December 21, 2005


UTEP Miners (8-3) vs. Toledo Rockets (8-3)

Ladd Peebles Stadium - Mobile, AL

Line - UTEP +3


Matt - UTEP +3

The jokes have been played out enough, Mike Price returns to Alabama, can he stay out of the strip clubs, will he be yelling out ROOLLLLLLLL TIIIIIIIIIIDE on the sidelines, does he have a date with destiny tonight. But when it gets down to football, i don't think that Toledo is going to be able to stop Carson's little bro Jordan Palmer tonight. UTEP comes in with the 6th ranked pass offense nationally, and that isn't good news for a team that gave up 300+ yards and 3 td's to another pro prospect in Omar Jacobs at Bowling Green. Meanwhile, UTEP's defense will be challenged by a veteran QB in Bruce Gradkowski and a 1000 yard rusher in Trinity Dawson. I think UTEP will be able to handle a shootout type game, having already won three times against an opponent that hung 30 on them, including C-USA champ Tulsa. And let's hope for Mike Price's sake that the team is jetting out of Mobile right after the game. I'm pretty sure that 'Bama fans are diehard enough to stake out the UTEP hotel and let the "Roll Tide" chants flow all night long.

Prediction - UTEP 36 Toledo 31
Wager - $7.50

Doug - Toledo -3

With all due respect to Mike Price and the brother of my favorite NFL quarterback, I'm going with the Rockets in a lower scoring game than some might imagine. Over/under on this game is 63. Seems like a lot of points to throw down on a bowl game where the teams haven't played in a month. Game time temperature looks to be in the high 30s/low 40s with some wind, so not exactly balmy weather conditions conducive to high-powered offense. Not sure how Palmer will perform in a cold weather atmosphere.

The MAC never gets any hype from the national media because of the small fanbases, but there are some good teams in the league. The MAC Conference always seems to have a nice coming out party at bowl season, so I'll play the odds and say the Rockets make it happen tonight. Toledo has a great rushing attack, and UTEP has pretty much played pedestrian defense all year, especially against the run. I'm expecting a couple turnovers out of Palmer, and think that'll be the difference in the game.

Toledo 27 UTEP 21

Under - 63


Total Offense
UTEP - 18th - 454 ypg
Toledo - 17th - 454 ypg

Pass Offense
UTEP - 5th - 326 ypg
Toledo - 66th - 232

Rush Offense
UTEP - 81st - 127 ypg
Toledo - 12th - 222 ypg

Points Scored
UTEP - 22nd - 33.4
Toledo - 15th - 34.9

Points Allowed
UTEP - 53rd 24.2 ppg
Toledo - 34th 22.5 ppg

Total Defense
UTEP - 53rd 365 ypg
Toled - 22nd 322 ypg

Pass Defense
UTEP - 42nd 204 ypg
Toledo - 27th 191 ypg

Rush Defense
UTEP - 71st 160 ypg
Toledo - 36th 131 ypg


Doug said...

Already looking forward to those bowl picks for tomorrow. First potential parlay for Matt to chew on.

Pretty sure I know how I'm going to bet on one of those games, especially when a certain coach is involved who has achieved legendary status in my heart.

Doug said...

In case anyone out there reading thinks I'm a pansy for not betting on every game like Matt is doing, I'll officially start wagering on every game next Tuesday (beginning with that Clemson-Colorado game). Might mix in a bet before that, but planning to drain my account (or hopefully double it) starting next week.