WeIs Roundtable Week 12 Picks: Conference Cream Rising Edition

Not the most stellar week of matchups, but a few top 25 contests that should be entertaining.  Dan is out of the country researching his soon-to-be-supporting favorite Dutch Eredivisie Premier League team.  So only 4 of us waxing prose (no haikus this week) on the top games.  The picks...

 

Nebraska (+3) at Michigan

Jeremy: Michigan (-3)
Nebraska will no doubt find some interesting ways to move the ball, but the deficiencies in the passing game will eventually be their undoing in the Big House.

Michigan 28  Nebraska 20

Jimmy: Nebraska (+3)

December 28, 2005.  Dragged to Chicago’s Michigan bar Duffy’s for some bowl game action, (a venue that ranks behind Greenland’s 5^th best outdoor sports bar in my book.  Even the dog on the bar’s marquee looks bummed to have Michigan fans always over to watch games) I made the best of the situation.  Michigan happened to be playing the Cornhuskers and I happened to still own my bright red Dillon Hall “It’s Alright To Be Jealous” shirt.  Nebraska survived that night, much to my fellow patrons’ chagrin (and my delight).  That was the last time these two heavyweights squared off, though there's rich history that exists between the schools.  A lot has happened since 2005, with both programs going through the ringer to get back to respectability, even if neither is back to the smashmouth days of yore.

Denard is one decent hit away from getting shelved.  Even though Brady Hoke has found a RB to rely on now for offense, Bo Pelini is father along in his program reclamation project.  An emotional win in Happy Valley last week sets up a cathartic BCS ticket stamping win this week.  Go Big Red!

Nebraska 27  Michigan 25

Mike: Nebraska (+3)

This may be a product of my virulent anti-Michiganism, but I like Nebraska in this spot.  Although the Wolverines’ defense has improved from last season, Taylor Martinez and Rex Burkhart should be able to find room to maneuver on the ground against Michigan.  In addition, Denard Robinson, who was never exactly a portrait of quarterback accuracy, is banged up this week, which has led to extended playing time for the inexperienced Devin Gardner.  As the old adage goes, if you’ve got two quarterbacks, you’ve really got none.  Look for the Huskers to notch an important victory in Ann Arbor this weekend.

Nebraska 27 Michigan 24

Phil: Michigan (-3)

Nebraska has been one of the most confusing teams for me all year. You would think a Bo Pelini team would have a stout defense, yet they got blasted by Wisconsin, let OSU score a ton of points, and loss to Northwestern. You would also think that Burkhead and T Magic could control the clock and wear teams down, but I don't see them dominating inferior opponents either. Michigan has a good defense, with a bunch of athletes, and then there is little #16 back there, who I will be hard pressed to pick against.

Michigan 27 Nebraska 20

USC (+15) at Oregon

Jeremy: USC (+15)
The Trojans sound like they're a little banged up going into this one, but 15 is too many.

Oregon 37  USC 28

Jimmy: USC (+15)

Well, by the commutative property of wins, USC’s 3 point OT loss to Stanford equates to a 24 point loss at the hands of the Ducks.  But USC’s speed matches up a little better against the Flying Water Fowl.  With no PAC-12 title game to prepare for (a shame given the alternatives stumbling to win the division) and no bowl game on the horizon, this game in Autzen is USC’s de facto BCS showdown.  The kitchen, microwave, toaster, dishwasher and even the sink are getting thrown at Oregon to remind America not to sleep on ‘SC.  Still don’t think they win, but they cover the 2 TD+ spread. 

Oregon 48  USC 41

Mike: USC (+15)

It’s taken 10 games, but I have finally come around to USC.  Although I was extremely disappointed after our loss to USC and I assumed that Stanford and Oregon would both annihilate them, it appears that the Trojans are indeed a credible outfit.  Oregon waxed USC in Los Angeles last year and the Ducks are rounding into championship form, especially on defense, so a blowout is certainly not out of the question.   Nonetheless, USC is a better team than last year, primarily due to the improved play of Matt Barkley, and they should be able to score enough points to cover this hefty spread.

Oregon 44 USC 31

Phil: Oregon (-15)

Chip Kelly is at his best when his speed can dominate a game. Stanford was a good matchup for Oregon, as their strength was no match for the Ducks' speed. It was only my hatred for Alabama that let me miss that pick. This week, USC also has speed, but they only dress like 50 players and I can easily see Oregon scoring late and Kelly getting his ridiculous 2 pt conversion to cover. Plus, he knows that style points will count as there could be a bunch of teams with 1 loss vying for title game spots.

Oregon 47 USC 27

Kansas State (+9) at Texas

Jeremy: Kansas State (+9)
The battle between two Big XII teams who are nowhere near as good as their rankings suggest. I have no idea who's going to win this game, but I can almost guarantee you it’s going to be a close one.

Texas 34  Kansas St. 31

Jimmy: Kansas State (+9)  Lock of the Week

What am I missing here?  Texas doesn’t have a QB yet Mack Brown trusts and doesn’t have an RB available without a doctor’s permission slip.  Bill Snyder’s team very narrowly missed knocking off the indestructible OSU force.  Kansas State has found a way to make every game close and exciting (except a behind the woodshed game vs. OU).  They're 7-2 against the spread on the season.  Texas has lost to all 3 teams they've played with a pulse.  So why are the Wildcats 9 point dogs?  I’m capitalizing on the Dangerfield treatment and riding the Collin Klein Extravaganza to an outright victory in Austin.

Kansas State 34  Texas 27

Mike: Kansas State (+9)  Lock of the Week

While Kansas State seemed to be a fraud after its embarrassing home defeat against Oklahoma, the Wildcats have acquitted themselves nicely in the past two weeks against Texas A&M and Oklahoma State.  Meanwhile, anyone who dared to suffer through Gus Johnson’s screaming to watch Texas last week was able to witness a team with severe quarterback issues, as David Ash and Case McCoy struggled mightily against a pedestrian Missouri team.  Texas could benefit this week from the return of one or both of their starting running backs, Bergeron and Brown, though I suspect that the offensive problems will continue in Austin.  By contrast, Kansas State is clicking on all cylinders under do-it-all quarterback Collin Klein, so an outright upset may be in the cards.

Kansas State 28 Texas 27

Phil: Kansas St (+9)  Lock of the Week

Am I reading this correctly? Is this a perfect example of blue-bloodism? Or is this Vegas realizing that Texas has a huge following of looney fans that will love their team at home against anyone?? I would have taken K St in this game as a 9 point favorite.

K St 28 Texas 10

Oklahoma (-14.5) at Baylor

Jeremy: Oklahoma (-14.5)  Lock of the Week
The Sooners are on a mission to try and fight their way into the title picture, and the only way they're going to do so is by annihilating their competition.  Baylor started out hot this year, but is on the verge of collapse, and Landry Jones and Co. will provide the necessary push to knock them right over the edge.

Oklahoma 55  Baylor 20

Jimmy: Oklahoma (-14.5)

It’s hard not to like Baylor.  Unless you’re of the staunch, old guard, defense is the foundation of everything mentality and teams that ignore/refuse/appear to play 9 on 11 don’t deserve your respect.  If you fall in this category, you probably have other underlying issues.  But if you can appreciate an overachieving small, private religious institution duking it out with huge, resource-rich state schools who happen to be led by charismatic field generals with slick nicknames, then Baylor is the team for you.  RGIII is an entertainer at heart and will do his best to keep things interesting Saturday.

Meanwhile, despite losing their starting RB and one of the best collegiate receivers ever, the Sooners could score on the Bears with Norman’s intramural champs.  Landry Jones will push 500 yards spreading the love to The Pips (yes, that means Ryan Broyles = Gladys Knight…not the most anatomically correct comparison, but a star nonetheless).  BCS is still on Bob Stoops’ radar and a convincing win in Waco will keep them on path to an epic Bedlam matchup. 

Oklahoma 57  Baylor 35

Mike: Baylor (+14.5)

As Oklahoma sat at home healing up for its stretch run, Baylor needed a furious fourth quarter rally to force overtime, thereby avoiding an ignominious defeat to lowly Kansas.  In addition, Oklahoma has been quite reliable through the years in its familiar role as a double digit favorite.  Given my performance this year, however, I think it’s time to channel my inner George Costanza and do the exact opposite of my natural inclination.

Oklahoma 41 Baylor 31

Phil: Baylor (+14.5)

Interesting game for Stoops' club. One last hurdle before Bedlam and a huge matchup with OSU. This is not a game you wanna sleep on either. It is an away game and RG3 can light it up. Admittedly, when playing the upper echelon teams on the road, RG3 struggles, but this game is in the friendly confines of notoriously loud Floyd Casey Stadium. I think OU will win, but it will be close.

Oklahoma 44 Baylor 35

Bonus Picks

Jeremy: Akron @ Buffalo (-11.5)
Staying with my Zips this week.  The Rob Ianello farewell tour is going quite well, thank you.

Jimmy:Miami (-1.5) @ South Florida

The Bulls peaked during the 1st half of their 1st game of the season.  Sadly, it was at ND's expense.  A 4-game losing streak against the "vaunted" Big East gauntlet of opposition is clinically referred to as backwards progress.  Miami will like nothing better than to remind South Florida there's only one team that matters south of Gainesville and it's the Canes.  

Miami 33  USF 20

Mike: Arizona (+10.5) over Arizona State

Does any team repel success quite like Arizona State?  With USC’s bowl ban, there is no reason why the Sun Devils shouldn’t have already clinched the woeful Pac-12 South, but here we are.  Arizona has just two wins this season and they are coming off an embarrassing defeat at Colorado, so there’s no apparent reason to pick the Wildcats here.  Still, it’s a rivalry game and ASU is equal parts injured and mentally shaky.  Will we see more extra point hijinks in this year’s installment of the Territorial Cup?  I, for one, hope so.

Arizona 35 Arizona State 34

Phil: Virginia (+17) @ FSU

Hasn't this game been played already this year? All these ACC teams other than Va Tech and Miami run together for me. When does basketball season start? Has FSU covered once this year? Why all the questions? Who cares?

FSU 24 Virginia 17

Last Week

Dan: 4-2 (- Lock of Week)

Jeremy: 4-2 (+)

Jimmy: 3-3 (-)

Mike: 2-4 (-)

Phil: 5-1 (+)

Season To Date

Dan:39-24 (8-3)

Jeremy: 38-25-1 (7-4)

Jimmy: 36-25-3 (8-3)

Mike: 28-35-1 (6-4-1)

Phil: 35-27-1 (7-3-1)

Notre Dame vs. Navy - Barnstorming Baltimore

Dan: Notre Dame

Injuries are starting to compound some difficulties, particularly for the Irish defense. However, Maryland has been pretty terrible of late. They have lost their last 5 games, and went 1-4 against the spread. They are 1-7 against the spread since the opening fireworks against Miami. If you throw out that head scratcher against Clemson, they have averaged less than 14 points a game in their last 6 against D-1 opponents. Moral of the story – they suck.

Notre Dame 38 Maryland 17

Jeremy: Notre Dame

Once again, the big story in the Irish Nation this week has little to do with anything that happened in the Dash last Saturday.  It never ceases to amaze how the ND faithful can work themselves into a tizzy over the most trivial of matters.  Of course the helmets for this weekend's "Shamrock Series" (sponsored by Sprint!!) are hideous.  But as long as this is, at most, a once-a-year type thing (and if you believe Swarbrick, it will be), I don't see the problem with doing something fun that the younger portions of the fanbase, and the team itself, can have fun with.

Although the injuries are really starting to take their toll, the Irish can afford to lick their wounds a bit the next two weeks.  Maryland is pretty lousy and the Terps should have a tough time stopping the Irish.  Would like to see Andrew Hendrix get some more reps this week, and see Tommy bounce back from his subpar effort against Wake.  Irish win big here as they try to keep getting better in advance of the big showdown over Thanksgiving weekend.

ND 41 Maryland 24

Jimmy: Notre Dame

The traveling circus that is Notre Dame football barnstorms its way to a Baltimore tour stop for the 2^nd edition of the Shamrock Series.  TANGENT ALERT!  TANGENT ALERT!

Apparently this is now a tradition.  While on the surface it seems to be a lame marketing excuse to peddle Adidas’ latest jersey/helmet/glove du jour, the concept isn’t bad in theory.  I’m all for mixing up the jerseys and trying different color combinations and unveiling different helmets.  (For a good laugh, here's EDSBS' take on the helmet series).  Nike’s experimental fashion shows with Oregon have helped the Ducks’ program immensely.  There's a ton of buzz each fall to see what the new designs will be.  Under Armour is hoping for similar success and exposure with Maryland.  I don’t need to be convinced that there’s opportunities for Adidas and ND to capitalize on.  It's the reality of the sports marketing world we live in - there's programs ahead of the curve, programs piggybacking on this lead, and programs stubbornly digging their heels in the traditional past.  While a good majority of ND Nation wants the latter, being ahead of the curve offers the greatest opportunity for the program, both in dollars and recruiting today's best athletes.  Unfortunately, right now, many of the marketing efforts fall into the piggyback category -- I'm looking at you in-game stadium music director.  The Shamrock Series is a step in the direction of getting ahead of the curve.  While this installment seemed to take everyone by surprise and some of the design features may turn off fans, it's a process that I'm willing to see tweaks and more of in the future.  The fact that it's only planned for one game a year may help appease the traditionalists fuddy-duddy ways.  We've got some wise words coming in the next week or so from our very own Doug on the 3-year barnstorming experiment: what works, what doesn't, and what's best for the future.  The topic of marketing and branding ND football isn't going away anytime soon. 

Oh right, there’s a game at the center of this marketing /barnstorming concoction.  In their 1^st season under new coach Randy Edsall, Maryland has been dirty diaper stinky.  If you recall, Charlie Weis’ last home game provided Edsall with his defining career moment.  A sequel is not in the works, though the game will nonetheless have some intrigue.  Does Mike Golic, Jr seamlessly replace Braxton Cave at center and maintain the line’s dominance? Does Jonas Gray's meteoric rise up NFL scouts lists continue?  Does Tommy Rees quell some doubts and put a complete performance together against an undermanned Terrapin secondary?  Does someone, anyone, return a punt for an above average 0.4 yards?

ND 36  Maryland 13

Mike: Notre Dame

Notre Dame’s barnstorming tour of the Mid-Atlantic continues this week with a trip to Landover to play a Maryland team that is in complete freefall.  Following a promising opening victory over Miami for Randy Edsall, the Terps have been putrid ever since (in both play and attire, though Notre Dame appears poised to out-ugly the Terps in the latter category this week). 

On offense, Maryland has received solid but unspectacular play from Davin Meggett, but their passing game has been awful.  Incumbent starter Danny O’Brien has regressed badly in his sophomore campaign, while backup C.J. Brown, though mobile, has not shown any consistent ability as a passer.  Defensively, Maryland is a complete sieve, especially against the run.  In light of Maryland’s inability to slow the run, it would be complete folly for the Irish not to rely overwhelmingly on Cierre Wood and Jonas Gray.  Then again, with Brian Kelly calling the plays, it would almost be surprising not to see a foolish and reckless dependence on the turnover prone Tommy Rees.

Obviously, there is no reason why the Irish shouldn’t win this game handily against a severely overmatched foe that has struggled in all three phases of the game.  Of course, if past performance is any indication, one can expect Kelly to revert to his old stubborn habit of forsaking a dominant ground game in favor of a shaky quarterback.  Rees will toss his picks and the running backs will bail out the offense the game.  Rinse, wash, repeat.

Notre Dame 31 Maryland 21

Phil: Notre Dame

The battle of the ugly uniforms! This is essentially a home game for the Terrapins in this next installment of several "destination" games for the Irish. Please allow me to voice my opinion on these games - 

I love the idea of broadening your horizons and taking games to places we would otherwise not go. But why on earth would we choose locations like NYC, DC, and Ireland for crying out loud. We need to play these games in areas where there are more stud high school football prospects - like Houston, ATL, Miami, New Orleans, etc. If we are gonna spend money and travel, go to where the goods are. That is all. 

As far as the game goes, similar to last week. We should win and we should win handily. However, this Irish squad, as with many in years past, plays at the level of the competition and Randy Edsall has bested us with an inspired performance in the past. But then again, it is about the time we go on a run, and build up hope for next year....

Irish 34 Maryland 24

WeIs Roundtable Week 11 Picks: West Coast Heavyweight Title Bout Edition

In the wake of the most exhilarating 15 points combined (can we confirm this is an overtime game record), we march on to Week 11.  But first, a few leftover thoughts on LSU-Alabama:

- No rematch necessary.  What more does LSU have to prove?  They won in enemy territory with one astounding interception and no controversy.  Whichever undefeated is left standing (save Houston) deserves the right to knock the king of the mountain off, provided LSU gets through their remaining tests. 

- Add another chapter to The Legend of The Hat, a sure-fire bestselling children’s book in Louisiana for decades on end. 

- Trent Richardson absolutely still belongs in the Heisman Race.  Don’t feel like he lost any ground, though he could have inched ahead with a go-ahead TD on the stat sheet.  The guy simply runs through tackles better than anyone and is bound to make an NFL team very happy. 

- Both defenses suffocated all scoring threats into mere field goal opportunities.  If Nick Lachey were hosting this “Kick Off,” Bama would have been voted off at halftime.  Wha’ happened?  Doesn’t Alabama always have trusty kickers?  Aren’t there 4 rotating families of Bama kickers who breed generations of reliable place kicking?  Did they all birth black sheep at the same time?

Ok, on to the picks…

Virginia Tech (-1) at Georgia Tech (Thursday)

Dan: Virginia Tech (-1)

Georgia Tech has been an enigma for me all season. I can’t seem to get them right in the gambling arena. But, VT has had a week off to prepare for the spread, and despite a lackluster performance against Duke, I think they get things done in Atlanta.

Virginia Tech 21 Georgia Tech 17

Jeremy: Virginia Tech (-1)

Its about that time again.  When Va. Tech quietly makes their run through the ACC and finds their way into the ACC title game and the BCS.  I know many of my colleagues here have a thing for the Fightin' Paul Johnsons, and I can certainly sympathize.  The home dog with a great running game seems like a sure thing.  Guess I'm going against the conventional wisdom with this one.

Virginia Tech 31  Georgia Tech 28

Jimmy: Georgia Tech (+1)

The battle for Technologic supremacy amongst players who are, for the most part, not stepping within 100 yards of any buildings housing said technologic schools of study.  Think you would have to track down grainy team manager footage of Carnegie Tech vs. Cal Tech for a true Tech tussle.  But ESPN broadcasts this ACC matchup, so it matters to us (and Vegas and bowl execs, etc.)  Both teams enjoyed bye weeks to prepare for this.  Last time they played, Paul Johnson’s squad ended a two game losing streak by sullying Clemson’s perfect season.   Meanwhile, the Hokies eeked out a win on the road at Duke.  Not exactly the momentum you want to ride into Atlanta with.  I was leaning Lunch Pail crew at first, but I’m changing course and siding with the home team to hang on in an entertaining Thursday night game.

Ga Tech. 31 Va. Tech 27

Mike: Georgia Tech (+1)

Virginia Tech has owned the ACC Coastal Division for years, but they face a stern test against Georgia Tech.  The Hokies are banged up on defense, which does not bode well against a Rambling Wreck attack that can be ruthlessly efficient when operating at full throttle.  In addition, Georgia Tech’s defense has improved in its second year under the tutelage of Al Groh.  All signs point to an entertaining Thursday night affair in Atlanta with the Jackets pulling out a hard fought victory in this battle of the Techs.

Georgia Tech 31 Virginia Tech 28

Phil: Virginia Tech (-1)  Lock of the Week 

As the line indicates, this game is a toss up. VT has quietly put together another solid season, with their only loss coming at the hands of surpising Clemson. GT and their Wing T Option gives teams fits, but they can be beaten by disciplined, athletic teams such as, err...Miami!?!  Nevermind. The difference in this game is the fact that Va Tech has had extra days to prepare for the option. Beamer will have his boys ready to play.

Va Tech 24 GT 20

Miami (+9.5) at Florida State

Dan: Miami (+9.5)

Florida State has obliterated their last 4 opponents. Those teams have been Duke, Maryland, NC State, and Boston College. Those are terrible teams. Miami is inconsistent, but I think they can hang with the Seminoles and keep it to a touchdown.

Florida State 28 Miami 21

Jeremy: Miami (+9.5)  Lock of the Week

I can certainly see the Noles running away with this one, but my snap judgment is that 9.5 is way too many points for a rivalry game with this many athletes on the field.

FSU 27 Miami 20

Jimmy: Miami (+9.5)

First, a haiku ode to the Sunshine State’s current rut:

Where are you in polls –

Gators, ‘Noles, Canes, Bulls and Knights?

State of Florida sad

I’m sure someone in ESPN’s Stats, Inc. department who actually gets paid to look up important trends like this has already done so.  Until I unearth that pearl of wisdom, I’m just going to assume it’s been many many moons since FSU, Miami and Florida (and USF, UCF, Florida International, yada yada yada) all finished outside the top 25 at the end of the year.  Not even Hanging Chad-gate could shut the state of Florida out of polls.  Not saying it’s gonna happen this year, but the possibility is in play.

Back to the game, Miami has been a bit Jekyll and Hyde this year with dominating wins vs. Ohio State and Georgia Tech and tight losses to Kansas State, Virginia Tech, Virginia and Maryland (half the Hurricanes were suspended and the cloud of the Death Penalty hung low over this game, so excusable given the circumstances).  On the other side, since losing 3 straight to Oklahoma, Clemson and Wake, FSU has destroyed the conference bottom feeders with no game being close than 25 points. 

The smart play here is take the generous spread, especially in a rivalry game where both sides know each other well and it comes down to emotions and execution more than anything.  With everything Miami has been through this year, this date has been circled all season as the beginning of Operation Reclaim Florida.  Al Golden will have his players running through walls to continue their rebuilding plan.  This is always appointment television regardless of records and this year is no different - will an errant field goal make its way back into the lore of this rivalry?

Miami 33  FSU 31

Mike: Miami (+9.5)

Given my affinity for rivalries (especially those involving trophies or wagers between politicians), I always enjoy watching this game, regardless of record.  Despite Miami’s mediocre performance this year, Jacory Harris has quietly developed into the premier quarterback in the ACC and perhaps one of the best signal callers in the nation for the Hurricanes.  As such, I expect Miami to move the ball somewhat effectively against a tough Seminole defense if the Canes’ offensive line can keep Harris upright.  Florida State appears to be hitting its stride as well, so it will not surprise me if the Seminoles are able to handle their Sunshine State rivals with relative ease.  Having said that, I have a hunch that Al Golden’s bunch will deliver an inspired performance on the road for an enormous program win (culminating with a missed field goal…wide right).

Miami 27 Florida State 24

Phil: Miami (+9.5)

This point spread seems too big for such a rivalry game. Jimbo Fisher has proven he can recruit with the best of them, but I am not sure of his in game caoching just yet, although the Noles seem to have righted the ship after a 3 game skid last month. I think Golden will keep the Canes competitive, although FSU at home should take care of business.

FSU 28 Miami 21

Auburn (+12.5) at Georgia

Dan: Auburn (+12.5)  Lock of the Week

I’m sorry – isn’t this exactly the type of game that Mark Richt loses? Now, with Moseley making only his 2^nd start, and the game in Athens, I don’t think they blow this one. But no way they beat Auburn by two touchdowns.

Georgia 24 Auburn 20

Jeremy: Auburn (+12.5)

See above.  Even Between the Hedges, I'm not confident that the Dawgs can cover this line.  The Auburn offense doesn't seem to be getting any better, but I have a tough time believing Georgia is good enough to win this game by (essentially) 2 TDs.

Georgia 20  Auburn 13

Jimmy: Auburn (+12.5)  Lock of the Week

Too many points for the resilient Tigers.  They’ll find a way to keep this close.  I don’t know about winning (I’m sure Philip will talk himself into a W below), but fully expect a low scoring affair.

Georgia 20  Auburn 17

Mike: Auburn (+12.5)

Auburn has predictably fallen quickly to Earth this year after its early season flurry of close victories while Georgia has surged after losing its first two games.  Nonetheless, while these teams appear to moving in opposite directions, a tightly contested affair could be in order.  The young Tigers should benefit from their extra week of preparation (even though Georgia probably didn’t waste all of its practice time last week on New Mexico State) and they will be duly motivated for this year’s version of the Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry.  As a side note, will the current version of Uga attempt to assault another Tiger this year, ala Robert Baker?  Stay tuned.

Georgia 24 Auburn 14

Phil: Auburn (+12.5)

The deep south's oldest rivalry took an ugly turn last year, after man child Nick Fairley apaprently tackled UGA QB ERIN Murray a little too hard. The dawgs remember the chippiness of the game, and I anticipate this game will be physical and tough. WHat I like is that Clint Moseley seems to be settling into his QB role and has reintroduced Lutz to the Auburn offense. This is also the first game since week 4 where all our WRs will be healthy. On the defensive side of the ball, El Toro Freeman is finally living up to expectations, and playing inspired football. What I don't like is that I am sure Murray will have a chance to beat our DBs deep on a few occasions. It will take a lot of points for the Tigers to win, but I know they have it in them. WDE.

Auburn 34 UGA 30

Oregon (+3) at Stanford

Dan: Oregon (+3)

Can’t believe I’m going this way, but I see Stanford finally having a hiccup this week. Oregon’s speed is too much for the Stanford defense to handle.

Oregon 41 Stanford 38

Jeremy: Stanford (-3)

Went back and forth on this one quite a bit.  Stanford's new digs don't provide them with a huge home-field advantage (at least not yet), but the combination of Palo Alto and your 2011 Heisman winner puts the Cardinal over the top in what should be a heck of a shootout on Saturday night.

Stanford 45  Oregon 38

Jimmy: Oregon (+3)

Oregon put the clamps down on Luck last season and will figure out a way to keep him in relative check again.  The Cardinal are pretty banged up.  Think this is the week it finally catches up with them.

Oregon 34  Stanford 30 

Mike: Stanford (-3)  Lock of the Week

Oregon broke open a tight game against Stanford last year in Eugene with an explosive second half, but things have certainly changed this year.  While the Ducks continue to run the ball effectively, they have shown signs of weakness in the passing game, as Darron Thomas continues to struggle with a lingering knee injury.  Unfortunately for Oregon, Thomas’s erratic play could spell doom against an explosive Stanford offense led by Andrew Luck and the powerful Cardinal running game.  Stanford will slip by Oregon in a wildly entertaining shootout in out West.

Stanford 49 Oregon 45

Phil: Oregon (+3)

HUGE game out west this weekend. Can the Stanford brawn keep up with the Oregon blaze? Andrew Luck, as Phil Simms will tell you, does not have  a hugely strong arm, and at times, looked as human as he has looked against athletic USC. Oregon will bring speed that Luck hasnt seen before, and I think that the Ducks will win this game. HOWEVER, b/c I in no way want Alabama to have a claim for a rematch for the BCSNCG, I am picking Stanford to continue its march toward undefeatedness.

Stanford 37 Oregon 35

Bonus Picks

Dan: Alabama (-17.5) @ Mississippi State

Sorry Mississippi State. You’re the rebound. Good night.

Alabama 42 Mississippi State 13

Jeremy: Kent (-5) at Akron

After the Zips burned me a few weeks ago, I made the mistake of going away from them last week.  Never again.  This should be a heck of a pillow fight.  

Kent 23  Akron 13

Jimmy: UNLV (-7) @ New Mexico

The Sirken Special.  Can’t believe he didn’t jump all over this single digit gift-wrapped pick.  I don’t need to know anything else.

UNLV 30  New Mexico 10

Bonus Pick (that doesn’t count, but too juicy not to mention):

Louisiana Tech @ Mississippi (+2)

Did Tim Rattay find another year of eligibility?  How is a 4-loss mid major a road favorite against an SEC team?  This isn’t an epically abysmal Ole Miss team.  Just bad enough that lame duck Houston “I Have a Problem” Nutt is riding out the schedule into the sunset.  I have more faith in Nutt actually motivating histeam now, especially to defend their home field against La Tech.  The Rebels have too much pride.

Mississippi 27  Louisiana Tech 24

Mike: Oklahoma State @ Texas Tech (+17.5)

Texas Tech has swiftly fallen from grace after defeating Oklahoma, having been crushed by Iowa State and Texas in consecutive games.  Meanwhile, Oklahoma State continues to amass incredible offensive statistics on a weekly basis.  Still, Tech has not lost its ability to move the ball through the air and 17.5 points is an enormous spread given the venue and OSU’s defensive deficiencies.

Oklahoma State 52 Texas Tech 38

Phil: Oklahoma State (-17) @ Texas Tech

Here's to hoping 3 things happen in regards to this game:

1. My man Weeden continues to put up video game numbers, driving my college fantasy team to the playoffs.

2. Tubs does NOT pull another major upset, thus keeping OSU unbeaten and Bama out of the national title game.

3. OSU covers, as I have picked them all year, and they haven't let me down yet.

OSU 44 Tex Tech 24

Last Week

Dan: 5-1 (+ Lock of Week)

Jeremy: 3-3 (+)

Jimmy: 4-2 (+)

Mike: 3-3 (+)

Phil: 5-1 (+)

Season To Date

Dan: 35-22 (8-2)

Jeremy: 34-23-1 (6-4)

Jimmy: 33-22-3 (8-2)

Mike: 26-31-1 (6-3-1)

Phil: 30-26-1 (6-3-1)

Notre Dame vs. Wake Forest - First Time for Everything

Dan: Notre Dame

Wake is not very good. They are in a rough stretch here. There were slammed by VT and UNC and barely beat Duke. For a while, they were a little bit undervalued from a gambling perspective, but not recently. ND has the ability to dominate and I think they have renewed vigor after the USC post-game shenanigans. ND wins going away because Tommy takes care of the ball.

ND 31 Wake 13


Jeremy: Notre Dame
Not a whole lot to say about this one.  It was heartening to see the Irish finally take care of business against the service academies this year.  And I'd expect more of the same against the 3 ACC sisters of the poor up next on the Irish schedule.  Wake does have that impressive win over FSU, which, in retrospect, looks a whole lot like our USF game from earlier this year.  The Deacs are a little beat up in the backfield, and word is they may have to start a true freshman this week, but the Irish can expect Jim Grobe to have his squad ready, and The Dash will be hopping for the late start.  But Wake doesn't have enough to keep up, and this ends up looking quite a bit like the Purdue beatdown.

ND 38  Wake 17

Jimmy: Notre Dame

Sound the sousa maphones for the 1^st ever play date between the Fighting Irish and Demon Deacons.  First things first, can someone explain exactly what a Demon Deacon is?  Is it literally an almost collared priest who’s possessed by a devilish spirit?  If so, then Notre Dame du Lac’s trip to Winston-Salem is more than just a 60-minute scrimmage that counts.  Why not exorcise the demons that plague the Dash and return Wake Forest to their original state of grace as the Deacons?  Every punishing defensive stop should be echoed by “The power of Christ compels you!”  Not sure how many Traveling Irish will invade BB&T Field, but this would be a great student chant next year.  (Note to self: Write the Observer the week of November 17, 2012). 

Demons and deacons talk aside, this ACC matchup offers a glimpse of what conference affiliation on the eastern seabord would feel like.  As Matt can attest (after completing his MBA at Wake), football culture is an after thought in Winston-Salem.  The 31,000+ “cathedral” formerly known as Groves Stadium reflects that.  With b-ball season starting, Jim Grobe's team has lost the undivided attention of his fanbase (assuming he had it to begin with). 

Now that the kumbaya come together moment of 2011 has pased, Brian Kelly can keep the accelerator on the floor and mop up this ACC tripleheader.  (Is it brilliant scheduling or unfortunate luck that Wake, Maryland & BC are all underachieving.  No complaints here as the team needs victories, and it beats scheduling the Western Michigans of the world).  Fully confident the runaway dual locomotive attack of Wood and Gray keeps gaining steam.  We've said it before, but it bears repeating, this offensive line is playing outstanding.  This romp will be a nice commercial diversion from its prime-time TV counterpart. Go Irish!

ND 45  Wake 17

Mike: Notre Dame

Phil: Notre Dame

Leave it to the Irish to play a complete, carefree game against an inferior opponent on basic cable, one week after laying an egg in primetime against a marquee team. So frustrating. What I know about Wake this year is that they beat an overrated FSU team. What I know about this game is that it will be watched secondary to Bama-LSU. I am hoping Rees, Floyd, Wood, and Gray can again TCB. They should be, as very few people will be watching. Bring on 2012!

Irish 38 Wake 21

WeIs Roundtable Week 10 Picks: Game of the Century Edition

The week we've all been waiting for has arrived.  (And no, I don't mean Notre Dame's long awaited maiden voyage to Winston-Salem).  Appointment television Saturday night.  One of the hundreds of lead-up articles mentioned that this is the first time an SEC regular season game has ever pitted #1 vs. #2.  A bit flabbergasting to me, but whatever piles more expectations on this hyped-beyond-hyped game makes it all the more riveting.  As Samuel L. says in Jurassic Park, "Hold on to your butts."  The picks...

Texas A&M (+14) at Oklahoma

Dan: Oklahoma (-14)

OU bounced back in a big way, much to my chagrin, last week. A&M already had their day in the sun when they demolished a ranked Baylor team. OU is focused and ready to beat the crap out of everyone from here on in an attempt to sneak back into the BCS title game. OU keeps rolling.

OU 41 Texas A&M 21

Jeremy: Oklahoma (-14)

This is not so much an endorsement of Oklahoma as a failure to believe in the A&M hype.  The Sooners realize they're going to have to impress the voters down the stretch, and the Aggies give them the perfect opportunity to start climbing back up the polls.  OU in a big one here.

Oklahoma 48  Texas A&M 27

Jimmy: Texas A&M (+14)

While I don’t doubt the Sooners are still out for BCS blood, just feel like 2 touchdowns is a high bar to clear for a talented, albeit maddeningly inconsistent and cursed with a 2nd half allergy to winning, team.  Mike Sherman needs to finish strong if he wants the privilege of coaching any SEC games.  A competitive effort in circling the wagons for this showdown would go a long way towards job security.

Oklahoma 52  A&M 42

Mike: Oklahoma (-14)  Lock of the Week

Straight picks from Mike as he’s traveling this week.  Anything to shake him out of his slump.

Phil: Oklahoma (-14)

Kansas let me down last week after the Sooners poured it on the 2nd half. Interesting matchup here, as A&M is known to give up big points and OU is defending their home turf. I think that this is the kind of game that Stoops has made his reputation upon, and the Sooners will show up and play well. Tannehill and the Aggies are good, just no match for the home field Sooners.

OU 41 Tex A&M 24

Oregon (-14.5) at Washington

Dan: Oregon (-14.5)

Another big favorite, another cover for the Ducks. Since losing to LSU, Oregon has covered every spread except ASU, and only missed that one by a point or so. Washington was exposed by Stanford and Keith Price struggled last week Against Arizona. I think Sarkisian may be building a nice foundation in Seattle, but they aren’t ready to contend with Oregon again yet. I hate taking so many favorites, but that’s been the story of the year, and I don’t see the Ducks slipping up under the lights. 

Jeremy: Washington (+14.5)

The Huskies burned me a few weeks ago, but they are putting up some pretty impressive offensive numbers and I think they can hang with the Ducks at home.  I'm giving them one more chance.

Oregon 45  Washington 34

Jimmy: Oregon (-14.5)  Lock of the Week

Stanford leaked the blueprint on beating the Huskies like a drum - run, run and more run.  Guess what the Ducks love to do, albeit in their own frenetic spread fashion?  Run the football.  Doesn’t matter who’s under center for Oregon, LaMichael James, Kenjon Barner, and all-everything freshman DeAnthony Thomas will feel like contestants on Supermarket Sweep running rampant through holes as wide as grocery aisles.

Oregon 54  Washington 27

Mike: Washington (+14.5)

Phil: Oregon (-14.5)  Lock of the Week

The Huskies are no match for the speed and finesse of the Ducks, regardless of who is playing QB. Here is an interesting question - why is Chip Kelly never chastised for running up the score in these games a la Spurrier in the late '90s with those FL teams? Is it because no one is up late watching the west coast games? Is it because they are scared of his wrath? I don't know....and it doesn't really matter. Oregon rolls on toward Stanford.

Oregon 45 Washington 21

South Carolina (+4.5) at Arkansas

Dan: Arkansas (-4.5)  Lock of the Week

South Carolina’s defense struggled to stop Arkansas’s aerial attack when Mallett was there, and I see no reason to expect that to change with Tyler Wilson manning the helm now. Throw in that Connor Shaw has continued to struggle and the game is in Fayetteville and you have a recipe for trouble for the Gamecocks. I expect the Razorbacks to bounce back from a frightful performance last week against Vandy.

Arkansas 28 South Carolina 20

Jeremy: Arkansas (-4.5)  Lock of the Week

Loving the home favorites I guess.  Even though the Gamecocks seem to have found themselves a serviceable QB, they're still half the offense they used to be without Marcus Lattimore.  Hogs take advantage of some early turnovers and play keep away.

Arkansas 27  South Carolina 20

Jimmy: Arkansas (-4.5)

The undercard in the SEC prize fight weekend.  South Carolina has re-written the definition of winning ugly these last two weeks, not needing more than 14 points while manhandling undermanned Mississippi State and Tennessee.  While the Gamecocks defense is solid, Arkansas has been to hell and back after their trip to Tuscaloosa.  Nothing will approach that level of emergency for Tyler Wilson.  Spurrier’s D hasn’t faced a QB with anywhere near Wilson’s talent since Week 2 vs. Georgia, and that was a 45-42 nail-biter they hung on to win.  Squeezing out tight back-to-back victories, albeit versus SEC dregs Ole Miss and Vandy, has given Bobby Petrino’s squad confidence.  With the comfort of playing at home, the Razorbacks prevail with a strong aerial assault.  

Arkansas 33  South Carolina 24

Mike: South Carolina (+4.5)

Phil: Arkansas (-4.5)

Similar game to the OU/Aggie game. I think Arky is the superior team, and they are at home. Spurrier is playing without his prize race horse Lattimore, and Shaw, albeit less turnover prone, is not the stud that Garcia was. This is a bad matchup for South Carolina, and I think Petrino will pour it in. I feel that the last 2 weeks for Arky will serve as  "get focused" games, and they will show up and play to their potential. 

Arky 34 SC 27

LSU (+4.5) at Alabama

Dan: LSU (+4.5)

This one is incredibly tough. Both teams’ defenses are incredible. I was set to take Alabama given that they are home, have a better coach, and a more trustworthy offense. But I have a hard time seeing either of these offense have much success running the football. This feels like it will end up being a knock out, low scoring game and I’m going to take the points. 

Alabama 17 LSU 16

Jeremy: Alabama (-4.5)

2011's version of the Game of the Century.  These two are pretty clearly the best two teams in the country, and I can't say it enough - I wish there was a way we could just set up a 3-game series (home-home-neutral) to crown one of these two squads as the National Champion.

Both Bama and LSU bring suffocating defenses into this game, with the Tide freakishly, consistently great, and the Bayou Bengals frighteningly, ruthlessly amazing.  LSU has been getting by on pure talent on offense this year, but its been working for them.  Bama is still breaking in a green QB, but thus far it hasn't mattered much at all.

In the end, I'm taking the team with the best player (Trent Richardson), the better coach, and the home environment.  Can't wait!

Alabama 23  LSU 13

Jimmy: Alabama (-4.5)

The 2011 heavyweight title bout everybody wanted from Week 3, when it became abundantly clear these were the top teams in the country.  Ferocious tackling and freakish speed will be on display.  A Heisman hopeful lies in the tall grass ready to pounce with a monster effort.  No exaggeration, there’s likely 25 future NFL players (maybe more?) that will play a role in this game.  The Mad Hatter plays checkers to The Sabanator’s game of chess, which isn’t as lopsided as it sounds since Les Miles happens to be a grandmaster at the former.  High probability we remember this game for years to come, for some reason or another.  Verne Lundquist has probably been walking around the last two weeks with a roll of duct tape to keep his chubby in check.  

Ever since I saw Bama pressure and completely fluster a competent Arkansas offense, I can’t shake my feeling that they’re the best team in the country.  The Tide pressure is sure to make Jarrett Lee and/or Jordan Jefferson turtle up in fear and wreak more havoc than the Tigers D, who will have their hands full with Richardson and the balanced Bama attack.

Alabama 24  LSU 14

(Well shucks.  I tried to weave "albeit" organically into all four picks, but came up short in the end, A&M'ing my way into a missed opportunity).

Mike: Alabama (-4.5)

Phil: LSU (+4.5)

The game of the century is here! 1 vs 2. a BCS prelim game, if you will. These 2 teams are undoubtedly the most talented, most complete, most well coached (even LSU), and have the most future pros. Both teams boast stout defenses and steady, pro style offenses that like to pound the ball and have "game-managing" QBs who don't turn the ball over. There are playmakers all over the field on both sides of the ball and this will be a very entertaining game to watch. 

LSU on defense needs to stack the box and stop the run. Auburn, no homer, has provided the blueprint to slowing Alabama's run game the past 2 years, as neither "Rent" Richardson or "Heisman" Ingram ran for anywhere near 100 yards on the Tigers. If Auburn's D Line can slow the run game, I know LSUs can. Mingo, Montgomery, and Adams should be able to have their way the overweight, less athletic Bama offensive tackles. Once the run game is corralled, I feel that McCarron will be hard pressed to beat the likes of Morris Claiborne and Tyrann Mathieu on the outside. The Bama receivers are not game breakers, and the LSU corners are supremely talented with great ball skills. If I am wrong, and AJ McChestTattoo can beat the LSU DBs, then Bama deserves to win. 

LSU on offense needs to open it up on first down. Lee and Jefferson are both experienced and steady and the LSU receiving corps with Randle, Beckam, and Peterson are all above average. Bama boasts and NFL caliber front 7, but their secondary is overrated and vulnerable to the big play. I know the Mad Hatter has some special plays saved up for this game, and I look for the difference to be made with Lee and Randle beating the Bama secondary. GEAUX TIGERS!!!

LSU 23 Bama 20

Bonus Picks

Dan: New Mexico @ San Diego State -34.5

Yes, they are that bad. Worst team in D1 history? It is possible. For the record, they have lost the last 3 weeks by a combined score of 160 – 7 against the likes of Nevada, a weak TCU team, and Air Force. 

San Diego State 49 New Mexico 7

Jeremy: Michigan (-4) at Iowa

The Wolverines are wildly overrated, but things are getting really bad in Hawkeyeland.  Before last weekend, there were legitimate discussions about whether Minnesota was the worst Big Ten team of ALL TIME.  And then they go out and find a way to beat Iowa.  Michigan is lousy, but they've managed to beat up on the dregs of the Big Ten this year, so I fully expect this to continue on Saturday.

Michigan 31  Iowa 20

Jimmy: Virginia (+2.5) @ Maryland

In their last 3 games, the Cavs have wins over Miami (on the road) and Georgia Tech.  Maryland has 2 wins total on the season.  Riding the ACC surprise team in this one.  

Virginia 27  Maryland 20

Mike: Vanderbilt (+13.5) @ Florida

Phil: Kansas State @ Oklahoma State (-21)

Apparently, I picked this game inadvertenly last week. It is a testament to which team is better, that OU was only a 2 TD favorite, whereas the Cowboys are a 3 TD favorite. Here is my recycled pick from last week. Did I mention that I love Brandon Weeden?? 

I have picked the Cowboys every week. I have a huge man crush on Weeden. They score in bundles and they have not let me down this year. Bill Snyder has the Cats playing as if it were the late nineties and Michael Bishop was running amok on the Big 12.  However, I am gonna stick my man Weeden.

Ok St 42 K St 20

Last Week

Dan: 2-4 (+ Lock of the Week)

Jeremy: 3-3 (+)

Jimmy: 4-2 (+)

Mike: 3-3 (+)

Phil: 4-2 (-)

Season to Date

Dan: 30-21 (7-2)

Jeremy: 31-20-1 (5-4)

Jimmy: 29-20-3 (7-2)

Mike: 23-28-1 (5-3-1)

Phil: 25-25-1 (5-3-1)