To Be or Not to Be - That is the Independence Question

This day was bound to come at some point.  The "prime domino" (akin to the prime mover from Philo 101) has fallen with the surprise announcement that Pittsburgh and Syracuse are bolting to the ACC in 2014.  ND Nation can save the William Wallace / Patrick Henry independence till we die speeches.  It's been a nice ride (124 years, 1887-present) of galloping around the football world like an unsaddled stallion.

Let's be honest, as much as we wish, hope and convince ourselves that Brian Kelly will deliver the Irish back to the promised land of a national title game, the drought is near the end of its 2nd decade in South Bend.  Some of you will count 3 BCS trips in the 2000s as proof that the program can still get close going it alone.  Those seasons were fools gold in my opinion as we were embarrassed in two games and outclassed in the third.  There's still plenty of incentive to keep our comfortable arrangement with the Big East (what's left of it), count our NBC ducats and enjoy our bowl game revenues to ourselves like an only child after Halloween.  But watching the swiftly changing landscape of conference re-alignment and a possible murky future for the BCS, it would be hubris of Notre Dame not to make the difficult, gut-wrenching, sky-is-falling decision to join a conference as a full-fledged member.  That same decision can also be described as prudent, lucrative, necessary and in the school's best interest.

1988 might possibly be the heyday of independent football considering 4 of the top 5 teams were sans conference.  Take a look.  ND (#1), Miami (#2), FSU (#3), West Virginia (#5) and Syracuse (#13) were all ranked.  Joe Paterno had his first losing season two years after winning the national title.  Frank Beamer was in his 2nd year coaching independent Va. Tech.  Brett Favre led Southern Miss to a 10-2 record.  South Carolina, Pitt, Rutgers, Boston College and Cincinnati were also among 24 total independent schools playing football.  Just 3 years later (1991), the number of independents had dwindled to 16, and by the end of the decade (1999), Notre Dame was the only major program still trumpeting its freedom.  None of the other 6 programs in conference purgatory were good enough to be ranked by season's end (Bob Davie's cue to bow).

The yacht ND was riding in with plenty of company in 1988 has become a canoe taking on water with only one oar.  The only relevant football program embracing independence, besides Navy and Army (god bless 'em), is the "born-again" BYU program that divorced the Mountain West for a bachelor existence once again.  Football independence has gone the way of the dinosaur and ND risks being frozen in an ice age of its own doing.

Syracuse and Pittsburgh leaving for the ACC signals a gamebreaker in conference re-alignment.  With the Big 12 in a tenuous state and the ACC shopping for a 15th and 16th member, ND's traditional poker face staring down conference overtures should be on the verge of cracking.  I realize and appreciate that AD Jack Swarbrick's decision is extremely complex with several layers of cause-effect ripples to consider.  But let's play some guess work at the 4 main options ND faces:

1) Join ACC - Create the 1st super-conference of 16 teams with Rutgers or UConn.  Enter recruiting battles with Miami, Florida State, Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech.  Play in the best basketball conference with the defections of Pitt and Cuse joining the hot bed of the North Carolina schools.  Most important (if/when Fr. Jenkins announces any such move), the academic fraternity of peer institutions Duke, Boston College, Georgia Tech, Miami, UNC, Virginia and Wake Forest all rank in US News and World Report's top 50 schools.  The Big Ten only has 5 in the top 50 and 1 in the top 25 compared to 3 ACC schools in the top 25.  The biggest drawback is the travel for all of the other sports with Pittsburgh being the closest in geography.

2) Join Big 10 - Give in at long last to the natural geographical fit with plenty of built-in rivalries already in existence.  Nothing sexy about this choice.  There would likely be another school that would have to join to keep division balance (maybe Kansas, West Virginia or Iowa State).  But it certainly doesn't send a huge message to the rest of the country.  It's more like having three prom hopefuls reject you and meekly asking the Quiz Bowl captain if she's going with anyone.  Makes plenty of sense for all other sports, but football should be making these decisions.

3) Do Nothing A - Stay the course as an independent with a new Big East for everything else.  This may be a hope and a prayer that the Big East doesn't fold into a conference black hole as the super-conference power play picks up steam over the next few years.  It wouldn't be the same with Pitt and Syracuse gone, but it's what we know and we won't be bullied into making any rash decisions.

4) Do Nothing B - Stay the course as an independent and be a fly on the wall as the four super-conferences develop, leaving a nomadic tribe of new conference-less football mates.  This list could include TCU, Cincy, and USF with Boise State dominating the mid-majors for the next 77 years.  With no more Big East, ND may be able to put together a Catholic League or a basketball specialty league with the likes of Marquette, DePaul, Georgetown, Villanova, Providence, Seton Hall, St. John's, and maybe lure Xavier, Temple, Dayton, Temple and Creighton as well.  This would be a respectable basketball conference and may even work for all other sports, though not all these schools carry all the sports as ND.  This is purely a reactive plan instead of taking a proactive approach that is in their hands right now.

For fun, I teased out what such a 4 League super conference would look like.  My guesses have Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech joining the "West Coast" league; Kansas, West Virginia, Iowa State and Kansas State joining the "Midwest"; Texas A&M, Baylor, Louisville and Missouri joining the "Southeast"; and UConn and Rutgers (but pumped as all get out if Swarbrick beats one of those schools to the punch) in the "East Coast."  That would leave TCU, CIncy, South Florida and ND/UConn/Rutgers as the odd teams out from the current BCS picture.

It's a fascinating universe the NCAA has created with schools money-grabbing to ensure a pie slice of bigger and bigger tv revenues.  Staying tuned to see how it all shakes down.

Week 3 Pick: ND vs. Michigan State

Dan: Michigan State

Every time I think we have a gut wrenching loss, I always think it will be difficult to top that one. I know there is always a bit of a recenct bias, but last week’s loss feels like the worst loss since the 2005 USC game. We dominated Michigan for 3 quarters after a fluky first week game, and things looked like maybe this team could reel off a string of victories. And then the wheels came off. Granted, even before the 4^th quarter, the turnover issues continued. But the offense moved the ball and the defense dominated the Wolverines. 

What will happen this week? Can ND stop turning the ball over? Can Ben Turk convert practice punting to game punting? Can Gary Gray remember to turn around and recover his form from last year? Michigan State is the toughest team we have played this year, and I am not convinced that there are enough “Yes” answers to those questions. 

Michigan State 27 Notre Dame 23

Jeremy: Michigan State

I do still think that ND can be a great team this year, but I have no confidence that they can actually WIN a game.  And I am now legitimately terrified that any decent QB, with an adequate stable of WRs, can rip this secondary apart.  Until they show me a complete performance, I'll have an awful tough time picking the Irish.

Jimmy: Notre Dame

Common sense screams that the Spartans will play spoiler in South Bend again.  They’re the best of ND’s first 3 opponents.  They’re led by a savvy senior QB with a nice complement of offensive threats.  They gave up 1(!) first down last week.  Not a typo.  One.  I don’t care if you’re playing Little Sisters of Mary.  That’s impressive.  But I'm standing by the Irish.  They exorcise the demons of the 1st two weeks by finally playing a complete game for 60 minutes, not 3 quarters or 55:30.  MSU runs a more traditional dropback passing / power rushing offense that the defense will have to slow down.  I like Manti and Dan "The Mane Event" Fox's chances.  Very curious to see how much an impact Tuitt and Lync make on the line.  On the other side of the ball, Cierre Wood will churn out another 20+ effective and carries and Mr. Floyd be his normal unguardable self.  Granted, it would also help if Teddy Ruxpin and HR Pufnstuf were calling defensive plays and the visitors locker room was well-stocked with applesauce.  

BK knows he has the talent.  He believes they can still salvage this season.  The players - every single one of them from Te'o down to the walk-ons - must believe in themselves to turn the toxic tide growing around them.  Shut everything out and play some football.  It begins Saturday.  

ND 27  MSU 17

Mike: Michigan State 

Yawn.  Groundhog Day:  the offense will move the ball pretty well at times and Mike Floyd will have a monster game, but the host Irish will again bury themselves in an avalanche of mistakes.  Yet another win for Michigan State in Spartan Stadium South.

Michigan State 34 Notre Dame 31

Phil: Notre Dame

Stupified, shocked, appalled, frustated, etc etc etc. 

I have never heard of a team going 80 yards in 3 plays with 20 seconds left to get a winning TD. WTF?!? Were we in a prevent? Why single coverage then? And why no pressure? One stat I read somewhere was that no Michigan drive lasted longer than 5 plays! I cannot imagine how this sort of thing occurs. 

But let me try - the Irish don't seem to know how to win(obviously). We come into each season with voices and propaganda discussing BCS bowls and big expectations. I think the players and even the coaches are affected by this talk and they have an inadvertent leap before you crawl mentality. BK should hide all the traditional paraphanalia and all the banners and focus on each player beating their man on each play. 

I remember at a halftime interview last year of a game we were losing, where BK said "you can't win championships, if you can't run the football..." 

Championships?!? Dude, you are losing to Tulsa at the half. One step at a time, get back to fundamentals and stop buying into the ND mystique. 

A wise man once taught me a valuable lesson - "greatness is nothing more than the act of achieving greatness." 

We have players, we have the coaches, now we need to figure out "what it takes" to win. This has nothing to do with schemes or play calling. This is about beating your man one play at a time.  Who knows if we have learned that yet, but at the end of the day, I am an Irish fan. 

Irish 28 MSU 21

WeIs Roundtable Week 3 Picks: Intra-BCS Showdown Edition

Tradition rich programs square off this week in a fun slate of games.  (Editors note: Mike's picks are stored against his will on an evil computer that refuses internet service.  Stay tuned for an update with Mike's witty thoughts added to the mix.  The weekend wouldn't be the same without Mike and his wit.  What wit and charm!  If I didn't know better, I'd think Mike were British.)

Ohio State (-1) at Miami

Dan: Miami (+1)

I will not lay a dime on this game. The suspensions and erratic natures of both these teams just make it too difficult to call. I could see it being close or either team winning by two touchdowns. In the end, I’ll go with the home team with an actual head coach and a more talented QB. However, I caution you to stay away.

Miami 17 OSU 14

Jeremy: Ohio St (-1)

Sounds like Fickell might be taking some heat for last week's performance against the mighty Rockets of Toledo.  Was surprised to see the Bucks give up as many points and yards as they did on Saturday.  OSU looked pretty dominant on defense against the Zips in Week One.  I think they bounce back this weekend down in Miami.  The Canes are a walking nightmare right now.

OSU 17  Miami 13

Jimmy: Ohio State (-1)

Who knows who is eligible for the Sanction Party Bowl.  One thing is for certain - Jacory “Turnovers are a Way of Life” Harris will be involved on the field.  Last we saw him, Harris single-handedly vaulted ND to a lofty preseason ranking replete with a Copperfield-esque illusion trick that the Irish D was turning into a reliable force.  With Jacory behind center, the Buckeyes look like the smart pick, even if all is not well in C-Bus.  Struggling to avoid “Holy Toledo!” headlines across the country, Fickell’s fearless crew were likely guilty of looking ahead to their South Beach trip.  I trust the Buckeyes will be dialed in and looking to release some of their NCAA-fueled aggression.  I fear the Hurricanes are in too much disarray to compete.

Ohio State 27  Miami 13

Mike: Miami (+1)

The bloom is certainly off the rose in this matchup, given the lingering cloud of scandal that hangs over both programs.  In addition, both teams are lacking depth for various reasons, including the obvious player suspensions.  Having said that, the Canes have been hit less hard on the suspension front and they add Jacory Harris back to the starting lineup.  Harris is far from perfect, but he is an improvement over Stephen Morris and he is a tested veteran who is far superior to Joe Bauserman and Braxton Miller at this point of their careers.  Al Golden will score his first career win with the Canes and Luke Fickell will take his first career loss as head coach of the Buckeyes. 

Miami 22 Ohio State 17

Phil: Miami (+1)

Speaking of road favorites...we introduce Probation Bowl 2011, winner to face off against the Boise-USC winner! Completely going against my natural tendencies, the return of Jacory  Harris is not a good thing for the Canes, however, Al Golden will have them ready to go at home.

Miami 17 OSU 14 

LSU(-4) at Mississippi State 

Dan: Mississippi State (+4)

I am liking the home dogs this year in the SEC. Mississippi State should bounce back against LSU after a disappointed loss at the buzzer to Auburn. Throw in the Thursday night home game philosophy, and I can’t stay away from the Bulldogs even though it is difficult to any reason on paper why they should be within a touchdown of LSU. 

LSU 20 Mississippi State 17

Jeremy: LSU (-4)

Will be interesting to see how Miss. St. responds to last week's heartbreaker on the Plains.  Having the Bayou Bengals come to town isn't exactly the best way to exorcise some demons from a tough loss.  Needless to say, I don't think the Bulldogs have it in them.

LSU 27  MSU 20

Jimmy: LSU (-4)  Lock of the Week

For a brief moment, I started thinking this season has already started its descent into wacky unpredictability - why can’t the Bulldogs come barking back after last week and treat Starkville to a huge win.  Then I remembered how badly LSU manhandled Oregon’s excellent offense and came to my senses.  This could be entertaining for a half, maybe even 3 quarters, but the Bayou Bengals will see the Bulldogs bark and raise them a mighty roar.  Les Miles wins on the River.  (Your guess is as good as mine how that pick devolved into a poker metaphor.  I just went with it, but it’s an apt description for the Hat’s coaching success.)

LSU 33  Mississippi St. 27

Mike: Mississippi State (+3.5)

LSU certainly looked impressive on defense against Oregon, so they should be able to slow the spread running attack of Mississippi State as well.  Still, LSU has not proven that they have any signs of life on offense with Jarrett Lee under center.  These two teams are closely matched, which leads me to side with Mississippi State for several reasons:  they’re getting points, the game is in Starkville and I like the coaching matchup with Dan Mullen and the Mad Hatter.  Cowbell up!

LSU 20 Mississippi State 17

Phil: LSU (-4)  Lock of the Week

Short week for the billions after a brutally physical game vs the Champs. Relf provided me a glimpse of the frustration it must have been defending Cam last year, as he repeatedly found a way to convert on 3rd down. I fully expect LSU defense to be more stout than Auburn's, and those third down conversions to be more scarce. An interesting tidbit- Dan Mullen is 2-9 vs the SEC West, with both wins coming against Ole Miss. Poor. I think this game will be close, and would like LSU better at -3, but I hate Mullen and the dogs, as they miserably try and stay relevant. 

LSU 28 Mrs St 20 

Auburn (+3.5) at Clemson

Dan: Auburn (+3.5)

I understand that Auburn is due for a twist of bad luck after two lucky and close wins. But Clemson has played Troy and Wofford. I find it hard to lay 3.5 points against the defending national champions when the team hasn’t even played anyone this year. I was all set to take Clemson with this game, but not laying 3.5 forget about it. 

Auburn 34 Clemson 31

Jeremy: Auburn (+3.5)  Lock of the Week

Can't say that I really get this line.  I suppose Vegas probably thinks that there's no way Auburn can pull out another miracle on the road, but I don't think Clemson is any good at all.  Got a sneaking suspicion that this could be a big win for the War Eagle.

Auburn 34  Clemson 17

Jimmy: Auburn (+3.5)

Learning my lesson the hard way about the power of Gene Chizik and Gus Malzahn.  They get results.  Clemson is a fine team with a nice tradition playing in the lesser Death Valley (should we start calling it Faint Pulse Valley?)  When it comes down to it, Clemson’s football program has delusions of SEC quality, when in reality they’re an above-average ACC school.  They always seem to disappoint in the end, despite plenty of NFL talent over the years.  Auburn knows full well they have to play above themselves to win.  They did it last week.  They’ll do it again this week in a close one.  War Eagle.

Auburn 37  Clemson 34  

Mike: Auburn (+3.5)

Very difficult game to call.  I am convinced that the cardiac (Auburn) Tigers are long overdue for a loss, but Clemson has looked weak in the first two weeks, having struggled to defeat Troy and Wofford.  Both offenses should be able to move the ball effectively, so this game figures to be somewhat high scoring.  In a close game, who do you trust:  the team coached by Gene Chizik or the team coached by Dabo Swinney?  I’ll cast my lot with the former.

Auburn 31 Clemson 30

Phil: Auburn (+3.5) 

What can I say? Insert your cliche here. "Bend but don't break." "We believe in each other." "We don't know how to lose." The champs have lived dangerously each of the last 2 weeks, but they have "found a way," and they actually have improved each game. The D line had a better push, and as predicted, some subtle O line changes had us running the ball much better. This week is our first road test vs a Clemson team that sleep walked through Wofford. I look for our special teams to make a big play this week. Tre Mason!!  I expect a very physical, fast matchup, but until they prove me different, I'm going with my boys. 

Auburn 37 Clemson 34

Oklahoma (-3.5) at Florida State

Dan: Oklahoma (-3.5)  Lock of the Week

This is the type of game OU wins. Other than Texas, I feel like OU’s success in the regular season against Top 10 teams has been very good under Stoops. I know FSU will be motivated after last year’s blow out, but I think Landry Jones can keep his cool in Doak Campbell and leave with a victory (and cover).

OU 28 FSU 21

Jeremy: Oklahoma (-3.5)

Just not quite ready to buy into the FSU hype quite yet.  EJ Manuel is still pretty green, and I'm going with the better QB, even in the Doak.

OU 24  FSU 20

Jimmy: Florida State (+3.5)

Heavyweight matchup!  Jimbo Fisher’s revitalization of the Seminoles program happened with Tamarick Vanover speed.  Becoming largely irrelevant in the twilight of Bowden’s reign (3 of his last four years were 6-loss seasons - not since Bowden’s first season in 1976 had FSU lost 6), the sleeping giant is on Adderall these days with the top recruits flocking to Tallahassee (by that same token, the state’s other top “talent” flocking to become the next Jenn Sterger on campus).  Doak Campbell has a great gameday atmosphere, as discussed here previously.  The Sooner faithful making the trip will enjoy themselves.  

As for game prediction, I think FSU’s defense will relish the limelight and slow the Sooners attack enough to make things very competitive.  Bob Stoops hasn’t had the best big-game record the last 7 or so years, especially on the road.  The Tomahawk Chop will be loud, repetitively obnoxious and the right inspiration for a FSU statement win.  After taking most of the 2000s off, the Noles look primed to return to their 90’s dominating self.  

FSU 29  OU 27

Mike: Oklahoma (-3.5)

FSU has not played a meaningful game yet, so the jury remains out on the Seminoles, who were a trendy sleeper pick to contend for the national championship this year.  Likewise, the nation’s current #1 team, Oklahoma, enjoyed an opening day cupcake followed by a rare break in week 2.  Without any further evidence to the contrary, I am hard pressed to conclude that the Seminoles, who lost their starting QB to the NFL draft, have closed the talent gap with a Sooner program that embarrassed them last season.  The change of venue will help FSU, but not enough.

Oklahoma 41 Florida State 27

Phil: FSU (+3.5)

What an early season matchup! I haven't seen either team play yet, but the talking heads seem to think this is a national quarterfinal game. FSU is returning to prominence, OU has been near the top for sometime. FSU is at home, OU has had struggles in big games. Only cause I'm taking LSU, and want to avoid picking too many road favorites. That, and I love a black QB. 

FSU 30 OU 27

Bonus Picks

Dan: UT (+9.5) @ Florida

I may be shooting myself by putting myself in the Volunteer camp in a visit to Ben Hill Griffin, but nearly 10 points feels a little large. Florida may have tons of talent still, but it isn’t the same Florida team as recent years. Forgive me for not being impressed by wins over UAB and FAU. Tyler Bray, and his talented wide receivers Justin Hunter and Da’Rick Rogers, have been putting up some pretty impressive passing numbers. I think they put enough on the board to get the cover and obtain a single digit loss in Gainesville.

Florida 27 UT 21

Jeremy: West Virginia (-1.5) at Maryland

Another questionable line, in my opinion.  Is this newfound confidence in the Terps based solely on their performance against a POS Miami squad that's on the verge of completely falling apart?  Mountaineers win big here.

WVU 35  Maryland 20

Jimmy: Wisconsin (-17) vs. Northern Illinois (at Soldier Field)

The Badgers have steamrolled two opponents collectively 86-17.  The Huskies have proven they can put up 40+ against Army and Kansas.  Big whoop.  Russell Wilson looks like a magical fit in Madison.  Has Wisconsin ever had such an athletically talented QB?  It seems like the last 20 years have been chock full of Brooks Bollinger, Scott Tolzien, Jim Sorgi, John Stocco, etc. types.  As if their impressive rushing attack needed another dimension.  It looks like the Leaders Division goes through Grateful Red this year.  

Wisconsin 48  NIU 14

Mike: Pittsburgh at Iowa (-3.5)

The Hawkeyes stubbed their toe against their in-state rivals (who, in turn, accidentally destroyed the redesigned Cy-Hawk Trophy whilst celebrating), but they nonetheless seem to be a stronger program than a struggling Pittsburgh team whose starting QB, Tino Sunseri, seems to have regressed in his second year.  Look for Iowa to bounce back at home and notch a comfortable non-conference win against Todd Graham’s Panthers.

Iowa 28  Pittsburgh 10

Phil: Tennessee (+9.5) @ Florida

Early on, I predicted Florida would come out of the East, only because Garcia is a drunk and I believe Weis will have those swamp athletes putting up some points. While I still feel this way, Tennessee and Tyler Bray have looked surprisingly good, especially given the fact that Dooley has kicked off players that could make up an all-conference team. Ten points is alot, given the rivalry game, but UF should still win.  What happened to the days of the 10-6 SEC game??

Florida 28 Tenn 24

Last Week's Picks: 

Dan: 3-2-1 (+ Lock of Week)

Jeremy: 4-1-1 (+)

Jimmy: 3-2-1 (+)

Mike: 4-1-1 (push)

Phil: 1-4-1 (push)

Season's Standings:

Dan: 7-4-1 (2-0)

Jeremy: 6-5-1 (1-1)

Jimmy: 5-5-2 (1-1)

Matt: 2-4 (0-1)

Mike: 5-6-1 (0-1-1)

Phil: 3-8-1 (0-1-1)

Week 2 Pick: ND - Michigan...Throwback Style

First night game in the Big House.  Throw back unis.  Prime time atmosphere.  Storied bitter rivalry (I owe WeIs a book review - Natural Enemies is fannntastic).  Time to earn back the faith of ND Nation.  

Dan: Notre Dame

I don’t know why I do this to myself. After last Saturday, I was convinced I would be going with Michigan for this game. I am not convinced we have speed on the edges to contain Denard Robinson. I am not convinced we will avoid the stupid mistakes and turnovers that cost us the game against USF. I am nervous about the team and crowd energy for the first Michigan night game. 

However, I know that as a starter, Tommy Rees is 4 -1, and some questionable coaching decisions really lead to the loss against Tulsa. In the 2^nd half, ND looked like a different team, and if NBC isn’t a jackass network and instead, speeds the game up and we avoid that 2^nd evacuation, I think we may have still won that game. 

Somehow, someway, we get it done on Saturday night in Ann Arbor.

Notre Dame 24 Michigan 23

Jeremy: Notre Dame

Enough has been said about last week's debacle.  Hopefully, in a few weeks, we'll look back on that game and laugh it off as a huge fluke.  But the season all rides on this weekend in Ann Arbor.  Pretty clear that Kelly made the right choice in going to Rees - Crist may look like a rockstar on the practice fields, but he simply doesn't have the taste for the bright lights.  I expect to see the Irish move the ball pretty easily on the Wolverines this week.  The addition of Greg Mattison to the M coaching staff will no doubt improve the defensive unit (how could it get any worse?), but there just aren't enough playmakers on that side of the ball to slow down a good offense like Notre Dame's.  Look for big days from Wood, Floyd and Eifert, and a consistent solid effort from the offensive line.  If ND can hold on to the damn ball, they can score a bunch of points in this game.

No surprise to anyone but slowing Denard Robinson will be the key on defense.  Michigan's offensive line is one of their better units on the team, and there will be room for Robinson and the backs to run.  Hopefully Louis Nix will continue to bottle up the interior of the line, forcing everything to the sidelines, and the waiting arms of Fleming, Shembo and others.  

Getting off to a good start will be key for the Irish, as they simply can't continue to play from behind, particularly on the road.  But I think the defense performs admirably again, and the Rees-led offense has a great deal of success as the Irish pull out the big W on the road.

ND 34  Michigan 28

Jimmy: Notre Dame

A wise man once said "Gunga galunga... gunga, gunga-lagunga."  Yep, that about sums up the hangover feeling from USF.  The cumulative effect of brainfart Irish plays reached Tecmo Bowl-computer-vows-to-beat-you proportions.  The law of averages says there's no way another snowball of dagger turnovers and back-breaking penalties happens again in Ann Arbor.    

Looking at the matchup, you can argue ND has an advantage at every position except QB.  Granted, Shoelace is a difference making advantage, as evidenced by last year.  I still get cold sweats thinking about his one-man deconstruction act.  Te'o, Fleming and Fox (aka The Mane Event) know what #16 is capable of.  I trust they're up to the challenge.  While BJ Daniels wasn't under siege quite as much as I expected, the unit did a great job of stifling USF's offense to the tune of 254 total yards.  Another yeoman's effort like that can get the job done.  


The other QB in the contest enters with a fresh whiff of controversy.  Brian Kelly absolutely made the right decision to bench Crist and name Rees the starter.  Tommy "A.E.D." Rees zapped the Irish back to life coming out in the 2nd half.  He knows where his bread is buttered (the unstoppable Michael Floyd) and shows a willingness on every snap to get #3 involved.  This isn't long division with decimals.  It's college football, and mismatches are meant to be exploited.  Rees will throw to Floyd until they triple team him - and even then he'll still look his direction.  Combined with a resurgent rushing attack behind the impressive Cierre Wood and the Irish should put some points on the board...both halves.  


As most games in this illustrious series are, this one should be memorable.  With their backs already against the wall, BK will get maximum concentration and effort from his guys. I can't even fathom what 0-2 would feel like.  It's not an option.  Go Irish!  Beat Wolverines!  Muck Fichigan

Notre Dame 27  Michigan 25

Mike: Michigan

I know that I am in the extreme minority here, but I am disappointed that Tommy Rees is starting this week.  As an initial matter, I think that Kelly pulled the plug far too quickly on Crist, especially given all of the mistakes that his teammates made in the first half.  If Crist was selected as the starter, then he should have been given more than two quarters of play regardless of how close the QB competition may have been in the offseason.  While Rees performed well last week, he also benefited from a soft USF defensive approach that allowed him to dink and dunk his way down the field.  In addition, Rees also exhibited his propensity to throw interceptions, which was on full display last year.

Anyway, moving past the QB issue, the Irish should be able to move the ball effectively against a weak Michigan defense irrespective of who is playing at QB.  Cierre Wood was electric last week and, provided that Notre Dame does not fall behind early, Kelly should lean on him heavily to carry the offensive load, which will obviously open up the passing game for Rees.  Of course, we have seen enough examples of Kelly abandoning the run entirely (e.g., Tulsa) to expect him to rely on his ground game to generate offense. 

Defensively, this one is tough to predict.  Notre Dame looked strong along the front seven last week, but any Irish fan who watched last year’s game against Michigan is probably still having nightmares about Denard Robinson.  Although the jury is still out as to whether Robinson will adapt to Al Borges’s new offensive system, it would be folly to expect Notre Dame to shut down Michigan completely in this contest.  On the other hand, if the Irish can make Michigan one-dimensional by establishing a solid lead, the defense could force some mistakes from Robinson, who is still inconsistent as a pure passer.  

I don’t even want to address special teams after last week, except to say that things can’t get worse.  At least I hope they can’t.

As noted in my season preview (and as told repeatedly to anyone who will listen to me (which is a short list)), this is the most critical game of the season.  Even prior to the USF game, beating Michigan was imperative for the Irish, who have lost two straight to their abominable enemies to the north.  As if breaking this two game losing streak was not important enough, another defeat could create substantially adverse recruiting consequences for Notre Dame in light of the Wolverines’ early momentum on the recruiting trail under new coach Brady Hoke.  Finally, and perhaps most obviously, an 0-2 start could cause this season to spiral completely out of control for Kelly and his staff.  

Unfortunately, as is virtually always the case at Notre Dame, the Irish will find a way to come up short in a game that they desperately need.  Let the seppuku watch begin.

Michigan 31 Notre Dame 27

Phil: Notre Dame

To make my Saturday even worse, I had to watch the purple faced Brian Kellys turn the ball over 3 times inside the 5 en route to an uninspiring L at the hands of Skip Holtz. I said that I was not thrilled with Crist being named the starter, and boy was I right. I have never seen a more gifted physical specimen be so unable to perform when the lights are on. I cannot think of a comparison it is so baffling. I was hoping that Hendrix could dust off some of that 4 star talent and take the helm, but I gotta admit, I like Rees' moxie. Had he played the whole game against USF, I think we win. The kid knows how to look for Floyd, and he just makes plays. 

Looking back upon last week, didn't it all seem eerily familiar? An optimistic ND aura is dashed by an up and coming middle of the pack team with better raw athletes on the field. It has happened so many times over the past years, and I am sick of hearing a gleeful opposing coach tell the camera that he told his players "this is the biggest game they have played."  I cannot put my finger on it, but it is like we need to have NFL talent and supreme focus to overcome every team's best shot week in and week out, and we just don't have it. 

Despite what I perceive as a lack of talent or focus or both, I find myself again believing in the Irish, and I feel that we can beat Michigan. The night game at the big house will be wild, but Rees will lead a much more focused Irish squad to the W. Cierre Wood should get 80-100 yards, Eifert and Floyd should take advantage of single coverage, and I hope Te'o smothers Shoelace. 

ND 30 Mich 24

WeIs Roundtable Week 2 Picks: Attack of the Road Favorites

Crazy thing - I had to evacuate my house both times I tried to jot down thoughts on the USF nightmare.  So you're spared my rambling rant, lament and incoherent babble on the Precautionary Measures Bowl (we'll come up with a catchier name for the game, even if we don't want to remember it).  Starting things off with the lone favored home team among our selections:

Utah @ USC (-9)

Dan: Utah (+9)

Neither team looked very good last week. USC squeaked by the Gophers, and Utah let a 1-AA team hang around (after opening up 17-0). I wish it were 10 points, but I think USC is still in a bit of turmoil and isn’t ready to start blowing teams out yet. Their offense is not firing. 

USC 20 Utah 13

Jeremy: Utah (+9)  Lock of the Week

I fully expect the Trojans to bounce back from their miserable performance of last week and pick up the W here, but I think they'll struggle.  The Utes are looking to make a statement in their first Pac-12 game and give SC all they want at home

USC 24  Utah 17

Jimmy: Utah (+9)

Utah circled this game as soon as they agreed to join the Pac-10/12.  They may have ben looking past Montana State just a tad in their underwhelming victory (though they were up 24-0 3 minutes into the 2nd quarter.  The dogs may have been called off a little early in order to preserve the element of surprise for the Trojans).  You can bet your ass Kyle Whittingham* has the Utes mentally prepared to enter the Coliseum and send a message to the “leader” of the Pac(k).  Lane “Spaulding” Kiffin will be out-coached in this one, even if he has more talented players.  Think Utah sticks around late, but ultimately gets edged, but since I’m already picking the Utes to cover, why not full-on spite the Trojans and predict the upset.  Welcome to the Pac-12.  

Utah 33  USC 29

*A shame his name might be mispronounced or misconstrued with another coach that bears its resemblance in sound alone, certainly not proficiency in the coaching trade.

Random Pac-12 Thought While Walking to the Train: With all this re-alignment super-conference talk, would Boise State merit ANY consideration for inclusion into the Pac-12/16?  They’re a Mountain Time state school bordering a state adjacent to the Pacific Ocean.  As long as Chris Peterson stays on the sideline, they will be a football power.  I’m guessing they don’t have the pedigree of other sports and academics that other school resumes have.  But there’s been nary a mention that I’ve read.  Nothing at all.  Maybe BSU is fine with that, but if the perceived, if not stated, goal of the super-conferences is an arms race to collect all the talented football programs, how does Boise State not enter the equation?

Mike: Utah (+9)

The season is just a week old, but year 2 of the Lane Kiffin era already bears a keen resemblance to the inaugural year. Although USC has several very good players at the skill positions, namely Matt Barkley and Robert Woods, they are not even in the same stratosphere as their championship squads from last decade.  Moreover, depth remains an issue for the Trojans at multiple positions, including linebacker and offensive line.  Utah likely will not fare especially well in its jump in class to the Pac 12 over the course of a full season, but they should hang with USC in L.A. this week.

USC 23 Utah 16 

Phil: USC (-9) 

I am going to be brief in this one, cause I got things to say about the others. USC is talented. Utah is the new kid on the block. I like the Trojans in this one.

USC 31 Utah 16

Alabama (-9) @ Penn State

Dan: Bama (-9.5)  Lock of the Week

Alabama versus a big 10 team with a single point spread? Forget about it. Roll tide.

Alabama 31 Penn State 13

Jeremy: Alabama (-9.5)

Honestly, you could make this line 14, or even 17, and I'd probably still pick Bama.  Even in Happy Valley.

Alabama 34  PSU 17

Jimmy: (Alabama -9)  Lock of the Week

A great tradition between these two programs.  (LINKS)  Saban’s defense should suffocate whichever ineffective QB JoePa wants to risk getting injured.  The Tide control both lines and Trent Richardson builds on his 3 TD performance  vs. Kent State with a Heisman statement performance in Happy Valley.  

Alabama 27  Penn State 3

Mike: Alabama (-9.5)

Alabama manhandled Penn State’s pop gun offense in Tuscaloosa last year and Nick Saban will bring an equally formidable outfit to Happy Valley this year.  Unfortunately for Penn State, the change of venue will not cause Robert Bolden, Matt McGloin or any other members of the Nittany Lion offense to feel any less overwhelmed by the dominating Crimson Tide defense.  Despite having two young quarterbacks at the helm in their first true road test before a crowd of approximately 110,000 people, Alabama will rely on running and defense to control this game from start to finish.

Alabama 23 Penn State 7 

Phil: Penn State (+9)

Does anyone realize how dominant the Bama D was last week. Kent St had around 40 yards of offense until late in the 3rd quarter when Saban put in his 3rd string. It wouldn't have mattered if AJ McBrodie and the black Phil Simms had thrown 8 INTs each, Kent St was not gonna move the ball. That being said, Penn St is a step up (hopefully), and Bama must travel. I am certain Bama has a superior team, but the lackluster QB play will keep the Nittany Lions close. Sadly, even if Bama turns it over deep in their own territory, the D is just too good to move on. 

Bama 16 Penn St 9

Mississippi State (-7) @ Auburn

Dan: Auburn (+7)

Unfortunately , two fantasy drafts and a short week makes for even shorter discussion than usual. I know what happened last week, but a home SEC opener and getting a touchdown? Too many points. I’ll take the home dog. Auburn’s defense rallies. 

Mississippi State 21 Auburn 17

Jeremy: Auburn (+7)

After going about 7 different ways on this one, I've simply decided that 7 points is too many for a game at Jordan-Hare.  Sure, Auburn should have lost last week, but I'm willing to write that off as a wake-up call.  Interesting to see what Brother Phil has to say about this game.

Mississippi St. 31  Auburn 28

Jimmy: Mississippi State (-7)

Honestly, do Auburn fans really care how the team does this year?  Feel like they rubbed the gold straight off the lamp using up all their genie wishes making last year’s dream season come true.  First game jitters is one thing, but needing a miracle finish to beat Utah State is a cry for help.  The shoes of Cam Newton, DARvin Adams (one of Verne Lundquist’s favorite names from 2010), Nick Fairley and a whole mess of others aren’t going to be filled this year.  I’m sure they’ll win some wild shoot-outs, but this week doesn’t look to be one of them.  Like the momentum Coach Mullen has going in Starkville.  Few teams walk into Jordan-Hare as touchdown favorites, but it looks like it’s gonna be one of those years.  

My question remains - do Auburn fans truly care about this year?  How long is the grace period?  3 years?  5 years?  How do we tap into the nerve of another SEC school?

Mississippi St. 48  Auburn 36

Mike: Mississippi State (-7)

Phil Steele picked Auburn to finish in the SEC West Division cellar and, given their embarrassing performance against Utah State on opening day, it seems clear that the Tigers are facing a precipitous fall from the top this year.  Having watched Mississippi State’s explosive multifaceted running attack last week, albeit against a weak Memphis team, I cannot imagine that Auburn’s defense will provide much resistance. Mississippi State, in convincing fashion, will hand Auburn its first of many losses this year.

Mississippi State 41 Auburn 21

Phil: Auburn (+7)

Where to begin, I have never seen a team so weak at the OL and DL as Auburn was last week. The USU coach even said in the postgame that "we felt we were stronger." We were pushed around and dominated like a high school team for much of the game last week. Malzahn had 18 "3 and out" possessions LAST YEAR, and he had 5 last week. A complete embarrassment for the champs. I speculated early in the fall if Fairley would be missed more than Cam, and I may have been right. Word from practice this week is that the insertion of some stud freshman and some slight realignment will have the OL better, but the DL, well, I think we are stuck with what we got. To make matters worse, we have the slowest, poorest tackling LBs that I can remember on an Auburn team. Bad combination. That is unfortunate considering Mrs. St ran up 600+ yards and 60 points last week. Plus, they have become quite a hated rival since these FALSE allegations against my man Cam Newton. 

However, there was some good out of last week. Trotter showed me that he is not just some spindly white kid who played high school ball at a Christian school. He ran the offense well, and actually won us the game. We found a playmaker at WR in Travante Stallworth, and oh yeah, remember the Tre Mason mention last week, turns out the kid is a banshee returning kicks (which is good, seeing as Mrs. St may be kicking off alot).

Despite my ranting, I do still have faith in Chizik and Malzahn. I have faith in a wake up call rousing the boys to put forth a maximal effort. I have seen these teams give up tons of points, only to have Malzahn rescue us. My head says one thing, but as always in these situations, I will go with my heart.

AUBURN 41  Mrs. St 38

South Carolina (-3) @ Georgia

Dan: South Carolina (-3)

Stephen Garcia, 7^th year senior, is back under center for Spurrier. I think the hot seat for Richt continues to get warmer, and the Game Cocks open the conference season with a W between the hedges. 

South Carolina 24 Georgia 17

Jeremy: Georgia (+3)

Guess I'm all about the underdogs this week.  This is a desperation game for Mark Richt.  If he falls to 0-2, the wolves will be out in force.  I think Aaron Murray gets his coach a big win here in an ugly game between the hedges.

Georgia 17  South Carolina 13

Jimmy: South Carolina (-3)

No time like Week 2 for a cruiserweight SEC bout.  Whether either team is ready is inconsequential.  Georgia is still licking their wounds from their Bronco smackdown.  No surprises with this guy that Boise State is legit and handled UGA the same way they’ve beaten every other BCS team they’ve played over the last 5 years.  Spurrier didn’t have to tip to much vs. East Carolina, even though they needed a big 3rd quarter to pull away.  Think Stephen Garcia airs it out to stud Alshon Jeffery a little more this week and that will prove the difference.  Go Cocks.

South Carolina 37  Georgia 30

Mike: South Carolina (-3) Lock of the Week 

After watching his Gamecocks stumble out of the gate to a 17 point deficit, Steve Spurrier wisely replaced QB Connor Shaw with Stephen Garcia, who is poised for a monster senior year in Columbia if he can stay out of his coach’s doghouse and the county jailhouse.  Speaking of stumbling, Georgia laid a giant egg in its de facto home game last week against Boise State and it appears that Mark Richt’s days are numbered in Athens.  The recent games in this series have been closely contested and low scoring, but that trend will not continue this season.

South Carolina 31 Georgia 17

Phil: South Carolina (-3) Lock of the Week

UGA looked like a dumpster fire last week. South Carolina rolled after Spurrier got off his power trip and played his best players. I can guarantee you he was saving something for this rivalry game. I said last week that UGA has talent, and Richt wastes it. After this ass thrashing ensues, I think the days of Richt wasting talent in Athens will soon be over. Lattimore and Alshon will run rampant in this game, and the only thing that can stop USCe is a Garcia bender/orgy the night before. 

South Car 38 UGA 21

Bonus Picks

Dan: New Mexico State @ Minnesota (-20)

You know me. New Mexico State just lost to Ohio at home by 20, and now go on the road to a Big 10 school and only get 20? I’ll take it.

Minnesota 45  New Mexico State 14

Jeremy: Navy (-10) @ Western Kentucky

Interested to see how the Middies perform this year without Ricky Freaking Dobbs taking the snaps at QB.  Have a hard time believing they aren't getting more respect against the Hilltoppers.

Navy 35  WKU 20

Jimmy: TCU (-2) @ Air Force

Burned by the Horned Frogs last week, my confidence in their program remains unwavering.  Robert Griffin III bought an early release Cam Newton Halloween costume and willed the Bears to a win.  Was I shocked that they hung 50 on the previously stout Purple Haze defense?  Big time.  Do I think their pride is at stake and will rout a service academy this week?  Ditto big time.

TCU 44  Air Force 21

Mike: Middle Tennessee State @ Georgia Tech (-11)

After foolishly declaring myself to be bullish on UCLA, I will risk further ridicule by casting my lot with Georgia Tech this year.  Al Groh’s defense should improve in year 2 and Paul Johnson’s track record suggests that he should be able to correct many of the offensive mistakes that plagued the Jackets last year.  We’ll soon see if my confidence is rewarded.

Georgia Tech 42  Middle Tennessee State 17 

Phil: Arizona (+14) @ Oklahoma State

Known nationwide as the battle between my college fantasy starting quarterbacks, nothing would make happier than seeing a nice 64-58 outcome. Blackmon should have lots of opportunities to shine, but I am hoping that Foles can sling it around and make it close for the Zona.

OSU 56 Zona 49

Last Week's Results
Dan  4-2  (+ Lock of the Week)
Jeremy  2-4  (-)
Jimmy  2-3-1  (-)
Matt  2-4  (-)
Mike  1-5  (-)
Phil  2-4  (+)

Rough start for everyone, save Dan.  Target's on his back.