To Be or Not to Be - That is the Independence Question

This day was bound to come at some point.  The "prime domino" (akin to the prime mover from Philo 101) has fallen with the surprise announcement that Pittsburgh and Syracuse are bolting to the ACC in 2014.  ND Nation can save the William Wallace / Patrick Henry independence till we die speeches.  It's been a nice ride (124 years, 1887-present) of galloping around the football world like an unsaddled stallion.

Let's be honest, as much as we wish, hope and convince ourselves that Brian Kelly will deliver the Irish back to the promised land of a national title game, the drought is near the end of its 2nd decade in South Bend.  Some of you will count 3 BCS trips in the 2000s as proof that the program can still get close going it alone.  Those seasons were fools gold in my opinion as we were embarrassed in two games and outclassed in the third.  There's still plenty of incentive to keep our comfortable arrangement with the Big East (what's left of it), count our NBC ducats and enjoy our bowl game revenues to ourselves like an only child after Halloween.  But watching the swiftly changing landscape of conference re-alignment and a possible murky future for the BCS, it would be hubris of Notre Dame not to make the difficult, gut-wrenching, sky-is-falling decision to join a conference as a full-fledged member.  That same decision can also be described as prudent, lucrative, necessary and in the school's best interest.

1988 might possibly be the heyday of independent football considering 4 of the top 5 teams were sans conference.  Take a look.  ND (#1), Miami (#2), FSU (#3), West Virginia (#5) and Syracuse (#13) were all ranked.  Joe Paterno had his first losing season two years after winning the national title.  Frank Beamer was in his 2nd year coaching independent Va. Tech.  Brett Favre led Southern Miss to a 10-2 record.  South Carolina, Pitt, Rutgers, Boston College and Cincinnati were also among 24 total independent schools playing football.  Just 3 years later (1991), the number of independents had dwindled to 16, and by the end of the decade (1999), Notre Dame was the only major program still trumpeting its freedom.  None of the other 6 programs in conference purgatory were good enough to be ranked by season's end (Bob Davie's cue to bow).

The yacht ND was riding in with plenty of company in 1988 has become a canoe taking on water with only one oar.  The only relevant football program embracing independence, besides Navy and Army (god bless 'em), is the "born-again" BYU program that divorced the Mountain West for a bachelor existence once again.  Football independence has gone the way of the dinosaur and ND risks being frozen in an ice age of its own doing.

Syracuse and Pittsburgh leaving for the ACC signals a gamebreaker in conference re-alignment.  With the Big 12 in a tenuous state and the ACC shopping for a 15th and 16th member, ND's traditional poker face staring down conference overtures should be on the verge of cracking.  I realize and appreciate that AD Jack Swarbrick's decision is extremely complex with several layers of cause-effect ripples to consider.  But let's play some guess work at the 4 main options ND faces:

1) Join ACC - Create the 1st super-conference of 16 teams with Rutgers or UConn.  Enter recruiting battles with Miami, Florida State, Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech.  Play in the best basketball conference with the defections of Pitt and Cuse joining the hot bed of the North Carolina schools.  Most important (if/when Fr. Jenkins announces any such move), the academic fraternity of peer institutions Duke, Boston College, Georgia Tech, Miami, UNC, Virginia and Wake Forest all rank in US News and World Report's top 50 schools.  The Big Ten only has 5 in the top 50 and 1 in the top 25 compared to 3 ACC schools in the top 25.  The biggest drawback is the travel for all of the other sports with Pittsburgh being the closest in geography.

2) Join Big 10 - Give in at long last to the natural geographical fit with plenty of built-in rivalries already in existence.  Nothing sexy about this choice.  There would likely be another school that would have to join to keep division balance (maybe Kansas, West Virginia or Iowa State).  But it certainly doesn't send a huge message to the rest of the country.  It's more like having three prom hopefuls reject you and meekly asking the Quiz Bowl captain if she's going with anyone.  Makes plenty of sense for all other sports, but football should be making these decisions.

3) Do Nothing A - Stay the course as an independent with a new Big East for everything else.  This may be a hope and a prayer that the Big East doesn't fold into a conference black hole as the super-conference power play picks up steam over the next few years.  It wouldn't be the same with Pitt and Syracuse gone, but it's what we know and we won't be bullied into making any rash decisions.

4) Do Nothing B - Stay the course as an independent and be a fly on the wall as the four super-conferences develop, leaving a nomadic tribe of new conference-less football mates.  This list could include TCU, Cincy, and USF with Boise State dominating the mid-majors for the next 77 years.  With no more Big East, ND may be able to put together a Catholic League or a basketball specialty league with the likes of Marquette, DePaul, Georgetown, Villanova, Providence, Seton Hall, St. John's, and maybe lure Xavier, Temple, Dayton, Temple and Creighton as well.  This would be a respectable basketball conference and may even work for all other sports, though not all these schools carry all the sports as ND.  This is purely a reactive plan instead of taking a proactive approach that is in their hands right now.

For fun, I teased out what such a 4 League super conference would look like.  My guesses have Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech joining the "West Coast" league; Kansas, West Virginia, Iowa State and Kansas State joining the "Midwest"; Texas A&M, Baylor, Louisville and Missouri joining the "Southeast"; and UConn and Rutgers (but pumped as all get out if Swarbrick beats one of those schools to the punch) in the "East Coast."  That would leave TCU, CIncy, South Florida and ND/UConn/Rutgers as the odd teams out from the current BCS picture.

It's a fascinating universe the NCAA has created with schools money-grabbing to ensure a pie slice of bigger and bigger tv revenues.  Staying tuned to see how it all shakes down.

Tebow coming back to Florida

Superman is coming back to college next year. Not a huge surprise. His draft stock isn't really all that high. Might as well work on his arm, come back next year, and hope that he can somehow play himself into a 2nd round pick or something like that. There's no reason the Gators won't be preseason #1 next year.

Has anyone looked at their defense by the way??

DE - Jermaine Cunningham - Junior
DT - Terron Sanders - Sophomore
DT - Lawrence Marsh - Sophomore
DE - Carlos Dunlap - Sophomore
LB - Dustin Doe - Sophomore
LB - Brandon Spikes - Junior
LB - AJ Jones - Junior
CB - Janoris Jenkins - Freshman
FS - Major Wright - Sophomore
SS - Ahmad Black - Sophomore
CB - Joe Haden - Sophomore

My god, there isn't one senior on their entire defense. I know Brandon Spikes might leave, but that defense is loaded. And their schedule is surprisingly soft for an SEC team (although adding in the SEC title game would obviously add another tough game). No Bama or Ole Miss next year unless they meet in the SEC title game, and their nonconference is a joke other than Florida State. Who are they losing to on this schedule??

9/5 Charleston Southern
9/12 Troy
9/19 Tennessee
9/26 at Kentucky
10/10 at LSU
10/17 Arkansas (Homecoming)
10/24 at Mississippi State
10/31 vs. Georgia (Jacksonville FL)
11/7 Vanderbilt
11/14 at South Carolina
11/21 Florida International
11/28 Florida State (Senior Day)
12/5 SEC Championship Game (Atlanta GA)

Can we just set up the USC-Florida game for next January in Pasadena in the National Title game?? I'm all for it. Just set it up now, and I'll start gearing up for that game. It would be great to see how they match up.

Utah

What does everyone think about this Utah story?? Are they really getting screwed?? I don't personally think that they have much of a beef, but I can see why they are upset. They did all that they could do. They scheduled Michigan on the road (not exactly an easy game on paper), they played Oregon State, they ran the table in the Mountain West, and they beat Alabama in the Sugar Bowl. That's a heckuva resume.

In the system that we have now, I don't think they really really had much of a stake though. If Utah had played an 8 game SEC schedule, I don't think they would have gone undefeated. They had a great game plan for Alabama and were more fired up for the game than Bama, but life is tough week in and week out in the SEC. I don't think Utah could have held up. They very nearly lost to the likes of Air Force and New Mexico State during the regular season. Don't get me wrong, they had a great year and definitely deserved to finish in the top 5, but I think they should just be happy with their top 5 finish and hope that their run this year put them in position to be considered for a title game appearance in the future.

While I don't have a problem with Utah and Kyle Whittingham trying to fight for their program, I'm already bored with the media jumping on the Utah bandwagon. The media seems to be using this Utah team as the best example of why we need a playoff. As usual, the media is missing the real issue. I don't want a playoff in college football because of mid-majors not getting a chance. I want a playoff because of the MAJORS not getting a chance. I'm more concerned about the fact that USC won a conference that went 5-0 in bowl games and didn't get to play for the title even though they had the same record as Florida and OU. The mid-majors are a side issue for me. Take care of the heavyweights first with a four team playoff, and then we'll figure out a way to get the mid-majors involved down the road.

I do think the lasting legacy of the Sugar Bowl might be the emergence of Utah as a possible power program. I don't necessarily think that Alabama brought their best performance to the table in the Sugar Bowl, but I certainly think that Utah proved that they are a potential powerhouse team coming out of the Mountain region. One of the biggest surprises of the game was that Utah matched up pretty well physically against Alabama. Maybe not quite at Alabama's level, but it wasn't the mismatch physically that I sort of expected to see. They had good offensive linemen, a big and physical d-line, and some speed at the skill spots. Talent-wise, they looked good.

I think that Utah is going to be one of those schools that emerges over the next fifteen years or so as a real program on the rise. I think they have the resources in that state with a pretty good economy, demographics are in their favor now that more and more people are moving to the Mountain area (Colorado, Utah, Northern Arizona, Idaho, Nevada type areas). I think there are more and more good football players that are emerging from that region. Quite honestly, Utah is now the premier program for that region. They are going to get good players out of Utah, Idaho, Montana, Colorado, Wyoming, and Nevada and those types of areas. For all we know, there might be more quality players of that region someday than there are currently in states like Michigan and Ohio and Wisconsin. Plus, Utah seems to get quite a few JUCOs out there, and they also have the Mormon connection for some out of state kids. That's three pretty good talent streams for the Utes.

The other thing that Utah seems to have tapped into is the Samoan football population. Why aren't more schools going after these Samoan guys?? I'm ready for ND to open up a satellite campus in Samoa. They have become the new equalizers in college football. I don't know if it is a genetic thing or what, but these Samoan guys are all beasts with an unusual combination of strength and quickness. It seems like every Samoan player on the d-line with the long hair is good, but only a few schools have a bunch of these guys on their roster. Utah had like three Samoans on their d-line. They don't need to get inner city kids if they are getting the Samoan players. It's definitely a trend in college football and football in general.

Is it time for the Mountain West to get an automatic bid?? Between TCU, Utah, and BYU, there are some good programs that are suddenly emerging out of that league. I really think these schools need to be taken into consideration at some point, especially as the population in this country continues to move West. Heck, the top of the Mountain West is stronger than the top of the Big East right now.