take a look at who looks strong and who is facing a major rebuilding project. I like to take a look at these lists after the draft deadline because it's tough to really gauge teams until we know who is going to be on the rosters.

First, a quick national overview. The consensus top three teams coming back next year are Kentucky, Kansas, and Michigan State. No big surprises there. For my money, Kansas is the clear favorite heading into next year. When you are bringing back two All-American type players, a slew of talented wings, and a monster recruiting class, you’re in pretty good shape. Kansas hit the jackpot with Collins and Aldrich—two elite college players who don’t quite have the “measurables” to be lured into the NBA after a year or two.

It’s amazing how quickly Bill Self went from a perceived “choker” to a guy who is now universally regarded as one of the elite coaches in the game. They were an eyelash from going to the Final Four last year in a rebuilding year, and now he’s stockpiled even more talent to go with that group.

Kentucky is going to be a very interesting story next year. Even without Jodie Meeks, they are going to be as talented as anyone on paper. Patterson, Wall, Cousins, Bledsoe, Orton. There are probably 4-5 NBA players on the roster. Still, there’s a lot of things that need to be sorted out in that program before they get it rolling, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Kentucky is a bit of a “disappointment” next year. It’s never easy to have everyone on the same page with a brand new coach. Unfortunately for Calipari, his transition year is going to come when he already has a loaded roster in place, and guys like Wall and Patterson will not be around in 2010 when Calipari has full control of his program.

Michigan State is a borderline lock for the Final Four in my mind. In fact, I’ll bet anyone who reads this post that Sparty is playing in Indy in the Final Four next year. I have that much faith in Tom Izzo. With an experienced roster coming back and plenty of depth, they’re definitely a contender to win it all. MSU is sort of like the Pittsburgh Steelers of college basketball. You know what you’re getting, and they are always going to be a contender.

Anyway, that brings me to the Big East and how the league is shaping up as we stand today. The league is going to be down, but the Big East is like the SEC these days. A lot of these teams just reload.

I looked at a couple top twenty five polls, and here’s how the Big East teams fared.

Nova – 6, 4
Uconn – 8, 17
WVU – 10, 9
Louisville – 15, 23
Georgetown – 24, 24

Five teams ranked in each poll, and two teams that appear to be consensus top 10 teams. I agree with the Nova pick. As far as I’m concerned, they are the clear favorites in the Big East next year. The lose Dante Cunningham and Shane Clark, but they have far and away the best backcourt in the league next year (if not the nation) with Reynolds, Fisher, Redding, and Stokes. I’m a huge Scottie Reynolds fan. So smooth, great defender, good team player. He’s not a classic point guard (which seems to hurt his NBA value), but he can handle the role of being a lead guard in a college offense. Interesting that he decided to come back to college. Maybe I’m wrong on these early entries. Maybe these guys figure that they’re going to be a second rounder anyway, so they might as well stick around in college, hang out with the fellas, and try to make a run at the Final Four one last time.

The only concern for Nova is going to be on the interior. Guess we’ll see what Antonio Pena can do as the go to guy inside. They also have a top five recruiting class coming in next year. Jay Wright is really turning Nova into a powerhouse.

If there’s one team I could see being a little overrated out of the Big East next year, it’s probably West Virginia. I think they'll be good, but top 10 good?? Wow. Butler is great, Ebanks is great, I like Truck Bryant, even Mazzulla. But I think Ruoff will be a pretty big loss as their main perimeter threat. Either way, if WVU is the second best team in the Big East next year, it's not going to be a very strong league. I think WVU will settle in somewhere around 3rd-4th in the league.

The two wildcards are probably going to be UConn and Louisville. On paper, UConn probably has the most raw talent in the league. They have Kemba Walker back as a five star point guard, Dyson will be back, and they have Stanley Robinson back after his monster performance in the NCAA Tournament. Who else has that type of personnel?? Plus, UConn has brought in multiple stud recruits in the last couple years. I could see them being much better than talked about at this point.

Louisville lost a ton last year with Earl Clark, T-Will, and Andre McGee all moving on, but let's be honest. Richard Pitino is pacing that sideline, and it's not like Louisville isn't recruiting well. That frontcourt with Samardo Samuels and Terrence Jennings will be as talented as any in the league, and they still have Jerry Smith and Ed Sosa in the backcourt. I'm guessing that Louisville will be a factor again next year.

Georgetown is the other team that has been getting some preseason top 25 buzz. Interesting. I could see it. Everyone sort of forgot about them, but it's still Georgetown. I'd be shocked to see JTIII put up another subpar year. Between Greg Monroe, Austin Freeman, and Chris Wright, the Hoyas have a nucleus to get right back toward the top of the Big East in a hurry. Getting Monroe to come back next year could be huge. We'll have to see if last year was a blip on the radar or a sign of bigger problems at Georgetown. My gut instinct tells me that Gtown will be back next year.

So those are the five teams from the Big East that are considered top 25 teams going into next year, and I think all of them look like safe bets to be NCAA teams. Joe Lunardi is predicting right now that there will be 9 teams from the Big East in the Big Dance next year, so that leaves four others. Lunardi includes ND among that group.

Of the remaining teams, I'd actually say that ND has a chance to be the "best of the rest." Pitt loses Blair, Young, and Fields and doesn't have many returning guys back. The Cuse got bludgeoned by the early entry draft with Flynn, Devendorf, and Harris all leaving. Who do they have left?? Rautins and Onganaet?? Doesn't look like the Orange brought in a monster recruiting class or anything, so I see them taking a step back to the NIT this year.

Marquette also got crushed by graduation. McNeal, Matthews, and James all are gone. They're basically going with Hayward and young guys next year. Should be interesting to see what Buzz Williams does next year now that he doesn't have a bunch of seniors. Is he Tom Crean, Jr. or Larry Coker??

Of the teams that stunk last year, I'd say that Cincy has the best shot to move up toward NCAA contention. They basically have their whole team back next year. They imploded down the stretch last year, but it's pretty much make or break for Mick Cronin next year. If he can't make the NCAA Tournament with a team full of juniors and seniors, he's probably not going make it at Cincinnati.

After looking through all of these teams, I think ND is in much better shape going into next year and definitely looking like an NCAA Tournament team. The talent is way down in the Big East, and there's only one team next year that I would characterize as "elite" going into the season: Villanova. Everyone else is either raw or decimated by graduation. The powerhouses of the league (UConn and Louisville) each lost their three best players, and two of the other two premier programs (Syracuse and Pitt) are returning NIT type talent next year.

Our talent and recruiting deficiencies will not be as problematic when everyone else in the league is either young or inexperienced. Harangody and Jackson are four year starters, and Hansborough and Martin have started for BCS schools. That's good enough to be a top 6 team in this league next year (if not better).

Here's how I would rank the Big East teams as I see them three days after the early entry deadline (obviously this is a very rough guess at this point):

1) Villanova
2) UConn
3) West Virginia
4) Louisville
5) Georgetown
6) Notre Dame
7) Pitt
8) Cincy
9) Syracuse
10) Marquette
11) Seton Hall
12) St. Johns
13) Providence
14) South Florida
15) Rutgers
16) DePaul

Should be interesting to see where the Irish end up in the standings next year. If we get the right schedule, maybe we end up cracking the top 5. With Harangody back, I think Mike Brey has a great shot to lead this team back to the NCAA Tournament.