Opening Day(s)!

Now that (the never ending) Spring Training is finally over and the Opening Days are upon us, I figured we’d take a look at 5 questions / issues / predictions heading into the season.

1. The East

And I’m not talking about the American League. There are potentially four really good teams coming out of the National League East. I’ll get into the Braves and their outlook a little later, but obviously you have to put the Phillies and the Mets at the top of the list. But taking a closer look, both of those teams have some serious questions: the Phillies have to be seriously worried about Cole Hamels elbow, and can they really rely on Jamie Moyer to be so productive again tossing up 80 mph meatballs? Location can only get you so far. And is Ryan Howard going to keep putting up those big power numbers with such a glaring vulnerability in his swing?

As for the Mets, take a look at that rotation. Ok, Johan is Johan, but Mike Pelfrey put up shaky peripherals (110 K’s in 200 IP’s for one), and the ageless (and most of the times lifeless) Livan Hernandez is penciled in for the 5 spot. How long can that last. Obviously, with three stars like Reyes, Wright and Beltran, along with a rebuilt bullpen, the starting pitching doesn’t have to carry the team. But remember this. If it’s close coming down the stretch, the Mets finish with 18 out of their last 21 against the Phillies, Braves, Cubs and Marlins.

Speaking of the Marlins, I love everything about the organization. The philosophy is simple: spin off your assets before they get too expensive and build around pitching. Gammons has been hyping Josh Johnson so much that I’m looking into the Vegas odds of him winning the Cy Young. Ricky Nolasco was probably the most underrated pitcher in the league last year, Cameron Maybin is the next young star to emerge, and Gammons has also identified minor leaguer Mike Stanton as the most impressive youngster in the game this spring. I know that Miami isn’t a sports town and I guess technically it’s not really a small market town, but how can any local Floridian complain about the way that team is run. Larry Beinfest should be giving clinics to every small market team.

2. Sleepers

This morning Gammons identified the Royals and the Cardinals (with the Rockies also in the conversation) as the sleepers. I guess I can’t say I disagree, but the Royals really have to prove it to me for me to believe it. Where is the offense going to come from? Did Gordon and Butler get that much better in the offseason? I like Kyle Davies as much as the next guy (but not as much as Dayton Moore – I’m waiting for him to go sign Bruce Chen and Jung Bong and any other failed Braves prospects he can scrounge up), but when a just signed off the street Sidney Ponson is inserted directly into the rotation, I’ve got questions. Horacio Ramirez is their #4 starter for Pete’s sake! (2007 numbers as a starter – 7.16 ERA, 1.85 WHIP, .337 BAA).

As for the Cardinals, I guess I can see it. They’ve quietly gotten healthy and younger, and never count out a LaRussa coached team. He’s like Tom Izzo – just low key, fundamentally sound, and always in the running. I wouldn’t blink if I looked up the standings in the Central on September 1st and saw the Cubs in 1st and the Cards 2.5 games back.

And while they don’t qualify as a sleeper, I did want to give my thoughts on the Indians since I used follow them regularly while living in Cleveland. I know they are the popular pick to win the Central, but I’m just not buying it. Look at their pitching. Cliff Lee is not going to put up Cy Young numbers again. He got rocked in spring training. I’m bullish on Fausto Carmona, but he has to prove that his sinker is as nasty as it was in 2007. The rest of it…ugh. Carl Pavano is the number three starter. That is all you need to know. As for the offense, it should be decent, but there are some question marks. Stick a fork in Hafner – he’s done. Has there been a more obvious juicer? Victor has to prove he’s healthy and rebound from a dreadful ’08 season. I like Choo (or is it Soo-Choo?), but I don’t think anyone expects him to keep hitting as well as he did the 2nd half of last year (or maybe I do after drafting him about 10 round too early in fantasy baseball). As far as I’m concerned, I have questions about the Indians winning the Central this year.

For my sleepers though, I’m going with….the Rockies and….the Rangers. I still can’t get over the fleecing that the Rangers gave the Braves a couple of years ago for Mark Teixeira. I’m excited to see what Elvis Andrus can do at short, and Neftali Feliz is going to be a star. I’m already pissed at that 17-9 record he is going to put up in 2011 with 200 k’s. It’s coming. I kind of like the Rockies too. Nobody’s talking about them, but I was really impressed with Ianetta in the WBC. I think he and McCann are going to be fighting it out for the next 5-10 years for NL starting catcher in the All-Star Game. Tulo and Ian Stewart are a pretty solid middle of the infield, and they seem to always have outfielders like Spilborghs and Brad Hawpe that quietly put up good numbers due to Coors. Plus, I’ve never seen Dexter Fowler play, but I already love the guy. He’s gotta be like a young Torii Hunter right?

3.The Yankees

I’m not a Yankees lover or hater. But I can’t wait for CC to get off to a shaky start, get booed off the mound at Yankee Stadium, and weigh in at 375 by September. I don’t think that marriage is going to end well, and I say that as a CC fan. And I also am giddy in anticipation for April to end with Teixeira sitting at .211 with 2 HR’s and 9 RBI’s. Yankees fans – prepare yourselves. If you’re thinking that he is going to carry the team with A-Rod out, you’re sorely mistaken. He is a brutal starter. I know I’ve written this before, but he cost the Braves last year any shot at respectability. It was June before he warmed up and they were already out of the race. Not that I’m bitter or anything.

Braves fans, can you imagine if the Braves had just hung on to Salty, Andrus and Feliz instead of trading them to the Rangers for Tex? They could have been trotting out a 2010 lineup of Elvis at short, Yunel Escobar moving to 2nd, Chipper and McCann, Jason Heyward and Jordan Schafer in the outfield and Freddy Freeman at 1st. Plus some combination of Tommy Hanson, Neftali Feliz, Jair Jurrjens, Javy Vazquez, Derek Lowe in the rotation. Yikes. The Braves would have pulled off the rebuilding without really going through an extended down period. Which brings us to…

4. Your 2009 Atlanta Braves

It wouldn’t be a season preview if I didn’t give my Braves outlook. I’ll start off by saying that I have no grand illusions of contending in the NL East. I would really just like them to be in the conversation in August and September, as opposed to last year's disaster. Whether you agree or not with the moves that Frank Wren made in the offseason, I have to admit that their pitching is in A LOT better shape than it was last year. Jo Jo Reyes made 22 starts and went 3-11 with a 5.81 ERA and 18 homers in 113 innings. Not good. Charlie Morton made 15 starts, was 4-8 with a 6.15 ERA and 9 homers allowed in 74 innings. You can’t win with your 4 and 5 starters putting up those numbers. Newcomers Javy Vazquez, Kenshin Kawakami and Derek Lowe at least give them the proverbial “innings eaters”, and I’m quietly optimistic that Vazquez’ return to the NL will revive his career. Plus, Kawakami has been really solid in the spring, and Bobby Cox can't stop raving about him. If the ol' skipper likes him, I'll believe.

Finally, I can’t contain my excitement that Jordan Schafer has apparently won the centerfield job with this week’s trade of Josh Anderson. The Braves haven’t had a young outfielder prospect in a long time – I guess since “The Natural” graced the cover of Sports Illustrated. I know it’s only spring training, but Francoeur has supposedly been laying off the breaking balls away and taking a ton of pitches and actually drawing walks. I’m a skeptic, but again, good signs early. (Side note- congratulations to Andruw Jones. He made the Rangers. How far has his career fallen that he had to fight just to make the Texas Rangers as the last bat off the bench.) Also, Tommy Hanson blew through the Arizona Fall League, winnig MVP as a pitcher. He picked right up with some dominating efforts in spring training. I love Tom Glavine, but as the 5th starter, he is a placeholder until Hanson is ready – which should be very shortly. The guy is a stud.

Add it all up, and I think that the Braves will be hanging around the fringe of the wild card race. At the very least, it’s good to see so many young potential superstars start to get integrated into the lineup and at more appearing on the horizon. The future looks very good down in Atlanta.

4B All the young guns

Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, Chris Volstad. Rick Porcello, Tommy Hanson, Jordan Schafer, Taylor Teagarden, Dexter Fowler, Elvis Andrus, Daniel Bard, Matt Wieters, David Price, Wade Davis, Cameron Maybin, Pablo Sandoval, Jordan Zimmerman, Colby Rasmus, Chris Davis, the young A’s pitchers. And that’s just off the top of my head.

With the economy making everyone wary of signing mediocre free agents, it’s become more important than ever to have young cheap talent coming through your system. I can’t remember a time when there was so much talent coming into the league.

5. Predictions
NL East – Phillies
NL Central – Cubs
NL West – Dodgers
AL East – Red Sox
AL Central – White Sox
AL West – Rangers
NL Wildcard – Mets
AL Wildcard – Rays
NLCS – Dodgers vs. Mets
ALCS – Red Sox vs. Rays
World Series – Red Sox over Dodgers
NL MVP – David Wright
AL MVP – Evan Longoria
NL Cy Young – Johan Santana (watch out for Josh Johnson!)
AL Cy Young – Going out on a limb here…Francisco Liriano
AL Rookie of the Year – Matt Wieters (didn’t bother to look to see if Rangers 1B Chris Davis was eligible. Probably not. But voters like home runs, which he should put up)
NL Rookie of the Year – Jordan Schafer!

Say it Ain't So

A very sad day for Braves fans everywhere. John Smoltz will be donning the Red Sox uniform this spring. All that's left from the glory years of America's Team is Bobby Cox (who will retire after this year for sure) and Chipper Jones (who is in the last year of his contract).

If this was Mike Hampton, or Tom Glavine or any other pitcher, I could see why the Braves would not have made an honest effort to resign Smoltz. And if Keith Law is reading this blog, you can stop right here and move on. This isn't about Smoltz's road K:BB ratio or what the Pitch FX data say about his diminished fastball. It's about keeping around a guy who has been with the Braves his entire major league career. A guy who has sacrificed for the team, whether it's pitching hurt - or jumping from starter to closer to starter again. A guy who is so loved in the Atlanta community that the Atlanta Journal Constitution website couldn't even handle all of the comments yesterday that were pouring in when the news broke that Smoltz was going to Boston.

It boiled down to 3 million dollars. For a team with a payroll that will eventually be closing in on $90 million, and with $25 mill still to spend this winter, the Braves didn't trust Smoltz enough to pony up $3 million more dollars. This despite the fact that all reports were that he was ahead of schedule in his rehab. I understand that the Braves did not want to have the same thing to happen with the pitching staff as did last season, when everyone got hurt (Hudson, Smoltz, Glavine, Hampton). But Smoltz wasn't going to be ready until May at the earliest, so it's not as if he would have been penciled into the #1 spot like last year. And it's not as if he would be blocking any young guys from pitching (God knows Braves fans have seen enough of Jo-Jo Reyes on the mound. I'd feel better about Smoltz pitching left handed with his right arm in a sling than I would about Reyes). They needed a veteran guy in the clubhouse and on the mound. As it is, their rotation is Jurrjens, Javy Vasquez and three question marks. And to top it off, instead of a one year $5 million dollar deal for Smoltz, you can put it in pen that Frank Wren will do something stupid like 3 years $42 million for Derek Lowe.

Which brings us to Frank Wren. This offseason has been a trainwreck. The pursuit of AJ Burnett for a ridiculous contract. The public Jake Peavy back and forth. The Rafael Furcal disaster. No offense to these fine groups of people, but I feel like I'm a Pirates or Royals fan. This type of stuff doesn't happen to the Braves. Or at least it didn't use to under John Schuerholz. To top it off, here is Chipper Jones reaction to the Smoltz news: "I am pissed. Very pissed. Deflated. Frustrated. It’s been a very long offseason, not a lot of stuff to really get excited about and then to have this it just is the icing on the cake for me." He goes on to say that the Braves management promised to at least discuss a contract negotiation, but hasn't heard a word yet.

Anyway, I guess that the Braves had their reasons for not signing Smoltz. To me though, even putting aside the fact that Smoltz is still a GOOD pitcher when he's healthy, the right move was to get an extra $3 million from the bank and keep John Smoltz in a Braves uniform. The guy is a flat out winner. It's a shame, and the glory days under John Schuerholz keep getting further and further in the rear view mirror

Francoeur to the Reds??

Interesting little blurb on MLB.com about the Reds possibly being interested in Jeff Francoeur.

Another interesting tidbit from Monday came via a Major League source, who said the Reds may have some interest in Jeff Francoeur. But the Braves are still providing every indication that they aren't actively shopping Francoeur.

"Frenchy" has been a little bit disappointing lately with those low OBP totals and a sudden loss of power, but there's no denying that he has talent and some possible upside. Reds GM Walt Jocketty actually has a pretty good track record for finding talented players who are underachieving and making trades for them (i.e. JD Drew, Jim Edmonds, Scott Rolen, etc). If he has interest in Francouer, I could get behind something like that. Francouer is still only 24 years old. Could be a good "buy low" candidate. Maybe he just needs a change of scenery.

Here are Francoeur's stats the last three years.

2006	ATL	162	651	83	169	24	6	29	103	23	132	1	6	.260	.293	.449	.742
2007	ATL	162	642	84	188	40	0	19	105	42	129	5	2	.293	.338	.444	.782
2008	ATL	155	599	70	143	33	3	11	71	39	111	0	1	.239	.294	.359	.653

At the age of 22, he hit 29 bombs and had 103 RBI. With The Legend of Jay Bruce, Joey "Ballgame" Votto, and 1st round draft pick, Yonder Alonso, all hitting from the left side of the plate down the road, the Reds are desperate for some punch on the right side of the plate. I'm not sure what the Braves would be looking for in return, but I'd be inclined to give up some young talent for a guy like Francoeur. Heck, if the Reds wanted to throw Aaron Harang or Bronson Arroyo into a deal to get some additional Braves prospects in return and maybe even someone like Yunel Escobar, I would explore that as well.

All I think about is that everyone was writing off a talented young shortstop named Brandon Phillips a few years ago, and he suddenly blossomed with the Reds after a change of scenery . Francoeur could easily be a disaster, but it might be worth a shot.

If the Reds actually made a play for Francoeur, they could have a potential middle of the order lineup of:

2. Votto
3. Bruce
4. Franceour
5. Alonso
6. Phillips
7. Encarnacion

Throw in Johnny Cueto and Edinson Volquez and some of the other young arms out there (including a still only 26 year old possible sleeper in Micah Owings who has apparently been lights out in fall ball), and that team could be awfully interesting.

One thing I will say about the Reds at this point is that I'm glad Jocketty immediately shot down those rumors about a Jermaine Dye for Homer Bailey trade to the White Sox. There is absolutely NO REASON to give up a 22 year old former #1 pick who still has upside for freaking Jermaine Dye. Dye is a good veteran player, but he has one year left on his deal. Why would a Reds team that has zero shot at contending in 2009 give up a young player like that for a one year rental player?? That trade never made any sense.

I'm not opposed to exploring a Homer Bailey trade at all (he has clearly regressed and lost some of his electric stuff, the Reds actually have a surplus of young arms, and Bailey has been so poorly handled and mismanaged that he's now out of options after this year), but it better be for a young player in return. Maybe a young middle infielder who can hit leadoff or a young centerfield prospect or something. But no rebuilding team should be giving up young pitchers for old veterans. That is the old line of thinking for the Reds. I hope Jocketty brings smarter leadership than that, and I'm glad that he looked borderline angry when someone asked him about that proposed deal. Maybe Jocketty was leaking rumors to the press to drive up the bidding for Homer Bailey. I hope so.

One giant cloud still hanging over this franchise though: Johnnie B. Baker, Jr. Ugh. Dusty is already out in the media clamoring for a veteran bat, and I hope that Jocketty ignores him. This team is not even close to competing. Stay with the youth, rebuild the right way, and hope that the team starts to win in 2010.

-- As for this Reds-Baltimore trade involving Ryan Freel for Ramon Hernandez, I can't really complain about this type of trade. I know I just spent the last 500 words saying the Reds need to be entirely focused on the future, but there's nothing wrong with making a logical move that can help you solidify a position of need in the present without giving up anything. Ryan Freel was dead weight on this Reds team. When you have as many needs as the Reds, the last thing you need to be doing is paying $4 million to a utility guy who gets hurt all the time. Freel is great for about two ten day streaks a year, and then he's either slumping or hurt for the rest of the year. I like Freel, but he provides no value to this Reds team. Giving up a utility guy for a guy who is going to be our #1 catcher is fine with me, especially when it sounds like the Orioles are going to pick up the contract difference.

Ramon Hernandez isn't exactly the Geovany Soto or anything, but he hit 15 bombs last year in 450 at bats. Put Hernandez in that bandbox Great American Ballpark, and he could easily hit 20 homers next year. Heck, two years ago, he hit 23 homers with 90 RBIs. The Baltimore beat writers seem to think he needed a change of scenery. The Reds started Paul Bako, David Ross, and Javier Valentin last year, and I think those guys combined for about 10 homers in about 550 at bats. The Reds have had a black hole at catcher for about a decade. Hernandez is a league average catcher with some upside. It's at least somewhat of an upgrade.

Hernandez has one year left on his deal, and the Orioles are going to pay a significant chunk of his salary. It's a contract year for Hernandez. The Reds can keep Hernandez for a year, make a decision on his option in 2010 if he plays well, take draft picks if not (he's apparently a Type A free agent) and then hopefully one of their young catching prospects will be ready by then. Makes sense to me.

--One other rumor that won't go away. Joey Votto to Toronto straight up for Alex Rios. WOW. Color me intrigued by that one. I love Joey Votto and thought he had an incredible year and has a bright future, and I'm not taking him for granted at all. I don't want to say that first basemen with pop in their bat are a dime a dozen, but there quite a few of those types out there. Votto is mainly a valuable piece because he's young and cheap, but I don't know if he has that much upside from what he gave the Reds last year. A guy like Rios with his speed and glove and bat would be a huge upgrade to the Reds' outfield and give them a defensive presence that they haven't had in a long time in the outfield.

I don't know if anything will come of it, but I'd at least be talking to the Jays if they are interested. I would certainly be happy with Joey Votto on this roster for many years to come, but I am not opposed to Jocketty exploring all options. The only "untradeables" in my eyes are Jay Bruce, Edinson Volquez, and Johnny Cueto.

--Not sure what I think about this Francisco Rodriguez signing by the Mets. On paper, this is a great deal for the Mets, and they are getting a 27 year old closer widely considered to be one of the best in the game. And it's not like they gave him a 6-7 year deal or anything. For three years, they are presumably getting his best years and won't be on the hook for him if his arm starts to break down in his 30s. The Mets have had all kinds of problems with their bullpen. KRod should give them a dominant guy on the back end, and he's gotta be excited to be coming to the NL.

On the other hand, I am always leery of giving big money to closers. There are some elite closers of course, but some of these closers are "system guys." They get into a good groove in an organization with a certain pitching coach, and then they can't replicate those results with other teams. Part of the reason the Angels have had such a good bullpen is that they have a great coaching staff in place to nurture those guys.

Keith Law appears to like it though, so the Mets have that going for them. As much as I hate to admit it, Law is my go-to-guy for info during the MLB offseason.

The Mets obviously have a ton of money, so the finances aren't really a factor with them. I think it's a good signing considering the length of the deal and KRod's success, but there's always some risk with these closers.

--As for the Cubs, if Hendry somehow pulls off this deal to get Jake Peavy for about 45 cents on the dollar and without having to give up a stud like Soto or Samardzija, he will continue to solidify his legend for stealing players in their prime for overrated prospects. How does he do it??

The Cubs could be on the verge of landing Jake Peavy in his absolute prime at the age of 27. They were somehow able to pull in Rich Harden as well last year at the ripe age of 27. The Cubs would have a frontline rotation of Zambrano, Peavy, and Harden all in their late 20s to go with Ryan Dempster and Ted Lilly. I can't see the Cubs losing to anyone next year with that rotation.

My biggest fear as a fan of an NL Central team was that the Cubs would someday wake up and get competent leadership to go with their huge revenue dollars. The Cubs not only have the dollars to take on big free agents (Soriano, Fukudome, etc), but they also have the dollars to trade for players in their prime looking for contract extensions (ARam, Derrek Lee, Harden, Peavy, etc). And they seem to have enough hyped-up prospects that other teams bite on these trades.

The Hendry/Piniella braintrust has the potential to wipe out the rest of the NL Central for the next decade. I gotta hand it to the Cubs for figuring it out, but it could be a long time in the wilderness for fans of the Reds, Cards, Brewers, 'Stros, and Pirates.

Javy Vazquez

Wow, interesting Braves trade for Javy Vazquez. Vazquez is a solid veteran pitcher, but I can't say that I'm a huge fan of this move. What exactly is Javy Vazquez going to do for the Braves next year?? Unless Wren is planning to make a few significant moves this offseason to make the Braves contenders right away, this trade seems like a waste. Plus, they gave up one of their better prospects in Tyler Flowers. They aren't really ready to compete with the Mets or the Phillies, so why not get on with a rebuilding process?? If anything, the Braves should be looking to unload some of their veterans for young guns. Going out and bringing in Javy Vazquez just prolongs their current mediocrity. He makes them a little better, but does he put them on a path toward a division title?? No. And they're going to be paying him $11.5 million the next two years, so he puts a dent in payroll flexibility.

Perception is everything though I guess. Five years ago, I would have been singing the praises of John Schuerholz for "stealing" Javy Vazquez and predicting that he would revive his career under the tutelage of Bobby Cox. Now, it just looks like lipstick on a pig. Frank Wren is no Schuerholz, so it's hard to give him the benefit of the doubt here.

Braves Win!

Sad day for America's Team and the baseball world with the passing of Skip Caray. As someone who grew up in Philadelphia as a Braves fan, I spent many a summer night with Skip, Pete, Don and Joe. And of course, I will watch baseball for the rest of my life and won't see a more spine-tingling play than Sid's Slide to send the Braves to the 1992 World Series. There isn't a greater visual in the sports world then the sheer look of unrestrained joy on Sid Bream's face.

Here is a link to a short video which includes Skip's legendary call of the play. I still get goose bumps listening to it. Well worth taking the two minutes (unless you happen to reside in the western part of Pennsylvania. Move along please for your own sanity.) Braves fans everywhere will miss you Skip.

A lotta room in right-center, if he hits one there we can dance in the streets. The 2-1. Swung, line drive left field! One run is in! Here comes Bream! Here’s the throw to the plate! He is…safe! Braves win! Braves win! Braves win! Braves win!…Braves win! They may have to hospitalize Sid Bream; he’s down at the bottom of a huge pile at the plate. They help him to his feet. Frank Cabrera got the game winner! The Atlanta Braves are National League champions again! This crowd is going berserk, listen!