Aloha ACC...Aloha Big East

Wow.  Don't say we didn't warn you.

Here we were worrying about the hornet's nest Brian Kelly drop-kicked to ignite his latest QB controversy.  Instead, Jack Swarbrick delivered a roundhouse kick to the potentially divisive situation that would make Chuck Norris blush.  A headache of headlines became mere afterthought in the wake of the sensational news that Notre Dame bid adieu to the BEast for the greener pastures of the ACC.

Pick your cliche decision-making rationale: conference stability, brand market exposure, bowl game options, Olympic sport competition, academic fit of peer institutions.  At the end of the day, the whole package proved too great to pass.  A standing ovation is due Swarbrick and his staff for having the creativity and cajones to orchestrate this deal.

The move is terrific on many levels for ND, which we'll dig into deeper in the coming days.  Too bad this news cycle completely dwarfs a top 10 vs. top 20 matchup with a historic rival.  Sorry Sparty, but whatever extra hype and bluster this year's Rose Bowl-caliber squad is due has been usurped by the Bolting Conference Boogie.  We all know the music never stops at the NCAA Realignment Dance Marathon.  Thankfully, our new do-si-do partner is in great shape, sexy as hell and looking to settle down for a while.

A match made in program heaven.  

Notre Dame vs. Wake Forest - First Time for Everything

Dan: Notre Dame

Wake is not very good. They are in a rough stretch here. There were slammed by VT and UNC and barely beat Duke. For a while, they were a little bit undervalued from a gambling perspective, but not recently. ND has the ability to dominate and I think they have renewed vigor after the USC post-game shenanigans. ND wins going away because Tommy takes care of the ball.

ND 31 Wake 13


Jeremy: Notre Dame
Not a whole lot to say about this one.  It was heartening to see the Irish finally take care of business against the service academies this year.  And I'd expect more of the same against the 3 ACC sisters of the poor up next on the Irish schedule.  Wake does have that impressive win over FSU, which, in retrospect, looks a whole lot like our USF game from earlier this year.  The Deacs are a little beat up in the backfield, and word is they may have to start a true freshman this week, but the Irish can expect Jim Grobe to have his squad ready, and The Dash will be hopping for the late start.  But Wake doesn't have enough to keep up, and this ends up looking quite a bit like the Purdue beatdown.

ND 38  Wake 17

Jimmy: Notre Dame

Sound the sousa maphones for the 1^st ever play date between the Fighting Irish and Demon Deacons.  First things first, can someone explain exactly what a Demon Deacon is?  Is it literally an almost collared priest who’s possessed by a devilish spirit?  If so, then Notre Dame du Lac’s trip to Winston-Salem is more than just a 60-minute scrimmage that counts.  Why not exorcise the demons that plague the Dash and return Wake Forest to their original state of grace as the Deacons?  Every punishing defensive stop should be echoed by “The power of Christ compels you!”  Not sure how many Traveling Irish will invade BB&T Field, but this would be a great student chant next year.  (Note to self: Write the Observer the week of November 17, 2012). 

Demons and deacons talk aside, this ACC matchup offers a glimpse of what conference affiliation on the eastern seabord would feel like.  As Matt can attest (after completing his MBA at Wake), football culture is an after thought in Winston-Salem.  The 31,000+ “cathedral” formerly known as Groves Stadium reflects that.  With b-ball season starting, Jim Grobe's team has lost the undivided attention of his fanbase (assuming he had it to begin with). 

Now that the kumbaya come together moment of 2011 has pased, Brian Kelly can keep the accelerator on the floor and mop up this ACC tripleheader.  (Is it brilliant scheduling or unfortunate luck that Wake, Maryland & BC are all underachieving.  No complaints here as the team needs victories, and it beats scheduling the Western Michigans of the world).  Fully confident the runaway dual locomotive attack of Wood and Gray keeps gaining steam.  We've said it before, but it bears repeating, this offensive line is playing outstanding.  This romp will be a nice commercial diversion from its prime-time TV counterpart. Go Irish!

ND 45  Wake 17

Mike: Notre Dame

Phil: Notre Dame

Leave it to the Irish to play a complete, carefree game against an inferior opponent on basic cable, one week after laying an egg in primetime against a marquee team. So frustrating. What I know about Wake this year is that they beat an overrated FSU team. What I know about this game is that it will be watched secondary to Bama-LSU. I am hoping Rees, Floyd, Wood, and Gray can again TCB. They should be, as very few people will be watching. Bring on 2012!

Irish 38 Wake 21

Stock Report

Like the stock market, college football wagering is all about value. In order to beat the system, the sports bettor must obviously locate teams whose true worth is incongruent with the perception of the gambling community at large. Fortunately, early season games are fertile ground for the savvy gambler, as the various teams have not developed a sufficient body of work from which strong conclusions can be drawn. As such, I have assembled my preliminary report of college football teams that seem to be undervalued or overvalued. This analysis, of course, is for informational purposes only and is not meant to condone gambling of any sort. With that disclaimer, here goes…

Undervalued

Virginia Tech- According to Stassen’s preseason consensus, which represents a simple average of the major annual publications (e.g., Phil Steele, USA Today, Athlon, etc.), Virginia Tech is rated at 20th nationally. This represents Tech’s lowest preseason ranking in five years and a departure from its top-ten preseason and postseason ranking last year. Based upon a superficial look at Tech’s roster, the reasons for this decrease are manifest. After all, (1) the Hokies are coming off a bowl loss to Kansas, (2) they lost all of their top running backs and receivers, (3) standout defensive players Brandon Flowers and Chris Ellis are now in the NFL and (4) a possible quarterback controversy looms between veteran Sean Glennon and sophomore and former hotshot recruit Tyrod Taylor.

Notwithstanding these factors, I believe that Tech will run roughshod through the ACC Coastal Division again, en route to another BCS bowl and top-10 finish. Why? For starters, Coach Frank Beamer has built this program into a national power with defense and special teams, as opposed to an explosive offense. While Tech has certainly seen its share of explosive skill position players come through Blacksburg, such as Lee Suggs and Kevin Jones (a/k/a “The Untouchables”), it has also proven that it can win without such players, as in 2005 and 2007. More importantly, defensive coordinator Bud Foster’s track record is astounding. From 2004-07, Foster’s vaunted “Lunch Pail Defense” has finished 4th, 1st, 1st and 4th in the nation- not just the ACC- in total defense. With outstanding defensive players such as Victor “Macho” Harris (great nickname, by the way) and Beamer’s customary special teams magic, the Hokies should be able to stifle the rest of the ACC without requiring an extraordinary offensive effort.

Nebraska- As indicated by Stassen, the general consensus (except for noted contrarian Phil Steele) is that Nebraska will finish either fourth or fifth in the Big 12 North. Under new coach Bo Pelini, however, I expect Herbie Husker to awaken from his slumber and challenge nouveau riche programs Missouri and Kansas for the division crown. In 2007, Nebraska brought shame to its proud Blackshirt tradition by surrendering 37.9 points per game, including 40 at home against Ball State, 65 against Colorado and a staggering 76 at Kansas. Despite the horrific performance of the defense, former head coach Bill Callahan’s West Coast offense actually performed admirably and several key performers return, most notably of which is tailback Marlon Lucky.

Although he proved to be a failure at coach, Callahan’s recruiting success at Nebraska was well documented. Nebraska’s roster is stocked with many promising recruits and, from a pure talent standpoint, there is no reason to believe that any team in the Big 12 North will be more skilled than the Huskers. In addition, during Pelini’s only year as defensive coordinator in Lincoln (2003), the Blackshirts finished second nationally in total defense at 14.46 points per game, compared to 45th in 2002 and 71st in 2004. Thus, it is reasonable to expect immediate and substantial improvement from the defense with Pelini at the helm. Given Nebraska’s overall raw talent vis-à-vis the rest of the league and the expected coaching upgrade, a New Years Day bowl appears to be an appropriate goal for Nebraska.

Iowa- It appears that the bloom is off the rose for Kirk Ferentz. After three consecutive top-ten finishes in 2002-2004, Iowa has regressed to the middle of the pack in the Big Ten over the past few years. In addition, Ferentz has presided over a recent spate of arrests and suspensions, including ongoing allegations that the Athletic Department attempted to cover up a rape by several players. Amid this firestorm of controversy off the field and Iowa’s recent struggles on the field, it is unsurprising that Iowa is a consensus 8th place pick in the Big Ten, per Stassen.

While the trend line is obviously negative for Iowa, I think that the Hawkeyes are primed for a bounce back year in 2008 for several reasons. The primary reason is the remaining talent level. Ferentz has continued to recruit well as the program has slipped from its 2002-04 level, especially along the offensive line. In many ways, Iowa’s offensive line resembled Notre Dame’s offensive line last year, as highly touted, but inexperienced, players struggled to develop cohesiveness. I expect the talented Hawkeye offensive line, as well as second year quarterback Jake Christiansen, to improve significantly this year. In light of the soft early schedule (Maine, FIU and the annual “Cy-Hawk” rivalry at Iowa State), the team should be able establish early momentum and gain some much needed momentum heading into the Big Ten season. The Hawkeyes aren’t going to unseat Ohio State as the conference champion, but count on them to rally behind the embattled Ferentz and put together a strong 8 or 9 win season.

Overvalued

Texas Tech- This year’s trendy pick seems to be that Texas Tech will overtake Texas and/or Oklahoma in the Big 12 South. According to many pundits, the Red Raiders have upgraded their defensive talent to a competitive level which, combined with their explosive offense led by Graham Harrell and Michael Crabtree, will enable them to reach double digits wins.

Although I do not doubt that Tech will score points in bunches under head coach and buccaneer aficionado Mike Leach, I have not seen any probative evidence to suggest that their defense will improve. A cursory review of the Scout or Rivals recruiting rankings shows that Tech remains well behind their traditional South division superiors in terms of talent. Furthermore, while the Raiders will play their usual slate of out of conference tomato cans, they must visit Oklahoma and Kansas, along with tough home games against Texas and Nebraska. Until proven otherwise, therefore, I cannot take this team seriously as a contender in the Big 12.

West Virginia- Per Stassen again, every preseason magazine predicts West Virginia to finish first in the Big East. The Mountaineers will be led again by standout quarterback Pat White, who returns for his 12th year in Morgantown, and sophomore sensation Noel Devine at running back. Additionally, with three children at age 20, the precocious Devine is on pace to challenge such breeding legends as Shawn Kemp and Calvin Murphy. Despite this offensive star power, however, I believe that West Virginia’s preseason hype, like Devine’s offspring, is illegitimate.

Following Rich Rodriguez’s well publicized jump to Michigan in the offseason, West Virginia turned to assistant Bill Stewart as head coach. While Stewart has some prior experience and he will benefit from a soft schedule in 2008, the balance of power in the Big East appears to have already shifted. The offense loses star running back Steve Slaton, folk hero Owen Schmitt and dynamic receiver Darius Reynaud, while the defense loses multiple contributors on the line and secondary. Moreover, even though West Virginia has shown a willingness offer a scholarship to anyone with a pulse, including, inter alia, Devine, Pacman Jones, Chris Henry and convicted armed robber/current backup linebacker Pat Lazear, former coach Rodriguez has left somewhat of an empty cupboard beyond the starting unit. Given White’s propensity for injury, a suspect defense, an increased workload on the diminutive Devine and the aforementioned coaching change, it should be a relaxed autumn for the couch arson investigation team of the Morgantown Police Department.

Over / Unders: The Atlantic Coast Conference

Since Doug's Pac-10 post was so well-received by our thousands (hundreds? tens?) of readers, and being that in two weeks I will be driving a U-Haul straight into the heart of ACC country, here are some picks on the fortunes of arguably the weakest of the BCS conferences. Again, these over/unders are straight from the experts at vegasinsider.com.

ACC Overview - If everything goes by the book this year in the ACC, you may want to tune your television sets elsewhere on Saturday afternoons. There are two HUGE favorites, a slew of teams pegged for mediocrity, one frisky under the radar team and then some downright dogs at the bottom of the conference. At the ACC media day, Clemson received 59 of the 65 votes to win the Atlantic Division. Meanwhile, Virginia Tech received 58 of 65 votes to take home the prestigious Coastal Division title (raise your hand if you knew the ACC had an Atlantic and a Coastal division).

There are some intriguing storylines, including the post Matt-Ryan era at BC, the rise of UNC under Butch Davis, the resurrection of Miami under Randy Shannon, and the attempted revival of Duke under David Cutcliffe. But when it comes down to it, the ACC inspires most to dream of Midnight Madness in October on most campuses and this year doesn't appear to be any different.

DUKE - 3 wins - OVER

How's this for a bold prediction: Duke will begin the season 3-0. The opening schedule consists of 3 home games against James Madison, Northwestern and Navy. Last year's team won at Northwestern and lost a heartbreaker to Navy by 3. This years team returns 17 starters from last year including decent QB Thad Lewis. Of course the big change is David Cutcliffe is in as head coach. While I don't see and Ole Miss like rising from the ashes to form a legit program, I think that the Dukies will find another win on the schedule, most likely at Vandy or NC State at home. That's cause enough for a ticker tape parade through the streets of Durham before everyone turns their attention back to Coach K fresh off his Olympic Gold.

VIRGINIA - 4.5 wins - UNDER
If you would have told me that UVA would lose their first game to Wyoming last year and still go 9-4 I would have said no freaking way. But a closer look at their results shows one of the flukier seasons in recent memory. They won an amazing 5 games by one or two points and were 101st in the country in total offense. With Chris Long gone and starting QB Jameel Sewell suspended for the year for academics, it could be a harsh dose of reality in Charlottesville. A brutal last 3 games of at Wake, Clemson, at Virginia Tech could get ugly.

GEORGIA TECH - 5.5 wins - OVER

After watching Tech absolutely destroy Notre Dame from the endzone of Notre Dame stadium last year, I find it hard to believe that:

a. Tashard Choice didn't win the Heisman. I was ready to start some witty Choice is the Choice for Heisman campaign myself for the guy.

b. Paul Johnson is now the head coach of the Jackets. Anyone who says they have any idea about how this season will play out for them is just being ridiculous. I think highly enough of Johnson that I think he'll get 6 wins out of this team (the games against Jacksonville State and Gardner-Webb don't hurt), but I really have no idea what to expect.

c. John Tenuta is a member of the Notre Dame coaching staff. That 33-3 win last year was about as dominant a defensive performance I've seen in a while. Tenuta had every player on the field flying to the ball and causing havoc in the backfield. If that is any indication of how this years ND unit will be playing, then we could be in for a good year.

NORTH CAROLINA STATE - 5.5 wins - UNDER

I wonder how much Tom O'Brien is enjoying that move from Boston to Raleigh. While BC just went through a great era in the history of the program, O'Brien is still trying to figure out how to win at NC State. A defense that was last in the ACC lost 7 starters from 2007 (Ok, not sure if that is a good or bad thing). The schedule gets tougher with nonconference games including the opener at South Carolina and a home game against USF. I don't see a bowl game in NC State's future. At least their hoops coach wears a slick red coat.

NORTH CAROLINA - 6.5 wins - OVER

While it is indisputable that Butch Davis is building something at UNC, the fact remains that the team only went 4-8 last year. After a season opening cupcake party against McNeese State, the direction of their season will be determined in the next 5 games: at Rutgers, VT, at Miami, UConn, ND. I see the Heels coming out of that stretch of games at 2-3, but luckily for them, the schedule eases up the rest of the way, including missing out on Clemson, FSU and Wake.

Notre Dame fans should be familiar with the name Greg Little - he's the guy who spurned Charlie at the 11th hour. The wide receiver turned running back will headline the offense that also features Mike Paulus as a true freshman backup QB. For all of the country's sake, here's to hoping he isn't as annoying and unlikable as his big brother.

MARYLAND - 7 wins - UNDER

Ralph Friedgen has quietly carved out a nice little niche in College Park (or maybe a nice big niche? He makes Chuck Weis look like a regular Weight Watcher). He'll usually play one marquee out of conference game a year ('02 ND, '03-'07 West Virginia, '08 Cal), play 3 D 1-AA caliber opponents if at all possible (Delaware, Middle Tennessee, Eastern Michigan) and then try to go .500 in the ACC. Usually that adds up to about a 6 or 7 win season and a berth in the Emerald Bowl or Music City Bowl or something. And apparently the administration is happy, the fans are happy, and the heat gets shifted to National Championship winning coach Gary Williams.

Since I really have no analysis of the Maryland football program, allow me to voice my displeasure with the trend of everybody playing the Villanova's and Delaware's and Western Carolina's of the college football world. I'm not thrilled that ND is playing a team like San Diego State, but at least it's a fairly reputable D1 school in the first week of the season. If ND was out there scheduling Charleston Southern as their home opener like Miami this year, there would be a revolt among the ND Nation. Do fans of other schools really get pumped to go to these games? As far as I am concerned, there are two men coaching football who fear no one:

This year, Pat Hill will be taking his team to Rutgers and UCLA while welcoming Wisconsin to Fresno. And the Trojans will be playing at Virginia with Ohio State and ND at home. No Northern Arizona's or Youngstown State's on these two men's schedules.

MIAMI - 7 wins - PUSH

Randy Shannon had a very unenviable task in front of him. When he walked in the door, things were so bad that he had to put in a firearm discipline policy, something that many coaches around the country probably don't have to worry too much about. Was Larry Coker just letting guys bring their guns to practice? Either way, Kyle Wright has graduated after spending what seems like the last 8 seasons tarnishing the legacies of Bernie, Vinnie and Gino. Unfortunately, there is no paisan waiting in the wings to take over - only two freshman. With games at Florida and at Texas A&M, I see only a slight step forward for the program this year.

On a separate not, here's to hoping that Swarbrick is on the phone right now to the Miami AD to see if we can't get a series set up between ND and The U.

BOSTON COLLEGE - 7 wins - UNDER
With Matt Ryan gone, the QB position is turned over to 5th year senior Chris Crane. An experienced guy who should be able to step in and maintain BC's momentum, right? Uh, not so much. The guy has thrown 32 career passes. Well at least they should be able to rely on the running game. Ok, maybe not. Andre Callender and LV Whitworth have exhausted their seeming endless supply of collegiate eligibility and a true freshman is expected to start. Throw in about the toughest 6 week stretch you can have in the ACC midseason of VT, at UNC, Clemson, ND, at FSU, at Wake, and I'm not feeling too optimistic about BC this year.

One thing we might find out about though is how good of a coach Jeff Jagodzinski is. He rode Matt Ryan's coattails last year, and let's just say that I am a little skeptical of what direction Coach Jags will be taking the program. And yes, wearing a leather jacket on the sideline is a factor. Although defensive coordinator Frank Spaziani does have one of the more underrated snout brooms roaming the sidelines. No confirmation yet to the rumor that Joe Tiller sent his entire coaching staff to Chestnut Hill this offseason to get the latest mustache grooming and growing techniques from Spaz.


WAKE FOREST - 8 wins - OVER
If you remember at the beginning of the preview, I tabbed one school as a frisky under the radar team. Well, look no further than your 2008 Demon Deacons. While my bias may already be coming through even though I haven't set foot on campus yet, I see Wake primed to make a serious run at a conference championship. They return virtually every key piece from last year, including last years NCAA comletion percentage leader (72.4%) Riley Skinner, last years ACC Rookie of the Year RB Josh Adams, and All-American cornerback Alphonso Smith, who picked off 8 passes last year and already holds the ACC record for most INT's returned for TD's.

The schedule is favorable for a big run in the ACC. Clemson comes to Winston-Salem on a Thursday night for what will in all likelihood be the biggest game in program history. Having never been a part of Thursday night football, I couldn't be more excited about that game under the lights. Of course I'll probably have a Quant exam or Econ paper due on Friday, but we'll worry about that later. Virginia Tech is nowhere to be found on the schedule, and out of conference is a respectable but highly manageable slate of at Baylor, Ole Miss, Navy and Vanderbilt.

I'll leave it at this. Take it to the bank that Jim Grobe is getting 9 wins out of this team. If the Deacs win that Thursday nighter against Clemson, than a conference title will be well within reach. And if you're feeling lucky, head on over to vegasinsider.com and lay down 10 bucks at 100-1 odds on Wake to be holding the National Championship trophy in January. I just did.


FLORIDA STATE - 8.5 wins - UNDER
The Seminole nation heads into another season waiting for Drew Weatherford to finally make the leap from 'guy who shows glimpses but makes too many dumb plays' to 'guy who was supposed to be All-American when he was recruited.' Let's just say I'm pretty confident we will not be seeing Weatherford's name on any All-American lists this year. It's pretty unbelievable that a school like FSU hasn't recruited another QB to come in and take over yet, but it looks like it's Weatheford's job for now.

With the huge academic scandal from last year in which so many suspensions were handed down Bobby Bowden was almost forced to suit up in the bowl game, coupled with the suspension of Preston Parker in the offseason for cruising around Miami with a loaded .45 and weed, it is difficult to see FSU reaching Vegas' lofty expectations. Sorry, 'Nole fans, this is a 7 win team. At best.


CLEMSON - 9 wins - PUSH
Sorry to cop out here, but Vegas is right on the money with this line. Would it surprise me if Clemson won 10 or 11 games. No. The talent is there for a monster season. But haven't we been down this road before with Tommy Bowden? It seems like every time there are big preseason expectations his team fails to live up to them. There is an annual Tommy Bowden on the hot seat story. And every year he seems to rally the team late and save his job and Clemson fans are forced to talk themselves back into him.

Clemson has a HUGE opener against one Nicholas Saban and Alabama in Atlanta. Wow. It doesn't get much better than that. If they can pull that one out, then they are cruising until that aforementioned showdown in Winston-Salem and are a legitimate national championship contender. With Cullen Harper, James Davis and CJ Spiller back to lead one of the most potent offenses in the country, and no Virginia Tech on the schedule, Tiger fans have every right to expect nothing short of a BCS appearance. But if history tells us anything, they might be disappointed come January. Only this time, if Bowden screws it up, chances are the Tiger faithful will be talking themselves into a different coach come next season.


VIRGINIA TECH - 9.5 wins - UNDER
I have to admit, I was shocked that Virginia Tech had the highest predicted win total by Vegas. I mean, they did win 11 games last year, but leading rusher Branden Ore was booted from school, and their top 4 receivers all graduated (well, exhausted their eligibility, I don't know if they actually got the sheepskin from this fine institution). BeamerBall will again incorporate two qb's, which after their first loss will inspire every TV analyst to trot out the old adage 'if you have two qb's you really have no qb's.' Although Sean Glennon and Tyrod Taylor both have had their moments, neither inspires much confidence among Hokie faithful. The defense returns only 4 starters after losing several key players to the NFL.

If there is one reason why Las Vegas pegs Virginia Tech as the ACC's biggest victor, it has to be the schedule. Nonconference games against East Carolina, Furman and Western Kentucky are a joke. Come on Beamer, you're better than that. A trip to Lincoln to visit a rebuilding Huskers team is their only nonconference test. Even with the easier schedule, I just don't think the talent is there for a stellar season in Blacksburg. Pencil in the Hokies for leading the NCAA in blocked punts....and 8 wins.

As an aside, I came across this painting of Frank Beamer being sold on some artist's website in Virginia. The guy by all accounts was serious in his artwork and devotion to the Hokies, as he also had portraits of Sean Glennon and Tyrod Taylor. Ummm, buddy, might be time to let go of the dreams of that painting career. Good God, Beamer is a legend in Blacksburg and this is what that gets him.