The World's Greatest Sporting Event

World Cup 2010

2010 sees the world’s game host its first ever World Cup on the African continent in South Africa. I hoped to put together a detailed group by group analysis, but unfortunately the time got away and now the tournament begins tomorrow. Given that, we’ll keep this to a brief analysis of the favorites, some dark horses, and a few brief thoughts on the U.S.

Favorites

Spain - If you had to pick one team to win, it has to be Spain. La Furia Roja has been one an epic run. From February of 2007 through June of 2009, the team did not lose a match in 35 played (winning 32 including 15 in a row), tying the record held by Brazil. Of course, that loss came at the hands of the U.S. at the Confederations cup last summer. Since losing that match, they’ve rattled off another 12 straight wins making them 44-1-3 over the last 3 years. Not only are they good, but they play the most exciting football of any team on the planet. When Spain is hitting on all cylinders, it is as beautiful as the game gets. If you haven’t seen Spain's second goal from the warm up earlier this week against Poland you should (all goals here):

Many people consider Brazil to be a close second (if not a co-favorite), particularly given Spain’s penchant for failing to live up to expectations in big tournaments. But this team has enough experience and got over the hump with its 2008 Euro victory to be the single favorite for the World cup.

Brazil – While Spain could be characterized as playing the traditional South American style of beautiful, flowing soccer, Brazil, once the epitome of that style, has converted to a tougher, defensive minded, win at all costs European style of football under Dunga. I think the biggest piece of news most Americans saw about Brazil was the choice to leave former stars Ronaldo and Ronaldiñho off the squad. But they are old (Ronaldo) and out of shape (Ronaldiñho), and the team will be better off for it. In fact, Brazil fans are probably more upset about the lack of some of the younger up and coming talent playing in Brazil.

But, there are concerns with the Brazil. Is Kaka in form? Is he healthy? He had a poor season with Real Madrid. How much is this team relying on Robinho to score goals (who had a very hard time even seeing the field this year with his club team)? They have a fairly difficult draw (Portugal and Ivory Coast), particularly if Drogba is able to play for IC as reports are now indicating. There is now even a recent scare over the health of their goalie.

But, as with any other sport, defense wins championships and their defense is solid. And while their group draw is tough, they are still head and shoulders above Portugal and the Ivory Coast. If Kaka can find his form and Robinho and Fabiano can find the net, Brazil is certainly the team most likely to challenge the Spanish ascendancy.

England, Argentina, and Netherlands – Based on the bookies’ estimates, England and Argentina are the next two favorites, but I’m not buying it. Beyond Spain and Brazil, I can’t see another “favorite”. And if I did, it would be The Netherlands, not the England or Argentina.

England has significant question marks. How is team chemistry? You don’t have your team captain get his teammate’s (now ex-teammate) girlfriend pregnant without some sort of lingering chemistry concern. Their second captain has now been ruled out of the Cup. Can Gerrard step up and wear the band? Is Rooney healthy? He’s been carrying lingering injuries since February. If Garreth Barry is banged up, who steps into the defensive midfield position? That is the underrated key to England’s success. Barry has the discipline to hang back in the defensive midfield allowing both Lampard and Gerrard to rift more forward into attacking positions. The other key questions to the Three Lions’ success are for more obvious: Can Rooney go at 100% and can Ledley King/Michael Dawson/or someone else pair with John Terry at the back for a strong central defense. Luckily, England has an almost free pass into the round of 16 given their easy group draw (more on that later).

Argentina also got lucky with an incredibly easy group (Greece, South Korea, and Nigeria). Under the legendary Diego Maradona, Argentina almost didn’t qualify. He’s failed to figure out how to use arguably the best player in the world (Lionel Messi) effectively. He also made some questionable selections in his team selection. I think based on their easy draw and lucky group line-up (their round of 16 opponent should also be fairly weak), they can easily make the round of 8. While anything can happen at that point, I would not feel comfortable placing the money on Argentina.

The Netherlands may very well be the 2^nd most fun team to watch (see below) in the tournament after Spain. While they have some question marks at the back, no one can question their ability to score goals. The key question with the Dutch is if they can get over their own hump of failing in big tournaments. They blew through the so-called “group of Death in Euro 2008 at a combined score of 9-1 only to lose in the quarters. But their easy group draw and the ability of many players to score at any time makes the Dutch fully capable of winning the Cup. In fact, I like Dutch as a slight sleeper pick right behind Spain.

Dark Horses

It is very difficult to identify dark horses in this tournament because after the couple favorites (and the Dutch in my book), many of the teams are fairly equal. Additionally, the lack of a real Group of Death and really only one group where there are 3 world class teams, it is difficult to identify the teams to get over that group stage and make a run. Additionally, one of the most overplayed angles of the tournament leading up to the draw was the likely success of the African teams given the home continent advantage. However, I don’t see that happening. A combination of bad draws, injuries, and the fact that many countries just aren’t that close geographically means it is unlikely that more than a team or two from Africa (if that) will advance. Given that, here are a few teams that are probably not in the top two in their group but could still advance:

Ivory Coast – This is the easy one. If they were in any group, and maybe even if Drogba were even 100% healthy, the IC would not qualify for a dark horse. The IC is actually not even the African team with the highest FIFA ranking (goes to Cameroon), but if Drogba can play, the IC has at least a chance against anyone. If he plays, I like them to advance over Portugal, and even if he doesn’t, I think they still have a chance to take 2^nd from the Portuguese. In fact, if Drogba can get to 100%, I think they are the “dark horse” for the title.

Serbia – They have a strong back line pairing with Premier League standouts Vidic and Ivanovic and an all name team candidate in Stankovic to manage the midfield. Group D (Germany, Serbia, Ghana, Australia) is a tight race for 2^nd. Ghana advanced in the previous World Cup and Serbia has a reputation for failing under pressure. But I like Serbia as a team to advance and possibly even sneak a win in the round of 16.

How about U.S.A?

The U.S. lucked out with Slovenia and Algeria. In fact, I’d even say we lucked out with England as the premier team in the group and playing England first. England has a history of starting tournaments slowly. Combined with the issued I mentioned above, they are a beatable (or drawable) team. I still expect the U.S. to lose on Saturday, but think that advancing is still a probable outcome, though I will certainly be hoping for a 0-0 draw in the other match. If we do advance in 2^nd, we have the benefit of playing the winner of group D (likely a beatable Germany team). Given that, I think the U.S. has a legitimate chance to match the 2002 quarterfinals performance. The key match will be the match against Slovenia. This match is a must win. Since Slovenia plays England last, and England may have clinched qualifying already, they will get an easier match against England. They also open with a likely win against Algeria. It makes the match against Slovenia an absolute must win.

Most people in the U.S. have heard of Landon Donovan. But here are a few other players to watch:

Tim Howard (GK) – Likely the best player on the team. Howard continues the tradition of true world class goalkeepers from the U.S. Goalkeeper is the only position where the U.S. has consistently produced world class talent over the past 15 – 20 years.

Clint Dempsey – The other most media targeted player on the team, Clint had a great season for Fulham and has had good performances for the national team lately. His (somewhat deserved) reputation is that he can get lazy at time and then produce moments of brilliance. I think the key to keeping Dempsey focused and in the game is actually to play him up front (he usually plays in the midfield), where he may see fewer balls, but have more scoring opportunities.

Ideal Line-up:

GK: Howard
Defenders: Cherundolo, DeMerit, Onyewu, Bocanegra
Midfielders: Donovan, Bradley, Edu, Feilhaber
Forwards: Altidore, Dempsey

This linep-up is dependent on Gooch’s (Onyewu’s) health. If he really isn’t at 100%, you’re left with Goodson at the other centerback, but that doesn’t bring me nearly as much comfort as a healthy Onyewu. It also contains 3 central midfielders, but I would envision more of a 4-5-1 with Dempsey playing forward on the wing behind Altidore. Edu and Feilhaber and can interchange between playing back in a central defensive position and pushing a little more forward to create opportunities for Dempsey and Altidore.

Other thoughts

Interesting games to watch, particularly on the weekends, in the group stage:

U.S. v. England (Saturday, June 12) – Dominance of the English speaking world
Argentia v. Nigeria (Saturday, June 12) – Can Argentina gel or will Africa claim a major victory?
Ivory Coast v. Portugal (Tuesday, June 15) – Key match for 2^nd place in the toughest group
Netherlands v. Japan (Saturday, June 19) – Watch beautiful being played on the weekend
Brazil v. Ivory Coast (Sunday, June 20) – One of the best matches of the opening round

Players to Watch For:

Messi (Argentina) – Widely considered the best player in the world based on his club performance for Barcelona. Has yet to live up to potential for the national team.
Ronaldo (Portugal) – Probably the world’s most famous player in the tournament. Biggest challenger to Messi in the media based on club performance
Xavi (Spain) – The underrated component of Barcelona’s fearsome attack, he makes both his club team and his national team tick.
Sneijder, Robben, and Van Persie (Netherlands) – When all are healthy, they make up an incredible attacking trio
Kaka (Brazil) – When in form, one of the most exciting counter-attacking players in the world.

Group Stage Picks:

Group A – France, Mexico
Group B – Argentina, Nigeria
Group C – England, U.S.A.
Group D – Serbia, Germany
Group E – Netherlands, Denmark
Group F – Italy, Paraguay
Group G – Brazil, Ivory Coast
Group H – Spain, Chile

Lady Luck Frowns on US Mens Soccer

Today in Beijing, the Men's Olympic National Team failed to qualify for the quarterfinals after looking like it had won the group in about the 92nd minute of the match against the Netherlands on Sunday. While the team was not widely expected to advance given the difficulty of the group (Netherlands and Nigeria generally being regarded as superior squads), the loss is still gut-wrenching at this point given how it all played out.

If the U.S. had come out in the first match against Japan and laid an egg, most people would have probably stopped watching and it would have been a relatively painless 3 and out. However, the team claimed a 1-0 victory and three points. That combined with a draw in the Nigeria - Netherlands match set the U.S. up for potential success in the group stage. However, the 1-0 final score belies the actual play of the match. The U.S. were lucky to escape with a victory as Japan had significantly more opportunities than the U.S. but failed to capitalize. Unfortunately, the squad's luck would slowly turn around over the next couple matches.


In the second match against a Dutch team that just finished repeating as the U-23 UEFA champions, widely regarded as one of the favorites for the tournament, the U.S. appeared outclassed at first. However, after settling in around the 30th minute, the U.S played some exceptional soccer. The back four finally seemed to gel and Freddy Adu was driving the ball forward with the exceptional skill that he has always flashed but consistently delivered. The decision to sub Altidore in for an under-performing Rogers was also an excellent decision that the U.S. capitalized on to take a 2-1 lead. Unfortunately, this is where their luck changed. In the 93rd minute, after an unfortunate foul just outside the box, the Dutch's Sibon brilliantly sent the free kick under the wall and into the goal to tie the match 2-2. It is truly unfortunate, because the U.S. outplayed one of the best U-23 squads in the world for about 60 minutes of the match. To make matters worse, with the match appearing to be in hand, both Adu and Michael Bradley picked up their 2nd yellow card in as many games and therefore would have to sit for the 3rd match. Things would only get worse from here, however.

That brings us to this morning in the U.S., bright and early. Up at 4 a.m. to watch the third match against a Nigerian squad, which was also without 2 players due to yellow. You can imagine my ire with less than 4 minutes into the match Michael Orozco picks up a red card and we're stuck playing 10 v. 11 for 90 minutes! Many people will complain that so early in a match, a weak elbow like that was not deserving of a red card, particularly given that the 2 players were somewhat tangled. However, I don't think this is that great of an argument. Was it a weak red? Probably. However, Orozco has got to know that you cannot throw an intentional elbow (which it clearly was) directly in front of the ref and expect to get away with it. Things like that are one of the focus points of FIFA to try and "clean up" the game. Throw in the fact that the U.S. historically does not get much benefit of the doubt on the international level and you just can't do that. The rest of the squad played valiantly, but it is extremely tough to play down a man for a full match. When Parkhurst made one of his relatively few defensive errors in 39th, Nigeria capitalized with a beautiful goal to take a 1-0 lead.

At that point it looked like the U.S. was done in their match. However, a draw in the Japan Argentina match would still send the U.S. on to the next round. Unfortunately, Argentina went up 1-0 on Japan and the U.S. were forced to go into all out attack. Nigeria, however, was able to mount a successful counter and make it 2-0 in the 80th. The U.S. finally got on the board with a PK after one of the dumbest goalie decisions I've ever seen when the Nigerian goalie came way out of goal and made a cleats up tackle inside the box. However, it was too little too late even though the U.S. did have a late header off the post that would have tied the match.

It was clear throughout the match that the U.S. missed Adu and Bradley in the midfield as Kljestan and Szetela (and later Feilhaber) never seemed to get it together. Even a man down, the lazy passes and several turnovers left the U.S. with even fewer opportunities than they should have. I'm also not sure I agree with with the substitution of Feilhaber for Altidore. We either needed additional help on the defensive line (Rogers was stuck playing woefully out of position) or additional ability to counter. Pulling out our best offensive threat for another midfielder didnt' seem to make much sense.

What's this mean for U.S. Soccer? To be honest, I'm not sure how much we can take away from the Olympics that we didn't already know. The U.S. continues to show flashes of having the ability to compete on a global level. However, they still seem unable to sustain the performance for long periods of time (multiple matches - or even full matches at times). Some of the drives by Adu in the match against the Dutch were pure beauty. However, against Japan, he constantly seemed frustrated and spent more time complaining than succesfully driving at goal. Altidore showed some real promise as a substitute (especially against the Dutch), but also seemed like he committed some needless fouls that slowed us down against Japan. It is hard to say much about him against the Dutch as the red card forced him to play out of position. If Adu, Bradley, and Altidore can continue to develop in Europe (where all 3 play professionally), then maybe the Men's National Team can really start to develop and compete internationally. However, I don't see much potential for anything better than making the round of 16 (and only that if we get a good draw) in 2010 unless the tream really starts to play more consistently.